Well we are packing it in on ARIS. Bulls and Bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.
We are selling ARIS after 10 years. It has been like watching moss grow, but we will book a 210% gain.
Nothing wrong that we see here, and only selling 1/3 of our personal holdings. We will hold the rest and see what happens.
Well we finally got back to breakeven for the year after the January “freeze”.
We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.
Of our closed out positions since inception, we had 67 winners, 16 losers for an 81% win-rate with an average gain of 37%.
June 2016 Performance:
| Index | June | YTD |
| Dow | 0.8% | 2.9% |
| Nasdaq | -2.1% | -3.3% |
| CSI | 2.4% | 0.4% |
Our 13 new private client stock positions (including 2 sold positions) are up 2.4% for the year.
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | Prior | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | 1.61 | 4.20 | 161% | -6.7% | $ 6.46 | 65% | $ 6.40 |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 7.02 | 53% | 9.9% | $ 11.72 | 60% | $ 13.68 |
| BLIN | 3.95 | 1.06 | -73% | -6.2% | $ 2.06 | 52% | $ 4.40 |
| DXMM | SOLD 5/2/2016 | -98% | 0.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 3.08 | 20% | 76.0% | $ 6.23 | 49% | $ 6.86 |
| EXTR | 3.43 | 3.39 | -1% | -16.9% | $ 7.48 | 45% | $ 8.76 |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 3.10 | -23% | -19.3% | $ 7.11 | 44% | $ 10.68 |
| ATEC | 0.59 | 0.35 | -41% | 16.7% | $ 2.43 | 14% | $ 2.26 |
| AVID | 8.35 | 5.81 | -30% | -20.3% | $ 28.44 | 20% | $ 23.50 |
| CRNT | 1.38 | 1.62 | 18% | 33.9% | $ 3.24 | 50% | $ 3.97 |
| CKP | BUYOUT 3/2/2016 | 48% | 60.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| MTSL | SOLD 3/29/2016 | -9% | 34.1% | NA | NA | NA | |
| GSL | 3.09 | 1.27 | -59% | -51.2% | $ 3.00 | 42% | $ 3.00 |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | |||||||
May continued our rebound from the horrible January, but we are still down 1.9% for the year.
SYNC soared in May with the announcement that they won a $100 million a year contract with AT+T. While the stock doubled, we think it has a ways to go yet. The positive impact won’t be seen until 2017 so it may pause here for a while. Still very cheap.
CCUR is still being pushed by Julian Singer to do something—like sell the company. It may get nasty.
We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.
Of our closed out positions since inception, we had 67 winners, 16 losers for an 81% win-rate with an average gain of 37%.
May 2016 Performance:
| Index | May | YTD |
| Dow | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| Nasdaq | 3.4% | -1.2% |
| CSI | 1.7% | -1.9% |
Our 11 new private client stock positions (including 2 sold positions) are up 3.5% for the year.
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | Prior | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | 1.61 | 3.86 | 139% | -14.2% | $ 6.46 | 60% | $ 6.40 |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 8.18 | 79% | 28.0% | $ 11.72 | 70% | $ 13.68 |
| BLIN | 3.95 | 0.75 | -81% | -33.6% | $ 2.06 | 36% | $ 4.40 |
| DXMM | SOLD 5/2/2016 | -98% | 0.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 3.11 | 21% | 77.7% | $ 6.23 | 50% | $ 6.86 |
| EXTR | 3.43 | 3.69 | 8% | -9.6% | $ 7.48 | 49% | $ 8.76 |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 3.33 | -17% | -13.3% | $ 7.11 | 47% | $ 10.68 |
| ATEC | 0.59 | 0.21 | -65% | -31.0% | $ 2.43 | 9% | $ 2.26 |
| AVID | 8.35 | 5.95 | -29% | -18.4% | $ 28.44 | 21% | $ 23.50 |
| CRNT | 1.38 | 1.74 | 27% | 43.8% | $ 3.24 | 54% | $ 3.97 |
| CKP | BUYOUT 3/2/2016 | 48% | 60.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| MTSL | SOLD 3/29/2016 | -9% | 34.1% | NA | NA | NA | |
| GSL | 3.09 | 1.64 | -47% | -36.9% | $ 3.00 | 55% | $ 3.00 |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | |||||||
Looks like the lenders are taking it all. Take the loss if you haven’t already. It was a bad risky bet. Too much debt. Never again.
April continued our rebound from the horrible January, but we are still down 3.6% for the year.
We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.
Of our closed out positions since inception, we had 67 winners, 15 losers for an 82% win-rate with an average gain of 37%.
April 2016 Performance:
| Index | April | YTD |
| Dow | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| Nasdaq | -1.9% | -4.6% |
| CSI | 0.4% | -3.6% |
Our 8 new private client stock positions are down 1.2% for the year.
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | Prior | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | 1.61 | 4.19 | 160% | -6.9% | $ 6.46 | 65% | $ 6.40 |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 7.74 | 69% | 21.1% | $ 13.68 | 57% | $ 12.45 |
| BLIN | 3.95 | 0.87 | -78% | -23.0% | $ 4.40 | 20% | $ 6.02 |
| DXM | 6.46 | 0.13 | -98% | 8.3% | NA | NA | NA |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 1.46 | -43% | -16.6% | $ 5.20 | 28% | $ 5.06 |
| EXTR | 3.43 | 3.51 | 2% | -14.0% | $ 7.48 | 47% | $ 8.76 |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 3.64 | -9% | -5.2% | $ 10.68 | 34% | $ 7.97 |
| ATEC | 0.59 | 0.23 | -61% | -23.3% | $ 2.26 | 10% | $ 1.82 |
| AVID | 8.35 | 5.58 | -33% | -23.5% | $ 23.50 | 24% | $ 23.99 |
| CRNT | 1.38 | 1.20 | -13% | -0.8% | $ 3.97 | 30% | $ 5.96 |
| CKP | BUYOUT 3/2/2016 | 48% | 60.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| MTSL | SOLD 3/29/2016 | -9% | 34.1% | NA | NA | NA | |
| GSL | 3.09 | 2.29 | -26% | -11.9% | $ 3.00 | 76% | $ 3.00 |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | |||||||
March continued the recovery from January and February. We are still lagging the averages. In March we sold CKP on the buy-out and MTSL on a declining valuation and liquidity issues.
We are updating our open position portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.
March 2016 Performance:
| Index | March | YTD |
| Dow | 6.7% | 1.5% |
| Nasdaq | 6.2% | -2.7% |
| CSI | 4.1% | -4.0% |
Our 7 new stock positions are down 1.3% for the year.
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | 1.61 | 4.39 | 172% | -2.4% | $ 6.46 | 68% |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 7.58 | 66% | 18.6% | $ 13.68 | 55% |
| BLIN | 3.95 | 0.82 | -79% | -27.4% | $ 4.40 | 19% |
| DXM | 6.46 | 0.09 | -99% | -25.0% | NA | NA |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 1.40 | -45% | -20.0% | $ 5.20 | 27% |
| EXTR | 3.43 | 3.11 | -9% | -23.8% | $ 8.76 | 36% |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 3.69 | -8% | -3.9% | $ 10.68 | 35% |
| ATEC | 0.59 | 0.24 | -59% | -20.0% | $ 2.26 | 11% |
| AVID | 8.35 | 6.76 | -19% | -7.3% | $ 23.50 | 29% |
| CRNT | 1.38 | 1.27 | -8% | 5.0% | $ 3.97 | 32% |
| CKP | BUYOUT 3/2/2016 | 48% | 60.0% | NA | NA | |
| MTSL | SOLD 3/29/2016 | -9% | 34.1% | NA | NA | |
| GSL | 3.09 | 1.15 | -63% | -55.8% | $ 3.00 | 38% |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | ||||||
MTSL announced earnings last week. Not as good as we had hoped. Our valuation fell to $2.34 from $2.89. Given the liquidity issues and thin trading we will take our 9% loss on this and move on.
CKP got a buyout deal today at $10.15 a share. While this is way below our $18 valuation, we will book our 45% or so gain in under 6 months and be happy to make some money in this market.
Well February was certainly better that January. There are still irrational stock prices out there, but some prices have come all the way back, but there is still a long way to go.
We are updating our open position portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.
February 2016 Performance:
| Index | February | YTD |
| Dow | 0.3% | -5.2% |
| Nasdaq | -1.1% | -9.0% |
| CSI | 1.0% | -8.1% |
Our 5 new stock positions are actually up 4.3% for the year.
Nothing much has changed with our opinions on our open positions. CRNT announced earning in February. Our valuation went down to $3.97 from $4.54 as the company is foregoing chasing low margin sales for more profits. We still think CRNT is way too cheap.
GSL dropped a bomb on us this morning. They had good earnings, but instead of increasing their dividend as previously announced—they eliminated it altogether. This will be a long haul here, a year or two at least. Lesson learned—again—don’t ever buy a British company with a CEO named Ian. This is my second one that bombed.
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | 1.61 | 4.14 | 157% | -8.0% | $ 6.40 | 65% |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 6.94 | 52% | 8.6% | $ 12.45 | 56% |
| BLIN | 3.95 | 0.90 | -77% | -20.4% | $ 6.02 | 15% |
| DXM | 6.46 | 0.03 | -100% | -75.0% | NA | NA |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 1.77 | -31% | 1.1% | $ 5.20 | 34% |
| EXTR | 3.43 | 2.82 | -18% | -30.9% | $ 8.76 | 32% |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 3.68 | -8% | -4.2% | $ 7.97 | 46% |
| ATEC | 0.59 | 0.19 | -68% | -36.7% | $ 1.82 | 10% |
| AVID | 8.35 | 7.65 | -8% | 4.9% | $ 23.99 | 32% |
| CRNT | 1.38 | 1.10 | -20% | -9.1% | $ 3.97 | 28% |
| CKP | 6.76 | 7.51 | 11% | 19.8% | $ 17.98 | 42% |
| MTSL | 1.25 | 0.80 | -36% | -5.9% | $ 2.89 | 28% |
| GSL | 3.09 | 2.12 | -31% | -18.5% | $ 6.00 | 35% |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | ||||||
2016 has certainly been a rough year so far. We have seen what we think are a lot of irrational stock prices, but some sanity seemed to come back last week, but there is still a long way to go.
We are updating our open position portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.
January 2016 Performance:
| Index | January | YTD |
| Dow | -5.5% | -5.5% |
| Nasdaq | -7.9% | -7.9% |
| CSI | -9.1% | -9.1% |
Our 3 new stock positions mirrored NASDAQ, down 7.9%.
Nothing much has changed with our opinion on our open positions. EXTR announced earnings in January that met expectations and gave next quarter guidance that met expectations, but it got hammered last week. Our updated valuation is $8.76 and $7.38 based on next quarter guidance. DXM looks like a total loss, but the negotiations with creditors are still in progress.
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | 1.61 | 3.76 | 133% | -16.4% | $ 6.40 | 59% |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 6.50 | 42% | 1.7% | $ 12.45 | 52% |
| BLIN | 0.79 | 0.89 | 13% | -21.2% | $ 6.02 | 15% |
| DXM | 6.46 | 0.03 | -100% | -75.0% | NA | NA |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 1.62 | -37% | -7.4% | $ 5.20 | 31% |
| EXTR | 3.43 | 2.76 | -20% | -32.4% | $ 8.76 | 32% |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 3.66 | -9% | -4.7% | $ 7.97 | 46% |
| ATEC | 0.59 | 0.43 | -28% | 41.7% | $ 1.82 | 23% |
| AVID | 8.35 | 7.10 | -15% | -2.6% | $ 23.99 | 30% |
| CRNT | 1.38 | 1.26 | -8% | 4.1% | $ 4.54 | 28% |
| CKP | 6.76 | 6.48 | -4% | 3.3% | $ 17.98 | 36% |
| MTSL | 1.25 | 0.77 | -38% | -9.4% | $ 2.89 | 27% |
| GSL | 3.09 | 1.75 | -43% | -32.7% | $ 6.00 | 29% |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | ||||||
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