Cheap Stock Weekly Update May 26th 2014

We were down .5% last week driven by a 7.5% loss in ARIS in which we are over-weighted. We are now up 3% for the year. The DOW was up .3% and NASDAQ was up 1.0%. For the year, the DOW is down .2% and NASDAQ is down 1.1%

No earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

UNTD 45%
CCUR 28%
SIGM 76%
MRVC 17%
SYNC 51%

 PRSS, MRVC, DAEG, EXTR and UNTD can still be bought.

Last week we went 6 stocks up and 8 down. Since inception we are now 68 stocks up and 17 down for a 80.0% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions, 59 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 34% average net gain per position.

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:  Continue reading

Advertisements

CSI Update: BUY CaféPress Inc. (NASDAQ–PRSS)

Valuation-$11.27

Price May 19, 2014, 2014-$5.40

PRSS is a little different than our usual picks. Although it is an online business, it basically sells T-Shirts and things. Nevertheless, we have been watching it for a while and think this is a good entry point. I own PRSS.

Latest earnings were for the quarter ended 3/31/2014. Nothing to write home about. Revenues were down from $52.5 million to $48.2 million and they lost $5.2 million versus a $4 million loss last year. Like most “retailers” their business is somewhat seasonal. They are projecting around $250 million of sales for 2014 and breakeven to a loss of $.12 a share on a Non-GAAP basis. Our valuation based on the latest quarter is $11.27 a share. If they hit their guidance, it is over $16 a share.

Back in February, PRSS announced that they had hired Raymond James & Associates to help them pursue “strategic alternatives”. We think PRSS could be sold for a premium to the current stock price, if a buyer can be found.

Trading at only 48% of our valuation we think this is a BUY..

There are about 17 million shares outstanding and it trades about 45,000 shares a day.

About PRSS: Continue reading

CSI Update: HOLD Bridgeline Digital

BLIN announced Q2 2014 earnings (quarter ended March 31, 2014) on May 15th. Ug. Revenues were $5.3 million down from $6 million last year. GAAP net loss was $.13 a share, compared to a loss of $.05 per share last year. Non-GAAP loss was $.07 per share compared to breakeven last year. Our valuation fell to $1.74 up from $1.83 last quarter. BLIN is trading at about 45% of our valuation. BLIN management expressed how disappointed they were at these results. No kidding. We were too. Their backlog was a healthy $20 million ($12.2 million booked this past quarter) but the $7 million deal they recently signed won’t kick in until FY 2015 (2 more quarters. They also alluded to signing another multiyear, multi-million dollar deal this quarter (which is half over). Until then they are projecting about $6 million a quarter. We are still believers here but this is no longer a BUY. We will give them another couple of quarters but we are reducing this to a HOLD for now.

CSI Update: HOLD Synacor Inc.

SYNC announced Q1 2014 earnings after the close on May 13. Revenues were $25.2 million down from $29.1 million last year. Net loss was $.07 per share compared to break even last year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $.7 million compared to positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 million last year. Not a great quarter.

Our valuation fell to $5.44 from $5.94 last quarter. Cash was $1.17 per share, more than 50% of the current market cap.

SYNC is trading at about 42% of our valuation. We will HOLD for now and see how the next couple of quarters look. Any signs of a turnaround and we think this stock will soar. A buy out is always a possibility.

It’s earnings season! I will be updating the blog more frequently during this time. If you don’t want to miss out, be sure to click the “follow” button on the left side of the page.

Cheap Stock Weekly Update May 13th 2014

Despite double digit gains in TSYS and DXM, we still we down 2.1% last week, cutting our YTD gain to 2.8%. Small caps got hit last week.. The DOW was up .4% and NASDAQ was down 1.3%. For the year, the DOW is even and NASDAQ is down 2.8%

DEX, MRVC and XRSC earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

UNTD 45%
CCUR 28%
SIGM 73%
MRVC 18%
SYNC 59%

BLIN, DAEG, EXTR and UNTD can still be bought.

Last week we went 2 stocks up and 11 down. Since inception we are now 67stocks up and 18 down for a 78.8% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions 59 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 34% average net gain per position.

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions: Continue reading

CSI Update: HOLD MRVC

MRVC announced Q1 results on May 8th. Revenues were $42.3 million up 9% from $38.9 million last year. GAAP net loss was $.58 a share, compared to a loss of $.59 per share last year. Non-GAAP loss was about $3.0 million compared to $4.4 million last year.  Our valuation fell to $23.19 from $25.49 last quarter but up slightly from $23.19 last year. MRVC is trading at about 50% of our valuation.  We will continue to HOLD as results showed continued losses, but sales continued to grow nicely,

CSI Update: HOLD XRSC

XRSC announced Q2 2014 earnings (quarter ended March 31, 2014) on May 8th. Revenues were $12.8 million down from $14.5 million last year. XRSC is a bit similar to BLIN as they are transitioning their legacy software business to a subscription based service and revenues take a hit as they don’t book a big software sale upfront, but rather record it monthly in smaller pieces. But subscription based revenues are generally worth more to a buyer than one-time sales. GAAP net loss was $.07 a share, compared to a gain of $.01 per share last year. Non-GAAP earnings were $1.2 million or $.04 per share compared to $2.2 million or $.08 a share last year. Our valuation rose to $5.60 up from $5.57 last quarter. XRSC is trading at about 50% of our valuation. We will continue to HOLD as results were not that exciting, but the valuation is still compelling.