CSI Update March 2018, Private Subscriptions

We stopped publishing our free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. We are following our 4 remaining open positions until the end.

In late 2015 we started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Blog, but we tell you exactly what stocks we bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares we own and their valuations.

I have averaged a 41.8% gain on the 26 stocks I have sold (24 winners and 2 small losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Nine of the 25 stocks have been bought out, including six in 2017 and one already in 2018.

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com.

Here is the list of private subscription stocks I have bought and sold since December 2015.

2018 Pitney Bowes 31% gain

2018 Calix-1% gain

2018 Xerox-34% gain, Buy-Out

2018 RMG Networks-1% gain

2017 Telecommunications company-59% gain (partial sale)

2017 magicJack 17% gain, Buy-Out

2017 eGain 56% gain

2017 YUME 90% gain, Buy-Out

2017 MaxPoint Interactive 60% gain

2017 Shortel 24% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Tremor Video 25% gain

2017 MRV Communications 6% loss, Buy-Out

2017 Ceragon Networks 55% gain

2017 Angie’s List 60% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Lantronix 135% gain

2017 Syneron Medical 46% gain, Buy-Out

2017 RocketFuel 140% gain

2017 Conduent .1% gain

2017 Harmonic 74% gain

2016 Ceragon Networks 48% gain

2016 Alphatec 71% gain

2016 Universal Insurance 36% gain

2016 Mitel Networks 15% gain

2016 Avid Technology 50% gain

2016 Silicon Graphics 70% gain, Buy-Out

2016 Imatron 30% gain

2016 Harmonic 80% gain

2016 United Online 5% loss, Buy-Out

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CSI Update March 2018 Free Blog

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 71 winners, 18 losers for an 80% win-rate with an average gain of 37%.

We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually until they are all sold.

In March:

AVID reported Q4 2017 earnings. Not bad, but certainly not exciting. Revenues were $107 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $15 million and adjusted Net income was about $6.5 million. Net debt increased by just under $1 million to $153 million. My valuation increased to $17.74 up from $16.95 last quarter. Based on Q1 and 2018 year guidance my valuations are $15.59 and $17.51 respectively. While this is still a great value, I am not seeing anything that will get anyone excited and move the stock price. They need to sell the company to realize value for shareholders. BUY.

SYNC announced Q4 earnings. The earnings were not bad, revenue of $46 million the highest in the company’s history, and adjusted EBITDA was $3.6 million compared to $1.2 million last year, but the outlook really stunk. They guided Q1 at revenues of $30-$32 million and adjusted EBITDA of $.5 to $1 million and guided for 2018 revenue of $150-$155 million and adjusted EBITDA of $7 to $10 million. What happened to the $100 million a year AT&T contract? Before AT&T they were doing about $127 million a year in revenue. So the AT&T contract is looking like only $25 million a year. They said that they are assuming AT&T will continue “ to prioritize the customer experience” and not revenue in 2018. So we may never see more revenue. Hopefully they are being conservative in their guidance after being burned so many times in the past. While my valuation for Q4 was $6.46 versus the prior quarter $5.81, based on their guidance my valuations would fall to $4.20 to $5.07 for Q1 and 2018 respectively. Not a great trend but still a good value. HOLD.

ATEC announced Q4 earnings. Commercial revenues were $20.9 million compared to $20.7 million last year. They lost about $2.7 million on an adjusted basis. Net debt looks like it came down to $44 million from $50 million last quarter. My valuation fell slightly to $5.78 from $5.93 last quarter. HOLD.

 March 2018 Legacy Positions:

                  Share      Current      Lifetime      Current      Price to     Prior

 Stock         Cost          Price          Gain            Value         Value      Value

SYNC           $2.56        $1.60           (38%)              $6.46         25%         $5.81

PRSS           $4.01         $1.35           (66%)             $7.77          17%        $5.37

ATEC          $7.06         $3.31            (55%)             $5.78         56%         $5.93

AVID           $8.35        $4.54            (46%)           $17.74         26%        $16.95

 

 

 

CSI Update-February 2018 Private Subscriptions

We stopped publishing our free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. We are following our 4 remaining open positions until the end.

In late 2015 we started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Blog, but we tell you exactly what stocks we bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares we own and their valuations.

I have averaged a 42.2% gain on the 25 stocks I have sold (23 winners and 2 small losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Nine of the 25 stocks have been bought out, including six in 2017 and one already in 2018.

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com.

Here is the list of private subscription stocks I have bought and sold since December 2015. These are listed by last sold date.

2018 Calix-1% gain

2018 Xerox-34% gain, Buy-Out

2018 RMG Networks-1% gain

2017 Telecommunications company-59% gain (partial sale)

2017 magicJack 17% gain, Buy-Out

2017 eGain 56% gain

2017 YUME 90% gain, Buy-Out

2017 MaxPoint Interactive 60% gain

2017 Shortel 24% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Tremor Video 25% gain

2017 MRV Communications 6% loss, Buy-Out

2017 Ceragon Networks 55% gain

2017 Angie’s List 60% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Lantronix 135% gain

2017 Syneron Medical 46% gain, Buy-Out

2017 RocketFuel 140% gain

2017 Conduent .1% gain

2017 Harmonic 74% gain

2016 Ceragon Networks 48% gain

2016 Alphatec 71% gain

2016 Universal Insurance 36% gain

2016 Mitel Networks 15% gain

2016 Avid Technology 50% gain

2016 Silicon Graphics 70% gain, Buy-Out

2016 Imatron 30% gain

2016 Harmonic 80% gain

2016 United Online 5% loss, Buy-Out

CSI Update-February 2018 Free Blog

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 71 winners, 18 losers for an 80% win-rate with an average gain of 37%.

We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually until they are all sold.

In February:

AVID fired its CEO in late February for improper workplace conduct. They appointed their Chief Sales and Marketing guy as the new CEO. The stock did not react to the news. BUY

SYNC will announce earnings in March. They already have said they are expecting sequential sales growth of 28-40% for Q4 2017 as the $100 million AT+T contract finally kicks in. SYNC is trading at about .5 times revenue. It astounds me that this is trading at $2.00.  CHEAP!  BUY

ATEC is still turning around. Q4 earnings will be announced on March 8th. Hold.

PRSS announced Q4 2017 earnings. No sign of the successful turnaround yet. Revenues were $34 million down from $44 million last year and they lost $100,000 versus making $2.9 million last year. Our valuation fell from $10.15 last December to $7.77. They burned about $10 million of cash in 2017 and have about $32 million left ($1.92 a share). So it is trading for less than cash value, but that cash is dropping and the business is still not profitable even in their strongest quarter of the year. This is still a weak HOLD.

 February 2018 Legacy Positions:

                  Share      Current      Lifetime      Current      Price to     Prior

 Stock         Cost          Price          Gain            Value         Value       Value

SYNC           $2.56       $2.00           (22%)               $5.81         34%         $5.32

PRSS           $4.01        $1.52           (62%)               $7.77         20%         $5.37

ATEC          $7.06        $3.19            (55%)              $5.93         54%         $7.42

AVID           $8.35       $4.79            (43%)              $16.95        28%       $16.50

 

CSI Update January 2018-Private Subscriptions

We stopped publishing our free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. We are following our 4 remaining open positions until the end.

In late 2015 we started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Blog, but we tell you exactly what stocks we bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares we own and their valuations.

I have averaged a 43.8% gain on the 24 stocks I have sold (22 winners and 2 small losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Nine of the 24 stocks have been bought out, including six in 2017 and one already in 2018.

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com.

Here is the list of private subscription stocks I have bought and sold since December 2015. These are listed by last sold date.

2018 Xerox-34% gain, Buy-Out

2018 RMG Networks-1% gain

2017 Telecommunications company-59% gain (partial sale)

2017 magicJack 17% gain, Buy-Out

2017 eGain 56% gain

2017 YUME 90% gain, Buy-Out

2017 MaxPoint Interactive 60% gain

2017 Shortel 24% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Tremor Video 25% gain

2017 MRV Communications 6% loss, Buy-Out

2017 Ceragon Networks 55% gain

2017 Angie’s List 60% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Lantronix 135% gain

2017 Syneron Medical 46% gain, Buy-Out

2017 RocketFuel 140% gain

2017 Conduent .1% gain

2017 Harmonic 74% gain

2016 Ceragon Networks 48% gain

2016 Alphatec 71% gain

2016 Universal Insurance 36% gain

2016 Mitel Networks 15% gain

2016 Avid Technology 50% gain

2016 Silicon Graphics 70% gain, Buy-Out

2016 Imatron 30% gain

2016 Harmonic 80% gain

2016 United Online 5% loss, Buy-Out