Happy New Year

Sometimes good things come in bunches. Even in a holiday shortened week we tacked on 6% to our 2006 gain. With “only” a 15.4% gain we still managed to beat NASDAQ and the S+P 500, but not the roaring DOW. Not a great year by our standards, and below the 25% we have averaged over the previous 15 years, but at least respectable.

Last week we went 11 up, 3 down and 1 even last week. DWCH is still our biggest dog followed by PARL, MIVA, INFT, LINN.ob MOBI and ARIS.ob. For the year we ended at 12 stocks up and 7 down. We sold 4 stocks (NTCT, ONXS, DTLK, CAW) for an average gain of 28%.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Up $.10 to $11.29 last week. No news. Shorts are still mucking around with SPNC. Up 6% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86). Closed at $8.39, up $.33. Trading at only 61% of valuation. Has $1.03 in cash also. Up 21% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.14, down $.19. No news. Now up 4%. BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.38, down $.09. No news. Now down 11%. HOLD.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, NEW Valuation $7.50 (was $7.63, $9.31)). Closed at $2.60, down $.02, now down 29%. HOLD.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Up $.04 to $3.76. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 9%. BUY.

MOBI-(Buy price $7.08, Valuation $12.69). Up $.12 to $6.65. No news. Down 6%. BUY.

RITT-(Buy price $1.00, Valuation $2.69). Closed up $.29 at $1.42 last week. On Friday it even got up to $1.57 but couldn’t hold there. Looks like some of the value here is starting to be recognized. Let’s hope next week brings more of the same. Up 42%. HOLD.

PARL-(Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77). PARL closed at $5.57, up $.22 last week. January could bring some real action as Mr. Nussdorf trys to replace the current management. There seems to be too many catalysts for this to stay down for long. Down 16%. This remains a BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)). Closed at $2.00, up $.05 last week. This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down 3% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.33, up $.03 last week. Still trading at only 53% of our current valuation. Down 8% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, NEW Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)). Closed at $1.45, up $.02. Has $.44 in cash per share also. So now we have a 16% gain. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.50, unchanged. Now up 26%. No news. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price jumped $.04 to $.32. Closed at $.30. Cash is (was) $.24 per share. Last Friday CTI announced the purchase of Ryder Systems LTD. an international provider of electronic and on-line billing solutions and developer of VoIP business applications. On Friday they filed an 8-K, with details of the financing they got to fund the $11 million purchase–but still no details of what they bought. Price action last week is either some rebound from tax selling, or maybe someone knows what they bought–will have to wait to see. Now up 19% so far (based on ask price). HOLD until we see what we just bought.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed up $.15 at $2.33, up 22% to date. No news on the “take-over”, or the pay-off of their bank debt which was supposed to happen by the end of the year. Price action on Friday looked good, but no info to go on yet. HOLD.

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Merry Christmas

That’s all we can say right now. We went 8 up, 5 down and 2 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, moved down 1% to 9.4% over the past week. DWCH is still our biggest dog followed by PARL, LINN.ob, MIVA, INFT, MOBI and ARIS.ob. Since the start of the year we are 12 up and 7 down.

CTI news last week.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Up $.20 to $11.19 last week. No news. Shorts are still at it. They drove the price down into the mid-$10 range again, but couldn’t keep it there. Let’s hope for a good quarter and some new all-time highs. Up 5% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86). Closed at $8.06, up $.01. Trading at only 59% of valuation. Has $1.03 in cash also. Up 16% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.33, down $1.20. No significant news, so maybe it is tax selling and funds cleaning up their year-end portfolios that is hammering the stock. Now up 5%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.47, up $.17. No news. Now down only 9% so far. HOLD.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, NEW Valuation $7.50 (was $7.63, $9.31)). Closed at $2.62, up $.07, now down 28%. HOLD.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Up $.02 to $3.72. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 10%. BUY.

MOBI-(Buy price $7.08, Valuation $12.69). Down another $.38 to $6.53. No news. After a strong start–now a loser, down 8%. BUY.

RITT-(Buy price $1.00, Valuation $2.69). Closed down $.07 at $1.13 last week. Up 13%. No news. HOLD.

PARL-(Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77). PARL closed at $5.35, up $.08 last week. SEC filing on Friday by Mr. Nussdorf trying to throw out the current Board of Directors. We are voting with him. There seems to be too many catalysts for this to stay down for long. Down 20%. This remains a BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)). Closed at $1.95, up $.05 last week. This stock is still illiquid so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down 5% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.30, even last week. Still trading at only 48% of our current valuation. Down 17% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, NEW Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)). Closed at $1.43, down $.01. Has $.44 in cash per share also. So now we have a 14% gain. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.50, down $.08. Now up 26%. No news. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price unchanged at $.28. Closed at $.26. Cash is $.24 per share. On Friday CTI announced the purchase of Ryder Systems LTD. an international provider of electronic and on-line billing solutions and developer of VoIP business applications. No financial details provided at this point, but the cost of the purchase is $11 million. Now up 4% so far (based on ask price). BUY if you can find some shares.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed up $.035 at $2.185, up 14% to date. Another “collaberation” deal announced but no news on the “take-over”. Just have to wait. HOLD.

Ugg

That’s all we can say right now. We went 5 up, 9 down and 1 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, moved down .9% to 10.4% over the past week. DWCH is now our biggest dog followed by PARL, LINN.ob, MIVA, INFT, ARIS.ob and MOBI. Since the start of the year we are 12 up and 7 down.

OPTIO earnings last week.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Dropped $.51 to $10.99 last week. No news. Shorts are still at it. I saw SPNC trade 100 shares at $.03 below the bid (100 shares also) several times last week as they continued to play their games. Up 3% so far. BUY

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86). Closed at $8.05, up $.12. Trading at only 59% of valuation. Has $1.03 in cash also. Up 16% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $21.53, down $.84. Only good pipeline and Avastin news–still went down. Now up 12%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.30, up $.05. No news. Down 13% so far. HOLD.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, NEW Valuation $7.50 (was $7.63, $9.31)). Closed at $2.55, down $.19, now down 30%. HOLD.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Down $.07 to $3.70. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 10%. BUY.

MOBI-(Buy price $7.08, Valuation $12.69). Down $.17 to $6.91. No news. After a strong start–now a loser, down 2%. BUY.

RITT-(Buy price $1.00, Valuation $2.69). Closed down $.03 at $1.20 last week. Up 20%. No news. HOLD.

PARL-(Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77). PARL closed at $5.27, down $.18 last week. Disappointment over the Perry Ellis sale price and no news on any take-over has just left this drifting for now. There seems to be too many catalysts for this to stay down for long. Down 21%. This remains a BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)). Closed at $1.90, down $.15 last week. This stock is still illiquid so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down 8% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.30, up $.04 last week. Still trading at only 48% of our current valuation. Down 17% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, NEW Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)). Closed at $1.44, up $.11. Volume on earnings day was very nice. Has $.44 in cash per share also. So now we have a 15% gain. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.58, down $.11. Now up 33%. No news. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price moved up $.02 to $.28. Closed at $.25. Cash is $.24 per share. Now up 4% so far (based on ask price). BUY if you can find some shares.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed unchanged at $2.15, up 13% to date. No news on the “take-over”. Just have to wait. HOLD.

Optio Software Inc.

OPTO.ob announced Q3 (Oct. 31) earnings this morning. Not bad at all. Revenues up 7% YOY, and they made a profit! They earned $1.088 million or $.04 per share, but that included a $900,000 profit on the Note they collected after the end of the quarter. Still, they were profitable even after excluding this one-time gain.

Sales growing, profitable, $10 million in cash (after Note collection), no debt and a new valuation of $2.89 a share, up from $2.66. We like it.

Hopefully some other investors will notice too. We are not even at 50% of fair value.

BUY if you don’t have some already.

Running in place

We went 6 up, 7 down and 2 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, moved up 1.3% to 11.3% over the past 2 weeks. LINN.ob is now our biggest dog followed by, DWCH, PARL, MIVA, INFT and CTIG.ob and ARIS.ob. Since the start of the year we are 11 up and 7 down. Mini-caps continue to lag way behind the market.

PARL news last week.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

Price changes in this update are over the last 2 weeks.

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Rebounded $.55 to $11.50 since our last update 2 weeks ago. No news, just oversold. Up 8% so far. HOLD

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86). Closed at $7.93, down $.15. Trading at only 58% of valuation. Has $1.03 in cash also. Up 14% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $22.37, down $.86. Pretty quiet-no news. Now up 16%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.25, down $.15. No news. Down 15% so far. HOLD.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, NEW Valuation $7.50 (was $7.63, $9.31)). Closed at $2.74, up $.79,now down “only” 25%. HOLD.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Up $.08 to $3.77. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 8%. BUY.

MOBI-(Buy price $7.08, Valuation $12.69). Down $.09 to $7.08. No news. Back to dead even on this one. BUY.

RITT-(Buy price $1.00, Valuation $2.69). Closed up $.21 at $1.23 over the last 2 weeks. Up 23%. No news. HOLD.

PARL-(Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77). PARL announced that they were selling the Perry Ellis brand back to–Perry Ellis for $63 million in cash. The good news is that this price is about $3 per share in cash, the bad news is that is was less than 50% of what they had it sold for a month or 2 ago until Perris Ellis nixxed that deal. Stock got hammered down to $5.45 late last week so we are down 18% right out of the box. The PE brand contributed 43% of PARL sales in the year ended March 31, 2006, but only 31% of Q1 (June 2006) sales. PE brand sales were down significantly in Q1 and PARL’s other brands grew fast enough to offset this sales decline and still grow 20% overall. We re-ran our valuation with the $63 million in sale proceeds and knocked $50 million off our FY2007 sales estimates and came up with an estimated valuation of $13.35 a share. With possible offers to be taken private in the background and a good valuation regardless of such a transaction, this remains a BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, NEW Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)). Closed at $2.05, down $.07 last week. This stock is still illiquid so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down 1% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.26, unchanged over the last 2 weeks. Still trading at only 42% of our current valuation. Down 28% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.33, down $.15. Couldn’t hold the $1.50 level, so we drift back down. So now we have only a 6% gain. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.70, up $.17. Now up 43%. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, NEW Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price stayed the same at $.26. Closed at $.26. Cash is $.24 per share. Now down 4% so far (based on asked price). BUY if you can find some shares.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.04 at $2.15, up 13% to date. Not much news on the “take-over” over the last 2 weeks, other than it is still in the works. Announced a new contract signing last week also. HOLD.