Cheap Stocks, 9/25/2015 Update

We were down 3.7% last week and are now down 6.1% for the year. Meanwhile, the DOW was down .4% and the NASDAQ was down 2.9%. For the year the DOW is down 8.1% and NASDAQ is now down 1.1%.

No earnings last week. The wild gain in Daeg last week was pretty much a fiction. From $.34 to $1.17 didn’t last. But the stock did increase from $.34 to $.45.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

CCUR 46%
SYNC 61%
CTIG 43%
PRSS 61%

MTSL, CKP, CRNT, ATEC, AVID, DAEG and SYNC, can still be bought.

Last week we went 3 stocks up and 12 down. Since inception we are now 70 stocks up and 21 down for a 76.9% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).  Of our closed-out positions 64 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 83% win percentage and a 35% average net gain per position.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

MER Telemanagement Systems. (NASDAQ-MTSL)-Recommended 9/22/2015)

Buy Price $1.25

Valuation $3.56

Closed down $.05 at $1.20

Down 2%

BUY

Checkpoint Systems Inc. (NYSE-CKP)-Recommended 9/16/2015)

Buy Price $7.79

Valuation $18.28

Closed down $.17 at $7.46

Down 4%

BUY

Ceregon Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ-CRNT)-Recommended 8/20/2015)

Buy Price $1.46

Valuation $4.84

Closed down $.02 at $1.59

UP 9%

BUY

Avid Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ-AVID)-Recommended 1/20/2015)

Buy Price $10.25 (Was $14 before 8/15 double up at $8.08.

Valuation $22.24 (Was $22.59 $23.86, $28.10)

Closed down $.53 at $8.10

AVID announced Q2 2015 earnings (quarter ended June 30, 2015) on 8/10/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-announces-financial-results-second-203852725.html

Revenues were $110 million down from $125 million last year. They made a Non-GAAP profit of $.05 per share versus a $.15 profit last year.  Our valuation moved down a bit to $22.24  from $22.59 last quarter. They upped  their 2015 guidance to $74-$80 million of adjusted EBITDA from $72-$78 million. Also, while the debt for the acquisition of Orad was on the balance sheet at June 30, the revenues and profits were not. You would think that AVID lost money and lowered their guidance by 50% with the way the market reacted.

Down 21% BUY

Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ-ATEC)-Recommended 9/2/2014)

Buy Price $.93 ($1.56 before doubling up on 8/10/2015 at $.66)

Valuation $2.54 (Was $2.61, $3.11, $2.95, $3.00)

Closed down $.16 at $.34

ATEC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on August 4, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphatec-holdings-announces-second-quarter-200500460.html

No one liked them as the stock plummeted more than 50%. Revenues were $46.6 million ($50.2 million in constant currency) compared to $53.2 million last year. EBITDA was down 50% from $7.7 to $3.8 million. Our valuation came in at $2.54 compared to the previous $2.61. We are cutting ATEC to a HOLD until they can reverse the negative trends in revenue, gross margin and EBITDA.

Down 63% BUY

CafePress, Inc.  Inc. (NASDAQ-PRSS)-Recommended 5/19/2014)

Buy Price $4.01 (Was $5.40 before adding $10,000 at $3.19 on 3/2/2015)

Valuation $9.09 (Was $12.50, $11.17, $12.51, $11.27)

Closed down $.15 at $4.35

PRSS announced Q2 2015 (6/30/2015) earnings on 8/14/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cafepress-reports-results-second-quarter-201500378.html

Not bad. They continue to slim down the business to its core. They are divesting their EZ print business now also. Revenues fell to $21.8 million from $29.1 million last year, but their loss from operations declined to $1.8 million from $4.4 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA was positive $.7 million versus negative $1.8 million last year. Cash fell to $46 million ($2.64 a share from $56 million due to working capital changes and the repurchase of $2.3 million worth of stock. Our valuation was $8.95 down a tad from $9.09 last quarter.

UP 9% HOLD

Extreme Networks, Inc.  Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)

Buy Price $3.43 (was $3.95 before we added another $10,000)

Valuation $9.47, (Was $6.99, $9.34, $8.24, $9.68, $8.52)

Closed down $.13 at $3.27

Extreme announced Q4 2015 (June 30, 2015) on August 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/extreme-networks-reports-fourth-quarter-110000404.html

Revenues came in at $149.9 compared to $155.3 and they made $.10 a share versus $.09 a share on a Non-GAAP basis. Our valuation came in at $9.47 a share versus $9.68 last year. Based on their guidance for next quarter we estimate our valuation at $7.45 compared to $8.24 for Q3 2014. Not heading in the right direction. This is a HOLD, hovering on a Sell. They need to cut expenses and/or sell the company.

Down 5%, HOLD

Synacor Inc. (NASDAQ-SYNC)-Recommended 12/17/2013)

Buy Price $2.56

Valuation $5.71 (Was $6.61, $5.58, $5.21, $5.44, $6.67, $6.39)’

Closed down $.07 at $1.37

SYNC has closed the acquisition of Zimbra.

SYNC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on 8/4/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-gains-ebitda-momentum-revenue-200100723.html

Revenues were $24.7 million up slightly from $24.2 million the prior year.  They had a Non-GAAP loss of about $.3 million compared to a loss of $1 million last year. SYNC’s valuation fell from last quarter to $5.29, but was a tad higher than last years $5.21.

Down 47%. BUY

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-DXM)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price 6.46 ( Was $15.14 before adding $10,000 on 3/30/2015)

Valuation $21.00 (Was $31.00, $31.00, $34.00, $37.98, $34.36, $31.50, $24.25)

Closed down $.06 at $.19

Q2, 2015 earnings were announced August 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dex-media-announces-second-quarter-110000263.html

Revenues were $387 million, down  from $474 million last year and down from $406 million last quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $159 million up from $143 million last quarter and down from $176 million last year. Overall not a great quarter. For the year they are guiding to revenue of about $1.5 billion and $525 million of EBITDA. In their original projection for 2015 they were looking at revenue of $2.077 billion and EBITDA of $782 million. Clearly they are not making their projections. Net debt was $2.144 (their original projection was to end 2015 with $2.004 billion of debt—a goal they will likely make. Based on this performance we have lowered our valuation to $4.71 a share. DEXM is a HOLD

DEX announced a major restructuring on December 11, 2014. They expect to incur

$70-$100 million of expenses to achieve $150 million of ongoing expense savings with $110 million of that coming in 2015. They expect to begin deleveraging their balance sheet (meaning Net Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio) in 2016. No question that’s what they need to do.

Down 97% HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)

Valuation $1.75 (Was $2.20, $1.83, $2.83, $2.85, $3.39, $3.25, $3.42, $4.64, $4.86, $4.00)

Closed up $.11 at $.45

Q1 2016 earnings announced on 9/10/2015..

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/daegis-inc-reports-fiscal-2016-200000062.html

Not a surprise with the discontinuance of the eDiscovery business. Revenues were $5.2 million compared to $6.7 million last year and they lost $.04 a share versus a loss of $.02 last year. EBITDA was $1,000 compared to $832,000 last year. Cash was $2.5 million and net debt was $7.4 million compared to $7.6 last year. Our valuation fell to $1.75 a share-still more than 5 times the current stock price.

DAEG announced Q4 2015 earnings (quarter ended April 30, 2015) on 7/28/2015.

Daegis is now a pure play enterprise software company and is trading at only 20% of our valuation.

.Down 59%, BUY

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $3.95 ($ 5.85, $6.20 before 12/15/2014 and 2/14/2014 $10,000 adders)

Valuation $6.20 (Was $6.10, $5.85, $5.98 $7.55, $8.75, $8.80, $1.83, $9.15, $10.95, $11.75, $12.80, $11.20)

Closed up $.04 at $1.31

BLIN announced Q3 2015 earnings (quarter ended June 30, 2015) on 8/14/2015. Revenues were $4.9 million down from $6.2 million last year but up from $4.8 million last quarter. They lost $.20 per share on a Non-GAAP basis compared to $.24 last year. Our valuation rose to $6.20 up from $6.10 last quarter on better margins. Overall, while margins and EBITDA (adjusted) improved it was pretty much a nothing quarter. Have to wait longer here as they eke out an existence and hopefully get this little boat moving in the right direction. HOLD

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bridgeline-digital-announces-financial-results-120000429.html

Down 67%, HOLD

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37

Valuation $5.78 (Was $5.43, $6.55, $6.88, $6.12, $5.99, $5.32, $6.81, $6.28, $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)

Closed down $.03 at $3.36

TSYS announced Q2 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on 7/30/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/telecommunication-systems-reports-second-quarter-200500282.html

Revenues were $87.9 million, up from $81.9 million last year and adjusted EPS was $.05 compared to $.04 last year. Overall an OK quarter-again. Our valuation was $5.78 down from $6.12 last year and up from $5.43 last quarter.

We are now waiting on the outcome of their “strategic alternatives” investigation with Lazard. This is still a HOLD.

UP 145%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)

Valuation $11.49 (was $16.38, $13.07, $14.80, $17.72, $15.01, $15.10,  $14.55, $14.77, $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)

Closed down $.15 at $6.12 (including $1.20 of dividends)

Pays $.48 annual dividend.

.

Q4 2015 (6/30/2015) earnings were released on 8/25/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/concurrent-reports-fourth-quarter-fiscal-200100937.html

Disappointing. Revenues fell to $13.8 million from $17.8 million last year and they lost $993,000 pre-tax compared to a profit of $2,032,000 last year. They blamed consolidation in the service provider sector for the sales decline and indicated it won’t get better in 2015. It is obvious that CCUR should not be a stand alone company. We think it is time to get this sold.

Our valuation plummeted to $11.49 from $16.38 last quarter. Cash per share fell to $2.80 , still over 50% of the market cap. We will keep a HOLD on CCUR until we see what the new CEO can do and they get revenue growth back. We continue to collect the 10% dividend.

UP 34%, HOLD

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),

Valuation $6.66 (was $6.47,  $5.96, $6.02, $5.67, $5.57, $5.70, $6.71, $6.41, $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)

Closed at $3.82 down $.25.

Park City Capital filed an amendment to their Form 13D in from December 2014 in September 2015, urging ARI to sell the company now and that private equity firms are paying big premiums for companies like ARI. They are still touting a valuation of $8 a share over the next 24 months

Q3 2015 were announced on June 11, 2015. Pretty good. Revenues were $10.3 million, up 26% from last year and they made $.02 a share compared to $.01 last year. Our valuation rose to $6.66 a share.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ari-network-services-inc-announces-200100623.html

They are doing a good job positioning the company to be acquired. Hopefully this will soon happen with a $5+ price like we got for XRS in September 2014.

UP 137%, HOLD, Still a large valuation gap here and the Company is executing well.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask,

Valuation $1.12 (Was $1.21, $1.39, $1.34, $1.22, $.99, $1.02, $1.05,  $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23,  $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)

Ask price $.34 closed at $.34

CTIG announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on 8/14/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cti-group-reports-2015-second-212621737.html

Revenues came in at $3.7 million versus $4.1 million last year. They lost $323,000 compared to a loss of $296,000 last year.

Our valuation fell a bit to $1.12 a share, down from $1.21 last quarter and $1.22 last year. We will continue to HOLD CTIG.

Commenting on the results, Fred Hanuschek, CTI Group’s CEO and President, stated, “Although our first half results were not as strong as we had hoped, we are encouraged by the number of opportunities that we are actively pursuing and believe these opportunities should lead to better second half results

Still way undervalued, but no light as to when or how this will ever be properly valued.

John Birbeck announced his departure in October 2014. He was one of the group trying to take CTIG private for $.40 a share. Birbeck will remain a Director of the company. He owns about 7% of CTIG (about 2.3 million shares).

They need to get an investment banker and sell the company. Probably get at least $.75 a share for it from someone.

UP 26%. HOLD

Advertisements

BUY MTSL at $1.25

MER Telemanagement Solutions. (NASDAQ–MTSL)

Valuation-$3.56

Price September 22, 2015-$1.25

We are reviving MTSL. We were in this before in 2011 and had a nice run for over a 100% gain. Since then a lot has happened. They lost some customers from their legacy business and now have bought a company-Vexigo, that closed in April 2015.

Their latest earnings were for the second quarter ended 6/30/2015 and included a full quarter of Vexigo. Revenues were $4.8 million up from $1.7 million last year and they posted a Non- GAAP income of $.02 a share versus a loss of $.06 million last year.

MTSL does have a potential liability for an earn-out payment of up to $16 million over the next 5.5 years related to the acquisition.

MTSL had $3.5 million of net cash or $.45 a share. Trading at only 35% of our valuation, with 40%+ gross margins, we think this is a BUY.

There are about 8 million shares outstanding and it trades only about 38,000 shares a day.

About MTSL: Mer Telemanagement Solutions Ltd. (MTS) is a provider of video advertising solutions for online and mobile platforms through Vexigo as well as a provider of innovative products and services for telecom expense management (TEM), enterprise mobility management (EMM), mobile virtual network operators and enablers (MVNO/MVNE), billing mobile money services and solutions and an IOT/M2M enablement platform used by mobile service providers.

Vexigo (www.vexigo.com) is a global provider of online video advertising software and services delivering compelling results through a propriety in-house technology and an easy-to-use and very effective publishing platform specifically designed for content publishers.

Headquartered in Israel, MTS markets its solutions through wholly owned subsidiaries in Israel, the United States and Hong Kong and through distribution channels..

Cheap Stocks, 9/18/2015 Update

We were up 2.9% last week and are now down 2.3% for the year. Meanwhile, the DOW was down .3% and the NASDAQ was up .1%. For the year the DOW is down 8.1% and NASDAQ is up 1.9%.

No earnings last week but the action in a few stocks late on Friday was wild. DAEG went from under $.30 to close at $1.17 and we had another stock we own personally just about double (DAKP from $.85 to $1.65) in the last hour of trading. We don’t know what to make of it for either stock, so are discounting the gain in DAEG until we see further action on Monday. No news as of Monday morning either. DAEG traded over 800,000 shares on Friday with additional 300,000 after hours compared to average daily trading volume of about 30,000 shares. Our 2.9% gain for the week uses Thursday’s DAEG close of $.34-otherwise our weekly gain would have been over 9%.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

CCUR 45%
SYNC 58%
CTIG 44%
PRSS 59%

CKP, CRNT, ATEC, AVID, DAEG and SYNC, can still be bought.

Last week we went 5 stocks up, 8 down and 1 unchanged. Since inception we are now 69 stocks up and 21 down for a 76.7% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).  Of our closed-out positions 64 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 83% win percentage and a 35% average net gain per position.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

Checkpoint Systems Inc. (NYSE-CKP)-Recommended 9/16/2015)

Buy Price $7.79

Valuation $18.28

Closed down $.16 at $7.63

Down 2%

BUY

Ceregon Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ-CRNT)-Recommended 8/20/2015)

Buy Price $1.46

Valuation $4.84

Closed down $.06 at $1.61

UP 10%

BUY

Avid Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ-AVID)-Recommended 1/20/2015)

Buy Price $10.25 (Was $14 before 8/15 double up at $8.08.

Valuation $22.24 (Was $22.59 $23.86, $28.10)

Closed down $.27 at $8.63

AVID announced Q2 2015 earnings (quarter ended June 30, 2015) on 8/10/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-announces-financial-results-second-203852725.html

Revenues were $110 million down from $125 million last year. They made a Non-GAAP profit of $.05 per share versus a $.15 profit last year.  Our valuation moved down a bit to $22.24  from $22.59 last quarter. They upped  their 2015 guidance to $74-$80 million of adjusted EBITDA from $72-$78 million. Also, while the debt for the acquisition of Orad was on the balance sheet at June 30, the revenues and profits were not. You would think that AVID lost money and lowered their guidance by 50% with the way the market reacted.

Down 16% BUY

Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ-ATEC)-Recommended 9/2/2014)

Buy Price $.93 ($1.56 before doubling up on 8/10/2015 at $.66)

Valuation $2.54 (Was $2.61, $3.11, $2.95, $3.00)

Closed up $.10 at $.50

ATEC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on August 4, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphatec-holdings-announces-second-quarter-200500460.html

No one liked them as the stock plummeted more than 50%. Revenues were $46.6 million ($50.2 million in constant currency) compared to $53.2 million last year. EBITDA was down 50% from $7.7 to $3.8 million. Our valuation came in at $2.54 compared to the previous $2.61. We are cutting ATEC to a HOLD until they can reverse the negative trends in revenue, gross margin and EBITDA.

Down 46% BUY

CafePress, Inc.  Inc. (NASDAQ-PRSS)-Recommended 5/19/2014)

Buy Price $4.01 (Was $5.40 before adding $10,000 at $3.19 on 3/2/2015)

Valuation $9.09 (Was $12.50, $11.17, $12.51, $11.27)

Closed up $.13 at $4.50

PRSS announced Q2 2015 (6/30/2015) earnings on 8/14/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cafepress-reports-results-second-quarter-201500378.html

Not bad. They continue to slim down the business to its core. They are divesting their EZ print business now also. Revenues fell to $21.8 million from $29.1 million last year, but their loss from operations declined to $1.8 million from $4.4 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA was positive $.7 million versus negative $1.8 million last year. Cash fell to $46 million ($2.64 a share from $56 million due to working capital changes and the repurchase of $2.3 million worth of stock. Our valuation was $8.95 down a tad from $9.09 last quarter.

UP 12% HOLD

Extreme Networks, Inc.  Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)

Buy Price $3.43 (was $3.95 before we added another $10,000)

Valuation $9.47, (Was $6.99, $9.34, $8.24, $9.68, $8.52)

Closed up $.10 at $3.40

Extreme announced Q4 2015 (June 30, 2015) on August 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/extreme-networks-reports-fourth-quarter-110000404.html

Revenues came in at $149.9 compared to $155.3 and they made $.10 a share versus $.09 a share on a Non-GAAP basis. Our valuation came in at $9.47 a share versus $9.68 last year. Based on their guidance for next quarter we estimate our valuation at $7.45 compared to $8.24 for Q3 2014. Not heading in the right direction. This is a HOLD, hovering on a Sell. They need to cut expenses and/or sell the company.

Down 1%, HOLD

Synacor Inc. (NASDAQ-SYNC)-Recommended 12/17/2013)

Buy Price $2.56

Valuation $5.71 (Was $6.61, $5.58, $5.21, $5.44, $6.67, $6.39)’

Closed down $.03 at $1.44

SYNC has closed the acquisition of Zimbra.

SYNC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on 8/4/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-gains-ebitda-momentum-revenue-200100723.html

Revenues were $24.7 million up slightly from $24.2 million the prior year.  They had a Non-GAAP loss of about $.3 million compared to a loss of $1 million last year. SYNC’s valuation fell from last quarter to $5.29, but was a tad higher than last years $5.21.

Down 44%. BUY

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-DXM)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price 6.46 ( Was $15.14 before adding $10,000 on 3/30/2015)

Valuation $21.00 (Was $31.00, $31.00, $34.00, $37.98, $34.36, $31.50, $24.25)

Closed down $.02 at $.25

Q2, 2015 earnings were announced August 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dex-media-announces-second-quarter-110000263.html

Revenues were $387 million, down  from $474 million last year and down from $406 million last quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $159 million up from $143 million last quarter and down from $176 million last year. Overall not a great quarter. For the year they are guiding to revenue of about $1.5 billion and $525 million of EBITDA. In their original projection for 2015 they were looking at revenue of $2.077 billion and EBITDA of $782 million. Clearly they are not making their projections. Net debt was $2.144 (their original projection was to end 2015 with $2.004 billion of debt—a goal they will likely make. Based on this performance we have lowered our valuation to $4.71 a share. DEXM is a HOLD

DEX announced a major restructuring on December 11, 2014. They expect to incur

$70-$100 million of expenses to achieve $150 million of ongoing expense savings with $110 million of that coming in 2015. They expect to begin deleveraging their balance sheet (meaning Net Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio) in 2016. No question that’s what they need to do.

Down 96% HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)

Valuation $2.20 (Was $2.20, $1.83, $2.83, $2.85, $3.39, $3.25, $3.42, $4.64, $4.86, $4.00)

Closed up $.03 at $.34 (See above-DAEG actually closed at $1.17 but we are waiting to see if it holds on Monday)

Q1 2016 earnings announced on 9/10/2015..

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/daegis-inc-reports-fiscal-2016-200000062.html

Not a surprise with the discontinuance of the eDiscovery business. Revenues were $5.2 million compared to $6.7 million last year and they lost $.04 a share versus a loss of $.02 last year. EBITDA was $1,000 compared to $832,000 last year. Cash was $2.5 million and net debt was $7.4 million compared to $7.6 last year. Our valuation fell to $1.75 a share-still more than 5 times the current stock price.

DAEG announced Q4 2015 earnings (quarter ended April 30, 2015) on 7/28/2015.

Daegis is now a pure play enterprise software company and is trading at only 20% of our valuation.

.Down 69%, BUY

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $3.95 ($ 5.85, $6.20 before 12/15/2014 and 2/14/2014 $10,000 adders)

Valuation $6.20 (Was $6.10, $5.85, $5.98 $7.55, $8.75, $8.80, $1.83, $9.15, $10.95, $11.75, $12.80, $11.20)

Closed down $.10 at $1.27

BLIN announced Q3 2015 earnings (quarter ended June 30, 2015) on 8/14/2015. Revenues were $4.9 million down from $6.2 million last year but up from $4.8 million last quarter. They lost $.20 per share on a Non-GAAP basis compared to $.24 last year. Our valuation rose to $6.20 up from $6.10 last quarter on better margins. Overall, while margins and EBITDA (adjusted) improved it was pretty much a nothing quarter. Have to wait longer here as they eke out an existence and hopefully get this little boat moving in the right direction. HOLD

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bridgeline-digital-announces-financial-results-120000429.html

Down 68%, HOLD

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37

Valuation $5.78 (Was $5.43, $6.55, $6.88, $6.12, $5.99, $5.32, $6.81, $6.28, $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)

Closed down $.05 at $3.39

TSYS announced Q2 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on 7/30/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/telecommunication-systems-reports-second-quarter-200500282.html

Revenues were $87.9 million, up from $81.9 million last year and adjusted EPS was $.05 compared to $.04 last year. Overall an OK quarter-again. Our valuation was $5.78 down from $6.12 last year and up from $5.43 last quarter.

We are now waiting on the outcome of their “strategic alternatives” investigation with Lazard. This is still a HOLD.

UP 147%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)

Valuation $11.49 (was $16.38, $13.07, $14.80, $17.72, $15.01, $15.10,  $14.55, $14.77, $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)

Closed down $.13 at $6.27 (including $1.20 of dividends)

Pays $.48 annual dividend.

.

Q4 2015 (6/30/2015) earnings were released on 8/25/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/concurrent-reports-fourth-quarter-fiscal-200100937.html

Disappointing. Revenues fell to $13.8 million from $17.8 million last year and they lost $993,000 pre-tax compared to a profit of $2,032,000 last year. They blamed consolidation in the service provider sector for the sales decline and indicated it won’t get better in 2015. It is obvious that CCUR should not be a stand alone company. We think it is time to get this sold.

Our valuation plummeted to $11.49 from $16.38 last quarter. Cash per share fell to $2.80 , still over 50% of the market cap. We will keep a HOLD on CCUR until we see what the new CEO can do and they get revenue growth back. We continue to collect the 10% dividend.

UP 37%, HOLD

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),

Valuation $6.66 (was $6.47,  $5.96, $6.02, $5.67, $5.57, $5.70, $6.71, $6.41, $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)

Closed at $4.07 up $.30.

Park City Capital filed an amendment to their Form 13D in from December 2014 in September 2015, urging ARI to sell the company now and that private equity firms are paying big premiums for companies like ARI. They are still touting a valuation of $8 a share over the next 24 months

Q3 2015 were announced on June 11, 2015. Pretty good. Revenues were $10.3 million, up 26% from last year and they made $.02 a share compared to $.01 last year. Our valuation rose to $6.66 a share.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ari-network-services-inc-announces-200100623.html

They are doing a good job positioning the company to be acquired. Hopefully this will soon happen with a $5+ price like we got for XRS in September 2014.

UP 152%, HOLD, Still a large valuation gap here and the Company is executing well.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask,

Valuation $1.12 (Was $1.21, $1.39, $1.34, $1.22, $.99, $1.02, $1.05,  $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23,  $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)

Ask price $.33 closed at $.29

CTIG announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on 8/14/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cti-group-reports-2015-second-212621737.html

Revenues came in at $3.7 million versus $4.1 million last year. They lost $323,000 compared to a loss of $296,000 last year.

Our valuation fell a bit to $1.12 a share, down from $1.21 last quarter and $1.22 last year. We will continue to HOLD CTIG.

Commenting on the results, Fred Hanuschek, CTI Group’s CEO and President, stated, “Although our first half results were not as strong as we had hoped, we are encouraged by the number of opportunities that we are actively pursuing and believe these opportunities should lead to better second half results

Still way undervalued, but no light as to when or how this will ever be properly valued.

John Birbeck announced his departure in October 2014. He was one of the group trying to take CTIG private for $.40 a share. Birbeck will remain a Director of the company. He owns about 7% of CTIG (about 2.3 million shares).

They need to get an investment banker and sell the company. Probably get at least $.75 a share for it from someone.

UP 22%. HOLD

Buy CKP @ $7.79

Checkpoint Systems. (NYSE–CKP)

Valuation-$18.28

Price September 16, 2015-$7.79

Latest earnings were for the second quarter ended 6/28/2015. Revenues were $148 million down from $171 million last year and they posted a Non- GAAP income of $.10 a share versus $.25 million last year.

For 2015 they are projecting revenues of $575-$625 million, adjusted EBITDA of $55 to $68 million and adjusted EPS of $.40 to $.50 a share.

CKP had $34 million of net cash or $.78 a share. Trading at only 43% of our valuation, with 40%+ gross margins and stable, recurring revenue stream, we think this is a BUY.

There are no activist investors that we see hanging around CKP but we would not be surprised to see someone surface as the valuation here just seems too compelling.

There are about 43 million shares outstanding and it trades about 188,000 shares a day.

About CKP: Checkpoint Systems is a global leader in merchandise availability solutions for the retail industry, encompassing loss prevention and merchandise visibility. Checkpoint provides end-to-end solutions enabling retailers to achieve accurate real-time inventory visibility, accelerate the replenishment cycle, prevent out-of-stocks and reduce theft, thus improving merchandise availability and the shopper’s experience. Checkpoint’s solutions are built upon 45 years of radio frequency technology expertise, innovative high-theft and loss prevention solutions, market-leading RFID hardware, software, and comprehensive labeling capabilities, to brand, secure and track merchandise from source to shelf. Checkpoint’s customers benefit from increased sales and profits by implementing merchandise availability solutions, to ensure the right merchandise is available at the right place and time when consumers are ready to buy.

Cheap Stocks, 9/11/2015 Update

The Envivio buy-out made our week. It is about time that we had a take-over this year, and at a 109% premium to boot. Overall, we were up 4.5% last week and are now down 5.2% for the year. Meanwhile, the DOW was up 2.1% and NASDAQ was up 3.0%. For the year the DOW is down 7.8% and NASDAQ is up 1.8%.

DAEG earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

CCUR 44%
SYNC 57%
CTIG 44%
PRSS 60%

ATEC, AVID, DAEG and SYNC, can still be bought.

Last week we went 8 stocks up and 5 down a. Since inception we are now 69 stocks up and 20 down for a 77.5% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions 64 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 83% win percentage and a 35% average net gain per position.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

Envivio Inc. (NASDAQ-ENVI)-Recommended 9/8/2015)

Buy Price $1.95

Valuation $4.53

Closed up $2.13 at $4.08

Got a $4.10 take-over offer from Ericsson on 9/10/2015—only a 10% discount to our valuation.

UP 109%

SOLD

Ceregon Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ-CRNT)-Recommended 8/20/2015)

Buy Price $1.46

Valuation $4.84

Closed up $.28 at $1.67

UP 14%

HOLD

Avid Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ-AVID)-Recommended 1/20/2015)

Buy Price $10.25 (Was $14 before 8/15 double up at $8.08.

Valuation $22.24 (Was $22.59 $23.86, $28.10)

Closed up $.36 at $8.90

AVID announced Q2 2015 earnings (quarter ended June 30, 2015) on 8/10/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-announces-financial-results-second-203852725.html

Revenues were $110 million down from $125 million last year. They made a Non-GAAP profit of $.05 per share versus a $.15 profit last year. Our valuation moved down a bit to $22.24 from $22.59 last quarter. They upped their 2015 guidance to $74-$80 million of adjusted EBITDA from $72-$78 million. Also, while the debt for the acquisition of Orad was on the balance sheet at June 30, the revenues and profits were not. You would think that AVID lost money and lowered their guidance by 50% with the way the market reacted.

Down 13% BUY

Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ-ATEC)-Recommended 9/2/2014)

Buy Price $.93 ($1.56 before doubling up on 8/10/2015 at $.66)

Valuation $2.54 (Was $2.61, $3.11, $2.95, $3.00)

Closed down $.18 at $.40

No news to account for the loss last week.

ATEC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on August 4, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphatec-holdings-announces-second-quarter-200500460.html

No one liked them as the stock plummeted more than 50%. Revenues were $46.6 million ($50.2 million in constant currency) compared to $53.2 million last year. EBITDA was down 50% from $7.7 to $3.8 million. Our valuation came in at $2.54 compared to the previous $2.61. We are cutting ATEC to a HOLD until they can reverse the negative trends in revenue, gross margin and EBITDA.

After the reaction to the earnings we bought more and suggest doubling up here as the selling seems over done. This will bring our average Buy price down to $.93.

Down 57% BUY

CafePress, Inc. Inc. (NASDAQ-PRSS)-Recommended 5/19/2014)

Buy Price $4.01 (Was $5.40 before adding $10,000 at $3.19 on 3/2/2015)

Valuation $9.09 (Was $12.50, $11.17, $12.51, $11.27)

Closed down $.08 at $4.37

PRSS announced Q2 2015 (6/30/2015) earnings on 8/14/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cafepress-reports-results-second-quarter-201500378.html

Not bad. They continue to slim down the business to its core. They are divesting their EZ print business now also. Revenues fell to $21.8 million from $29.1 million last year, but their loss from operations declined to $1.8 million from $4.4 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA was positive $.7 million versus negative $1.8 million last year. Cash fell to $46 million ($2.64 a share from $56 million due to working capital changes and the repurchase of $2.3 million worth of stock. Our valuation was $8.95 down a tad from $9.09 last quarter.

UP 9% HOLD

Extreme Networks, Inc. Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)

Buy Price $3.43 (was $3.95 before we added another $10,000)

Valuation $9.47, (Was $6.99, $9.34, $8.24, $9.68, $8.52)

Closed up $.17 at $3.30

Extreme announced Q4 2015 (June 30, 2015) on August 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/extreme-networks-reports-fourth-quarter-110000404.html

Revenues came in at $149.9 compared to $155.3 and they made $.10 a share versus $.09 a share on a Non-GAAP basis. Our valuation came in at $9.47 a share versus $9.68 last year. Based on their guidance for next quarter we estimate our valuation at $7.45 compared to $8.24 for Q3 2014. Not heading in the right direction. This is a HOLD, hovering on a Sell. They need to cut expenses and/or sell the company.

Down 4%, HOLD

Synacor Inc. (NASDAQ-SYNC)-Recommended 12/17/2013)

Buy Price $2.56

Valuation $5.71 (Was $6.61, $5.58, $5.21, $5.44, $6.67, $6.39)’

Closed down $.03 at $1.47

SYNC announced they are buying Zimbra.

From the press release: “Zimbra connects people and information with unified collaboration software that includes email, calendaring, file sharing, activity streams, social networks and more. With technology designed for social, mobile and the cloud, Zimbra gives individuals the flexibility to work from virtually anywhere, through nearly every computer, tablet and mobile device.

Zimbra’s software is trusted globally by service providers, governments and companies, with over 200,000 accessing Zimbra in the cloud managed by our worldwide network of service providers. With customers including NTT Communications, Comcast, Dell, Rackspace, Red Hat, Mozilla, H&R Block and Vodafone, a vibrant open source community and worldwide partner network, Zimbra is the third-largest collaboration provider in the world. Zimbra’s headquarters are in Frisco, Texas, with offices in London; Tokyo; Singapore and Pune, India.

The price is $17.3 million in cash, 3 million SYNC shares and .6 million warrants and up to $2 million in earn-outs. Not much financial information disclosed about Zimbra, but it looks like they have about $20 million in sales and $2 million in EBITDA. Overall we don’t think this will affect SYNC’s current valuation very much, but maybe it will help them start growing.

SYNC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on 8/4/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-gains-ebitda-momentum-revenue-200100723.html

Revenues were $24.7 million up slightly from $24.2 million the prior year. They had a Non-GAAP loss of about $.3 million compared to a loss of $1 million last year. SYNC’s valuation fell from last quarter to $5.29, but was a tad higher than last years $5.21.

Down 43%. BUY

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-DXM)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price 6.46 ( Was $15.14 before adding $10,000 on 3/30/2015)

Valuation $21.00 (Was $31.00, $31.00, $34.00, $37.98, $34.36, $31.50, $24.25)

Closed up $.03 at $.30

Q2, 2015 earnings were announced August 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dex-media-announces-second-quarter-110000263.html

Revenues were $387 million, down from $474 million last year and down from $406 million last quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $159 million up from $143 million last quarter and down from $176 million last year. Overall not a great quarter. For the year they are guiding to revenue of about $1.5 billion and $525 million of EBITDA. In their original projection for 2015 they were looking at revenue of $2.077 billion and EBITDA of $782 million. Clearly they are not making their projections. Net debt was $2.144 (their original projection was to end 2015 with $2.004 billion of debt—a goal they will likely make. Based on this performance we have lowered our valuation to $4.71 a share. DEXM is a HOLD

DEX announced a major restructuring on December 11, 2014. They expect to incur

$70-$100 million of expenses to achieve $150 million of ongoing expense savings with $110 million of that coming in 2015. They expect to begin deleveraging their balance sheet (meaning Net Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio) in 2016. No question that’s what they need to do.

Down 95% HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)

NEW Valuation $1.75 (Was $2.20, $1.83, $2.83, $2.85, $3.39, $3.25, $3.42, $4.64, $4.86, $4.00)

Closed down $.04 at $.31

Q1 2016 earnings last week.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/daegis-inc-reports-fiscal-2016-200000062.html

Not a surprise with the discontinuance of the eDiscovery business. Revenues were $5.2 million compared to $6.7 million last year and they lost $.04 a share versus a loss of $.02 last year. EBITDA was $1,000 compared to $832,000 last year. Cash was $2.5 million and net debt was $7.4 million compared to $7.6 last year. Our valuation fell to $1.75 a share-still more than 5 times the current stock price.

DAEG announced Q4 2015 earnings (quarter ended April 30, 2015) on 7/28/2015.

Daegis is now a pure play enterprise software company and is trading at only 20% of our valuation.

Down 71%, BUY

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $3.95 ($ 5.85, $6.20 before 12/15/2014 and 2/14/2014 $10,000 adders)

Valuation $6.20 (Was $6.10, $5.85, $5.98 $7.55, $8.75, $8.80, $1.83, $9.15, $10.95, $11.75, $12.80, $11.20)

Closed down $.17 at $1.37

Apparently nothing was going on two weeks ago as the spike to over $2 was short lived.

BLIN announced Q3 2015 earnings (quarter ended June 30, 2015) on 8/14/2015. Revenues were $4.9 million down from $6.2 million last year but up from $4.8 million last quarter. They lost $.20 per share on a Non-GAAP basis compared to $.24 last year. Our valuation rose to $6.20 up from $6.10 last quarter on better margins. Overall, while margins and EBITDA (adjusted) improved it was pretty much a nothing quarter. Have to wait longer here as they eke out an existence and hopefully get this little boat moving in the right direction. HOLD

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bridgeline-digital-announces-financial-results-120000429.html

Down 65%, HOLD

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37

Valuation $5.78 (Was $5.43, $6.55, $6.88, $6.12, $5.99, $5.32, $6.81, $6.28, $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)

Closed up $.18 at $3.44

TSYS announced Q2 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on 7/30/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/telecommunication-systems-reports-second-quarter-200500282.html

Revenues were $87.9 million, up from $81.9 million last year and adjusted EPS was $.05 compared to $.04 last year. Overall an OK quarter-again. Our valuation was $5.78 down from $6.12 last year and up from $5.43 last quarter.

We are now waiting on the outcome of their “strategic alternatives” investigation with Lazard. This is still a HOLD.

UP 151%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)

Valuation $11.49 (was $16.38, $13.07, $14.80, $17.72, $15.01, $15.10, $14.55, $14.77, $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)

Closed down $.24 at $6.40 (including $1.20 of dividends)

Pays $.48 annual dividend.

Q4 2015 (6/30/2015) earnings were released on 8/25/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/concurrent-reports-fourth-quarter-fiscal-200100937.html

Disappointing. Revenues fell to $13.8 million from $17.8 million last year and they lost $993,000 pre-tax compared to a profit of $2,032,000 last year. They blamed consolidation in the service provider sector for the sales decline and indicated it won’t get better in 2015. It is obvious that CCUR should not be a stand alone company. We think it is time to get this sold.

Our valuation plummeted to $11.49 from $16.38 last quarter. Cash per share fell to $2.80 , still over 50% of the market cap. We will keep a HOLD on CCUR until we see what the new CEO can do and they get revenue growth back. We continue to collect the 10% dividend.

UP 40%, HOLD

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),

Valuation $6.66 (was $6.47, $5.96, $6.02, $5.67, $5.57, $5.70, $6.71, $6.41, $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)

Closed at $3.77 up $.02.

Q3 2015 were announced on June 11, 2015. Pretty good. Revenues were $10.3 million, up 26% from last year and they made $.02 a share compared to $.01 last year. Our valuation rose to $6.66 a share.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ari-network-services-inc-announces-200100623.html

They are doing a good job positioning the company to be acquired. Hopefully this will soon happen with a $5+ price like we got for XRS in September 2014.

UP 134%, HOLD, Still a large valuation gap here and the Company is executing well.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask,

Valuation $1.12 (Was $1.21, $1.39, $1.34, $1.22, $.99, $1.02, $1.05, $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23, $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)

Ask price $.33 closed at $.31

CTIG announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on 8/14/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cti-group-reports-2015-second-212621737.html

Revenues came in at $3.7 million versus $4.1 million last year. They lost $323,000 compared to a loss of $296,000 last year.

Our valuation fell a bit to $1.12 a share, down from $1.21 last quarter and $1.22 last year. We will continue to HOLD CTIG.

Commenting on the results, Fred Hanuschek, CTI Group’s CEO and President, stated, “Although our first half results were not as strong as we had hoped, we are encouraged by the number of opportunities that we are actively pursuing and believe these opportunities should lead to better second half results

Still way undervalued, but no light as to when or how this will ever be properly valued.

John Birbeck announced his departure in October 2014. He was one of the group trying to take CTIG private for $.40 a share. Birbeck will remain a Director of the company. He owns about 7% of CTIG (about 2.3 million shares).

They need to get an investment banker and sell the company. Probably get at least $.75 a share for it from someone.

UP 22%. HOLD

They need to get an investment banker and sell the company. Probably get at least $.75 a share for it from someone.

UP 22%. HOLD

BUY ENVI @ $1.95

Envivio Inc. (NASDAQ–ENVI)

Valuation-$4.53

Price September 8, 2015-$1.95

Latest earnings were for the second quarter ended 7/31/2015. Revenues were $11.7 million up $.2 million from last year ($11.5 million) and they posted a Non- GAAP loss of $400,000 versus a loss of $1.3 million last year.

ENVI had $35 million of net cash or $1.25 a share and our valuation was $4.53 a share up from $3.81 in the previous quarter.

Trading at only 43% of our valuation and with 64% of its market cap in cash, we think this is a BUY.

There are about 28 million shares outstanding and it trades about 117,000 shares a day.

About ENVI: Envivio is a global market leader and innovator of video software solutions that are trusted by video service providers and content companies worldwide to power stunning video quality and captivating, personalized experiences to their millions of viewers on any device, over any network. Leveraging its pioneering and technically superior virtualized video delivery solutions, Envivio enables video operators of any size to increase revenues and reduce costs while uniquely providing the best-in-class quality, reliability, efficiency, and scalability to support the new age of video anywhere. Envivio is headquartered in San Francisco, California with offices worldwide in France, China and Singapore.