I have a 40 year background in accounting and finance at a number of public and private companies in increasingly responsible positions and have been a CFO for the last 20 years. My background in preparing financial statements, reporting to the Securities and Exchange Commission and having been involved in a number of company sales and purchases are invaluable tools in reading and understanding public company financial statements and their valuations.
August 2016 Update
We have sold 5 of our private positions in 2016.
Imation—31% gain
Mitel-15% gain
United Online-6% loss (take-under)
SGI—70% gain on takeover.
AVID-55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)
If you are interested in becoming one of our private subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com
Our 15 new, private stock positions (including the 5 sold positions) are up 18.6% for the year.
For our legacy stocks, August was not as good as July but still pretty good- up 4%, driven by a 38% gain in AVID, which we think still has a long way to go.
We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.Of our closed out positions since inception, we have had 70 winners, 16 losers for an 81% win-rate with an average gain of 39%.
August 2016 Performance:
| Index | August | YTD |
| Dow | -0.2% | 5.6% |
| Nasdaq | 1.0% | 4.1% |
| CSI | 4.0% | 31.2% |
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | Prior | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | SOLD 7/14/2016 | 210% | 11.1% | NA | NA | NA | |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 7.37 | 61% | 15.3% | $ 16.16 | 46% | $ 11.72 |
| BLIN | 3.95 | 0.78 | -80% | -31.0% | $ 2.11 | 37% | $ 2.06 |
| DXMM | SOLD 5/2/2016 | -98% | 0.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 2.82 | 10% | 61.1% | $ 6.17 | 46% | $ 6.23 |
| EXTR | SOLD 7/21/2016 | 13% | -4.9% | NA | NA | NA | |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 2.98 | -26% | -22.4% | $ 7.73 | 39% | $ 7.75 |
| ATEC | 7.06 | 4.02 | -43% | 11.7% | $ 23.64 | 17% | $ 280.65 |
| AVID | 8.35 | 8.99 | 8% | 23.3% | $ 25.56 | 35% | $ 28.44 |
| CRNT | SOLD 8-5-2016 | 64% | 86.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| CKP | SOLD-BUYOUT 3/2016 | 48% | 60.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| MTSL | SOLD 3/29/2016 | -9% | 34.1% | NA | NA | NA | |
| GSL | 3.09 | 1.70 | -45% | -34.6% | $ 3.00 | 57% | $ 3.00 |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | |||||||
Just a note
We only have 7 remaining stocks in our legacy portfolio.
We think 3 of them are screaming buys, 3 are holds and 1 is a hope.
SYNC will begin to see the impact of the $100 million AT&T contract in 2017. We think it is worth double the current trading price before the AT&T contract.
AVID has 2 analysts covering it now that both have current year earnings estimates over $2 a share. So AVID is trading at like 4.5 times earnings. This is a software company with 30% of its revenues recurring. CHEAP
ATEC is selling its European operations for $80 million. This looks like it was about 40% of their business. This deal will allow them to get out of jail with their lender which is what was killing the stock price, in our opinion. Our current valuation is $1.97 a share versus the $.30 it is trading at.
GSL is the “hope” referred to above. We can’t predict when management outright lies in their press releases that they will increase their dividend from $.40 a share to $.50–and then eliminate it entirely. Operationally they are doing just fine.
Sell CRNT @$2.25 for a 64% gain
We are taking our gain on CRNT in just less than 1 year. It may go higher, but we would rather be early selling for a good gain than late, and lose it.
July 2016 Update
We had a great YEAR, in July. Driven by big gains in ARIS (19%), CRNT (37%), and GSL (35%) we were up 26.7% in July and are now up 27.2% for the year.
Even ATEC had good news. They are selling their European distribution operations for $80 million and paying off all their debt (which they were in default on). We are surprised that the stock did not at least double on the news.
BLIN also seems to have solved its debt problems by converting some or all of it to stock.
We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.
Of our closed out positions since inception, we have had 69 winners, 16 losers for an 81% win-rate with an average gain of 38%.
July 2016 Performance:
| Index | July | YTD |
| Dow | 2.9% | 5.8% |
| Nasdaq | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| CSI | 26.7% | 27.2% |
Our 13 new, private stock positions (including 2 sold positions) are up 10% for the year.
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | Prior | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | SOLD 7/14/2016 | 210% | 11.1% | NA | NA | NA | |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 6.92 | 51% | 8.3% | $ 11.72 | 59% | $ 13.68 |
| BLIN | 3.95 | 0.85 | -78% | -24.8% | $ 2.06 | 41% | $ 4.40 |
| DXMM | SOLD 5/2/2016 | -98% | 0.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 3.05 | 19% | 74.3% | $ 6.23 | 49% | $ 6.86 |
| EXTR | SOLD 7/21/2016 | 13% | -4.9% | NA | NA | NA | |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 3.14 | -22% | -18.2% | $ 7.11 | 44% | $ 10.68 |
| ATEC | 0.59 | 0.41 | -30% | 36.7% | $ 2.43 | 17% | $ 2.26 |
| AVID | 8.35 | 6.51 | -22% | -10.7% | $ 28.44 | 23% | $ 23.50 |
| CRNT | 1.38 | 2.22 | 61% | 83.5% | $ 3.24 | 69% | $ 3.97 |
| CKP | BUYOUT 3/2/2016 | 48% | 60.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| MTSL | SOLD 3/29/2016 | -9% | 34.1% | NA | NA | NA | |
| GSL | 3.09 | 1.71 | -45% | -34.2% | $ 3.00 | 57% | $ 3.00 |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | |||||||
EXTR-Sell @$3.88
Again, nothing new here. We sold 100% of our position this morning. We are nervous about the market, and are worried about a “miss” from EXTR–which they do fairly often. So we are taking our 13% gain and putting the money aside for a rainy day.
ARIS-Sell at $5.00
Well we are packing it in on ARIS. Bulls and Bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.
We are selling ARIS after 10 years. It has been like watching moss grow, but we will book a 210% gain.
Nothing wrong that we see here, and only selling 1/3 of our personal holdings. We will hold the rest and see what happens.
Cheap Stocks, June 2016 Update
Well we finally got back to breakeven for the year after the January “freeze”.
We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.
Of our closed out positions since inception, we had 67 winners, 16 losers for an 81% win-rate with an average gain of 37%.
June 2016 Performance:
| Index | June | YTD |
| Dow | 0.8% | 2.9% |
| Nasdaq | -2.1% | -3.3% |
| CSI | 2.4% | 0.4% |
Our 13 new private client stock positions (including 2 sold positions) are up 2.4% for the year.
| Per Share | Current | Lifetime | 2016 | Current | Price to | Prior | |
| Stock | Cost | Price | Gain/Loss | Gain/Loss | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation |
| ARIS | 1.61 | 4.20 | 161% | -6.7% | $ 6.46 | 65% | $ 6.40 |
| CCUR ** | 4.58 | 7.02 | 53% | 9.9% | $ 11.72 | 60% | $ 13.68 |
| BLIN | 3.95 | 1.06 | -73% | -6.2% | $ 2.06 | 52% | $ 4.40 |
| DXMM | SOLD 5/2/2016 | -98% | 0.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| SYNC | 2.56 | 3.08 | 20% | 76.0% | $ 6.23 | 49% | $ 6.86 |
| EXTR | 3.43 | 3.39 | -1% | -16.9% | $ 7.48 | 45% | $ 8.76 |
| PRSS | 4.01 | 3.10 | -23% | -19.3% | $ 7.11 | 44% | $ 10.68 |
| ATEC | 0.59 | 0.35 | -41% | 16.7% | $ 2.43 | 14% | $ 2.26 |
| AVID | 8.35 | 5.81 | -30% | -20.3% | $ 28.44 | 20% | $ 23.50 |
| CRNT | 1.38 | 1.62 | 18% | 33.9% | $ 3.24 | 50% | $ 3.97 |
| CKP | BUYOUT 3/2/2016 | 48% | 60.0% | NA | NA | NA | |
| MTSL | SOLD 3/29/2016 | -9% | 34.1% | NA | NA | NA | |
| GSL | 3.09 | 1.27 | -59% | -51.2% | $ 3.00 | 42% | $ 3.00 |
| ** Current price includes cumulative dividends | |||||||
