Welcome from the Cheap Stock Investor

I have a 40 year background in accounting and finance at a number of public and private companies in increasingly responsible positions and have been a CFO for the last 20 years. My background in preparing financial statements, reporting to the Securities and Exchange Commission and having been involved in a number of company sales and purchases are invaluable tools in reading and understanding public company financial statements and their valuations.

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November 2016 Update

We have sold 8 of our private positions in 2016 (either fully or partially).

Imation—31% gain

Mitel-15% gain

United Online-6% loss (take-under)

SGI—70% gain on takeover.

AVID-55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

HLIT-85% gain. We sold 75% of our position here.

UVE-36% gain.

ATEC—71% gain. (This was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com. It is NOT CHEAP though.

We averaged a 41% gain on our 8 sold positions in our private portfolio and are up 3% on our other 16 positions.

November was just a so-so month–up .7% compared to the Dow up 5.6% and NASDAQ up 2.7%. We are still up a healthy 23.9% compared to the DOW up 9.7% and NASDAQ up 6.3% for the year. GSL was up 130% and got close to our cost basis and we got out at $3.00. It is now sub-$2 again.

We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold. Of our closed out positions since inception, we have had 70 winners, 17 losers for an 80% win-rate with an average gain of 38%.

November 2016 Performance:

Index November YTD
Dow 5.6% 9.7%
Nasdaq 2.7% 6.3%
CSI 0.7% 23.9%

 

Per Share Current Lifetime 2016 Current Price to Prior
Stock Cost Price Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Valuation Valuation Valuation
ARIS SOLD 7/14/2016 210% 11.1% NA NA NA
CCUR **          4.58        7.53 64% 17.8% $     9.49 79% $     16.16
BLIN          3.95        0.63 -84% -44.2% $     2.11 30% $     2.06
DXMM SOLD 5/2/2016 -98% 0.0% NA NA NA
SYNC          2.56        3.05 19% 74.3% $     6.17 49% $     6.23
EXTR SOLD 7/21/2016 13% -4.9% NA NA NA
PRSS          4.01        3.05 -24% -20.6% $     7.43 41% $     7.73
ATEC          7.06        5.23 -26% 45.3% $     18.78 28% $     19.93
AVID          8.35        4.21 -50% -42.2% $     22.03 19% $     25.56
CRNT SOLD 8-5-2016 64% 86.0% NA NA NA
CKP SOLD-BUYOUT 3/2016 48% 60.0% NA NA NA
MTSL SOLD 3/29/2016 -9% 34.1% NA NA NA
GSL SOLD 11/16/2016 -3% 15.8% NA NA NA
** Current price includes cumulative dividends

 

October 2016 Update

We have sold 8 of our private positions in 2016 (either fully or partially).

Imation—31% gain

Mitel-15% gain

United Online-6% loss (take-under)

SGI—70% gain on takeover.

AVID-55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

HLIT-85% gain. We sold 75% of our position here.

UVE-36% gain. Hurricane Matt, was our decision maker to get out.

ATEC—71% gain. (This was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com. It is NOT CHEAP though.

We averaged a 41% gain on our 8 sold positions in our private portfolio and are up 2% on our other 13 positions.

For our legacy stocks, October stunk up the place as we were down 13% as ATEC gave back 34%, GSL 20% and BLIN 21% for no reason. The legacy portfolio is still up 23% in 2016.

We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold. Of our closed out positions since inception, we have had 70 winners, 16 losers for an 81% win-rate with an average gain of 39%.

October 2016 Performance:

Index October YTD
Dow -1.0% 4.1%
Nasdaq -2.5% 3.6%
CSI -13.6% 23.2%

 

Per Share Current Lifetime 2016 Current Price to Prior
Stock Cost Price Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Valuation Valuation Valuation
ARIS SOLD 7/14/2016 210% 11.1% NA NA NA
CCUR **          4.58        7.82 71% 22.4% $     16.16 48% $     11.72
BLIN          3.95        0.62 -84% -45.1% $     2.11 29% $     2.06
DXMM SOLD 5/2/2016 -98% 0.0% NA NA NA
SYNC         2.56        2.78 8% 58.6% $     6.17 45% $     6.23
EXTR SOLD 7/21/2016 13% -4.9% NA NA NA
PRSS          4.01        3.04 -24% -20.8% $     7.73 39% $     7.75
ATEC          7.06        6.23 -12% 73.1% $     19.93 31% $     19.68
AVID          8.35        6.57 -21% -9.9% $     25.56 26% $     28.44
CRNT SOLD 8-5-2016 64% 86.0% NA NA NA
CKP SOLD-BUYOUT 3/2016 48% 60.0% NA NA NA
MTSL SOLD 3/29/2016 -9% 34.1% NA NA NA
GSL          3.09        1.31 -58% -49.6% $     3.00 44% $     3.00
** Current price includes cumulative dividends

 

September 2016 Update

We have sold 6 of our private positions in 2016.

Imation—31% gain

Mitel-15% gain

United Online-6% loss (take-under)

SGI—70% gain on takeover.

AVID-55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

HLIT-85% gain. We sold 75% of our position here.

If you are interested in becoming one of our private subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com.

Our 15 new, private stock positions (including the 6 sold positions) are up 31% for the year.

For our legacy stocks, September was again pretty good- up 5.7%, driven by a 134% gain in ATEC. The legacy portfolio is up 36.9% in 2016.

We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold. Of our closed out positions since inception, we have had 70 winners, 16 losers for an 81% win-rate with an average gain of 39%.

September 2016 Performance:

Index September YTD
Dow -0.5% 5.1%
Nasdaq 2.0% 6.1%
CSI 5.7% 36.9%

 

Per Share Current Lifetime 2016 Current Price to Prior
Stock Cost Price Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Valuation Valuation Valuation
ARIS SOLD 7/14/2016 210% 11.1% NA NA NA
CCUR **          4.58        7.42 62% 16.1% $     16.16 46% $     11.72
BLIN          3.95        0.78 -80% -31.4% $     2.11 37% $     2.06
DXMM SOLD 5/2/2016 -98% 0.0% NA NA NA
SYNC          2.56        2.91 14% 66.3% $     6.17 47% $     6.23
EXTR SOLD 7/21/2016 13% -4.9% NA NA NA
PRSS          4.01        3.20 -20% -16.7% $     7.73 41% $     7.75
ATEC          7.06        9.40 33% 161.1% $     19.93 47% $     19.68
AVID          8.35        7.94 -5% 8.9% $     25.56 31% $     28.44
CRNT SOLD 8-5-2016 64% 86.0% NA NA NA
CKP SOLD-BUYOUT 3/2016 48% 60.0% NA NA NA
MTSL SOLD 3/29/2016 -9% 34.1% NA NA NA
GSL          3.09        1.67 -46% -35.8% $     3.00 56% $     3.00
** Current price includes cumulative dividends

August 2016 Update

We have sold 5 of our private positions in 2016.

Imation—31% gain

Mitel-15% gain

United Online-6% loss (take-under)

SGI—70% gain on takeover.

AVID-55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

If you are interested in becoming one of our private subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com

Our 15 new, private stock positions (including the 5 sold positions) are up 18.6% for the year.

For our legacy stocks, August was not as good as July but still pretty good- up 4%, driven by a 38% gain in AVID, which we think still has a long way to go.

We are updating our open legacy portfolio once a month until all positions are sold.Of our closed out positions since inception, we have had 70 winners, 16 losers for an 81% win-rate with an average gain of 39%.

August 2016 Performance:

Index August YTD
Dow -0.2% 5.6%
Nasdaq 1.0% 4.1%
CSI 4.0% 31.2%

 

Per Share Current Lifetime 2016 Current Price to Prior
Stock Cost Price Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Valuation Valuation Valuation
ARIS SOLD 7/14/2016 210% 11.1% NA NA NA
CCUR **          4.58        7.37 61% 15.3% $     16.16 46% $     11.72
BLIN          3.95        0.78 -80% -31.0% $     2.11 37% $     2.06
DXMM SOLD 5/2/2016 -98% 0.0% NA NA NA
SYNC          2.56        2.82 10% 61.1% $     6.17 46% $     6.23
EXTR SOLD 7/21/2016 13% -4.9% NA NA NA
PRSS          4.01        2.98 -26% -22.4% $     7.73 39% $     7.75
ATEC          7.06        4.02 -43% 11.7% $     23.64 17% $ 280.65
AVID          8.35        8.99 8% 23.3% $     25.56 35% $     28.44
CRNT SOLD 8-5-2016 64% 86.0% NA NA NA
CKP SOLD-BUYOUT 3/2016 48% 60.0% NA NA NA
MTSL SOLD 3/29/2016 -9% 34.1% NA NA NA
GSL          3.09        1.70 -45% -34.6% $     3.00 57% $     3.00
** Current price includes cumulative dividends

Just a note

We only have 7 remaining stocks in our legacy portfolio.

We think 3 of them are screaming buys, 3 are holds and 1 is a hope.

SYNC will begin to see the impact of the $100 million AT&T contract in 2017. We think it is worth double the current trading price before the AT&T contract.

AVID has 2 analysts covering it now that both have current year earnings estimates over $2 a share. So AVID is trading at like 4.5 times earnings. This is a software company with 30% of its revenues recurring.  CHEAP

ATEC is selling its European operations for $80 million.  This looks like it was about 40% of their business. This deal will allow them to get out of jail with their lender which is what was killing the stock price, in our opinion. Our current valuation is $1.97 a share versus the $.30 it is trading at.

GSL is the “hope” referred to above. We can’t predict when management outright lies in their press releases that they will increase their dividend from $.40 a share to $.50–and then eliminate it entirely. Operationally they are doing just fine.