Things getting a little better?

No luck on the earnings front. DWCH and INFT dissapointed. MIVA is our biggest dog, followed by Linn.ob, DWCH and then PDLI. Last week we had 5 up, 6 down. Since the start of the year we are still 10 up and 4 down. No buys or sells this past week.

Our model portfolio based on the stocks in this Blog is up 17% so far this year. Not as good as we would like, but not bad given the choppy market and 4 losers we have right now (we shoot for 80% win rate–not our current 71%). This model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.03 for the week at $9.75. Yield about 3%. A group called Costa Brava Partnership is offering to buy the Class A stock at a “substantial premium”. The company has rejected this offer. The company is “in-play”. CB owns 7.9% of the stock. Up 3% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.63, up $.29. Up 10% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $18.37, up $1.86 from last week. Now down 5%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $2.94, up $.19 from last week. Now down 23% on this one. HOLD.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31). Closed at $3.05, down $.56 from last week, still a loser–down 17%. See our previous post. HOLD.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was$7.32). Down $.52 to $4.25 last week. Still has $2.52 per share in cash and valuation only fell a little, but lowering our price objective to $5.50. Now up only 3%. HOLD.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.29, down $.03. Now down 19% YTD. HOLD–let’s see what earning look like.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.40, up $.17 from last week. Now up 12% to date. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell another $.28 from last week to $1.53. Now only up 29%. This looks like steal here–BUY.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price rose to $.44 (up $.01) last week. Closed at $.42. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 63% (based on asked price). Bid price was up to $.42. HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.11 from last week at $2.49, up 30% so far. HOLD

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Datawatch-out

DWCH released 6/30 results this morning. Dissappointing to say the least. Sales were down from last year despite the recent acquisition being in effect for 2 months of the quarter. Stock got hammered on low volume (22,000 shares right now) down as low as $2.51. Seems to be rising a bit now, but big damage has been done. Lost $315,000 for the quarter–merger related expenses cited–but not how much. New valuation has come down to $7.63–still, at this price the discount to valuation says hold, and maybe buy more and average down a bit. Think this is an overreaction in a “thin” stock.

More of the same………….

Our worst week of the year. Despite the brief rally in the markets, down, is the direction. Hopefully some good earning reports will appear for our stocks in the next couple of weeks and we will get some upwards pops. MIVA is our biggest dog, but PDLI is catching up. Last week we had 1 up, 9 down. CAW is looking interesting (see below). Since the start of the year we are still 9 up and 5 down. No buys or sells this past week. Looking at a number of stocks that look cheap–and they continue to get cheaper the longer we wait. We would rather miss them than make a mistake.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.20 for the week at $9.78. Yield about 3%. A group called Costa Brava Partnership is offering to buy the Class A stock at a “substantial premium”. Hopefully this is the catalyst we have been waitng for. CB owns 7.9% of the stock. Maybe management will do something for us shareholders to unlock the value here. Up 3% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.34, down $.36. Up 11% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $16.51, down $.75 from last week. Now down 15%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $2.75, down $.05 from last week. Now down 28% on this one. HOLD.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $9.31). Closed at $3.61, up $.01 from last week, still a loser–down 1%. The discount to the valuation is just too big. Still a BUY.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $7.32). Down $.02 to $4.77 last week. Still up 16%. HOLD for $6.00.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.32, down $.04. Now down 11% YTD. Still a BUY.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.23, down $.03 from last week. Now down 2% to date. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell another $.14 from last week to $1.81. Now only up 52%. BUY

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price fell to $.43 (down $.02) last week. Closed at $.43. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 59% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.05 from last week at $2.60, up 36% so far. Announced some new business deals last week, but nobody cared. HOLD

What a Week

What a crummy market. It has gotten very painful, but despite the carnage out there we did not really have too bad a week. MIVA is our biggest dog, but we are hopeful that it will rebound–it will just take time. A number of companies we are watching warned on earnings over the last several weeks, got hammered and could be buys–if this market ever looks like it will turn around. Last week we had 2 up, 7 down, 1 even. Since the start of the year we are still 10 up and 3 down and 1 even. No buys or sells this past week.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.43 for the week at $9.98. Yield about 3%. Up 6% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.70, down $.15. Up 11% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $17.26, down $1.44 from last week. Now down 11%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $2.80, down $.75 from last week. It was a bad time to issue a warning. Now down 26% on this one. HOLD.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $9.31). Closed at $3.60, up $.12 from last week, still a loser–down 2%. The discount to the valuation is just too big. Still a BUY.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $7.32). Up $.14 to $4.79 last week. Still up 17%. HOLD for $6.00.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.36, even on the week and YTD. Still a BUY.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.26, down $.04 from last week. Weird trading on Friday again. Jumped to $1.51 on about 20,000 shares, than dropped to $1.26 when someone put 10,000 shares for sale at $1.31–and only got 500 done. Gut says to snap these up if they are still available on Monday–but this market is too scary to buy anything right now. In the plus column up 1% to date. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell another $.10 from last week to $1.95. Now only up 64%. BUY

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price jumped to $.45 last week. Closed at $.35. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 67% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.02 from last week at $2.65, up 39% so far. Jumped $.20 one day last week–then the market took over. Maybe some good news on quarterly results coming? HOLD

CAW, MIVA,OPTO.ob etc.

Last week we had 4 up, 6 down, 1 even. Since the start of the year we are still 10 up and 3 down and 1 even. No buys or sells this past week. CAW made a nice upside move, but MIVA went the other way.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed up $1.19 for the week at $10.41. Apparently releasing their earnings twice worked a bit, they were good. Yield about 2.5%. Up 10% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.85, up $.12. Got up over $8 several times last week–but then Friday happened. No news. Up 13% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $18.70, up $.29 from last week. Now down 3%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $3.55, down $.50 from last week. They warned on this quarter’s earning. They will miss sales by 2-3 million and bottom line too. They didn’t say how much. Will update valuation when all the numbers comes out. The valuation will go down, but not enough to cause us to sell yet. Now down 7% on this one. WAIT.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $9.31). Closed at $3.48, down $.10 from last week, still a loser–down 5%. The discount to the valuation is just too big. Still a BUY.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $7.32). Down $.11 to $4.65 last week. Still up 13%. Hold for $6.00.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.36, down $.02 from last week. Now even on this one. Still a BUY.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.30, down $.10 from last week. They announced that the CEO sold 200,000 shares last week. Never a good thing, but it is like 3% of what he owns. Stock just can’t get out of its own way. In the plus column up 4%. to date. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell $.10 from last week to $2.05. Now only up 72%. BUY

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price stayed the same at $.38 last week. Closed at $.35. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 41% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed up $.07 from last week at $2.67, up 40%. HOLD

QADI, PDLI, MIVA, OPTO.ob

Last week we had 5 up, 5 down, 1 even. Since the start of the year we are still 11 up and 3 down. No buys or sells this past week.

Just as a post-mortem, ONXS received a new all cash take-over offer from CDC last week–$5.00, 97% of what our valuation came up with.

Looking hard at Elizabeth Arden (RDEN). Almost bought last week when it fell under $17. Valuation is $33 a share, but it has a lot of debt, which makes us pause. No opinion yet.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.25 for the week at $9.22. CAW was dropped from the Russell index on Friday, but the fundamentals are good. They released earnings last week also, sales up 3%. Earnings were down 3%, but they would have been up 42% (!) if they hadn’t had to change the way they account for advertising expenses. Earnings comparisons for the next 2 quarters should be very good, as they were deferring some of these advetising expenses into future quarters in the past, rather than expenseing them all in Q2. Yield about 3%. Down 2% so far. BUY.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.73, up $.68. Got up to $7.99 on Friday but couldn’t hold there. No news. Up 12% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $18.41, up $.94 from last week. Now down 5%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $4.05, up $.08 from last week. Up 7% on this one. BUY.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $9.31). Closed at $3.58, down $.05 from last week, but still a loser–down 2%. The discount to the valuation is just too big. Still a BUY.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $7.32). Down $.14 to $4.76 last week. Still up 16%. Hold for $6.00.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.38, up $.01 from last week. Up 6% Still a BUY.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.40, up $.19 from last week Back in the plus column up 12%. A 400,000 share block traded on Friday, so hopefully the recent selling pressure will let up and this will crack over $1.50 which seems hard for this stock to do. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell $.05 from last week to $2.15. Now only up 81%. BUY

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price stayed the same at $.38 last week. Closed at $.35. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 41% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.05 from last week at $2.60, up 36%. HOLD