CSI Update, March 2020 Private Subscribers

We stopped publishing our free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. We are following our 3 remaining open positions until the end.

In late 2015 I started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Blog, but we tell you exactly what stocks we bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares we own and their valuations.

Through March 31, 2020, I have averaged a 41.7% gain on the 39 stocks I have sold (37 winners and 2 small losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Nine of the 37 stocks have had buy-out offers, including six in 2017 and two in 2018. But none in 2019 or 2020-yet. My total portfolio was up 72.8% in 2019.

The virus hammered all of my stocks in March. On February 22, 2020 when the DOW was just under 29,000, I wrote this to my subscribers before anyone realized this virus would be a big thing:

“The economy seems to be rolling right along, interest rates are low, so what is there to worry about? My biggest “big picture” worry is the massive national debt. Maybe something will be done to deal with this, but one day all of Wall Street may wake up and all run for the hills, whether it is warranted or not.  Shorter in, I still think the valuations of many stocks looks like the dot bombs of twenty years ago. I don’t know what will break the momentum of the Tesla’s, Netflix, Amazon’s etc, but if/when it happens, I think it will be very bloody as they make up a huge portion of the entire market value and will take everything down. Then there are the things that the market seems to have absorbed in stride like Iran, N. Korea, Corona virus, the possibility of a socialist government and on and on—so far.

So I have been reducing my market exposure since 2018. I would rather make less money, than lose what I have made.”

Who knew that the market would start plunging the following week? I wish I had sold all my stocks on February 21st!

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com.

Here is the list of private subscription stocks I have bought and sold since December 2015.

2020 Telecommunications company-sold 14% for a .3% gain

2020 DHI- .4% gain

2020 BioPharma company-sold 40% for a 9% loss

2020 QUAD Graphics-54% gain

2020 Medical equipment company-sold 33% for a 61% gain

2020 Old line media company-sold 50% for a 44% gain

2019 EXFO, 1% gain

2019 PERI, 77% gain

2019 Quantum Corp, sold 48% gain

2019 EXTR, 15% gain

2019 Medical Device company, sold 50% for a 53% gain

2019 DHI Corp, 46% gain

2019 Medical device company, (sold 80%), 69% gain

2019 Lantronix, 41% gain

2019 PDLI, 15% gain

2018 The Rubicon Project 1% gain

2018 Otelco 116% gain.

2018 Global Ship Lease 4% gain

2018 Telecom Services (57% sold) 3% gain

2018 Lantronix, 52% gain

2018 Ceragon Networks, 82% gain

2018 Networking Co. (1/3 sold) 17% gain

2018 Pitney Bowes 31% gain

2018 Calix-1% gain

2018 Xerox 34% gain, Buy-Out

2018 RMG Networks-1% gain

2017 Telecommunications Co., 59% gain (partial sale)

2017 magicJack 17% gain, Buy-Out

2017 eGain 56% gain

2017 YUME 90% gain, Buy-Out

2017 MaxPoint Interactive 60% gain

2017 Shortel 24% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Tremor Video 25% gain

2017 MRV Communications 6% loss, Buy-Out

2017 Ceragon Networks 55% gain

2017 Angie’s List 60% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Lantronix 135% gain

2017 Syneron Medical 46% gain, Buy-Out

2017 RocketFuel 140% gain

2017 Conduent .1% gain

2017 Harmonic 74% gain

2016 Ceragon Networks 48% gain

2016 Alphatec 71% gain

2016 Universal Insurance 36% gain

2016 Mitel Networks 15% gain

2016 Avid Technology 50% gain

2016 Silicon Graphics 70% gain, Buy-Out

2016 Imatron 30% gain

2016 Harmonic 80% gain

2016 United Online 5% loss, Buy-Out

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CSI Update, March 2020-Free Blog

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 71 winners, 19 losers for a 79% win-rate with an average gain of 35.7%.

We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually until they are all sold.

SYNC announced they are merging with QUMU. At first I thought this was a dumb move, but QUMU provides tools to support on-line video, which may work out after all if they can complete the deal.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-reports-strong-fourth-quarter-210500493.html

ATEC continues to grow but is trading above my valuation. I should have sold in the high $7’s when I had the chance.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atec-announces-preliminary-first-quarter-130010697.html

AVID continues to do well, my valuation jumped to $18.71. Their subscriptions business continues to grow, but their storage business will be hurt by the economic impact of the virus.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-technology-issues-business-response-002010051.html

March was a tough month for sure. The virus whacked all of our stocks.

March 2020 Legacy Positions:

SYNC

Share cost $2.56

Current Price $1.02

Lifetime Gain (Loss) (60%)

YTD Loss 33%

Current Valuation $4.31

Price to Value ratio 24%

Prior Valuation $5.05

ATEC

Share cost $7.06

Current Price $3.45

Lifetime Loss 51%

YTD Loss 51%

Current Valuation $5.30

Price to Value ratio 65%

Prior Valuation $5.29

 AVID

Share cost $8.35

Current Price $6.73

Lifetime gain -19%

YTD Loss 22%

Current Valuation $18.71

Price to Value ratio 36%

Prior Valuation $13.52