Cheap Stocks, 8/30/2013 Update

Back to a down week -3.0%%. We are now up 15.9% for the year.

Busy earnings week. CCUR, QADA, MITL, GRVY and DAEG earnings last week..

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.
Check this list:

EXTR
55%
GRVY
147%
CCUR
39%
SIGM
54%
MRVC
44%
AVNW
53%
QADA
27%

The DOW was down 1.3% last week, NASDAQ was down 1.9% and the Russell 3000 was down 1.9%. For the year, the DOW is up 13%, NASDAQ is up 18.9% and the Russell is up 15.4%.

DXM, QADA, MRVC, GRVY and CBEY can still be bought.

Last week we went 4 stocks up and 12 down. Since inception we are now 64 stocks up and 18 down for a 78% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:
2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW  +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR  +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2008-PARL +56%
2009-MBRK +67%
2009-SNWL +14%
2009-CYNO +25%
2009-DTLK +33% (fourth trip on this)
2009-NED +46%
2009-CUTR +13%
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-RNWK +36%
2009-OPK +116%
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)
2010-HPOL +110%
2010-DIVX +25%
2010-CHRD +37% Buyout (2 weeks after we recommended it)
2010-HPOL +30%
2010-MGIC +82%
2010-GSL  +78%
2010-CCEL +49%
2010-HPOL +27% (third trip)
2010-CAW EVEN (excluding 2.5 years of dividends)
2011-DWCH +116%
2011-IPAS +15%
2011-PRM +56% Buyout (1 week after we recommended it)
2011-RST +12%
2011-NINE -10%
2012-BVSN +30%
2012-TISA +137%
2012-PTIX -44%
2012-MTSL +157%
2012-LTUS -98% No more Chinese stocks for us
2012-AEZS -63%  a bad speculation.
2012-RIMG -46% (including dividends)
2012-HPOL +34% (4th trip)
2012-MEDW +133% (Buyout 1 week AFTER we sold this)
2012-SPNC +118%
2012-RWWI +1%
2012-MOTR -29% (lost biggest customer contract)
2013-INUV -83% Held this since 2007. Failed business model.
2013-ASTX-+40%
2013-MGCD-+79%
2013-LXK +2%
2013-AGYS +41%
2013-DRIV+31%

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 66 stocks that we closed out since 2006 (53 were winners) the average net gain was 30%

QAD Inc. (NASDAQ-QADA)-Recommended 6/7/2013)

Buy Price $11.80
NEW Valuation $27.89 (Was $28.27)
Closed up $.46 at $12.38
Earnings announced on August 28th. Pretty good. Revenues were up to $65 million from $61 million last year. Net cash was $3.33 per share and they made $.08 per share. Our valuation was $27.89 only down slightly from our initial valuation.
UP 5% BUY

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price $15.14
Valuation $24.25
Closed down $.07 at $9.27
Earnings announced in August for the June 30thquarter. Not enough detail to do a full valuation even with their 10Q . We will have to wait for a full quarter of combined operations. But, it looks like combined revenues (on a pro-forma basis since the merger was completed April 30th) were $568 million versus $684 million last year and EBITDA was $224 million versus $286 million last year. Using a simple 3.5X EBITDA less net debt valuation and 15 million shares outstanding we come up with a value per share of $30. We didn’t see any big sellers with the announcement, so we think it is just people shocked by the $10 a share loss reported.  We believe this is an overreaction, but will not double up here as there really is a lot of debt and this will need a couple of more quarters of performance before it is proven they can handle the debt and survive for the long term. As far as we can tell they seem to be on track with their plan as filed with the SEC on 12/6/2012.
Paulson & Co, filed a Form 13D on 5/10/2013 disclosing a 10.9% stake. They have held this stake since before the bankruptcy and merger. Then on May 14th, they filed a 13D/A disclosing another 350,000 share buy at prices up to $17.07 bringing their stake to 13%.
Down 39% BUY

XRS Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 2/26/2013)

Buy Price $1.50
Valuation $6.16 ( Was $6.79, $6.50)
Closed down $.10 at $2.69
Earnings announced in August. Ok for such an undervalued company. Revenues were $13.4 million down from $15.6 million last year. Margins grew from 49% to 61% and they made $.07 profit on a Non-GAAP basis versus a $.03 loss last year. The company continues to transition to a software company (less lower margin hardware sales) as software revenues were 84% of revenues versus 76% last year. Our valuation fell to $6.16 a share-still more than double the current stock price.
UP 79%, HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)
NEW Valuation $3.42 (Was $4.64, $4.86, $4.00)
Closed down $.06 at 1.14
Earnings announced August 28th. Hmmm. Revenue fell from $9.6 million to $8 million. They lost $100,000 versus making $300,000 last year. Net debt continued to decline and our valuation fell to $3.42 a share. Disappointing, but the stock is still trading at less than 50% of our valuation.
Kurt Jensen a 10% owner continues to sell stock at almost any price, putting a lid on DAEG. He still has 1.6 million shares, so this could take a while.
Looks like BlueLine Partners (a “strategic opportunities fund”) have shaken up Daegis management in January with the ouster or the CEO and CFO. The interim CEO and Chairman of the Board is a BlueLine founder. Its feeling like they are not happy with the current stock price for sure.
Up 5%, HOLD

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $1.24
Valuation $1.61 (Was $2.19, $2.35, $2.56, $2.24)
Closed down $.09 at $1.00
Earnings announced in August.
Not great (again). Revenues fell to $5.6 million from $6.4 million last year as they lost $1 million of their legacy business and they lost $.09 a share on a Non-GAAP basis versus breakeven last year. iAPPS revenue was 78% of sales up 4% from last year, recurring revenue was up 10% to $1.2 million. They also lowered their guidance for 2013 to revenue of $24.5 million from $25-$26 million. Our valuation fell to $1.61 per share. Based on their 2013 guidance our valuation would be about $1.92 a share. They made a small acquisition with about $2 million in revenue, most of which is recurring. While their iAPPS revenue continues to grow, it appears more slowly. We are changing this to a HOLD.
Down 19%, Hold

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37
Valuation $6.28 (Was $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)
Closed up $.03 at $2.58
Earnings announced in July. Revenues fell from $115 million to $93 million, but most of this sales shortfall was low margin government pass-through business. Gross margin increased to 39% from 30% last year. They lost $700,000 versus a profit of $1.6 million last year. Our valuation actually popped back up to $6.28 as net debt decreased and margins expanded.
Carlo Cannell, an activist investor filled a 13D in September 2012 pointing out how undervalued TSYS is and urged them to put themselves on the block. He points to a valuation done on the company as of August 29th of $7.40 to $11.81 a share. Even the low point here is higher than our valuation.
UP 88%, HOLD

Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ-AVNW)-Recommended 2/27/2012)

Buy Price- $2.62
Valuation $8.60 (Was $9.31, $10.28. $9.03, $9.37, $8.85, $8.31)
Closed down $.18 at $2.54
Earnings announced in August. Bump. Revenues were $109 million compared to $116 million last year, gross margins were 30.8% and they made $.5 million on a Non-GAAP basis versus $1.2 million last year. Net cash per share was $1.34.
Their book-to-bill ratio was 1 this past quarter leading them to give next quarter guidance of $105 to $112 million in revenues and Non-GAAP income of $0 to $.03 per share. Our valuation fell from the huge prior quarter to $8.60, still more than when we recommended AVNW.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 6.05% stake.
Dimension Fund filed a Form 13G in February disclosing a 5.3% stake, Vanguard disclosed a 5.67% stake and Blue Mountain has been buying more and is now up to a 5.90% stake.
Down 3%, BUY

CBeyond Inc. (NASDAQ-CBEY)-Recommended 2/28/2012)

Buy Price $7.17 ( Was $7.94 before another $10,000 added at $6.53)
Valuation $27.58 (Was $28.24, $28.33, $29.04, $29.59, $29.58, $29.21)
Closed down $.36 at $6.56
Earnings announced in July. Nothing to write home about. Sales were $118.2 million versus $123.8 million last year and they lost $41,000 versus making $2.7 million last year. Apparently the earnings were $.05 better than estimates—whoo—hoo.
They also lowered their guidance to $464-$471 million (from $475-$485 million) and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $76-$80 million from $75-$82 million. This was pretty much a non-event to us as our valuation fell a tad to $27.58.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 5.55% stake.
$80 million of EBITDA, $.39 a share in net cash and a $200 market cap. Cheap.
Down 9%, BUY

MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)

Valuation $24.01 (Was $23.06,  $27.15, $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)
Closed at $10.05 up $.05
Earnings announced on 8/9/2013
Revenues were up slightly to $38.2 million from $37.6 million and their loss declined to $1 million from $2.1 million last year. Net cash per share was $4.40 and our valuation rose a bit to $24.01 a share. They say they are continuing to invest in the business and that these should become apparent in 2014. Patience.
Lloyd Miller disclosed a 6.9% stake in February.
Raging Capital bought another 1.6 million shares in the first week of December 2012 at $10.80 bringing their holdings to 20.1% of the company.
Still trading at less than ½ our valuation.
UP 17%  HOLD

Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)

Buy Price-$8.49
Valuation $11.86 (Was $8.24, $13.05, $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed down $.13 at $4.73
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in July showing sales of about 500,000 shares at prices from $4.96 to $5.68 lowering their stake to 6.6%.
Earnings announced in June. At least they did what they said they would do. Revenues were $52.5 million up 31% over last year and they made a penny on a Non-GAAP basis compared to a loss of $.26 last year. Cash rose to $87 million or $2.57 a share and our valuation rose to $11.86.
Guidance from their press release:
“Moving into the second quarter of fiscal 2014, we believe revenue will be in the range of $52.0 to $54.0 million,” Mr. Tran continued. “We expect to see revenue increases in most of our target markets along with a steady non-GAAP gross margin between a range of 52% and 53% driven by higher margin product mix and continued worldwide cost savings. In addition, we expect our non-GAAP operating expenses in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 to be lower compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014,” said Mr. Tran.
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in May disclosing the purchase of another 350,000 shares at prices up to $4.68 a share, bringing their holding to 8.1% of the company.
We will be watching this one very closely and may sell at any time.
Down 44%, HOLD

Mitel Networks (NASDAQ-MITL)-Recommended 7/6/2011)

Buy Price- $3.04( Was $3.36 before $10,000 added, $3.95 before $10,000 added)
NEW Valuation $12.19 (Was $13.81, $12.26, $13.10, $10.95, $13.92, $12.81, $15.28, $14.04, $10.39)
Closed up $.10 at $4.51
Earnings announced on August 29th. Nice quarter. This is MITL’s first quarter (July 31) and is typically a slow quarter due to Europe being on vacation. However, revenues were up to $141.6 versus $138.5 last year and they made $9.3 million or $.17 per share versus $4.1 million or $.08 a share on a Non-GAAP basis. Net debt climbed to $232 million and adjusted EBITDA was $20.6 million versus $12.6 last year. Overall a very good quarter. Our valuation rose to $12.19 versus $10.95 last year.
UP 49%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
NEW Valuation $14.77 (was $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed down $1.01 at $8.02 (including dividends)
Pays $.48 annual dividend.
Earnings announced on August 28th. Not bad. Revenues increased to $14.9 million from $14.7 million last year. Cash rose to $3.11 per share and they were a little better than breakeven (excluding a $2.4 million gain on the sale of some IP). Our valuation was $14.77 a share, up from $13.53 last year.
We have collected $.36 in dividends so far (excluding the $.50 special dividend which reduced our basis).
The Singer/Miller group disclosed in a Form 13D that they  sold about 230,000 shares in late  August at prices of $8.5 to $8.8 a share. They still own 5.9% of the company or about 545,000 shares. Still not good news.
UP 75%, HOLD

Extreme Networks (EXTR-Recommended 3/22/2010)

Buy Price-$3.18 (Was $3.04 before adding another $10,000)
Valuation-$7.33 (was $6.58, $6.99, $6.97, $7.46, $6.31, $7.01, $6.72, $6.45, $5.67, $7.36, $7.23, $7.31, $6.82, $6.81)
Closed at $3.73 down $.13
Earnings announced in July. Mediocre as usual. While revenues were up from $68.2
million last quarter to $79.5 million this quarter, they were down from $87.7 million last year. Gross margin held steady around 55% and they made $.03 a share versus $.08 last year. Cash per share rose to $2.17 and our valuation rose back up to $7.33.
Guidance for next quarter is revenue of $72-$77 million of revenue and Non-GAAP net income of $2-$6 million.
Vanguard filed a Form 13G in March disclosing a 5.21% stake, Wellington disclosed a 6.3% stake and Soros upped his holdings to 9.85%..
Starboard owns 8.8% and Blackrock owns 5.4% of EXTR.
UP 17%, HOLD

Gravity Company Ltd. (GRVY-Recommended 1/18/2010)

Buy Price- $1.45 per ADS (Was $1.68 before double up)
NEW Valuation $3.06-(Was $3.02, $4.14, $3.65, $3.41, $5.52, $5.00, $5.39, $5.33, $5.61, $5.73, $4.38, $4.44, $5.15)
Closed at $1.15 down $.02
Earnings announced on August 29th for the quarter ended June 30, 2013.  Revenues were $11.4 million versus $10.8 million last quarter and they lost $1.5 million. Net cash was still a healthy $45 million or $1.63 per share. Our valuation rose a tad to $3.06 per share.
Lots of product introduction updates in their press release, but not much has been translating to the financials. We continue to wait on GRVY.  The cash position is some insurance, but there needs to be an uptick in their business soon, or we will dump this.
It would be a shame to have to sell this below their cash value.
Down 21%, BUY

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $6.41 (was $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.90 down $.08.
Wynnefield partners bought another 100,000 shares at $2.90 in the first week of July raising their stake to over 10%.
Earnings announced in June. Looking good. Revenues were up 44% to $8.2 million, gross margins remained steady at 77% and although they reported a pre-tax loss of $1.3 million, after you back out the loss on the debt repayment and an asset write-off , they only lost $200k. How much of this was integration costs are not known. They are projecting a return to profitability next quarter and increasing profitability as the integration activity goes on over the next year. Recurring revenue was 93% of total revenue.
If ARI can grow continue to grow their revenue and profits over the next couple of quarters, we think the stock price could approach our valuation. 
Wynnefield Partners filed a 13D/A in April disclosing purchasing another 50,000 shares at $2.50, and now have a 9.95% stake (1.2 million shares) in ARI.
UP 80%, HOLD, Still a Huge valuation gap here.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23,  $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)

Ask price $.26 closed at $.26
Another weak quarter announced in August. Revenues were $3.9 million, flat with last quarter but down from $.45 million last year. They lost $350,000 better than the $440,000 loss last quarter, but worse than the $330,000 profit last year. Our valuation fell to $1.05 a share still more than triple the management buyout price. Cash per share fell to a measly $.03.
Not a peep on the management buyout.
CTIG announced in June that they had hired Duff and Phelps as their independent financial advisor. Guess the Board decided they need to get a fairness opinion to keep down the damages on the lawsuit.
Birbeck and Fairford Holdings made a non-binding offer to buy CTIG in March for $.29 a share. The company formed a special committee to evaluate the offer. Hopefully they will find somebody else who will pay fair value—or at least close to it.
Down 4%. HOLD

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Cheap Stocks, 8/23/2013 Update

Finally, an up week +1.4%. We are now up 18.9% for the year.

No earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

EXTR
53%
GRVY
156%
CCUR
28%
SIGM
53%
MRVC
44%
AVNW
49%
QADA
40%

The DOW was down .5% last week, NASDAQ was up 1.5% and the Russell 3000 was up .7%. For the year, the DOW is up 14.6%, NASDAQ is up 21.1% and the Russell is up 17.6%.

DXM, DAEG, MRVC, GRVY and CBEY can still be bought.

 Last week we went 7 stocks up and 9 down. Since inception we are now 66 stocks up and 16 down for a 80.5% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:
2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW  +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR  +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2008-PARL +56%
2009-MBRK +67%
2009-SNWL +14%
2009-CYNO +25%
2009-DTLK +33% (fourth trip on this)
2009-NED +46%
2009-CUTR +13%
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-RNWK +36%
2009-OPK +116%
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)
2010-HPOL +110%
2010-DIVX +25%
2010-CHRD +37% Buyout (2 weeks after we recommended it)
2010-HPOL +30%
2010-MGIC +82%
2010-GSL  +78%
2010-CCEL +49%
2010-HPOL +27% (third trip)
2010-CAW EVEN (excluding 2.5 years of dividends)
2011-DWCH +116%
2011-IPAS +15%
2011-PRM +56% Buyout (1 week after we recommended it)
2011-RST +12%
2011-NINE -10%
2012-BVSN +30%
2012-TISA +137%
2012-PTIX -44%
2012-MTSL +157%
2012-LTUS -98% No more Chinese stocks for us
2012-AEZS -63%  a bad speculation.
2012-RIMG -46% (including dividends)
2012-HPOL +34% (4th trip)
2012-MEDW +133% (Buyout 1 week AFTER we sold this)
2012-SPNC +118%
2012-RWWI +1%
2012-MOTR -29% (lost biggest customer contract)
2013-INUV -83% Held this since 2007. Failed business model.
2013-ASTX-+40%
2013-MGCD-+79%
2013-LXK +2%
2013-AGYS +41%
2013-DRIV+31%
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 66 stocks that we closed out since 2006 (53 were winners) the average net gain was 30%

QAD Inc. (NASDAQ-QADA)-Recommended 6/7/2013)

Buy Price $11.80
Valuation $28.27
Closed up $.07 at $11.92
Next earnings due out Tuesday, August 27th after the market close.
UP 1% HOLD

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price $15.14
Valuation $24.25
Closed 21 $1.92 at $9.21
Earnings announced in August for the June 30thquarter. Not enough detail to do a full valuation even with their 10Q . We will have to wait for a full quarter of combined operations. But, it looks like combined revenues (on a pro-forma basis since the merger was completed April 30th) were $568 million versus $684 million last year and EBITDA was $224 million versus $286 million last year. Using a simple 3.5X EBITDA less net debt valuation and 15 million shares outstanding we come up with a value per share of $30. We didn’t see any big sellers with the announcement, so we think it is just people shocked by the $10 a share loss reported.  We believe this is an overreaction, but will not double up here as there really is a lot of debt and this will need a couple of more quarters of performance before it is proven they can handle the debt and survive for the long term. As far as we can tell they seem to be on track with their plan as filed with the SEC on 12/6/2012.
Paulson & Co, filed a Form 13D on 5/10/2013 disclosing a 10.9% stake. They have held this stake since before the bankruptcy and merger. Then on May 14th, they filed a 13D/A disclosing another 350,000 share buy at prices up to $17.07 bringing their stake to 13%.
Down 38% BUY

XRS Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 2/26/2013)

Buy Price $1.50
Valuation $6.16 ( Was $6.79, $6.50)
Closed up $.42 at $2.79
Earnings announced in August. Ok for such an undervalued company. Revenues were $13.4 million down from $15.6 million last year. Margins grew from 49% to 61% and they made $.07 profit on a Non-GAAP basis versus a $.03 loss last year. The company continues to transition to a software company (less lower margin hardware sales) as software revenues were 84% of revenues versus 76% last year. Our valuation fell to $6.16 a share-still more than double the current stock price.
UP 86%, HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)
Valuation $4.64 (Was $4.86, $4.00)
Closed down  $.14 at 1.20
Next earnings due out Tuesday, August 27th after the market close.
Kurt Jensen a 10% owner continues to sell stock at almost any price, putting a lid on DAEG. He still has 1.6 million shares, so this could take a while.
Earnings announced in June. Decent. Revenues fell to $9.77 million from $9.81 last year. Margins held at over 70% and net debt decreased to $12.22 million from $13.8 million last quarter. Non-GAAP earnings were $.04 versus a loss of $.03 last year. Our valuation fell from last quarter to $4.64. This is feeling like XRSC, it just needs the stock price to reflect it.
Looks like BlueLine Partners (a “strategic opportunities fund”) have shaken up Daegis management in January with the ouster or the CEO and CFO. The interim CEO and Chairman of the Board is a BlueLine founder. Its feeling like they are not happy with the current stock price for sure.
Up 11%, BUY

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $1.24
Valuation $1.61 (Was $2.19, $2.35, $2.56, $2.24)
Closed down $.02 at $1.09
Earnings announced in August.
Not great (again). Revenues fell to $5.6 million from $6.4 million last year as they lost $1 million of their legacy business and they lost $.09 a share on a Non-GAAP basis versus breakeven last year. iAPPS revenue was 78% of sales up 4% from last year, recurring revenue was up 10% to $1.2 million. They also lowered their guidance for 2013 to revenue of $24.5 million from $25-$26 million. Our valuation fell to $1.61 per share. Based on their 2013 guidance our valuation would be about $1.92 a share. They made a small acquisition with about $2 million in revenue, most of which is recurring. While their iAPPS revenue continues to grow, it appears more slowly. We are changing this to a HOLD.
Down 12%, Hold

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37
Valuation $6.28 (Was $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)
Closed down $.04 at $2.55
Earnings announced in July. Revenues fell from $115 million to $93 million, but most of this sales shortfall was low margin government pass-through business. Gross margin increased to 39% from 30% last year. They lost $700,000 versus a profit of $1.6 million last year. Our valuation actually popped back up to $6.28 as net debt decreased and margins expanded.
Carlo Cannell, an activist investor filled a 13D in September 2012 pointing out how undervalued TSYS is and urged them to put themselves on the block. He points to a valuation done on the company as of August 29th of $7.40 to $11.81 a share. Even the low point here is higher than our valuation.
UP 86%, HOLD

Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ-AVNW)-Recommended 2/27/2012)

Buy Price- $2.62
Valuation $8.60 (Was $9.31, $10.28. $9.03, $9.37, $8.85, $8.31)
Closed up $.26 at $2.72
Earnings announced in August. Bump. Revenues were $109 million compared to $116 million last year, gross margins were 30.8% and they made $.5 million on a Non-GAAP basis versus $1.2 million last year. Net cash per share was $1.34.
Their book-to-bill ratio was 1 this past quarter leading them to give next quarter guidance of $105 to $112 million in revenues and Non-GAAP income of $0 to $.03 per share. Our valuation fell from the huge prior quarter to $8.60, still more than when we recommended AVNW.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 6.05% stake.
Dimension Fund filed a Form 13G in February disclosing a 5.3% stake, Vanguard disclosed a 5.67% stake and Blue Mountain has been buying more and is now up to a 5.90% stake.
Up 4%, BUY

CBeyond Inc. (NASDAQ-CBEY)-Recommended 2/28/2012)

Buy Price $7.17 ( Was $7.94 before another $10,000 added at $6.53)
Valuation $27.58 (Was $28.24, $28.33, $29.04, $29.59, $29.58, $29.21)
Closed up $.17 at $6.92
Earnings announced in July. Nothing to write home about. Sales were $118.2 million versus $123.8 million last year and they lost $41,000 versus making $2.7 million last year. Apparently the earnings were $.05 better than estimates—whoo—hoo.
They also lowered their guidance to $464-$471 million (from $475-$485 million) and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $76-$80 million from $75-$82 million. This was pretty much a non-event to us as our valuation fell a tad to $27.58.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 5.55% stake.
$80 million of EBITDA, $.39 a share in net cash and a $200 market cap. Cheap.
Down 3%, BUY

MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)

Valuation $24.01 (Was $23.06,  $27.15, $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)
Closed at $10.00 up $.50
Earnings announced on 8/9/2013
Revenues were up slightly to $38.2 million from $37.6 million and their loss declined to $1 million from $2.1 million last year. Net cash per share was $4.40 and our valuation rose a bit to $24.01 a share. They say they are continuing to invest in the business and that these should become apparent in 2014. Patience.
Lloyd Miller disclosed a 6.9% stake in February.
Raging Capital bought another 1.6 million shares in the first week of December 2012 at $10.80 bringing their holdings to 20.1% of the company.
Still trading at less than ½ our valuation.
UP 16%  HOLD

Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)

Buy Price-$8.49
Valuation $11.86 (Was $8.24, $13.05, $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed down $.06 at $4.86
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in July showing sales of about 500,000 shares at prices from $4.96 to $5.68 lowering their stake to 6.6%.
Earnings announced in June. At least they did what they said they would do. Revenues were $52.5 million up 31% over last year and they made a penny on a Non-GAAP basis compared to a loss of $.26 last year. Cash rose to $87 million or $2.57 a share and our valuation rose to $11.86.
Guidance from their press release:
“Moving into the second quarter of fiscal 2014, we believe revenue will be in the range of $52.0 to $54.0 million,” Mr. Tran continued. “We expect to see revenue increases in most of our target markets along with a steady non-GAAP gross margin between a range of 52% and 53% driven by higher margin product mix and continued worldwide cost savings. In addition, we expect our non-GAAP operating expenses in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 to be lower compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014,” said Mr. Tran.
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in May disclosing the purchase of another 350,000 shares at prices up to $4.68 a share, bringing their holding to 8.1% of the company.
We will be watching this one very closely and may sell at any time.
Down 43%, HOLD

Mitel Networks (NASDAQ-MITL)-Recommended 7/6/2011)

Buy Price- $3.04( Was $3.36 before $10,000 added, $3.95 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $13.81 (Was $12.26, $13.10, $10.92, $13.92, $12.81, $15.28, $14.04, $10.39)
Closed down $.12 at $4.41
Next earnings due out Thursday, August 29th after the market close.
Earnings announced in June. Pretty good. Down from last year but they exceeded their guidance. Revenues were $150.9 million versus $157.6 million last year. On a Non-GAAP basis they made $.25 a share. For the year they made $.81 on a Non-GAAP basis. MITL is selling at 5X Non-GAAP earnings. Cheap. Our valuation rose to $13.81 a share.
UP 45%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
Valuation $16.26 (was $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed up $.68 at $9.03 (including dividends)
Pays $.48 annual dividend.
Next earnings due out Tuesday, August 27th after the market close.
We have collected $.36 in dividends so far (excluding the $.50 special dividend which reduced our basis).
The Singer/Miller group disclosed in a Form 13D that they  sold about 70,000 shares in June, July and August at prices of $8 to $8.5 a share. They still own 8.4% of the company or about 775,000 shares. Still not good news.
Earnings announced in April. Pretty good we think. Revenues were $16.9 million, up from $16.3 million last year. They had a profit of $937,000 ($.11 per share) versus $337,000 last year. Net cash was $2.52 a share and our valuation rose to $16.26 per share.
UP 97%, HOLD

Extreme Networks (EXTR-Recommended 3/22/2010)

Buy Price-$3.18 (Was $3.04 before adding another $10,000)
Valuation-$7.33 (was $6.58, $6.99, $6.97, $7.46, $6.31, $7.01, $6.72, $6.45, $5.67, $7.36, $7.23, $7.31, $6.82, $6.81)
Closed at $3.86 down $.03
Earnings announced in July. Mediocre as usual. While revenues were up from $68.2
million last quarter to $79.5 million this quarter, they were down from $87.7 million last year. Gross margin held steady around 55% and they made $.03 a share versus $.08 last year. Cash per share rose to $2.17 and our valuation rose back up to $7.33.
Guidance for next quarter is revenue of $72-$77 million of revenue and Non-GAAP net income of $2-$6 million.
Vanguard filed a Form 13G in March disclosing a 5.21% stake, Wellington disclosed a 6.3% stake and Soros upped his holdings to 9.85%..
Starboard owns 8.8% and Blackrock owns 5.4% of EXTR.
UP 22%, HOLD

Gravity Company Ltd. (GRVY-Recommended 1/18/2010)

Buy Price- $1.45 per ADS (Was $1.68 before double up)
Valuation $4.14-(Was $3.65, $3.41, $5.52, $5.00, $5.39, $5.33, $5.61, $5.73, $4.38, $4.44, $5.15)
Closed at $1.17 up $.03
Gravity reported their Q1 results in May. Revenues were down YOY by 28% to $10.8 million and they lost $1.5 million or $.21 per share. By far the worst results since we have owned GRVY. Cash per share fell to $1.69 ($47 million). Not much good news to report although it looks like Rangarok Online is doing OK in Korea and they re-launched it in China in February.
Still trading below cash value, but operations are not looking robust at all. We may have to dump this one, but will hold on for a bit longer to see if they can turn things around. It would be a shame to have to sell this below their cash value.
Down 20%, BUY

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $6.41 (was $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.98 up $.11.
Wynnefield partners bought another 100,000 shares at $2.90 in the first week of July raising their stake to over 10%.
Earnings announced in June. Looking good. Revenues were up 44% to $8.2 million, gross margins remained steady at 77% and although they reported a pre-tax loss of $1.3 million, after you back out the loss on the debt repayment and an asset write-off , they only lost $200k. How much of this was integration costs are not known. They are projecting a return to profitability next quarter and increasing profitability as the integration activity goes on over the next year. Recurring revenue was 93% of total revenue.
If ARI can grow continue to grow their revenue and profits over the next couple of quarters, we think the stock price could approach our valuation. 
Wynnefield Partners filed a 13D/A in April disclosing purchasing another 50,000 shares at $2.50, and now have a 9.95% stake (1.2 million shares) in ARI.
UP 85%, HOLD, Still a Huge valuation gap here.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23,  $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.29 closed at $.29
Another weak quarter announced in August. Revenues were $3.9 million, flat with last quarter but down from $.45 million last year. They lost $350,000 better than the $440,000 loss last quarter, but worse than the $330,000 profit last year. Our valuation fell to $1.05 a share still more than triple the management buyout price. Cash per share fell to a measly $.03.
Not a peep on the management buyout.
CTIG announced in June that they had hired Duff and Phelps as their independent financial advisor. Guess the Board decided they need to get a fairness opinion to keep down the damages on the lawsuit.
Birbeck and Fairford Holdings made a non-binding offer to buy CTIG in March for $.29 a share. The company formed a special committee to evaluate the offer. Hopefully they will find somebody else who will pay fair value—or at least close to it.
UP 2%. HOLD

Cheap Stocks, 8/16/2013 Update

Another lousy week. We were down 3.2%. DXM continued to slide.
We are now up 17.6% for the year.

BLIN, AVNW  and CTIG earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

EXTR
52%
GRVY
160%
CCUR
30%
SIGM
52%
MRVC
46%
AVNW
55%
QADA
40%

The DOW was down 2.2% last week, NASDAQ was down 1.6% and the Russell 3000 was down 3.2%. For the year, the DOW is up 15.1%, NASDAQ is up 19.3% and the Russell is up 16.7%.

DXM, DAEG, MRVC, GRVY and CBEY can still be bought.

Last week we went 2 stocks up, 12 down and 2 even. Since inception we are now 65 stocks up and 17 down for a 79.3% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).
Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:
2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW  +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR  +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2008-PARL +56%
2009-MBRK +67%
2009-SNWL +14%
2009-CYNO +25%
2009-DTLK +33% (fourth trip on this)
2009-NED +46%
2009-CUTR +13%
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-RNWK +36%
2009-OPK +116%
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)
2010-HPOL +110%
2010-DIVX +25%
2010-CHRD +37% Buyout (2 weeks after we recommended it)
2010-HPOL +30%
2010-MGIC +82%
2010-GSL  +78%
2010-CCEL +49%
2010-HPOL +27% (third trip)
2010-CAW EVEN (excluding 2.5 years of dividends)
2011-DWCH +116%
2011-IPAS +15%
2011-PRM +56% Buyout (1 week after we recommended it)
2011-RST +12%
2011-NINE -10%
2012-BVSN +30%
2012-TISA +137%
2012-PTIX -44%
2012-MTSL +157%
2012-LTUS -98% No more Chinese stocks for us
2012-AEZS -63%  a bad speculation.
2012-RIMG -46% (including dividends)
2012-HPOL +34% (4th trip)
2012-MEDW +133% (Buyout 1 week AFTER we sold this)
2012-SPNC +118%
2012-RWWI +1%
2012-MOTR -29% (lost biggest customer contract)
2013-INUV -83% Held this since 2007. Failed business model.
2013-ASTX-+40%
2013-MGCD-+79%
2013-LXK +2%
2013-AGYS +41%
2013-DRIV+31%

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 66 stocks that we closed out since 2006 (53 were winners) the average net gain was 30%.

QAD Inc. (NASDAQ-QADA)-Recommended 6/7/2013)
Buy Price $11.80
Valuation $28.27
Closed down $.74 at $11.85
Next earnings due out Tuesday, August 27th after the market close.
UP 1% HOLD

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price $15.14
Valuation $24.25
Closed down $1.92 at $9.55
Earnings announced in August for the June 30thquarter. Not enough detail to do a full valuation even with their 10Q . We will have to wait for a full quarter of combined operations. But, it looks like combined revenues (on a pro-forma basis since the merger was completed April 30th) were $568 million versus $684 million last year and EBITDA was $224 million versus $286 million last year. Using a simple 3.5X EBITDA less net debt valuation and 15 million shares outstanding we come up with a value per share of $30. We didn’t see any big sellers with the announcement, so we think it is just people shocked by the $10 a share loss reported.  We believe this is an overreaction, but will not double up here as there really is a lot of debt and this will need a couple of more quarters of performance before it is proven they can handle the debt and survive for the long term. As far as we can tell they seem to be on track with their plan as filed with the SEC on 12/6/2012. People thought Pitney Bowes and Lexmark were dead also.
Paulson & Co, filed a Form 13D on 5/10/2013 disclosing a 10.9% stake. They have held this stake
since before the bankruptcy and merger. Then on May 14th, they filed a 13D/A disclosing another 350,000 share buy at prices up to $17.07 bringing their stake to 13%.
Down 37% BUY

XRS Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 2/26/2013)

Buy Price $1.50
Valuation $6.16 ( Was $6.79, $6.50)
Closed up $.01 at $2.37
Earnings announced in August. Ok for such an undervalued company. Revenues were $13.4 million down from $15.6 million last year. Margins grew from 49% to 61% and they made $.07 profit on a Non-GAAP basis versus a $.03 loss last year. The company continues to transition to a software company (less lower margin hardware sales) as software revenues were 84% of revenues versus 76% last year. Our valuation fell to $6.16 a share-still more than double the current stock price.
UP 57%, HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)
Valuation $4.64 (Was $4.86, $4.00)
Closed down  $.03 at 1.34
Next earnings due out Tuesday, August 27th after the market close.
Kurt Jensen a 10% owner continues to sell stock at almost any price, putting a lid on DAEG. He still has 1.6 million shares, so this could take a while.
Earnings announced in June. Decent. Revenues fell to $9.77 million from $9.81 last year. Margins held at over 70% and net debt decreased to $12.22 million from $13.8 million last quarter. Non-GAAP earnings were $.04 versus a loss of $.03 last year. Our valuation fell from last quarter to $4.64. This is feeling like XRSC, it just needs the stock price to reflect it.
Looks like BlueLine Partners (a “strategic opportunities fund”) have shaken up Daegis management in January with the ouster or the CEO and CFO. The interim CEO and Chairman of the Board is a BlueLine founder. Its feeling like they are not happy with the current stock price for sure.
Up 24%, BUY

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $1.24
NEW Valuation $1.61 (Was $2.19, $2.35, $2.56, $2.24)
Closed down $.14 at $1.11
Earnings announced last week.
Not great (again). Revenues fell to $5.6 million from $6.4 million last year as they lost $1 million of their legacy business and they lost $.09 a share on a Non-GAAP basis versus breakeven last year. iAPPS revenue was 78% of sales up 4% from last year, recurring revenue was up 10% to $1.2 million. They also lowered their guidance for 2013 to revenue of $24.5 million from $25-$26 million. Our valuation fell to $1.61 per share. Based on their 2013 guidance our valuation would be about $1.92 a share. They made a small acquisition with about $2 million in revenue, most of which is recurring. While their iAPPS revenue continues to grow, it appears more slowly. We are changing this to a HOLD.
Down 11%, Hold

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37
Valuation $6.28 (Was $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)
Closed down $.10 at $2.59
Earnings announced in July. Revenues fell from $115 million to $93 million, but most of this sales shortfall was low margin government pass-through business. Gross margin increased to 39% from 30% last year. They lost $700,000 versus a profit of $1.6 million last year. Our valuation actually popped back up to $6.28 as net debt decreased and margins expanded.
Carlo Cannell, an activist investor filled a 13D in September 2012 pointing out how undervalued TSYS is and urged them to put themselves on the block. He points to a valuation done on the company as of August 29th of $7.40 to $11.81 a share. Even the low point here is higher than our valuation.
UP 89%, HOLD

Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ-AVNW)-Recommended 2/27/2012)

Buy Price- $2.62
NEW Valuation $8.60 (Was $9.31, $10.28. $9.03, $9.37, $8.85, $8.31)
Closed down $.20 at $2.46
Earnings announced last week. Bump. Revenues were $109 million compared to $116 million last year, gross margins were 30.8% and they made $.5 million on a Non-GAAP basis versus $1.2 million last year. Net cash per share was $1.34.
Their book-to-bill ratio was 1 this past quarter leading them to give next quarter guidance of $105 to $112 million in revenues and Non-GAAP income of $0 to $.03 per share. Our valuation fell from the huge prior quarter to $8.60, still more than when we recommended AVNW.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 6.05% stake.
Dimension Fund filed a Form 13G in February disclosing a 5.3% stake, Vanguard disclosed a 5.67% stake and Blue Mountain has been buying more and is now up to a 5.90% stake.
Down 6%, BUY

CBeyond Inc. (NASDAQ-CBEY)-Recommended 2/28/2012)

Buy Price $7.17 ( Was $7.94 before another $10,000 added at $6.53)
Valuation $27.58 (Was $28.24, $28.33, $29.04, $29.59, $29.58, $29.21)
Closed down $.03 at $6.75
Earnings announced in July. Nothing to write home about. Sales were $118.2 million versus $123.8 million last year and they lost $41,000 versus making $2.7 million last year. Apparently the earnings were $.05 better than estimates—whoo—hoo.
They also lowered their guidance to $464-$471 million (from $475-$485 million) and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $76-$80 million from $75-$82 million. This was pretty much a non-event to us as our valuation fell a tad to $27.58.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 5.55% stake.
$80 million of EBITDA, $.39 a share in net cash and a $200 market cap. Cheap.
Down 6%, BUY

MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)

Valuation $24.01 (Was $23.06,  $27.15, $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)
Closed at $9.50 down $.45
Earnings announced on 8/9/2013
Revenues were up slightly to $38.2 million from $37.6 million and their loss declined to $1 million from $2.1 million last year. Net cash per share was $4.40 and our valuation rose a bit to $24.01 a share. They say they are continuing to invest in the business and that these should become apparent in 2014. Patience.
Lloyd Miller disclosed a 6.9% stake in February.
Raging Capital bought another 1.6 million shares in the first week of December 2012 at $10.80 bringing their holdings to 20.1% of the company.
Still trading at less than ½ our valuation.
UP 11%  HOLD

Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)

Buy Price-$8.49
Valuation $11.86 (Was $8.24, $13.05, $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed down $.24 at $4.92
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in July showing sales of about 500,000 shares at prices from $4.96 to $5.68 lowering their stake to 6.6%.
Earnings announced in June. At least they did what they said they would do. Revenues were $52.5 million up 31% over last year and they made a penny on a Non-GAAP basis compared to a loss of $.26 last year. Cash rose to $87 million or $2.57 a share and our valuation rose to $11.86.
Guidance from their press release:
“Moving into the second quarter of fiscal 2014, we believe revenue will be in the range of $52.0 to $54.0 million,” Mr. Tran continued. “We expect to see revenue increases in most of our target markets along with a steady non-GAAP gross margin between a range of 52% and 53% driven by higher margin product mix and continued worldwide cost savings. In addition, we expect our non-GAAP operating expenses in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 to be lower compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014,” said Mr. Tran.
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in May disclosing the purchase of another 350,000 shares at prices up to $4.68 a share, bringing their holding to 8.1% of the company.
We will be watching this one very closely and may sell at any time.
Down 42%, HOLD

Mitel Networks (NASDAQ-MITL)-Recommended 7/6/2011)

Buy Price- $3.04( Was $3.36 before $10,000 added, $3.95 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $13.81 (Was $12.26, $13.10, $10.92, $13.92, $12.81, $15.28, $14.04, $10.39)
Closed down $.15 at $4.53
Next earnings due out Thursday, August 29th after the market close.
Earnings announced in June. Pretty good. Down from last year but they exceeded their guidance. Revenues were $150.9 million versus $157.6 million last year. On a Non-GAAP basis they made $.25 a share. For the year they made $.81 on a Non-GAAP basis. MITL is selling at 5X Non-GAAP earnings. Cheap. Our valuation rose to $13.81 a share.
UP 49%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
Valuation $16.26 (was $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed up $.18 at $8.35 (including dividends)
Pays $.48 annual dividend.
Next earnings due out Tuesday, August 27th after the market close.
We have collected $.36 in dividends so far (excluding the $.50 special dividend which reduced our basis).
The Singer/Miller group disclosed in a Form 13D that they  sold about 70,000 shares in June, July and August at prices of $8 to $8.5 a share. They still own 8.4% of the company or about 775,000 shares. Still not good news.
Earnings announced in April. Pretty good we think. Revenues were $16.9 million, up from $16.3 million last year. They had a profit of $937,000 ($.11 per share) versus $337,000 last year. Net cash was $2.52 a share and our valuation rose to $16.26 per share.
UP 83%, HOLD

Extreme Networks (EXTR-Recommended 3/22/2010)

Buy Price-$3.18 (Was $3.04 before adding another $10,000)
Valuation-$7.33 (was $6.58, $6.99, $6.97, $7.46, $6.31, $7.01, $6.72, $6.45, $5.67, $7.36, $7.23, $7.31, $6.82, $6.81)
Closed at $3.89 down $.19
Earnings announced in July. Mediocre as usual. While revenues were up from $68.2
million last quarter to $79.5 million this quarter, they were down from $87.7 million last year. Gross margin held steady around 55% and they made $.03 a share versus $.08 last year. Cash per share rose to $2.17 and our valuation rose back up to $7.33.
Guidance for next quarter is revenue of $72-$77 million of revenue and Non-GAAP net income of $2-$6 million.
Vanguard filed a Form 13G in March disclosing a 5.21% stake, Wellington disclosed a 6.3% stake and Soros upped his holdings to 9.85%..
Starboard owns 8.8% and Blackrock owns 5.4% of EXTR.
UP 22%, HOLD

Gravity Company Ltd. (GRVY-Recommended 1/18/2010)

Buy Price- $1.45 per ADS (Was $1.68 before double up)
Valuation $4.14-(Was $3.65, $3.41, $5.52, $5.00, $5.39, $5.33, $5.61, $5.73, $4.38, $4.44, $5.15)
Closed at $1.14 down $.03
Gravity reported their Q1 results in May. Revenues were down YOY by 28% to $10.8 million and they lost $1.5 million or $.21 per share. By far the worst results since we have owned GRVY. Cash per share fell to $1.69 ($47 million). Not much good news to report although it looks like Rangarok Online is doing OK in Korea and they re-launched it in China in February.
Still trading below cash value, but operations are not looking robust at all. We may have to dump this one, but will hold on for a bit longer to see if they can turn things around. It would be a shame to have to sell this below their cash value.
Down 22%, BUY

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $6.41 (was $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.87 unchanged.
Wynnefield partners bought another 100,000 shares at $2.90 in the first week of July raising their stake to over 10%.
Earnings announced in June. Looking good. Revenues were up 44% to $8.2 million, gross margins remained steady at 77% and although they reported a pre-tax loss of $1.3 million, after you back out the loss on the debt repayment and an asset write-off , they only lost $200k. How much of this was integration costs are not known. They are projecting a return to profitability next quarter and increasing profitability as the integration activity goes on over the next year. Recurring revenue was 93% of total revenue.
If ARI can grow continue to grow their revenue and profits over the next couple of quarters, we think the stock price could approach our valuation. 
Wynnefield Partners filed a 13D/A in April disclosing purchasing another 50,000 shares at $2.50, and now have a 9.95% stake (1.2 million shares) in ARI.
UP 78%, HOLD, Still a Huge valuation gap here.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask,
NEW Valuation $1.05 (Was $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23,  $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.29 closed at $.29
Another weak quarter announced last week. Revenues were $3.9 million, flat with last quarter but down from $.45 million last year. They lost $350,000 better than the $440,000 loss last quarter, but worse than the $330,000 profit last year. Our valuation fell to $1.05 a share still more than triple the management buyout price. Cash per share fell to a measly $.03.
Not a peep on the management buyout.
CTIG announced in June that they had hired Duff and Phelps as their independent financial advisor. Guess the Board decided they need to get a fairness opinion to keep down the damages on the lawsuit.
Birbeck and Fairford Holdings made a non-binding offer to buy CTIG in March for $.29 a share. The company formed a special committee to evaluate the offer. Hopefully they will find somebody else who will pay fair value—or at least close to it.
UP 7%. HOLD

Cheap Stocks, 8/9/2013 LATE update

Well MRVC announced earnings late this afternoon. Below is the update on them.

MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)
Valuation $27.15 (Was $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)
Closed at $9.95 down $.55
Earnings announced on 8/9/2013.
Revenues were up slightly to $38.2 million and their loss declined to $1 million from $2.1 million last year. Net cash per share was $4.40 and our valuation rose a bit to $24.01 a share. They say they are continuing to invest in the business and that these should become apparent in 2014. Patience.
Lloyd Miller disclosed a 6.9% stake in February.
Raging Capital bought another 1.6 million shares in the first week of December 2012 at $10.80 bringing their holdings to 20.1% of the company.
Still trading at less than ½ our valuation.
UP 16%  HOLD

Cheap Stocks, 8/9/2013 Update

Terrible week for us, down 5%. Both DEXM and XRSC got slammed for their earnings reports.  We just don’t see this as warranted.

We are now up 20.7% for the year.
DEXM, XRSC earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.
Check this list:

EXTR
50%
GRVY
156%
CCUR
31%
SIGM
50%
MRVC
49%
AVNW
52%
QADA
38%

The DOW was down 1.5% last week, NASDAQ was down .8% and the Russell 3000 was down 1.1%. For the year, the DOW is up 17.8%, NASDAQ is up 21.2% and the Russell is up 20.7%.

DXM, DAEG, BLIN, MRVC, GRVY and CBEY can still be bought.

Last week we went 3 stocks up, 12 down and 1 even. Since inception we are now 67 stocks up and 15 down for a 81.7% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).
Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:
2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW  +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR  +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out by IBM)
2008-PARL +56%
2009-MBRK +67%
2009-SNWL +14%
2009-CYNO +25%
2009-DTLK +33% (fourth trip on this)
2009-NED +46%
2009-CUTR +13%
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-RNWK +36%
2009-OPK +116%
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)
2010-HPOL +110%
2010-DIVX +25%
2010-CHRD +37% Buyout (2 weeks after we recommended it)
2010-HPOL +30%
2010-MGIC +82%
2010-GSL  +78%
2010-CCEL +49%
2010-HPOL +27% (third trip)
2010-CAW EVEN (excluding 2.5 years of dividends)
2011-DWCH +116%
2011-IPAS +15%
2011-PRM +56% Buyout (1 week after we recommended it)
2011-RST +12%
2011-NINE -10%
2012-BVSN +30%
2012-TISA +137%
2012-PTIX -44%
2012-MTSL +157%
2012-LTUS -98% No more Chinese stocks for us
2012-AEZS -63%  a bad speculation.
2012-RIMG -46% (including dividends)
2012-HPOL +34% (4th trip)
2012-MEDW +133% (Buyout 1 week AFTER we sold this)
2012-SPNC +118%
2012-RWWI +1%
2012-MOTR -29% (lost biggest customer contract)
2013-INUV -83% Held this since 2007. Failed business model.
2013-ASTX-+40%
2013-MGCD-+79%
2013-LXK +2%
2013-AGYS +41%
2013-DRIV+31%

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 65 stocks that we closed out since 2006 (53 were winners) the average net gain was 30%

QAD Inc. (NASDAQ-QADA)-Recommended 6/7/2013)

Buy Price $11.80
Valuation $28.27
Closed down $.46 at $12.46
Next earnings due out Tuesday, August 27th after the market close.
UP 7% HOLD

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price $15.14
Valuation $24.25
Closed down $4.18 at $11.47
Earnings announced last week for the June 30thquarter. Not enough detail to do a full valuation and hopefully the 10Q will fix that. But, it looks like combined revenues (on a pro-forma basis since the merger was completed April 30th) were $568 million versus $684 million last year and EBITDA was $224 million versus $286 million last year. Using a simple 3.5X EBITDA less net debt valuation and 15 million shares outstanding we come up with a value per share of $30. We didn’t see any big sellers last week, so we think it is just people shocked by the $10 a share loss reported.  We believe this is an overreaction, but will not double up here as there really is a lot of debt and this will need a couple of more quarters of performance before it is proven they can handle the debt and survive for the long term. As far as we can tell they seem to be on track with their plan as filed with the SEC on 12/6/2012.
Paulson & Co, filed a Form 13D on 5/10/2013 disclosing a 10.9% stake. They have held this stake since before the bankruptcy and merger. Then on May 14th, they filed a 13D/A disclosing another 350,000 share buy at prices up to $17.07 bringing their stake to 13%.
Down 24% BUY

XRS Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 2/26/2013)

Buy Price $1.50
NEW Valuation $6.16 ( Was $6.79, $6.50)
Closed down $.44 at $2.36
Earnings announced last week. Ok for such an undervalued company. Revenues were $13.4 million down from $15.6 million last year. Margins grew from 49% to 61% and they made $.07 profit on a Non-GAAP basis versus a $.03 loss last year. The company continues to transition to a software company (less lower margin hardware sales) as software revenues were 84% of revenues versus 76% last year. Our valuation fell to $6.16 a share-still more than double the current stock price.
UP 57%, HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)
Valuation $4.64 (Was $4.86, $4.00)
Closed down  $.16 at 1.37
Kurt Jensen a 10% owner continues to sell stock at almost any price, putting a lid on DAEG. He still has 1.6 million shares, so this could take a while.
Earnings announced in June. Decent. Revenues fell to $9.77 million from $9.811 last year. Margins held at over 70% and net debt decreased to $12.22 million from $13.8 million last quarter. Non-GAAP earnings were $.04 versus a loss of $.03 last year. Our valuation fell from last quarter to $4.64. This is feeling like XRSC, it just needs the stock price to reflect it.
Looks like BlueLine Partners (a “strategic opportunities fund”) have shaken up Daegis management in January with the ouster or the CEO and CFO. The interim CEO and Chairman of the Board is a BlueLine founder. Its feeling like they are not happy with the current stock price for sure.
Up 26%, BUY

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $1.24
Valuation $2.19 (Was $2.35, $2.56, $2.24)
Closed unchanged at $1.25
Next earnings due out Wednesday, August 14thafter the market close.
Earnings announced in May. Not great on the surface but all still looks good for BLIN going forward. Revenues fell to $6 million from $6.7 million last year and they lost $.03 a share on a Non-GAAP basis versus a $.01 profit last year. iAPPS revenue was 78% of sales up 9% from last year, recurring revenue was up 30% to $1.3 million. They also lowered their guidance for 2013 to revenue of $25-$26 million from $27 to $28 million. It looks like the reason for this is that their average deal size had doubled and it takes longer to deploy their software—which stretches out the revenue recognition period. We would recommend reading the conference call transcript where they give great detail on the business and forecast. Our valuation fell to $2.19 per share, but we still like the prospects here. It looks a bit like HSTM.
Up 1%, BUY

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37
Valuation $6.28 (Was $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)
Closed down $.08 at $2.71
Earnings announced in July. Revenues fell from $115 million to $93 million, but most of this sales shortfall was low margin government pass-through business. Gross margin increased to 39% from 30% last year. They lost $700,000 versus a profit of $1.6 million last year. Our valuation actually popped back up to $6.28 as net debt decreased and margins expanded.
Carlo Cannell, an activist investor filled a 13D in September 2012 pointing out how undervalued TSYS is and urged them to put themselves on the block. He points to a valuation done on the company as of August 29th of $7.40 to $11.81 a share. Even the low point here is higher than our valuation.
UP 96%, HOLD

Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ-AVNW)-Recommended 2/27/2012)

Buy Price- $2.62
Valuation $9.31 (Was $10.28. $9.03, $9.37, $8.85, $8.31)
Closed up $.05 at $2.66
Earnings announced in May. Decent we think, but we were the only one. Revenues were $118 million compared to $112 million last year, gross margins were 29.1% and they made $1.2 million on a Non-GAAP basis versus $2.2 million last year. The current quarter included a $1.1 million inventory write-off for a bankrupt customer. Net cash per share was $1.38.
Their book-to-bill ratio was less than 1 this past quarter leading them to give next quarter guidance of $105 to $115 million in revenues and Non-GAAP income of $0 to $.03 per share. Not setting the world on fire, but doing ok. Our valuation fell from the huge prior quarter to $9.31—a $1 a share more than when we recommended AVNW.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 6.05% stake.
Dimension Fund filed a Form 13G in February disclosing a 5.3% stake, Vanguard disclosed a 5.67% stake and Blue Mountain has been buying more and is now up to a 5.90% stake.
UP 2%, BUY

CBeyond Inc. (NASDAQ-CBEY)-Recommended 2/28/2012)

Buy Price $7.17 ( Was $7.94 before another $10,000 added at $6.53)
Valuation $27.58 (Was $28.24, $28.33, $29.04, $29.59, $29.58, $29.21)
Closed down $.23 at $6.78
Earnings announced in July. Nothing to write home about. Sales were $118.2 million versus $123.8 million last year and they lost $41,000 versus making $2.7 million last year. Apparently the earnings were $.05 better than estimates—whoo—hoo.
They also lowered their guidance to $464-$471 million (from $475-$485 million) and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $76-$80 million from $75-$82 million. This was pretty much a non-event to us as our valuation fell a tad to $27.58.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 5.55% stake.
$80 million of EBITDA, $.68 a share in net cash and a $230 market cap. Cheap.
Down 5%, BUY

MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)

Valuation $27.15 (Was $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)
Closed at $9.95 down $.55
Earnings announced in April. Not bad, but not great. Sales were $46 million up slightly from $44.7 last year. They lost $3.1 million pre-tax which included $1.6 million of litigation costs and $400,000 of share based compensation (vapor cost). Net cash was $4.59 per share and our valuation was $27.15.
Lloyd Miller disclosed a 6.9% stake in February.
The 20 for 1 stock split happened in December, so all the share information has been adjusted.
Raging Capital bought another 1.6 million shares in the first week of December at $10.80 bringing their holdings to 20.1% of the company.
Still trading at less than ½ our valuation.
UP 16%  HOLD

Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)

Buy Price-$8.49
Valuation $11.86 (Was $8.24, $13.05, $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed down $.10 at $5.16
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in July showing sales of about 500,000 shares at prices from $4.96 to $5.68 lowering their stake to 6.6%.
Earnings announced in June. At least they did what they said they would do. Revenues were $52.5 million up 31% over last year and they made a penny on a Non-GAAP basis compared to a loss of $.26 last year. Cash rose to $87 million or $2.57 a share and our valuation rose to $11.86.
Guidance from their press release:
“Moving into the second quarter of fiscal 2014, we believe revenue will be in the range of $52.0 to $54.0 million,” Mr. Tran continued. “We expect to see revenue increases in most of our target markets along with a steady non-GAAP gross margin between a range of 52% and 53% driven by higher margin product mix and continued worldwide cost savings. In addition, we expect our non-GAAP operating expenses in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 to be lower compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014,” said Mr. Tran.
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in May disclosing the purchase of another 350,000 shares at prices up to $4.68 a share, bringing their holding to 8.1% of the company.
We will be watching this one very closely and may sell at any time.
Down 39%, HOLD

Mitel Networks (NASDAQ-MITL)-Recommended 7/6/2011)

Buy Price- $3.04( Was $3.36 before $10,000 added, $3.95 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $13.81 (Was $12.26, $13.10, $10.92, $13.92, $12.81, $15.28, $14.04, $10.39)
Closed down $.16 at $4.68
Earnings announced in June. Pretty good. Down from last year but they exceeded their guidance. Revenues were $150.9 million versus $157.6 million last year. On a Non-GAAP basis they made $.25 a share. For the year they made $.81 on a Non-GAAP basis. MITL is selling at 5X Non-GAAP earnings. Cheap. Our valuation rose to $13.81 a share.
UP 54%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
Valuation $16.26 (was $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed down $.41 at $8.17 (including dividends)
Pays $.48 annual dividend.
We have collected (or will soon collect) $.36 in dividends so far (excluding the $.50 special dividend which reduced our basis).
The Singer/Miller group disclosed in a Form 13D that they  sold about 70,000 shares in June, July and August at prices of $8 to $8.5 a share. They still own 8.4% of the company or about 775,000 shares. Still not good news.
Earnings announced in April. Pretty good we think. Revenues were $16.9 million, up from $16.3 million last year. They had a profit of $937,000 ($.11 per share) versus $337,000 last year. Net cash was $2.52 a share and our valuation rose to $16.26 per share.
UP 78%, HOLD

Extreme Networks (EXTR-Recommended 3/22/2010)

Buy Price-$3.18 (Was $3.04 before adding another $10,000)
Valuation-$7.33 (was $6.58, $6.99, $6.97, $7.46, $6.31, $7.01, $6.72, $6.45, $5.67, $7.36, $7.23, $7.31, $6.82, $6.81)
Closed at $4.08 down $.04
Earnings announced in July. Mediocre as usual. While revenues were up from $68.2
million last quarter to $79.5 million this quarter, they were down from $87.7 million last year. Gross margin held steady around 55% and they made $.03 a share versus $.08 last year. Cash per share rose to $2.17 and our valuation rose back up to $7.33.
Guidance for next quarter is revenue of $72-$77 million of revenue and Non-GAAP net income of $2-$6 million.
Vanguard filed a Form 13G in March disclosing a 5.21% stake, Wellington disclosed a 6.3% stake and Soros upped his holdings to 9.85%..
Starboard owns 8.8% and Blackrock owns 5.4% of EXTR.
UP 28%, HOLD

Gravity Company Ltd. (GRVY-Recommended 1/18/2010)

Buy Price- $1.45 per ADS (Was $1.68 before double up)
Valuation $4.14-(Was $3.65, $3.41, $5.52, $5.00, $5.39, $5.33, $5.61, $5.73, $4.38, $4.44, $5.15)
Closed at $1.17 up $.01
Gravity reported their Q1 results in May. Revenues were down YOY by 28% to $10.8 million and they lost $1.5 million or $.21 per share. By far the worst results since we have owned GRVY. Cash per share fell to $1.69 ($47 million). Not much good news to report although it looks like Rangarok Online is doing OK in Korea and they re-launched it in China in February.
Still trading below cash value, but operations are not looking robust at all. We may have to dump this one, but will hold on for a bit longer to see if they can turn things around. It would be a shame to have to sell this below their cash value.
Down 20%, BUY

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $6.41 (was $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.87 down $.03
Wynnefield partners bought another 100,000 shares at $2.90 in the first week of July raising their stake to over 10%.
Earnings announced in June. Looking good. Revenues were up 44% to $8.2 million, gross margins remained steady at 77% and although they reported a pre-tax loss of $1.3 million, after you back out the loss on the debt repayment and an asset write-off , they only lost $200k. How much of this was integration costs are not known. They are projecting a return to profitability next quarter and increasing profitability as the integration activity goes on over the next year. Recurring revenue was 93% of total revenue.
If ARI can grow continue to grow their revenue and profits over the next couple of quarters, we think the stock price could approach our valuation. 
Wynnefield Partners filed a 13D/A in April disclosing purchasing another 50,000 shares at $2.50, and now have a 9.95% stake (1.2 million shares) in ARI.
UP 78%, HOLD, Still a Huge valuation gap here.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $1.07 (Was $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23,  $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.29 closed at $.29
Interestingly, Veramark another tiny telecom software company that we have long followed was recently being bought for $1.18 a share. Our valuation on it was $1.66. This offer was received after an initial offer of $.98. So it finally went for 71% of our valuation. CTIG would need to sell for $.76 a share to be equivalent.
CTIG announced in June that they had hired Duff and Phelps as their independent financial advisor. Guess the Board decided they need to get a fairness opinion to keep down the damages on the lawsuit.
Earnings announced in May. Not good, but I expected worse given they are trying to buy out the company on the cheap. Revenues were $3.885 million versus $.368 million last year. Gross margins held firm at 73%, but they lost $443,000 compared to a profit of $25,000 last year. Cash per share fell to $.06 and our valuation dropped to $1.07—still triple the current trading price.
Birbeck and Fairford Holdings made a non-binding offer to buy CTIG in March for $.29 a share. The company formed a special committee to evaluate the offer. Hopefully they will find somebody else who will pay fair value—or at least close to it.
UP 7%. HOLD

Cheap Stocks, 8/2/2013 Update

Another decent week. We were up 1.2% even with CBEY getting whacked on tepid earnings. We are now up 25.7% for the year.

EXTR, CBEY earnings last week.
Not one takeover so far this year. We feel left out.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.
Check this list:

EXTR
49%
GRVY
157%
CCUR
29%
SIGM
49%
MRVC
46%
AVNW
53%
QADA
36%

The DOW was up .6% last week, NASDAQ was up 2.1% and the Russell 3000 was up 1.2%. For the year, the DOW is up 19.5%, NASDAQ is up 22.2% and the Russell is up 20.7%.
DXM, BLIN, MRVC, GRVY and CBEY can still be bought.

Last week we went 8 stocks up, 7 down and 1 even. Since inception we are now 67 stocks up and 15 down for a 81.7% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).
Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:
2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW  +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR  +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2008-PARL +56%
2009-MBRK +67%
2009-SNWL +14%
2009-CYNO +25%
2009-DTLK +33% (fourth trip on this)
2009-NED +46%
2009-CUTR +13%
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-RNWK +36%
2009-OPK +116%
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)
2010-HPOL +110%
2010-DIVX +25%
2010-CHRD +37% Buyout (2 weeks after we recommended it)
2010-HPOL +30%
2010-MGIC +82%
2010-GSL  +78%
2010-CCEL +49%
2010-HPOL +27% (third trip)
2010-CAW EVEN (excluding 2.5 years of dividends)
2011-DWCH +116%
2011-IPAS +15%
2011-PRM +56% Buyout (1 week after we recommended it)
2011-RST +12%
2011-NINE -10%
2012-BVSN +30%
2012-TISA +137%
2012-PTIX -44%
2012-MTSL +157%
2012-LTUS -98% No more Chinese stocks for us
2012-AEZS -63%  a bad speculation.
2012-RIMG -46% (including dividends)
2012-HPOL +34% (4th trip)
2012-MEDW +133% (Buyout 1 week AFTER we sold this)
2012-SPNC +118%
2012-RWWI +1%
2012-MOTR -29% (lost biggest customer contract)
2013-INUV -83% Held this since 2007. Failed business model.
2013-ASTX-+40%
2013-MGCD-+79%
2013-LXK +2%
2013-AGYS +41%
2013-DRIV+31%
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 65 stocks that we closed out since 2006 (53 were winners) the average net gain was 30%

QAD Inc. (NASDAQ-QADA)-Recommended 6/7/2013)

Buy Price $11.80
Valuation $28.27
Closed down $.26 at $13.05
Next earnings due out Tuesday, August 27th after the market close.
UP 11% HOLD

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price $15.14
Valuation $24.25
Closed up $.19 at $15.65
Next earnings due out Wednesday, August 7thbefore the market opens.
Paulson & Co, filed a Form 13D on 5/10/2013 disclosing a 10.9% stake. They have held this stake since before the bankruptcy and merger. Then on May 14th, they filed a 13D/A disclosing another 350,000 share buy at prices up to $17.07 bringing their stake to 13%.
Up 2% BUY

XRS Inc. (NASDAQ-XRSC)-Recommended 2/26/2013)

Buy Price $1.50
Valuation $6.79 ( Was, $6.50)
Closed unchanged at $2.80
Earnings announced in May. Pretty good. Although revenues were down to $14.5 million from $15.9 million last year, they were up from $14.2 million last year. More importantly Non-GAAP earnings were $2.2 million compared to $.2 million last year. For the six month period, Non-GAAP earnings were $4.4 million or $.16 per share. Our valuation climbed to $6.79 per share.
UP 87%, HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)
Valuation $4.64 (Was $4.86, $4.00)
Closed up $.33 at 1.53
Earnings announced in June. Decent. Revenues fell to $9.77 million from $9.811 last year. Margins held at over 70% and net debt decreased to $12.22 million from $13.8 million last quarter. Non-GAAP earnings were $.04 versus a loss of $.03 last year. Our valuation fell from last quarter to $4.64. This is feeling like XRSC, it just needs the stock price to reflect it.
Looks like BlueLine Partners (a “strategic opportunities fund”) have shaken up Daegis management in January with the ouster or the CEO and CFO. The interim CEO and Chairman of the Board is a BlueLine founder. Its feeling like they are not happy with the current stock price for sure.
Up 41%, HOLD

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $1.24
Valuation $2.19 (Was $2.35, $2.56, $2.24)
Closed down $.03 at $1.25
Earnings announced in May. Not great on the surface but all still looks good for BLIN going forward. Revenues fell to $6 million from $6.7 million last year and they lost $.03 a share on a Non-GAAP basis versus a $.01 profit last year. iAPPS revenue was 78% of sales up 9% from last year, recurring revenue was up 30% to $1.3 million. They also lowered their guidance for 2013 to revenue of $25-$26 million from $27 to $28 million. It looks like the reason for this is that their average deal size had doubled and it takes longer to deploy their software—which stretches out the revenue recognition period. We would recommend reading the conference call transcript where they give great detail on the business and forecast. Our valuation fell to $2.19 per share, but we still like the prospects here. It looks a bit like HSTM.
Up 1%, BUY

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37
Valuation $6.28 (Was $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)
Closed up $.05 at $2.77
Earnings announced in July. Revenues fell from $115 million to $93 million, but most of this sales shortfall was low margin government pass-through business. Gross margin increased to 39% from 30% last year. They lost $700,000 versus a profit of $1.6 million last year. Our valuation actually popped back up to $6.28 as net debt decreased and margins expanded.
Carlo Cannell, an activist investor filled a 13D in September 2012 pointing out how undervalued TSYS is and urged them to put themselves on the block. He points to a valuation done on the company as of August 29th of $7.40 to $11.81 a share. Even the low point here is higher than our valuation.
UP 102%, HOLD

Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ-AVNW)-Recommended 2/27/2012)

Buy Price- $2.62
Valuation $9.31 (Was $10.28. $9.03, $9.37, $8.85, $8.31)
Closed down $.05 at $2.61
Earnings announced in May. Decent we think, but we were the only one. Revenues were $118 million compared to $112 million last year, gross margins were 29.1% and they made $1.2 million on a Non-GAAP basis versus $2.2 million last year. The current quarter included a $1.1 million inventory write-off for a bankrupt customer. Net cash per share was $1.38.
Their book-to-bill ratio was less than 1 this past quarter leading them to give next quarter guidance of $105 to $115 million in revenues and Non-GAAP income of $0 to $.03 per share. Not setting the world on fire, but doing ok. Our valuation fell from the huge prior quarter to $9.31—a $1 a share more than when we recommended AVNW.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 6.05% stake.
Dimension Fund filed a Form 13G in February disclosing a 5.3% stake, Vanguard disclosed a 5.67% stake and Blue Mountain has been buying more and is now up to a 5.90% stake.
Down 1%, BUY

CBeyond Inc. (NASDAQ-CBEY)-Recommended 2/28/2012)

Buy Price $7.17 ( Was $7.94 before another $10,000 added at $6.53)
NEW Valuation $27.58 (Was $28.24, $28.33, $29.04, $29.59, $29.58, $29.21)
Closed down $1.63 at $7.01
Earnings announced last week. Nothing to write home about. Sales were $118.2 million versus $123.8 million last year and they lost $41,000 versus making $2.7 million last year. Apparently the earnings were $.05 better than estimates—whoo—hoo.
They also lowered their guidance to $464-$471 million (from $475-$485 million) and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $76-$80 million from $75-$82 million. This was pretty much a non-event to us as our valuation fell a tad to $27.58.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February disclosing a 5.55% stake.
$80 million of EBITDA, $.39 a share in net cash and a $230 market cap. Cheap.
Down 2%, BUY

MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)

Valuation $27.15 (Was $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)
Closed at $10.50 up $.30
Earnings announced in April. Not bad, but not great. Sales were $46 million up slightly from $44.7 last year. They lost $3.1 million pre-tax which included $1.6 million of litigation costs and $400,000 of share based compensation (vapor cost). Net cash was $4.59 per share and our valuation was $27.15.
Lloyd Miller disclosed a 6.9% stake in February.
The 20 for 1 stock split happened in December 2012, so all the share information has been adjusted.
Raging Capital bought another 1.6 million shares in the first week of December 2012 at $10.80 bringing their holdings to 20.1% of the company.
Still trading at less than ½ our valuation.
UP 22%  HOLD

Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)

Buy Price-$8.49
Valuation $11.86 (Was $8.24, $13.05, $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed up $.01 at $5.26
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in July showing sales of about 500,000 shares at prices from $4.96 to $5.68 lowering their stake to 6.6%.
Earnings announced in June. At least they did what they said they would do. Revenues were $52.5 million up 31% over last year and they made a penny on a Non-GAAP basis compared to a loss of $.26 last year. Cash rose to $87 million or $2.57 a share and our valuation rose to $11.86.
Guidance from their press release:
“Moving into the second quarter of fiscal 2014, we believe revenue will be in the range of $52.0 to $54.0 million,” Mr. Tran continued. “We expect to see revenue increases in most of our target markets along with a steady non-GAAP gross margin between a range of 52% and 53% driven by higher margin product mix and continued worldwide cost savings. In addition, we expect our non-GAAP operating expenses in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 to be lower compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014,” said Mr. Tran.
Raging Capital filed a 13D/A in May disclosing the purchase of another 350,000 shares at prices up to $4.68 a share, bringing their holding to 8.1% of the company.
We will be watching this one very closely and may sell at any time.
Down 38%, HOLD

Mitel Networks (NASDAQ-MITL)-Recommended 7/6/2011)

Buy Price- $3.04( Was $3.36 before $10,000 added, $3.95 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $13.81 (Was $12.26, $13.10, $10.92, $13.92, $12.81, $15.28, $14.04, $10.39)
Closed up $.20 at $4.84
Earnings announced in June. Pretty good. Down from last year but they exceeded their guidance. Revenues were $150.9 million versus $157.6 million last year. On a Non-GAAP basis they made $.25 a share. For the year they made $.81 on a Non-GAAP basis. MITL is selling at 5X Non-GAAP earnings. Cheap. Our valuation rose to $13.81 a share.
UP 59%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
Valuation $16.26 (was $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed up $.49 at $8.58 (including dividends)
Pays $.48 annual dividend.
We have collected $.36 in dividends so far (excluding the $.50 special dividend which reduced our basis).
Earnings announced in April. Pretty good we think. Revenues were $16.9 million, up from $16.3 million last year. They had a profit of $937,000 ($.11 per share) versus $337,000 last year. Net cash was $2.52 a share and our valuation rose to $16.26 per share.
Singer/Miller duo own 12.1% of CCUR.
UP 87%, HOLD

Extreme Networks (EXTR-Recommended 3/22/2010)

Buy Price-$3.18 (Was $3.04 before adding another $10,000)
NEW Valuation-$7.33 (was $6.58, $6.99, $6.97, $7.46, $6.31, $7.01, $6.72, $6.45, $5.67, $7.36, $7.23, $7.31, $6.82, $6.81)
Closed at $4.12 up $.07
Earnings announced last week. Mediocre as usual. While revenues were up from $68.2
million last quarter to $79.5 million this quarter, they were down from $87.7 million last year. Gross margin held steady around 55% and they made $.03 a share versus $.08 last year. Cash per share rose to $2.17 and our valuation rose back up to $7.33.
Guidance for next quarter is revenue of $72-$77 million of revenue and Non-GAAP net income of $2-$6 million.
Vanguard filed a Form 13G in March disclosing a 5.21% stake, Wellington disclosed a 6.3% stake and Soros upped his holdings to 9.85%..
Starboard owns 8.8% and Blackrock owns 5.4% of EXTR.
UP 30%, HOLD

Gravity Company Ltd. (GRVY-Recommended 1/18/2010)

Buy Price- $1.45 per ADS (Was $1.68 before double up)
Valuation $4.14-(Was $3.65, $3.41, $5.52, $5.00, $5.39, $5.33, $5.61, $5.73, $4.38, $4.44, $5.15)
Closed at $1.16 down $.02
Gravity reported their Q1 results on May. Revenues were down YOY by 28% to $10.8 million and they lost $1.5 million or $.21 per share. By far the worst results since we have owned GRVY. Cash per share fell to $1.69 ($47 million). Not much good news to report although it looks like Rangarok Online is doing OK in Korea and they re-launched it in China in February.
Still trading below cash value, but operations are not looking robust at all. We may have to dump this one, but will hold on for a bit longer to see if they can turn things around. It would be a shame to have to sell this below their cash value.
Down 20%, BUY

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $6.41 (was $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.90 down $.08.
Wynnefield partners bought another 100,000 shares at $2.90 in the first week of July raising their stake to over 10%.
Earnings announced in June. Looking good. Revenues were up 44% to $8.2 million, gross margins remained steady at 77% and although they reported a pre-tax loss of $1.3 million, after you back out the loss on the debt repayment and an asset write-off , they only lost $200k. How much of this was integration costs are not known. They are projecting a return to profitability next quarter and increasing profitability as the integration activity goes on over the next year. Recurring revenue was 93% of total revenue.
If ARI can grow continue to grow their revenue and profits over the next couple of quarters, we think the stock price could approach our valuation. 
Wynnefield Partners filed a 13D/A in April disclosing purchasing another 50,000 shares at $2.50, and now have a 9.95% stake (1.2 million shares) in ARI.
UP 80%, HOLD, Still a Huge valuation gap here.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $1.07 (Was $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23,  $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.28 closed at $.28
Interestingly, Veramark another tiny telecom software company that we have long followed was recently being bought for $1.18 a share. Our valuation on it was $1.66. This offer was received after an initial offer of $.98. So it finally went for 71% of our valuation. CTIG would need to sell for $.76 a share to be equivalent.
CTIG announced in June that they had hired Duff and Phelps as their independent financial advisor. Guess the Board decided they need to get a fairness opinion to keep down the damages on the lawsuit.
Earnings announced in May. Not good, but I expected worse given they are trying to buy out the company on the cheap. Revenues were $3.885 million versus $.368 million last year. Gross margins held firm at 73%, but they lost $443,000 compared to a profit of $25,000 last year. Cash per share fell to $.06 and our valuation dropped to $1.07—still triple the current trading price.
Birbeck and Fairford Holdings made a non-binding offer to buy CTIG in March for $.29 a share. The company formed a special committee to evaluate the offer. Hopefully they will find somebody else who will pay fair value—or at least close to it.
UP 4%. HOLD