We were up 1.6% last week overall and our 2012 gain is 20.7%
Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand. Check this list:
Cash as % of Stock Price:
Plus EXTR, RIMG, ANGN and MRVC.PK are all in “play” with activist shareholders either trying to get them to pay out special dividends or take them over, or they are pursuing “strategic alternatives”.
The DOW was up 1.5% last week, NASDAQ was up 2.3% and the S+P 500 was up 1.8%. The Russell 3000 was up 1.9%.
AVNW, CBEY, MTSL, and MITL are our favorites.
LXK, RIMG and SPNC earnings last week.
For the year, the DOW is up 8.3%, NASDAQ is up 17.8%, S+P 500 is up 11.6%, and the Russell 3000 is up 12%
Last week we went 14 stocks up, 7 down and 2 unchanged. Since inception we are now 57 stocks up and 16 down for a 78.1% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).
Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)
2010-CHRD +37% Buyout (2 weeks after we recommended it)
2010-CAW EVEN (excluding 2.5 years of dividends)
2011-PRM +56% Buyout (1 week after we recommended it)
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
For the 50 stocks that we closed out since 2006 (45 were winners) the average net gain was 38%.
Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ-AVNW)-Recommended 2/27/2012)
Buy Price- $2.62
Next earnings due out May 2nd, after the market close.
Closed up $.07 at $2.55
Down 3%, BUY
CBeyond Inc. (NASDAQ-CBEY)-Recommended 2/28/2012)
Buy Price- $7.94
Closed up $.04 at $6.68
Earnings due out May 2nd, after the market close.
Down 16%, BUY
MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)
Valuation $2.36 (Was $2.46 (after $.0475 special dividend), $2.92, $3.09)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $.80 ($1.27 before special dividend)
Closed up $.02 at $1.06
MRV closed their sale of CES in April. Another $24 million added to the cash pot. Cash should be about $.60 a share now.
Earnings announced in March. Sales were up slightly to $74.1 million from $73.5 million last year. They lost $6.5 million but this was after a $7.1 million goodwill write off and about $2 million of special charges. Net cash stood at about $76 million or $.48 per share. Our valuation fell a bit to $2.36—still more than double the current stock price.
Raging Capital bought more than 1.3 million more shares in March at $1.03.
Up 21% HOLD
Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)
Valuation $8.41 (Was $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed up $.31 at $5.63
Well SIGM tightened their anti-takeover provisions in early April. Entrenched management for sure. Must be getting scared of Potomac.
SIGM was selected to buy Trident Microsystems assets out of bankruptcy. They are paying just over $28 million for what they project to be $120 million of annual sales that will be EBITDA positive in the first year. Sounds good, but no one is impressed enough to bid up the stock price.
Potomac Capital filed another 13D/A last week as they raised their stake in SIGM to 6.9% with purchases in the $4.80’s of about 44,000 shares.
“Earnings” announced in March. Not good. Revenues down 50% from last year and down 10% from the previous quarter. They lost $18 million $.58 per share ($14 million non-GAAP loss) for the quarter. Cash was $150 million or $4.60 per share but down $1.06 per share for the year. They are saying they expect to reach profitability and cash flow positive operations by the end of this fiscal year (January 2013). Our valuation plunged to $8.41 per share.
Mak Capital One LLC filed a 13G in November disclosing a 6.6% (2,110,000 shares) stake in SIGM.
So we are trading at a market cap of about $20 million (excluding cash) for a $150- $200 million a year chip company with 50% margins. Still pretty stupid we think. With the falling valuation we are thinking of selling, but will hold on for another couple of quarters to see if they can turn this around.
Down 34%, Weak-HOLD
Mitel Networks (NASDAQ-MITL)-Recommended 7/6/2011)
Buy Price- $3.04( Was $3.36 before $10,000 added, $3.95 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $12.81 (Was $15.28, $14.04, $10.39)
Closed up $.32 at $4.75
Earnings announced in March. Revenues from continuing operations were up 5% to $150 million and they made a profit of $.08 on a GAAP basis and $.22 a share on a non-GAAP basis. MITL is selling it’s DataNet/CommSource units which contributed about $14 million in sales during the quarter but are not included in their sales figures and therefore our valuation. Due to this reclassification to “discontinued operations” our valuation fell to $12.81 per share, still more than 3 times its current trading price. Overall we think this is a great earnings report, and this is a buying opportunity.
Up 56%, BUY
Rimage (NASDAQ-RIMG)-Recommended 5/24/2011)
Valuation $$19.81 (Was $22.23, $25.63, $26.45)
Closed down $.09 at $9.24
Pays $.68 a share annual dividend.
We have also collected $.54 of dividends since we recommended RIMG.
Another lousy quarter. Sales down 9% to $19.5 million and they lost $3 million on an operating basis. Cash fell to $66.8 million or $6.52 and our valuation fell again to $16.73.
This is the worst case of management squandering its assets on an acquisition to escape being bought out and fired. We have lost almost $10 on our valuation and the stock is down almost 40%. Qumu sales were $1.4 million. Spent over $40 million to buy this paltry revenue stream.
Guidance for 2012 is low double digit sales growth and the same level cash flow. Teetering on selling here despite the yield.
Down 35%, HOLD
Lexmark International (NYSE-LXK)-Recommended 5/24/2011)
NEW Valuation $62.59 (Was $63.94, $63.84, $79.12, $63.99)
Closed down $2.24 at $30.14
We have also collected $.50 a share in dividends here.
LXK upped their dividend to $.30 a quarter.
Earnings announced last week. Revenues were $992 million and they made $1.05 per share on a non-GAAP basis. Net cash fell to $4.31 per share due to acquisitions, dividends and stock buybacks of $260 million. Fully diluted shares outstanding were 72.3 million compared to 79.8 million when we recommended LXK. Our valuation fell to $62.59. Analysts were disappointed, so down went the stock.
They reiterated their intent to return over 50% of their free cash flow to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases. This would normally be a “buy” with such a huge discount to our valuation, but the vagaries of the stock analysts make us cautious.
Up 5%, HOLD
MER Telemanagement (NASDAQ-MTSL)-Recommended 5/17/2011)
Buy Price-$1.42 (Was $1.50 before adding another $10,000 investment)
Valuation $5.55 (Was $6.28 $5.61, $5.11)
Closed down $.09 at $1.81
Latest earnings report had sales up YOY to about $3.2 million from $3 million. They reported a loss of $201,000 ($.05 per share) compared to income of $117,000 ($.03 per share) last year, but the results were due to a large patent litigation settlement expense. They did not disclose the amount for the quarter, but these litigation expenses were $640,000 for the year. Net cash rose to $.77 per share. Our valuation (including the litigation charge) fell to $5.55.
Up 27% HOLD
Harris Interactive (NASDAQ-HPOL)-Recommended 3/3/2010)
Valuation $3.05 (Was $2.90, $3.11, $2.63, $2.97)
Closed at $1.22, up $.03
Next earnings due out Wednesday, May 2nd after the market close.
EVP purchased 12,500 shares in March at $1.03 and interim CFO bought 11,000 shares at $1.02.
HPOL’s new, “permanent” CEO is already in action. They announced in early March a $3 million share buy back program and forecast that adjusted EBITDA for 2012 would increase about 54% from 2011 and that they believe their shares are undervalued. We do too.
Earnings announced in February. Things are looking up! Although revenues were down from $45 million last year to $39 million, operating income more than doubled to $2.1 million from $.9 million and net income rose to $1.6 million from $.3 million last year. Net cash also rose to over $5 million or $.10 per share. Our valuation jumped to $3.05.
Up 33%, HOLD
Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)
Valuation $14.13 (was $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed up $.12 at $3.39
Next earnings due out May 1st, after the market close.
Earnings announced in February. Better than the previous quarter for sure, but just ok. Sales were down from $17.9 million last year to $16.4 million, but well above the $12.9 in Q3. They lost $833,000 compared to $1,189,000 last year and $2.6 million in Q3. Cash fell from $3.50 to $3.10 per share as receivables increased by $3.2 million ($.37 per share). Overall our valuation rose to $14.13.
Down 25%, HOLD
Astex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Was SuperGen Inc.) (NASDAQ-ASTX)-Recommended 10/4/2010)
Buy Price-$2.31 (was $2.09 before adding $10,000)
Valuation $3.42 (was $3.22, $3.11, $5.21, $4.89, $4.37, $3.48)
Closed up $.08 at $1.75
Well the FDA officially turned down Astx’s application for a new indication for Dacogen. Not unexpected, but a damper on the stock price for sure.
Earnings were announced in March. Not bad. Revenue for the year was just over $66 million and they made $5.5 million in net income. Cash was $1.37 a share. Our valuation fell to $3.22 a share on the negative effects of the merger on net income.
Projections for next year are for revenues to rise by about 10% and a net loss of $13-$15 million of which about $10 million appear to be non-cash charges.
So we have a company losing maybe $5 million in cash a year, or 25 years of cash, about $70 million in revenues and a huge drug pipeline. Any good news on the clinical trials front ought to set this stock on fire.
As we said before, the merger with the revenue poor Astex hurt our valuation which does not take into account the massive drug pipeline of Astex. It is not easy to find a small drug company that has a pile of cash, is not losing a ton of money and is trading at even close to our valuation.
There are $2 BILLION of potential milestone payments down the road.
Down 24%, BUY
Performance Technology (PTIX-Recommended 3/30/2010)
Valuation $6.17-(was $5.94, $4.87, $4.99, $3.79, $3.87, $5.03, $5.98, $7.13)
Closed down $.45 at $2.05
Earnings announced in March. Sales rose 34% to $9.1 million and they made a profit! $473,000 or $.04 per share. On a Non-GAAP basis they made $1 million or $.09 per share. Cash stayed level at $1.12 per share and our valuation rose to $6.17.
Down 24%, BUY
Extreme Networks (EXTR-Recommended 3/22/2010)
Buy Price-$3.18 (Was $3.04 before adding another $10,000)
Valuation-$7.01 (was $6.72, $6.45, $5.67, $7.36, $7.23, $7.31, $6.82, $6.81)
Closed up $.08 at $3.90
EXTR pre-announced earnings last week. Disappointing. Sales will be down to around $73 million from $76 million last year, and way down from their guidance of $80-$85 million. On the other hand their Non-GAAP income is expected to be about $.04 per share compared to a loss of $.05 last year and guidance of income of $.06-08. So they missed guidance and made more money than last year. Stock gave back some of its gains from recent weeks.
Earnings announced in February. Revenues dropped a tad from $85 million last year to $83 million and they made $5.8 million of net income on a Non-GAAP basis versus $5.1 million last year. Cash per share rose to $1.56 per share from $1.50 and our valuation rose to $7.01 per share. The company also announced last week that they have sold an option to a possible buyer of their corporate headquarters in California for $48.5 million. The option lasts until the end of 2012. That would add another $.50 a share (pre-closing costs and taxes) to the cash till.
Starboard owns 9.7%, Soros 8.8% and Blackrock owns 5.5% of EXTR.
Up 23%, BUY
Gravity Company Ltd. (GRVY-Recommended 1/18/2010)
Buy Price- $1.45 per ADS (Was $1.68 before double up)
Valuation $5.39-(Was $5.33, $5.61, $5.73, $4.38, $4.44, $5.15)
Closed up $.22 at $2.48
Ragnarok was commercially released in Korea on March 26th. Non-consolidated earnings were filed with the SEC in April. A bit of confusion here as previous filings/announcements were on a consolidated basis. So we will wait for some clarification here before we revise our valuation. A perusal of the non-consolidated results seem consistent with previous consolidated results with cash of about $40 million, net income of about $13 million and sales of about $34 million.
Earnings announced in November. Not bad at all. Revenues rose 8% to $13.4 million and they made $3.1 million or $.11 per ADS. For the nine months ended September 30th, they have made $.25 per ADS. Cash fell about $1.5 million to $2.05 per ADS.
Our valuation rose a bit to $5.39.
Up 71%, HOLD
AEterna Zentaris (AEZS-Recommended 6/20/2009)
Buy price $1.42 (was $1.78 before adding another $10,000, $1.82 before double up)
Closed down $.01 at $.62
AEZS announced that Perifosine failed in April. Carnage followed. Hmm, this will teach us a lesson to not recommend speculations any more. We are still holding ours as a lottery ticket.
Earnings out in March. Revenues for the quarter were $12.6 million, up from $10 million last year. Net loss was $7.5 million compared to $6.6 million last year. The net loss for the year was $29 million. Cash stood at $47 million and they continue to sell more stock. They sold another 3.6 million in 2012 so far and raised $6.4 million.
Speculative for sure.
Down 56%, HOLD
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $5.68 (was $8.90, $9.40 before adding $10,000, and was $10.65 before double up),
Valuation –$13.00 (was $12, $10)
Closed up $.05 at $10.56
Earnings last week. Sales up 10% to $33.3 million and they broke even. Gross margins improved to 73%. SPNC also received FDA approval on the GlideLight laser Sheath which makes it easier to extract pacemaker leads.
Guidance for 2012 is unchanged– a 5-7% increase in revenues and $.04-$.08 in earnings per share, excluding two new product introductions anticipated for mid year introductions.
This company needs to be sold so that someone can take advantage of their 70%+ gross margins and enjoy some profits.
Up 86%, HOLD
Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up)
Valuation $18.15 (was $17.96, $18.34, $16.07, $15.04, $14.23, $15.02, $14.35, $12.13, $12.57, $12.29, $11.90, $11.30, $11.48, $11.47 $10.99, $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Closed down $.19 at $14.83
MEDW announced another small acquisition in March. They are paying $2.2 million for a cancer management software line.
Earnings announced in February. Another good report. Sales were up 18%, pre-tax income was up 30%, but due to a higher tax rate EPS was flat at $.21 per share. Cash rose to $4.27 per share and our valuation moved up again to $18.15.
MEDW announced an acquisition in January. The acquired company sells software into the same customers as MEDW but in the adult stem cell and cord blood management area. No financial information about the acquisition or its revenues was disclosed. Looks like another growth area for the company. Constellation Software, who owns over 20% of MEDW announced in January that they had concluded their analysis of strategic alternatives. This is the code for they couldn’t find a buyer. Good company but already overvalued. Maybe they will turn their attention back to acquiring MEDW? We can dream.
All we read is that medical records will be a hot area, so MEDW looks like the place to be.
Up 134%, HOLD
Inuvo (INUV (was-VTRO, MIVA)-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $8.15 (Was $11.90 before adding another $20,000, $13.10 before another $10,000 and was $15.00 before double up),
Valuation $8.04 (was $10.91, $12.42, $14.23, $14.76, $12.40, $12.55, $10.85, $8.25, $9.45, $28.05, $32.10, $34.20, $37.90, $37.95)
Closed at $.76 down $.05
The Inuvo/VTRO merger closed in March and we now have 1.546 shares of INUV for each VTRO share we had before. We will wait a bit to see it .5 plus .5 can make 2.
They expect merger cost savings to be more than $2.4 million a year.
Should have sold this when it traded over $6.
Down 87% HOLD
Angeion Corporation (ANGN-Recommended 8/28/2008)
Buy Price-$3.82 (was $5.15 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $13.36 (was $15.90, $13.13, $13.19, $13.60, $15.00, $13.06, $12.15, $11.29, $11.73, $11.47, $11.16, $9.53, $13.30, $13.03)
Closed up $.04 at $5.74
Earnings announced in March. Ok, but certainly not great. Revenues were flat at $7.1 million and they lost $249,000 or $.07 per share, slightly better than last years $.09 per share loss. Cash rose slightly to $2.42 per share and our valuation fell to $13.36 compared to $13.60 in the same quarter last year.
Angeion disclosed in an SEC filing in December that they had retained an investment banker to look at “strategic alternatives” that may also involve the sale of its New Leaf product line. Company could be for sale, or just a part of it. In any event this should be good news for us shareholders and ANGN continues to be significantly undervalued.
CEO bought 10,000 shares in September at $4.25. Good sign.
If this company could just show a bit of growth I think we would see $10 in short order—if.
Blueline Partners still owns 7.6% of ANGN and ought to be pushing on the company to do something about the stock price.
While ANGN is still trading at less than ½ our valuation, we are switching to a HOLD until we gets some results or news that improves the prospects here.
Up 50%, HOLD
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks.
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $5.82 (was $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4,86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.70 up $.08
Earnings announced in March. Not bad. Sales were up to $5.5 million from $5.2 million last year. They only made $61,000 ($.01) of income versus last years $123,000 ($.02). Their net cash position improved a tad to minus $3.7 million from minus $3.8 million last year. Our valuation stayed about the same at $5.82.
ARI announced a reseller win in February in addition to one in January for a 160 dealer outfit.
Now up 6%, BUY, Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Rand Worldwide (RWWI.ob (Was Avatech, AVSO.ob)-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.79 (Was $.93, $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-each time),
Valuation $2.08 (was $2.09, $2.12, $2.60, $2.40, $1.90, $2.26 $3.07, $3.03, $2.38, $2.57, $2.81, $2.78, $3.30, $3.76, $4.00 $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.85, unchanged
Peter Kamin the new Chairman of the Board filed a 13d in March disclosing an 11% ownership state. Interesting as one would file a 13G if their intention was to just be a passive investor. Maybe as Chairman he will do SOMETHING to get the share price up.
RWWI announced an acquisition in March, but gave no financial details. “If a tree falls in the forest but there is no one around to hear it, dies it make a sound”? Seems like the company is making no effort to get this company known to the investment community. We have been in this one a LONG time and are getting impatient.
Earnings announced in February. Decent. Sales were $22.5 million up from $21.7 million last year, gross margin was 47% and they made $1 million or $.02 per share. Our valuation dropped $.01 to $2.08 as there were 3 million more fully diluted shares outstanding. Cash was still a net negative, but getting close to even. Market cap of $34 million for an $80 million in sales company with almost 50% margins and not losing money, just too cheap.
Still more than 2X the current price.
Up 7%, HOLD
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $1.37 (Was $1.23, $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.26, closed at $.25.
Earnings in April. Sales were up $100k over last quarter to $4.5 million and they made $160k. Cash fell to $2.9 million or $.10 per share. Our valuation fell a penny to $1.36. Two profitable quarters in a row. The CEO expressed confidence that they can continue to grow revenues in the press release.
CEO reported another 44,000 of stock purchases in late 2011 at $.095 to $.10 per share.
At a $7 million market cap, this is stupidly cheap. Their intellectual property is probably worth 3 times this price. They need to liquefy this value somehow.
Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Down 4%. BUY
Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $1.68 (Was $1.80 before $10,000 adder, $2.16 before double-up)
Valuation-$.85 (Was $1.05, $2.43, $4.11, $4.84, $4.98, $4.60, $3.82, $4.00, $3.68, $3.12, $3.98, $4.44, $3.22, $2.12, $4.56, $4.16)
Closed at $.04, unchanged.
Now LTUS announced in April that they have no money for audits and SEC filings. Hammered down to a nickel a share. Can you spare them some money? Not worth selling at this point until we need tax losses. Maybe something good will happen. What a disaster. No more Chinese stocks for us, no matter how compelling the valuation.
Oiy! Lotus announced in January that they had “sold” their Mongolian land. They get nothing for it and give up 3 drugstores in Bejing and $7 million of receivables. Not good as reflected on the huge (percentage wise at least) drop in the stock. This has indeed become a cheap lottery ticket. 25 shares for a buck. We are licking our wounds on this one, but will just wait it out. It may go to $0, or may hang around in the penny stock range for a while. The move into the new building has commenced and the warehouse (supposedly critical to selling in Bejing) will be functional by March and production to start by September.
Earnings announced in November. Revenues were up slightly over last year at $19 million versus $18.3 last year, but gross margins remained low and they made $2.1 million of $.04 per share compared to $.25 last year. Our valuation fell again to $.85.
Down 98%, HOLD