Good week for us last week, as we almost doubled our year-to-date gains.
Last week we went 8 up, 5 down and 2 even. Our biggest DOGS are: LINN.ob, and BDR both down 10% or more. For last week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +12.4%,+29.1% and +49% respectively. Since inception we are now 22 stocks up and 5 down(3 of which are down less than 10%). We have finally hit our goal of 80% winners.
We were up a whopping 12.4% this past week and are now up 29.1% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all up, with gains ranging from .2% (DOW) to .9% (NASDAQ) last week. The Dow is up 13.1%, NASDAQ is up 16.2 and the S+P 500 is up 10.1% for the year.
LINN.ob was our best stock last week, up 58% but we are still down 35% on this one.
PARL was also up 21% and DWCH was up 11%. BDR and LINN.ob are the weakest companies fundamentally and we are looking for an economic exit on these two. The rest of our stocks are looking good, in our opinion.
We are now up about 2.2 times the DOW and 1.8 times the NASDAQ and about 2.9 times the S+P 500 averages in 2007. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are both up between 10.2% and 10.7% for the year.
Since inception we have closed out the following positions:
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3% (Waited too long to sell)
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
For the 12 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 32%. We are tired of watching our stocks go up–and then down. So we are planning to take profits a bit sooner than in 2006 (although you never know for sure as both PDLI and QADI have continued up after our sales). We have already closed out 8 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.
TISA nailed up right out of the gate last week with a pre-announcement of a lousy quarter.
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Up $1.15 to $14.58.
SPNC announced some positive reimbursement news from Belgium last week–this seems to have sparked the stock.
Guidance has not been updated yet for the TURBO Booster.
Short interest fell to 3.586 million shares from 4.502 million shares. But from the stock action, we believe there is still a lot of manipulation going on. Nothing has fundamentally changed here for it to go down.
Now up 37% so far. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.28 (was $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $5.20, up $.50.
Hopefully this quarter results will build on the last one and DWCH will get noticed again.
DWCH is now trading at 56% of our valuation.
Now up 65%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.78 (was $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $9.20 (Was $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.93, up $.84.
We are finally back in the plus column here. Purportedly rumors of a buy-out surfaced last week (IPAR)moving the stock over $5 on Friday. Take-over or not, there is still good value here.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
UP 3%. HOLD.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $4.31 (was $4.01, $5.12, $5.88).
Closed at $1.30 down $.04.
BDR is still cheap in our opinion, but they need a decent quarter to get this stock moving up. As we mentioned above, we are looking to get back to even on this one and get out, even though the valuation is compelling.
Trading at 31% of our valuation.
Down 29%. HOLD
ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $23.22 (was $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $12.86 up $.94.
No news. This quarter earnings will probably not be that great due to the $500,000 or so bad debt thay previously announced.
For FY2008 they are projecting another 20% increase in sales and a tripling of operating income. They still have $2.95 a share in cash.
UP 6%. HOLD
Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $8.82, NEW Valuation $15.51 (Was $17.85 $18.18)
UP $.21 to $9.10.
The “turnaround” is not yet done.
The insider buying seems to have stopped for a while.
With the previous insider buying and discount to our valuation, we like this stock alot.
Up 3%. HOLD.
Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.67, (was $6.98 after double up ($10,000 added) Valuation $12.89 (was $13.40)
UP $.22 to $6.64.
Has cash of $2.70 a share (41% of its market cap.) and is trading at 52% of our valuation. We still like this one and will buy some more personnally if we can get it at this price next week.
Penninsula Capital owns 1.67 million shares or over 20% of MEDW. Not sure how they liguidate there stake profitably without a takeover
Down .3%. BUY
Cimatron (CIMT-Recommended 8/12/2007)
Buy Price $2.12, Valuation $7.53
Down $.02 to $2.59.
The buying “frenzy” from last week seems to have subsided.
Up 22%. HOLD
Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $7.26, Valuation $11.51
Down $.45 to $7.96.
Up 10%. HOLD
Top Image Systems, Ltd. (TISA-Recommended 9/27/2007)
Buy Price $3.28, Valuation $5.46
Down $.30 to $3.00.
TISA pre-announced Q3 on Monday. They will not do over $7 million in revenue and will do only between $6 and $6.3 million–and will lose between $1.4 and $1.6 million. Some of this loss is from integration costs from their acquisitions of Asiasoft and CPL, but not clear how much. The final earnings release will not be out until November 28th. They still have plenty of cash, but looks like we will be waiting another quarter or two to make money on this one. Price fell to a 52 week low last week ($2.80) but rebounded later in the week. Makes us feel a bit better–but not much.
Down 9%. HOLD
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
LINN.ob perked up last week, and AVSO.ob is looking interesting.
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.34 (was $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.50, unchanged.
No news. Hasn’t traded since September 28th. Really boring.
Earnings due out Monday October 29th after the close. Maybe it will trade a share or 2 after earnings.
Now down 7%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.23 (was $.36 before double-up on investment), Valuation $.29 (was $.49, $.57, $.62, $.66 and before that $.79)
Closed at $.15, up 5.5 cents.
Lion announced on Friday an agreement to sell their TRMS unit for $1.2 million minuimum. Not clear what this units revenues are, or the multiple they got on the sale, but between the 2 tranactions they have announced deals worth at least $6.2 million or $.16 per share. They still have their “loan” business and said in their press release:
“The sale of the TRMS business, together with our recent sale of Mortgage 101 to Internet Brands, strengthens the Company’s financial footing and allows us to fully concentrate on our core business, the loans group, while continuing to explore a variety of strategic alternatives.”
Prior to last week Lion announced the sale of their “Mortgage 101” website for $5 million or about $.12 per share in value. Based on their reported numbers, this is a better than 3 times multiple of revenue. Very nice. Maybe we can actually see a gain here!
Down 35%. Hold.
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.34 (was $2.28, $2.89, $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.45, down $.02.
Has cash of $.38 per share–26% of the market cap.
In late June, OPTIO announced they had hired an investment banker to help them review the “Strategic Alternatives” related to their Healthcare software division. In other words, a “for sale” sign has gone up. Having been through their SEC filings, there appears to be no disclosure on the sales or operating results for this “division”, so there is no way for us to determine what this could mean from a valuation standpoint.
It has been over 3 months now since their announcement–We would expect to hear an update soon. They said in their latest earnings release that their healthcare business exceeded their goals. They better get a good price for this.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year–but may not happen now unless next quarter rebounds with some decent profit numbers, or they get a good deal on the Healthcare “division”.
Up 16% so far. HOLD.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.99 (was $1.19 before double up ($10,000 added), Valuation $3.23 (was $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.00, up $.08.
Large “blocks” keep appearing on the sell side–20,000 to 60,000. But these seem to be being bought right up last week. So while the selling is concerning, we like he fact that they are not staying out there very long.
For FY 2008 they said on the last conference call that they expect Q1 to be profitable, modest sales growth for the year and a focus on profitability.
We are guessing $55 million of revenue next year and being profitable–which should yield a valuation of over $3.50 a share, and hopefully a share price of at least $2.00–up 100% from here.
Our current valuation is based on the full year FY2007 results and dropped only $.02 from our last valuation.
Trading at 31% of our valuation.
Now up 1%. BUY.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.38 (Was $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price unchanged at $.35. Closed at $.34.
Still, little interest in this stock. Management needs to get some going.
This is still trading at only 25% of our latest valuation.
Up 30% based on the ASK price. BUY