Being Left Behind

We went 6 up, 6 down and 1 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, crept up 1.3% to 14.7%. DWCH continued as our biggest dog followed by, MIVA, OPTO.ob, Linn.ob and INFT. Since the start of the year we are 11 up and 5 down.

Two stocks we have followed for a while (but unfortunately didn’t recommend because the discount to our valuation was not big enough) got take-over offers last week–Metasolv (MSLV) and Indus (IINT). MSLV got an offer at $4.10 and rose 20% last week, our valuation interestingly was exactly $4.10. IINT got an offer for $3.85 and rose 45%. Our valuation was $3.24 down from $4.43 previously.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Price was up $.21 to $13.34 last week. If Q3 earnings are good, as expected we could see new highs here. Nice mention on Forbes.com this morning too. Now up 25%. HOLD

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, NEW Valuation $19.35 (was $18.40)). Closed up $.02 at $10.20. Yield about 3%. Up 8% so far. BUY.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $8.26, down $.24 on no news. Yield about 1.2%. Trading at only 60% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 19% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.88, up $.22. Got over $21 for a while but dropped back down. Now up 8%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.38 (was $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.06, down $.06. Now down 19% to date. HOLD until we see their full earnings results for the quarter and update our valuation.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.40, down $.05, still a loser–down 34%. HOLD to see how this quarter turns out. Valuation gap is still huge, but declining.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, New Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Down $.14 last week to $4.08. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Valuation moved up slightly based on this weeks earning report, but no one cared. Price objective $5.50. Now down 1%. BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.21)). Closed at $2.18, up $.28 last week. This stock is still pretty illiquid so big moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now up 6% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79)). Closed at $.345, up $.045 last week. Still trading at only 52% of our current valuation. Down 4% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.18, down $.05. Still in the red with a 6% loss. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.36 (was $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.70, down $.02. Now up 43%. No news, just lack of interest. Still only trading at only 51% of our valuation. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price stayed at $.31. Closed at $.31. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 15% so far (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed up $.03 at $2.42, up 27% to date. This is still very risky, but could be a real barnburner is they do what they say they are going to do. HOLD.

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Inforte

INFT released earnings this afternoon. Pretty good. Sales up 6% and they made $.03 per share.
Valuation increased from $6.86 to $6.95 per share. It closed today at $4.17. It traded at $5.31 in afterhours, but only on 500 shares. Have to wait until the morning to see if any of this gain holds. Keep your fingers crossed. Cash per share dropped a penny to $2.51.

Year-end Rally?

We went 9 up, 4 down last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, however dropped .7% to 13.4% as AVSO.ob and IYXI.ob had substantial weekly drops. DWCH continued as our biggest dog followed by, MIVA, LINN.ob, ARIS.ob and OPTO.ob . Since the start of the year we are 11 up and 5 down.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Price was up $.15 to $13.13 last week. If Q3 earnings are good, as expected we could see new highs here. Now up 23%. HOLD

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, NEW Valuation $19.35 (was $18.40)). Closed up $.20 at $10.18. Yield about 3%. Valuation moved up to $19.35. Up 8% so far. BUY.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $8.50, up $.01. Yield about 1.2%. Trading at only 62% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 23% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.66, up $.28. Now up 7%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.38 (was $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.12, up $.03. Now down 18% to date. HOLD until we see their full earnings results for the quarter and update our valuation.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.45, up $.18, still a loser–down 33%. HOLD to see how this quarter turns out. Valuation gap is still huge, but declining.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was $7.32)). Up $.14 last week to $4.22. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now up 3%. BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.21)). Closed at $1.90, down $.20 last week. This stock is still pretty illiquid so big moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down 8% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79)). Closed at $.30, up $.01 last week. Still trading at only 45% of our current valuation. Down 17% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.23, up $.08. Still in the red with a 2% loss. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.36 (was $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.72, down $.15. Now up 45%. No news, just lack of interest. Still only trading at only 51% of our valuation. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price dropped $.01 to $.31. Closed at $.30. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 15% so far (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.12 even at $2.39, up 25%. This is still very risky, but could be a real barnburner is they do what they say they are going to do. HOLD.

Better week

We went 7 up, 4 down and 2 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, was up 1.8% to 14.1%. The mini-caps have still been lagging in our opinion. DWCH continued as our biggest dog followed by, MIVA, LINN.ob, OPTO.ob and INFT. Since the start of the year we are 11 up and 5 down.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Price jumped $1.29 to $12.98 last week, on a Citicorp recommendation and shorts getting squeezed a bit. Now up 22%. HOLD

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, NEW Valuation $19.35 (was $18.40)). Closed up $.15 at $9.98. Yield about 3%. Valuation moved up to $19.35. Up 6% so far. BUY.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $8.49, up $.24. Yield about 1.2%. Trading at only 62% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 23% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.38, up $.20. Now up 6%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.38 (was $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.09, up $.15. Now down 19% to date. HOLD until we see their full earnings results for the quarter and update our valuation.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.27, down $.11, still a loser–down 38%. HOLD to see how this quarter turns out. Valuation gap is still huge, but declining.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was $7.32)). Down $.02 last week to $4.08. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down a tiny .7%. BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.21)). Closed at $2.10, up $.15 last week. Now up 2% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap. Valuation moved up a bit to $5.28.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79)). Closed at $.29, down $.02 last week. Still trading at only 44% of our current valuation. Down 19% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.15, down $.05. Now back in the red with a 8% loss. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.36 (was $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.87, up $.06. Now up 57%. Still only trading at only 57% of our valuation. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price stayed at $.32. Closed at $.32. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 19% so far (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed even at $2.51, up 31%. This is still very risky, but could be a real barnburner is they do what they say they are going to do. HOLD.

ARI Network Services (ARIS.ob)

ARI reported Q4 and Year results this morning. Not great, not bad either. Our valuations crept up to $5.28 per share. So at $2.00, ARI is trading at 38% of our valuation. CHEAP!. Sales for Q4 declined slightly from $3.6 million to $3.4 million but reported earnings (pre-tax) were up a tad to $533k from $455k. Reported EPS was $.11 for the quarter and $.49 for the year. These EPS numbers include tax credits, so normalized for a 36% tax rate EPS would have been $.05 and $.20 respectively. So we are trading at a PE of 10, fully taxed and fully diluted. For 2007, they are expecting to pay off most of their remianing debt and to grow revenues. They are expecting operating income to be flat as they invest in sales and marketing to grow revenues–which is what they need to do. A new deal with Harley and Buell in Europe, Middle East and Africa should start moving sales up–as early as Q1 2007 (October 2006). We will see. This remains one of the cheapest, profitable stocks around. Gross margins are over 80% too. Drawbacks are that it is small–$14 million in annual sales, trades on the Bulletin Board, and has hardly any float. This is a perfect buy-out candidate in our opinion. BUY–if you can find shares!

CCA and Spectranetics

CCA (CAW-AMEX), filed their 10Q yesterday. New valuation is indeed over $19. $19.35 to be exact. Gross margins were a hair under 70% and things look good. Now we just have to wait for the market to catch up. With Costa Brava nipping at their heels, there is pressure to get the stock price up to fair value. Closed at $9.82, now up 4%. BUY

Spectranetics (SPNC-NASDAQ), Looks like Citigroup issued a buy recommendation on SPNC. Price target=$17. Stock reacted nicely yesterday-closed at $12.36. We are now up 16%. HOLD

It was a mirage

Maybe the small caps and micro caps are starting to move? Nah–it was a mirage.

We went 4 up, 6 down and 3 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, dropped 2.2% to 12.3%. DWCH continued as our biggest dog followed by, MIVA, LINN.ob, ARIS.ob and OPTO.ob. Since the start of the year we are 10 up, 5 down and 1 even. News on CAW and ARIS.ob last week.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Price dropped $.01 to $11.69 last week, despite news that they are introducing an updated set of products. Initial reaction was good, then the price drifted back down. Now up 10%. HOLD

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed up $.18 at $9.83. Yield about 3%. CAW announced earnings last week. They were great as I expected–$.27 per share versus a loss last year of $.05. Sales were up 7% and they have $2.50 per share in cash. So all we get is an $.18 rise. It did spike up to $10.80 on the news, but didn’t hold the gains. I expect the valuation to rise to over $19 per share, but don’t have enough data to confirm this until they file their 10Q. Up 4% so far. BUY.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $8.25, up $.17. Yield about 1.2%. Trading at only 60% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 19% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.18, up $.98. Now up 5%. Hopefully PDLI will not fall back below our buy price as it has 2 or 3 times before. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.38 (was $9.10)). MIVA closed at $2.94, down $.36. Now down 23% to date. HOLD until we see their full earnings results for the quarter and update our valuation.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.38, down $.18, still a loser–down 35%. HOLD.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was $7.32)). Down $.03 last week to $4.10. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down a tiny .2%. BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.21). Closed at $1.95, down $.15 last week. Now down 5% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap. More good customer news last week (again).

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79)). Closed at $.31, down $.04 last week. Still trading at only 47% of our current valuation. Down 14% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.20, down $.05. Now back in the red with a 4% loss. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, NEW Valuation $3.36 (was $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.81, up $.01. Now up 52%. Still only trading at only 54% of our new valuation. BUY.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price stayed at $.32. Closed at $.32. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 19% so far (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.01 at $2.51, up 31%. This is still very risky, but could be a real barnburner is they do what they say they are going to do. HOLD.