Being Left Behind

We went 6 up, 6 down and 1 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, crept up 1.3% to 14.7%. DWCH continued as our biggest dog followed by, MIVA, OPTO.ob, Linn.ob and INFT. Since the start of the year we are 11 up and 5 down.

Two stocks we have followed for a while (but unfortunately didn’t recommend because the discount to our valuation was not big enough) got take-over offers last week–Metasolv (MSLV) and Indus (IINT). MSLV got an offer at $4.10 and rose 20% last week, our valuation interestingly was exactly $4.10. IINT got an offer for $3.85 and rose 45%. Our valuation was $3.24 down from $4.43 previously.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Price was up $.21 to $13.34 last week. If Q3 earnings are good, as expected we could see new highs here. Nice mention on this morning too. Now up 25%. HOLD

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, NEW Valuation $19.35 (was $18.40)). Closed up $.02 at $10.20. Yield about 3%. Up 8% so far. BUY.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $8.26, down $.24 on no news. Yield about 1.2%. Trading at only 60% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 19% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.88, up $.22. Got over $21 for a while but dropped back down. Now up 8%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.38 (was $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.06, down $.06. Now down 19% to date. HOLD until we see their full earnings results for the quarter and update our valuation.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.40, down $.05, still a loser–down 34%. HOLD to see how this quarter turns out. Valuation gap is still huge, but declining.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, New Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Down $.14 last week to $4.08. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Valuation moved up slightly based on this weeks earning report, but no one cared. Price objective $5.50. Now down 1%. BUY.


ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.21)). Closed at $2.18, up $.28 last week. This stock is still pretty illiquid so big moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now up 6% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79)). Closed at $.345, up $.045 last week. Still trading at only 52% of our current valuation. Down 4% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.18, down $.05. Still in the red with a 6% loss. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.36 (was $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.70, down $.02. Now up 43%. No news, just lack of interest. Still only trading at only 51% of our valuation. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price stayed at $.31. Closed at $.31. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 15% so far (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed up $.03 at $2.42, up 27% to date. This is still very risky, but could be a real barnburner is they do what they say they are going to do. HOLD.


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