CSI Update-November 2017 Free Blog

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 71 winners, 17 losers for an 80.7% win-rate with an average gain of 38.4%.

Since we now have only 5 stocks in our “portfolio” we will be discontinuing the portfolio performance metrics in 2017. We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually in 2017.

In November:

PRSS. Lloyd Miller who owns 20% of PRSS has had enough. He filed a Form 13D/A in November pushing for a sale of the company. About time. I doubt we will get out with a profit, but it is possible.

AVID announced Q3 earnings. Not bad, not great but the market seemed to like them. Revenue was $105.3 million compared to $119 million last year which included $12 million of the SEC mandated accounting BS. GAAP net income was $72,000 compared to $9.1 million (including the $12 million noted above. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.4 million compared to $5.5 million last year. Q4 guidance is revenues between $103 million and $113 million and adjusted EBITDA of $14 million to $20 million. My valuation crept up to $16.95 from $16.50. Still a Buy here. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-technology-announces-q3-2017-210500993.html

SYNC reported Q3 2017 earnings. They were good in my opinion, but they released into a bad market day and no one seems to care. Revenues were up 14% to $36.3 million from $31.7 million last year and $31.2 million last quarter. On a Non-GAAP basis they lost about $500,000 even though they reported a profit which included a gain on the sale of an investment of $1.9 million. Net cash fell about $1.5 million to $16.5 million. My valuation rose to $5.81 from $5.32. The best part was that their Q4 guidance is revenue of $46 to $51 million and adjusted EBITDA of $2 to $4 million ($1.8 million this quarter). If they hit the low end of the guidance my valuation will jump to over $7.50 a share. I guess nobody believes it because the stock did nothing. Still a BUY around $2.50. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-delivers-14-percent-revenue-210500361.html

ATEC announced final Q3 earnings. About as pre-announced. Revenues were $23.1 million compared to $26.7 last year and they lost $3.1 million compared to $13.7 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.1 million compared to $.7 million last year. Cash was down to $15.4 million down from $19.1 million at June 30th. They received $1.7 million after the quarter from warrant exercises and expect $3.5 to $4 million before 1/1/2018 from the Nuvasive guys. My valuation came in at $5.93 down from the previous $7.42. They did not give guidance other than to say next quarters sales should be higher.  I think my valuation for ATEC is very conservative, but it needs to start rising over the next couple of quarters or I may have to sell it. HOLD. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphatec-holdings-inc-host-earnings-173000250.html

.November 2017 Legacy Positions:

 

                  Share      Current      Lifetime      Current      Price to     Prior

 Stock         Cost          Price          Gain            Value         Value       Value

BLIN           $19.76       $2.59            (87%)             $7.01         37%         $7.20

SYNC           $2.56         $2.45            (4%)               $5.81         42%         $5.32

PRSS           $4.01          $1.81           (55%)              $5.37         34%       $6.49

ATEC          $7.06          $2.62           (63%)               $5.93         44%       $7.42

AVID           $8.35         $6.73           (19%)            $16.95        40%       $16.50

 

 

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CSI Update November 2017-Private Portfolio

We stopped publishing our free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. We are following our 5 remaining open positions until the end.

In late 2015 we started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Blog, but we tell you exactly what stocks we bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares we own and their valuations.

I have averaged a 46.9% gain on our 22 sold stocks (20 winners and 2 small losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Eight of the 22 stocks have been bought out, including six this year.

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com.

Here is the list of private subscription stocks I have bought and sold since December 2015. These are listed by last sold date.

2017 magicJack 17% gain, Buy-Out

2017 eGain 56% gain

2017 YUME 90% gain, Buy-Out

2017 MaxPoint Interactive 60% gain

2017 Shortel 24% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Tremor Video 25% gain

2017 MRV Communications 6% loss, Buy-Out

2017 Ceragon Networks 55% gain

2017 Angie’s List 60% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Lantronix 135% gain

2017 Syneron Medical 46% gain, Buy-Out

2017 RocketFuel 140% gain

2017 Undisclosed spin-off .1% gain

2017 Harmonic 74% gain

2016 Ceragon Networks 48% gain

2016 Alphatec 71% gain

2016 Universal Insurance 36% gain

2016 Mitel Networks 15% gain

2016 Avid Technology 50% gain

2016 Silicon Graphics 70% gain, Buy-out

2016 Imatron 30% gain

2016 Harmonic 80% gain

2016 United Online 5% loss, Buy-out