Facebook (FB) Valuation-$64

For fun I have been looking at some of the big cap, high flying, stocks. I don’t need to do my valuation formula to know they are way overvalued, but I did it for Amazon and now Facebook.

My valuation came in at $64. This is what I think it is worth today–fully valued. I am not saying it is not a really good company, but the projected growth rates that analysts are using to get to the current price better be right, or this will end up a real stinker.

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Amazon Valuation (AMZN)

For fun I have been looking at some of the big cap, high flying, stocks. I don’t need to do my valuation formula to know they are way overvalued, but I did it for Amazon for kicks.

My valuation came in at $597. This is what I think it is worth today–fully valued. I am not saying it is not a really good company, but the projected growth rates that analysts are using to get to the current price better be right, or this will end up a real stinker.

CSI Update August 2018-Private Subscriptions

We stopped publishing our free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. We are following our 3 remaining open positions until the end.

In late 2015 we started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Blog, but we tell you exactly what stocks we bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares we own and their valuations.

I have averaged a 43% gain on the 28 stocks I have sold entirely (26 winners and 2 small losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Nine of the 28 stocks have had buy-out offers, including six in 2017 two in 2018.

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com.

Here is the list of private subscription stocks I have bought and sold since December 2015.

2018 Telecom Services (57% sold) 3% gain

2018 Telco (less than 10% sold) 122% gain

2018 Internet Services Co. (10% sold) 49% gain

2018 Lantronix, 52% gain

2018 Ceragon Networks, 82% gain

2018 Networking Co. (1/3 sold) 17% gain

2018 Pitney Bowes 31% gain

2018 Calix 1% gain

2018 Xerox 34% gain, Buy-Out

2018 RMG Networks 1% gain

2017 Telecommunications Co., 59% gain (partial sale)

2017 magicJack 17% gain, Buy-Out

2017 eGain 56% gain

2017 YUME 90% gain, Buy-Out

2017 MaxPoint Interactive 60% gain

2017 Shortel 24% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Tremor Video 25% gain

2017 MRV Communications 6% loss, Buy-Out

2017 Ceragon Networks 55% gain

2017 Angie’s List 60% gain, Buy-Out

2017 Lantronix 135% gain

2017 Syneron Medical 46% gain, Buy-Out

2017 RocketFuel 140% gain

2017 Conduent .1% gain

2017 Harmonic 74% gain

2016 Ceragon Networks 48% gain

2016 Alphatec 71% gain

2016 Universal Insurance 36% gain

2016 Mitel Networks 15% gain

2016 Avid Technology 50% gain

2016 Silicon Graphics 70% gain, Buy-Out

2016 Imatron 30% gain

2016 Harmonic 80% gain

2016 United Online 5% loss, Buy-Out

 

CSI Update August 2018-Free Blog

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 71 winners, 19 losers for a 79% win-rate with an average gain of 35.7%.

We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually until they are all sold.

In August:

I closed out PRSS and took the 68% loss. They will either go out of business or get taken private. They seem to be headed for going out of business.

AVID reported Q2, 2018 earnings. They were ok, just not very exciting. Revenue was down a bit to $98.6 million from $102.4 and adjusted EBITDA was $5.3 million down from $8.9 million last year. They say they are going to cut expenses by $20 million over the next year. FY 2018 guidance was revenue of $410-$420 million and adjusted EBITDA of $40 to $46 million. My valuation fell to $14.64 from $14.98. What the market doesn’t give AVID credit for is that about $57 million of the $98 million of revenue in the quarter is recurring revenue. Just using a conservative 3X multiple of recurring revenue, AVID’S valuation is over $12 a share.

SYNC announced Q2, 2018 earnings. Revenues increased 15% to $35.9 million and they made $1.2 million of Adjusted EBITDA compared to $.2 million last year. They had $15 million in cash (no debt other than capital leases). They continue reducing expenses and now expect to get an additional $4 million of saving over the next year or so. Recurring revenue was $11 million, or about $44 million a year. This alone is worth more than the market cap of $70 million or so.  AT+T related revenue was $10 million for the quarter. Q3 guidance is revenue of $37-$39 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 to $2 million. For the year they are still at revenues of $150-$155 million and adjusted EBITDA of $7 to $10 million.

ATEC reported Q2 earnings. They were about the same, although a little bit better than last quarter. U.S. revenues came in at $20.4 million, down from last years $21.9 million but up from last quarters, $19.2 million. They still lost a ton of money, about $5.5 million on a Non-GAAP basis. My valuation rose to $3.37 from $3.11. With revenues of $43.3 million for the six months ended June 30, they are still projecting $95 million of revenues in the second half. If they can do this, they should get pretty close to breakeven and the stock should go up. We will see.

August 2018 Legacy Positions:

 

                  Share      Current      Lifetime      Current      Price to     Prior

 Stock         Cost          Price          Gain            Value         Value       Value

SYNC           $2.56        $1.92           (25%)            $5.75         34%         $5.25

ATEC            $7.06         $3.51          (59%)             $3.37         87%          $3.11

AVID            $8.35         $5.61          (29%)            $14.64         37%        $14.98