Running in place

We went 6 up, 7 down and 2 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, moved up 1.3% to 11.3% over the past 2 weeks. LINN.ob is now our biggest dog followed by, DWCH, PARL, MIVA, INFT and CTIG.ob and ARIS.ob. Since the start of the year we are 11 up and 7 down. Mini-caps continue to lag way behind the market.

PARL news last week.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

Price changes in this update are over the last 2 weeks.

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Rebounded $.55 to $11.50 since our last update 2 weeks ago. No news, just oversold. Up 8% so far. HOLD

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86). Closed at $7.93, down $.15. Trading at only 58% of valuation. Has $1.03 in cash also. Up 14% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $22.37, down $.86. Pretty quiet-no news. Now up 16%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.25, down $.15. No news. Down 15% so far. HOLD.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, NEW Valuation $7.50 (was $7.63, $9.31)). Closed at $2.74, up $.79,now down “only” 25%. HOLD.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Up $.08 to $3.77. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 8%. BUY.

MOBI-(Buy price $7.08, Valuation $12.69). Down $.09 to $7.08. No news. Back to dead even on this one. BUY.

RITT-(Buy price $1.00, Valuation $2.69). Closed up $.21 at $1.23 over the last 2 weeks. Up 23%. No news. HOLD.

PARL-(Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77). PARL announced that they were selling the Perry Ellis brand back to–Perry Ellis for $63 million in cash. The good news is that this price is about $3 per share in cash, the bad news is that is was less than 50% of what they had it sold for a month or 2 ago until Perris Ellis nixxed that deal. Stock got hammered down to $5.45 late last week so we are down 18% right out of the box. The PE brand contributed 43% of PARL sales in the year ended March 31, 2006, but only 31% of Q1 (June 2006) sales. PE brand sales were down significantly in Q1 and PARL’s other brands grew fast enough to offset this sales decline and still grow 20% overall. We re-ran our valuation with the $63 million in sale proceeds and knocked $50 million off our FY2007 sales estimates and came up with an estimated valuation of $13.35 a share. With possible offers to be taken private in the background and a good valuation regardless of such a transaction, this remains a BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, NEW Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)). Closed at $2.05, down $.07 last week. This stock is still illiquid so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down 1% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.26, unchanged over the last 2 weeks. Still trading at only 42% of our current valuation. Down 28% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.33, down $.15. Couldn’t hold the $1.50 level, so we drift back down. So now we have only a 6% gain. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.70, up $.17. Now up 43%. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, NEW Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price stayed the same at $.26. Closed at $.26. Cash is $.24 per share. Now down 4% so far (based on asked price). BUY if you can find some shares.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.04 at $2.15, up 13% to date. Not much news on the “take-over” over the last 2 weeks, other than it is still in the works. Announced a new contract signing last week also. HOLD.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s