We stopped publishing our free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. We are following our 6 remaining open positions until the end.
In late 2015 we started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Blog, but we tell you exactly what stocks we bought—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares we own and their valuations.
Here is the list of private subscriptions positions I have bought and sold since December 2015.
RocketFuel, 140% gain in 4 months
Networking company, 129% gain (sold 90% of holdings)
Undisclosed spinoff, 1% gain
HLIT, 74% gain on our remaining position
Ceragon, 48% gain
Imation, 31% gain
Mitel, 15% gain
United Online, 6% loss (take-under)
SGI, 70% gain on takeover.
AVID, 55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)
HLIT, 85% gain. We sold 75% of our position here.
UVE, 36% gain.
ATEC, 71% gain. (This was a trading position-in addition to our long-term BLOG holding)
If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at email@example.com. It is NOT CHEAP though.
We averaged a 58.2% gain on our 12 sold stocks (11 winners and 1 small loser) in our private portfolio since January 1, 2016 and are up 6.2% on our other 19 open positions (13 stocks are up and 6 are down).
.Here is our Blog portfolio track record since 2006:
Average gain of 20.5%
Compound annual gain of 15.2%
Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 70 winners, 17 losers for an 80.5% win-rate with an average gain of 38%.
Since we have only 6 remaining stocks in our “portfolio” we will be discontinuing the portfolio performance metrics in 2017. We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually in 2017.
AVID announced Q4 2016 earnings. Decent I think. All numbers are Non-GAAP. Revenues were $105 million compared to $121 million last year and Operating income was $21.2 million compared to $13.6 million last year. Net debt increased $8 million from 9/30/2016 to $148 million. Our valuation came in at $18.54, down from $22.03. Guidance for Q1 is revenue of $100-105 million and EBITDA of $8-14 million. For the full year 2017 guidance is revenue of $405-$435 million and EBTDA of $45-$55 million. I see another year to get this up to a reasonable share price.
Alphatec reported Q4 2016 earnings. Revenues were $27.1 million compared to $26.7 million last quarter. They reported a loss of $4.7 million and Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $2.2 million compared to $3.4 million positive EBITDA last year. My valuation fell to $16.50 from $18.78. There may have been some inventory write-offs in Q4, but it is not clear from the press release. I was expecting better. Again, I will wait another quarter or so, on this one.
ATEC also announced a “financing”. They are basically selling 9.2 million shares at $2. This knocked my valuation down to about $9 from $16.50. They are at the point where they have to cut their losses, or sell the company for $6 to $9 a share before it is worth nothing.
Synacor announced Q4 2016 earning. Not bad. Revenues were $34.9 million compared to $32.4 last year. They lost about $2 million (Non-GAAP). My valuation fell to $5.66 from $6.19. Gross margin fell from 54% to 48%–on seasonal product mix. Guidance for Q1 was weak. Revenues of $26 to $28 million and an EBITDA loss of $3 to $4 million which includes the AT&T startup costs. Full year 2017 guidance was much more encouraging, Revenues of $160 to $170 million and EBITDA of $6 to $10 million. So it looks like another couple of quarters until we actually see the AT&T impact, but then it should be dramatic. The conference call was upbeat and they announced a number of new deal wins. The analysts seemed pleased.
PRSS announced Q4 2016 earnings. The turnaround continues. Revenues were up 7.5% to $43.7 million Net income was $2.9 million compared to $.8 million last year. But 2016 earnings were increased by $1.8 million of accrual reversals from prior periods. My valuation fell from $10.68 in 2015 to $10.15. Not a big decrease, but still not going in the right direction. They have $2.63 of net cash which is around 90% of the stock price. This should be taken private as the market values the business at essentially nothing.
March 2017 Legacy Positions:
|Per Share||Current||Lifetime||2017||Current||Price to||Prior|
|CCUR **||4.58||7.02||53%||-5.0%||$ 13.83||51%||$ 9.49|
|BLIN||3.95||0.83||-79%||30.3%||$ 1.38||61%||$ 1.53|
|SYNC||2.56||4.15||62%||33.9%||$ 5.66||73%||$ 6.17|
|PRSS||4.01||3.02||-25%||2.7%||$ 10.15||30%||$ 7.43|
|ATEC||7.06||2.33||-67%||-27.4%||$ 8.87||26%||$ 16.50|
|AVID||8.35||4.66||-44%||5.9%||$ 18.54||25%||$ 22.03|
|** Current price includes cumulative dividends|