We have sold 10 of our private positions in 2016 since December 2015 when we discontinued the Blog..
HLIT-74% gain on our remaining position
United Online-6% loss (take-under)
SGI—70% gain on takeover.
AVID-55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)
HLIT-85% gain. We sold 75% of our position here.
ATEC-71% gain. (This was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)
If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at email@example.com. It is NOT CHEAP though.
We averaged a 42.3% gain on our 10 sold positions in our private portfolio since January 1, 2016 and are up 7.2% on our other 19 open positions (13 stocks are up and 6 are down).
Here is our Blog portfolio track record since 2006:
Average gain of 20.5%
Compound annual gain of 15.2%
Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 70 winners, 17 losers for an 80.5% win-rate with an average gain of 38%.
Since we have only 6 remaining stocks in our “portfolio” we will be discontinuing the portfolio performance metrics in 2017. We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually in 2017.
Concurrent announced Q2 (12/31/2016) earnings in February. They rebounded from a poor Q1. Our valuation snapped back to $13.83 from $9.49 in Q1 and $13.68 for Q2 2015. Revenues were $15.5 million, cash was $2.03 per share, EBITDA was $700,000 and the net loss was $88,000 and Non-GAAP net income was $220,000. Overall not bad. This company needs to be sold. It has traded at a discount for too long and management has shown no talent in getting the share price up.
Bridgeline announced Q1 (12/31/2016) results in February. Another disappointing quarter. Revenue fell from $4.2 million to $4 million while they managed to cut their net loss from $1.348 million to $.408 million. Our valuation fell from $1.53 to $1.38. It looks like their recurring revenue is now just shy of $7 million a year. With a market cap of about $14.5 million, we think this is still undervalued, but the persistent share dilution over the years (shares have doubled since 2009) and the decline in sales from about $24 million to the current $16 million or so, have killed this stock. Expect more of the same next quarter. We are holding on here in the hope of recouping some of our cost either on a buy-out, or maybe they actually start creating some value. Maybe we get lucky and the stock gets run up over $3.00 again like last year, even if only for a few hours.
February 2017 Legacy Positions:
|Per Share||Current||Lifetime||2017||Current||Price to||Prior|
|CCUR **||4.58||7.05||54%||-4.6%||$ 13.83||51%||$ 9.49|
|BLIN||3.95||0.65||-84%||1.6%||$ 1.38||47%||$ 1.53|
|SYNC||2.56||3.00||17%||-3.2%||$ 6.17||49%||$ 6.23|
|PRSS||4.01||3.02||-25%||2.7%||$ 7.43||41%||$ 7.73|
|ATEC||7.06||3.37||-52%||5.0%||$ 18.78||18%||$ 19.93|
|AVID||8.35||5.62||-33%||27.7%||$ 22.03||26%||$ 25.56|
|** Current price includes cumulative dividends|