Still beating the averages

Last week we went 5 up and 9 down and 2 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list followed by INFT, PARL, SPNC, DWCH, SPNC, PDLI and BDR . For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +.4%,+4.7% and +20.8% respectively. Since inception we are 13 stocks up and 7 down (4 of which are down less than 10%).

We are still up 4.7% so far in 2007, while the DOW is down 1.5%, NASDAQ is down 1.1% and the S+P 500 is down 1.1%. Really no significant news about any of our stocks last week other than PDLI. RITT continued to barrel along and is now up 68%.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.34 to $9.71 last week. Shorts won the battle again last week. This is a great company with great prospects that is executing well–but the stock continues to lag.
Now down 9% so far. BUY.

QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $8.46, up $.39. Trading at 62% of valuation. Earnings due March 15th. No news, although there is some speculation about a LBO on the message boards. Has $1.07 in cash also.
Up 22% so far. HOLD.

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $18.70, up $.44. On March 5th, activist investment firm Third Point LLC wrote a letter to PDLI management, pushing them to get their act together as far as the business and share price. They also disclosed that they owned 8 million shares or 7.5% of the company. A catalyst! We love it. Maybe this will get PDLI to start focusing on the share price and why it is so low. PDLI will present at a Cowen conference on 3/15. We think that PDLI is a bargain at this price. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now down 3%. BUY.

MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)
Earning due out March 14th, after the close.
MIVA closed at $3.99, down $.01. Now up 5%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.99, down $.04 for the week. No news.
Now down 9%. BUY.

Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Down $.04 to $3.52 last week. Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 14%. No news. HOLD.

Mobius Management Systems (MOBI-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69
Up $.06 to $7.21 last week. No news.
Up 8%. HOLD.

RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
No news. Closed up $.12 at $1.68 last week.
Looks like this one still wants to go higher.
Up 68%. HOLD.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77)
PARL closed at $5.79, down $.09 last week.
We think the stock price will continue to vacillate for a while until we get some positive news. Even a 10Q filing might cause this one to spike up.
Down 13%. BUY.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.88.
Closed at $1.81 down $.02 for the week. No news, not much volume.
Down 1%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, NEW Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.10, unchanged last week. This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Earnings last week. Sales up 5% and they made money–although less than last year as they continue to invest in sales and marketing. Valuation dropped to $5.03, but this is due to no sales contribution of their acquisition of OC-Net yet, while the balance sheet impact did impact the quarter.
Now up 2% so far. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.27, unchanged last week. Still trading at only 48% of our current valuation. Earnings last week. Sales down 11% from the prior year and 1% from the prior quarter. They had a loss of $384,00 for the quarter. We were not expecting great things and we were right. We will give LION another quarter ot two to see if they can turn things around. They are still “cheap” compared to our valuation.
Down 25%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.55, down $.05 last week. No news and volume dried up. We think this is just due to investors focusing on some of the more battered investments opportunites created by the prior weeks market fall. Has $.44 in cash per share also. We have now dropped out of the $1.60-$1.70 range. Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
24% gain so far. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, NEW Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.63, down $.12. Someone is tryng to unload about 34,000 shares and only managed to sell about 14,000 last week. So until the overhang of about 19,000 shares is cleared away, we appear to be stuck around the $1.65 range. If they would just meter this sell order out a bit, we think they could get a better price, but maybe they are dealing with a margin call and need to sell now.
Now up 37%. HOLD.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, NEW Valuation $1.28 (Was $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price jumped $.05 to $.35. Closed at $.31. Finally we got some numbers about their Ryder purchase. Not bad at all. Our new valuation based on the “pro-forma” numbers in their SEC filing came in at $1.28 per share.
Up 30% based on the ASK price. BUY

INYX Inc. (IYXI.ob-Bought January 3, 2006)
Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00)
Closed at $2.19, down $.21 last week. Still waiting on the “attractive cash offer” that was promised by the end of February. Looks like people are getting worried that nothing will happen after some enthusiasm last week. Our guess is that with no update from management on this offer, is that they are “knee-deep” in putting the deal together and there is nothing to report–other than the offer is delayed. Hopefully the offer will come, and it will be attractive by our standards and be at least $3 per share–so we can book a a 50% gain on this one. Bank debt is now scheduled for repayment by March 31, 2007 and they have arranged financing for their latest acquisition.
Up 15% HOLD.


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