Speculative Buy-PDL BioPharma (PDLI)

I originally bought PDLI at around the $7 level in 2003. I sold 3/4 of my position at around $21. I am holding the remaining and am planning to buy more at this sub-$20 level. This bio-tech company has everything going for it. A lucrative royalty stream from some of the biggest names of bio-tech (Genentech-Avastin, Xolair, Raptiva/MedImmune-Synagis, etc.), product sales from an acquisition made last year and some potential block-busters in the R+D pipeline. Balance sheet is not bad either with $346 million in cash. This stock was recently $32+, then they missed analysts estimates by $10 million last quarter, the market tanked, and bio-tech fell out of favor a bit. It is losing money on a GAAP basis (although they were profitable on a non-GAAP basis last quarter–slightly). This is not a valuation play, but a growth play. Biggest mistake I made on this one was not buying more when it was down to $15 after I sold some at $21. This could be a $50-$100 stock, 3 years from now. Trading at 5.5 times current year projected sales–so not for the faint of heart. But them DNA (Genentech) trades at 11 times. Expect volitility! BUY.


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