ARI Networks (ARIS.ob)

ARI announced Q1 FY 2008 results (quarter ended 10/31/2007) this morning. Surprise! They were good. Sales increased 21% and they made $.04 per share in earnings (untaxed). Their net cash position improved, margins held at 82% and our valuation went up to $5.71 from $5.49 (4%). Not bad. This is a great buy–but nobody has cared so far. Maybe management will make an effort now with some positive results to tout.

BUY.

12/15/2007 Update

Bad week for the markets again last week. All the indices were down 2.1-2.6%. Our portfolio was down a whopping 10.5% giving back just about all of our whopping 12.5% gain two weeks ago, This week MIVA, AVSO.ob, PARL and DWCH accounted for just about all of our losses.

We are adding to our positions in MIVA, AVSO.ob and BDAY this week.

Last week we went 5 stocks up, 11 down.

For last week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -10.5%,+17.4% and +35.5% respectively. Since inception we are now 20 stocks up and 12 down( 10 of which are down less than 10%).

The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all down, with losses ranging from 2.1% (DOW) to 2.6% (NASDAQ) last week. The Dow is up 7.0%, NASDAQ is up 9.1% and the S+P 500 is up 3.5% for the year.

We are now up about 2.5 times the DOW, 1.9 times the NASDAQ and about 5 times the S+P 500 averages in 2007. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are up 3.75% and 3.1% for the year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3% (Waited too long to sell)
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 16 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 22%. We have closed out 12 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $20-$22
Down $.49 to $14.42.
No news and trading volume has dropped. Not worried here. Looks like some hacker shorts may be back in playing too.
Now up 35%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $10.30 (was $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $6.20, down $.83.
DWCH closed down for the week and down big on Friday.
We still like this one and may buy some more next week at this level, if we can get it.
DWCH is now trading at 60% of our valuation.
Now up 97%. HOLD, it this hits $8.00 in 2007-SELL 1/2

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.78 (was $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $10.80 (Was $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.12, down $.41.
Lets see, sales up 38%, made $.10 a share fully taxed and paid down $8 million of debt over the past 6 months.
But Glenn Nussdorf has been selling PARL shares! About 250,000 shares. Could be taking some tax losses, could be dealing with some margin debt issues, no one knows except for Glenn. Not a good sign with no explanation coming from the company, but this is still so cheap that we are staying with it for now.
Now trading at 38% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.0 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 14%. HOLD.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $20.51 (was $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $10.96 down $.48.
Two Directors bought a total of 15,000 shares recently at about $11. This is very unusual.
ILOG Q1 earnings were disappointing. Our valuation dropped to $20.51 from $23.22.
For FY2008 (this year) they are STILL projecting another 20% increase in sales and a tripling of operating income. They still have $3.35 a share in cash.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 9%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $8.82, NEW Valuation $15.51 (Was $17.85 $18.18)
Down $.54 to $7.98.
The “turnaround” is not yet done.
Boring to watch this–but so was DWCH. We like the recent insider buying again and are content to wait for this one. Add another $10,000 here. New average BUY price will be $8.38.
Down 9%. BUY.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.67, (was $6.98 after double up ($10,000 added) NEW Valuation $13.32 (was $12.89, $13.40)
down $.20 to $6.89.
Penninsula Capital owns 1.67 million shares or over 20% of MEDW. Not sure how they liguidate there stake profitably without a takeover
UP 3%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $7.26, Valuation $11.51
Up $.04 to $6.04.
JP Morgan added 95,000 shares from 11/28-11/30, at $6.12 to $6.21. They now own 3,354,000 shares or about 10%.
They also filed an 8K in December. Seems they are sprucing up their senior officer change-of-control agreeemtnts. Wonder why?
Down 17%. HOLD

Angeion Corp. (ANGN-Recommended 10/14/2007)
Buy Price $7.55, Valuation $13.67
Up $.40 to $7.98.
No news to explain the big rise over the past 2 weeks, but we like it.
UP 6%. HOLD

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.62 (Was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $7.58 (was $7.59)
Down $.47 to $2.09.
W. Blair disclosed a 10% stake in Miva in a 13G filing. We think this is overblown on the downside and are going to add another $10,000 here. New average BUY Price will be $2.38 per share.
No news.
Down 18%. BUY

PDL Biopharma. (PDLI-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $20.04, Valuation $24.00 to $30.00
Down $.37 to $17.93.
At 7X the royalty revenue and 3X the product sales, you get $2.1 billion in value comapared to the current market cap of $2.1 billion. Their pipeline, and know-how has to be worth something.
No matter, they are still trying to sell the company.
So we are just waiting for them to announce the sale of the company and for how much.
Down 11%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.39
Down $.17 to $3.82.
There is value here.
No news.
Trading at only 41% of our valuation.
Down 11%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.49 (was $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.55, up $.05.
Earnings out on Monday morning. Trading volume has picked up to about 85,000 shares last week. Hopefully some good news next week. This has been very boring.
Now down 4%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.74 (was $2.34, $2.28, $2.89, $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.20, up $.03.
OPTIO has cash of $.41 per share–35% of the market cap.
In late June, OPTIO announced they had hired an investment banker to help them review the “Strategic Alternatives” related to their Healthcare software division. In other words, a “for sale” sign has gone up. Having been through their SEC filings, there appears to be no disclosure on the sales or operating results for this “division”, so there is no way for us to determine what this could mean from a valuation standpoint.
It has been 6 months now since their announcement–We would expect to hear an update SOON. They said in their latest earnings release that their healthcare business exceeded their goals. They better get a good price for this.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00–but may not happen now unless next quarter rebounds with some decent profit numbers, or they get a good deal on the Healthcare “division”.
DOWN 4%. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.99 (was $1.19 before double up ($10,000 added), Valuation $3.05 (was $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.83, down $.07.
Nice presentation filed in their 8K last week. Couple of nice mentions–including in Smart Money of the CEO interview with the Wall Street Reporter. Sigma Opportunity Fund has been buying more shares. I think it is time to add more here.
Add another $10,000 here. We bought a couple thousand more shares last week too. New average Buy Price will be $.93 per share.
We are guessing $55 million of revenue this year and being profitable–which should yield a valuation of over $3.50 a share, and hopefully a share price of at least $2.00–up 100% from here.
Now down 16%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.17 (Was $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price moved down to $.35. Closed at $.30.
Latest quarterly results were: Sales of $5.35 million, up 68% from $3.2 million last year. Without about $800,000 of patent enforcement costs, they would have broken even for the quarter, but this all dropped to the bottom line for a $808,000 loss—$.03 per share. One of these days CTIG is going to hit on all cylinders and get to $1.00.
Our valuation dropped a bit to $1.17, but, this is still trading at only 30% of our latest valuation.
Up 30% based on the ASK price. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $1.08 Valuation $2.08
Closed at $1.10, up $.05.
LTUS, filed an impressive investor presentation on Form 8K in early December.
As noted, China stocks are risky, but based on their published information we just cannot figure out why this stock is trading so low.
LTUS is on track to make $.18 a share this year. Even if these earnings were taxed at U.S. tax rates, that would be about $.12 a share. That is a PE of less than 10, for a company growing revenues at 50% year-over-year. We bought more last week at $1.07 to $1.12. May buy more if the price stays in this range.
Up 2%. BUY

12/8/2007 Update

Big week for the markets again last week. All the indices were up 1.5-1.9%. Our portfolio was down 1.3% after last weeks whopping 12.5% gain, This week OPTIO gave back last weeks gains and was down 22% and cost us 2% in our total portfolio–even though our valuation moved up significantly.

Last week we went 6 stocks up, 9 down and 1 even.

For last week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -1.3%,+27.9% and +47.6% respectively. Since inception we are now 19 stocks up and 13 down( 10 of which are down less than 10%).

The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all up, with gains ranging from 1.6% (S+P 500) to 1.9% (DOW) last week. The Dow is up 9.3%, NASDAQ is up 12% and the S+P 500 is up 6.1% for the year.

We are now up about 3 times the DOW, 2.3 times the NASDAQ and about 4.6 times the S+P 500 averages in 2007. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are up about 5.9% and 6.6% for the year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3% (Waited too long to sell)
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 16 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 22%. We have closed out 12 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $20-$22
Down $.26 to $14.91.
No news and trading volume has dropped. Not worried here.
Now up 40%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $10.30 (was $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $7.03, up $.08.
DWCH closed up for the week but down big on Friday. Although technically DWCH hit $8 last week–it may have been for only 1 trade. So we are not counting this as a 1/2 sell as we recommended last week.
We still like this one.
DWCH is now trading at 68% of our valuation.
Now up 123%. HOLD, it this hits $8.00 in 2007-SELL 1/2

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.78 (was $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $10.80 (Was $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.53, up $.51.
Lets see, sales up 38%, made $.10 a share fully taxed and paid down $8 million of debt over the past 6 months.
Now trading at 42% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 5%. BUY.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $20.51 (was $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $11.44 down $.55.
Two Directors bought a total of 15,000 shares recently at about $11. This is very unusual.
ILOG Q1 earnings were disappointing. Our valuation dropped to $20.51 from $23.22.
For FY2008 (this year) they are STILL projecting another 20% increase in sales and a tripling of operating income. They still have $3.35 a share in cash.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 5%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $8.82, NEW Valuation $15.51 (Was $17.85 $18.18)
Down $.35 to $8.52.
The “turnaround” is not yet done.
Boring to watch this–but so was DWCH. We like the recent insider buying again and are content to wait for this one.
Down 3%. BUY.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.67, (was $6.98 after double up ($10,000 added) NEW Valuation $13.32 (was $12.89, $13.40)
down $.12 to $7.09.
Penninsula Capital owns 1.67 million shares or over 20% of MEDW. Not sure how they liguidate there stake profitably without a takeover
UP 6%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $7.26, Valuation $11.51
Down $.20 to $6.00.
JP Morgan added 95,000 shares from 11/28-11/30, at $6.12 to $6.21. They now own 3,354,000 shares or about 10%.
They also filed an 8K in December. Seems they are sprucing up their senior officer change-of-control agreeemtnts. Wonder why?
Down 17%. HOLD

Top Image Systems, Ltd. (TISA-Recommended 9/27/2007)
Buy Price $3.28, Valuation $5.46
Down $.58 to $2.01.
SOLD at a 39% loss. Taking some tax losses.

Angeion Corp. (ANGN-Recommended 10/14/2007)
Buy Price $7.55, Valuation $13.67
Up $1.28 to $7.58.
No news to explain the big rise, but we like it.
UP .4%. BUY

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.62 (Was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $7.58 (was $7.59)
Down $.32 to $2.56.
No news.
Down .2%. HOLD

PDL Biopharma. (PDLI-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $20.04, Valuation $24.00 to $30.00
Up $.49 to $18.20.
At 7X the royalty revenue and 3X the product sales, you get $2.1 billion in value comapared to the current market cap of $2.1 billion. Their pipeline, and know-how has to be worth something.
No matter, they are still trying to sell the company.
So we are just waiting for them to announce the sale of the company and for how much.
Down 9%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.39
Down $.30 to $3.99.
There is value here.
No news.
Trading at only 42% of our valuation.
Down 7%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.49 (was $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.50, unchanged.
No news.
Now down 7%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, NEW Valuation $2.74 (was $2.34, $2.28, $2.89, $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.17, down $.33.
OPTIO announced earnings last week. Our valuation moved up 17% to $2.74.
Sales were $6.8 million down from $7.6 million last year, but up from the $6.6 million last quarter. Net loss was cut to only $160,000 or $.01 per share. Not a bad quarter in our opinion, but this has been a frustrating stock and some people are giving up (and taking tax losses).
OPTIO has cash of $.41 per share–35% of the market cap.
In late June, OPTIO announced they had hired an investment banker to help them review the “Strategic Alternatives” related to their Healthcare software division. In other words, a “for sale” sign has gone up. Having been through their SEC filings, there appears to be no disclosure on the sales or operating results for this “division”, so there is no way for us to determine what this could mean from a valuation standpoint.
It has been over 5 months now since their announcement–We would expect to hear an update SOON. They said in their latest earnings release that their healthcare business exceeded their goals. They better get a good price for this.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year–but may not happen now unless next quarter rebounds with some decent profit numbers, or they get a good deal on the Healthcare “division”.
DOWN 6%. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.99 (was $1.19 before double up ($10,000 added), Valuation $3.05 (was $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.90, up $.03.
The CEO has bought 8,000 shares recently at $.85 to $.95. He is also giving an interview on the Wall Street Reporter on December 12th. Looks like maybe they are trying to get some attention to the under-valued stock they have.
AVSO is trading at 30% of our valuation.
We are guessing $55 million of revenue this year and being profitable–which should yield a valuation of over $3.50 a share, and hopefully a share price of at least $2.00–up 100% from here.
Now down 9%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.17 (Was $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price moved up to $.36. Closed at $.30.
Earning out last month. Sales were $5.35 million, up 68% from $3.2 million last year.
Without about $800,000 of patent enforcement costs, they would have broken even for the quarter, but this all dropped to the bottom line for a $808,000 loss–$.03 per share. One of these days CTIG is going to hit on all cylinders and get to $1.
Our valuation dropped a bit to $1.17, but, this is still trading at only 31% of our latest valuation.
Up 33% based on the ASK price. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $1.08 Valuation $2.08
Closed at $1.05, down $.03.
LTUS, filed an impressive investor presentation on Form 8K last week.
As noted, China stocks are risky, but based on their published information we just cannot figure out why this stock is trading so low.
LTUS is on track to make $.18 a share this year. Even if these earnings were taxed at U.S. tax rates, that would be about $.12 a share. That is a PE of less than 10, for a company growing revenues at 50% year-over-year. We bought more last week at $1.07 to $1.12. May buy more if the price stays in this range.
Down 3%. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals—BUY

Lotus Phamaceuticals, Inc. (Bulletin Board—LTUS.OB)
Valuation-$2.08
Price November 30, 2007-$1.08

We are recommending LTUS.ob for purchase. LTUS is trading at 52% of our valuation.

We have not recommended an OB-aby in quite some time. Mostly because we could not find one that looked like a real company at a low valuation.

We purchased this at about $1.25 a while ago. The company has continued to perform, but the stock has not.

Q3 sales (9/30/2007) were up 80% to $16.5 million and net income was up 50% to $.05 per share (fully diluted, but untaxed).

This company/stock looks much like American Oriental Bioengineering, which we bought a few years back at around $1. It is now about $11.70 and trades on the NYSE under the symbol AOB. AOB is about three times the size of LTUS ($43.5 million in sales last quarter and $.16 per share in earnings—partially taxed), but its market cap is like 18 times higher ($877 million vs. $50 million). Part of the reason for this is that AOB has 70% gross margins, while LTUS has 40% gross margins.

LTUS has about as much cash as debt. Not as cash flush as we like, but not overleveraged either.

The daily trading volume is about 50,000 shares.

We think anything under $1.15 is a good price.

Like all Chinese stocks there are many transactions with affiliates and related parties that always give us pause. LTUS has not participated in the Chinese stock run-up at all. The 52 week low is $.90 and the high is $3.30. So while we plan to buy more next week—we will not “pile-on”.

About Lotus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Lotus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Lotus”) controls and operates Liang Fang Pharmaceutical, Ltd. (“Liang”) and En Zhe Jia Shi Pharmaceutical, Ltd. (“En Zhe”), two Chinese pharmaceutical companies located in Beijing. Liang and En Zhe form a large comprehensive enterprise, which deals in an integration of the production, trade, sales and marketing of pharmaceuticals. Together, they possess some of the most advanced pharmaceutical-production equipment used in China, workshops authenticated by the National GMP, a suite of various medicines produced by Liang and/or En Zhe (together, “Lotus East”), and a number of high-tech personnel. Lotus East has business and office facilities of 2,000 square meters, warehouse of 1,000 square meters and operates ten retail pharmacies in the Beijing area. Lotus East performs scientific research on new medicines, and the production, wholesale and retail sale of medicines. For more information, visit http://www.LotusEast.com.

12/1/2007 Update–Great week for all

Big week for the markets last week. All the indices were up 2-3%. Our portfolio was up a whopping 12.5%, driven by a 36% gain in Datawatch and a 23% gain in Optio.

Last week we went 9 stocks up and 7 down.

For last week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +12.5%,+29.1% and +49% respectively. Since inception we are now 22 stocks up and 9 down( 6 of which are down less than 15%).

We were up 12.5% this past week and are now up 29.1% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all up, with gains ranging from 2.5% (NASDAQ) to 3.0% (DOW) last week. The Dow is up 7.3%, NASDAQ is up 10.2 and the S+P 500 is up 4.4% for the year.

We are now up about 4 times the DOW, 2.9 times the NASDAQ and about 6.5 times the S+P 500 averages in 2007. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are up about 4% and 5% for the year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3% (Waited too long to sell)
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 15 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 26%. We have closed out 11 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $20-$22
Down $.35 to $15.17.
SPNC did not participate last week. But everything seems to be be clicking along on plan here.
Now up 42%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), NEW Valuation $10.30 (was $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $6.95, up $1.85.
As we noted earlier in the week, DWCH had a blow-out quarter and is on a roll. Our valuation moved up 11% to $10.30, which is great.
Their former CEO–Robert Hagger who has announced his retirement–has continued to sell his shares each week at much lower prices. Guess it just proves that even insiders don’t know everything.
DWCH is now trading at 67% of our valuation.
Now up 121%. HOLD, it this hits $8.00 in 2007-SELL 1/2

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.78 (was $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $10.80 (Was $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.02, down $.16.
Lets see, sales up 38%, made $.10 a share fully taxed and paid down $8 million of debt over the past 6 months.
Now trading at 37% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 16%. BUY.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $20.51 (was $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $11.99 up $.41.
Two Directors bought a total of 15,000 shares recently at about $11. This is very unusual.
ILOG Q1 earnings were disappointing. Our valuation dropped to $20.51 from $23.22.
For FY2008 (this year) they are STILL projecting another 20% increase in sales and a tripling of operating income. They still have $3.35 a share in cash.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 1%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $8.82, NEW Valuation $15.51 (Was $17.85 $18.18)
Up $.25 to $8.85.
The “turnaround” is not yet done.
Boring to watch this–but so was DWCH. We like the recent insider buying again and are content to wait for this one.
Up .3%. BUY.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.67, (was $6.98 after double up ($10,000 added) NEW Valuation $13.32 (was $12.89, $13.40)
Up $.21 to $7.21.
Penninsula Capital owns 1.67 million shares or over 20% of MEDW. Not sure how they liguidate there stake profitably without a takeover
UP 8%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $7.26, Valuation $11.51
Down $.15 to $6.20.
JP Morgan added 95,000 shares from 11/28-11/30, at $6.12 to $6.21. They now own 3,354,000 shares or about 10%.
They also filed an 8K last week. Seems they are sprucing up their senior officer change-of-control agreeemtnts. Wonder why?
Down 15%. HOLD

Top Image Systems, Ltd. (TISA-Recommended 9/27/2007)
Buy Price $3.28, Valuation $5.46
Down $.58 to $2.01.
This is smelling like another LINN.ob right now. They announced their final eqrnings last week and it was worse than we expected. They spent all this money on acquisitions and ended up losing $2 million for the quarter and their margins plunged. We are not going to wait around for another 50%+ loser.
Worse, our valuation fell to only $1.77.
Down 39%. SELL

Angeion Corp. (ANGN-Recommended 10/14/2007)
Buy Price $7.55, Valuation $13.67
Down $.06 to $6.30.
No news.
Down 17%. BUY

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.62 (Was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $7.58 (was $7.59)
UP $.20 to $2.88.
No news.
UP 12%. HOLD

PDL Biopharma. (PDLI-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $20.04, Valuation $24.00 to $30.00
Down $.28 to $17.71.
Third Point, the guys who started all the commotion about getting the CEO out and selling the company—sold all their shares. Lots of speculation as to why–but no one knows for sure except Third Point.
At 7X the royalty revenue and 3X the product sales, you get $2.1 billion in value comapared to the current market cap of $2.1 billion. Their pipeline, and know-how has to be worth something.
No matter, they are still trying to sell the company.
So we are just waiting for them to announce the sale of the company and for how much.
Down 12%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.39
UP $.17 to $4.29.
There is value here.
No news.
Trading at only 46% of our valuation.
Up .2%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.49 (was $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.50, up $.10.
ARI actually traded about 50,000 shares last week–YIKES. Maybe some day their managment will take care of us shareholders.
Now down 7%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.34 (was $2.28, $2.89, $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.50, up $.28.
OPTIO announced that they bought back 701,250 shares last week from a single shareholder at $1.20 per share. Not a big deal since they had over $9 million in cash and 25 million shares outstanding, but it looks like it removed the “overhang” on the sell side and allowed the stock to rebound last week.
OPTIO has cash of $.38 per share–25% of the market cap.
In late June, OPTIO announced they had hired an investment banker to help them review the “Strategic Alternatives” related to their Healthcare software division. In other words, a “for sale” sign has gone up. Having been through their SEC filings, there appears to be no disclosure on the sales or operating results for this “division”, so there is no way for us to determine what this could mean from a valuation standpoint.
It has been over 5 months now since their announcement–We would expect to hear an update SOON. They said in their latest earnings release that their healthcare business exceeded their goals. They better get a good price for this.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year–but may not happen now unless next quarter rebounds with some decent profit numbers, or they get a good deal on the Healthcare “division”.
UP 20%. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.99 (was $1.19 before double up ($10,000 added), Valuation $3.05 (was $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.87, down $.02.
The CEO has bought 8,000 shares recently at $.85 to $.95. He is also giving an interview on the Wall Street Reporter on December 12th. Looks like maybe they are trying to get some attention to the under-valued stock they have.
AVSO is trading at 29% of our valuation.
We are guessing $55 million of revenue this year and being profitable–which should yield a valuation of over $3.50 a share, and hopefully a share price of at least $2.00–up 100% from here.
Now down 12%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.17 (Was $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price moved up to $.34. Closed at $.30.
We actually traded over 40,000 shares last week.
Earning out 3 weeks ago. Sales were $5.35 million, up 68% from $3.2 million last year.
Without about $800,000 of patent enforcement costs, they would have broken even for the quarter, but this all dropped to the bottom line for a $808,000 loss–$.03 per share. One of these days CTIG is going to hit on all cylinders and get to $1.
Our valuation dropped a bit to $1.17, but, this is still trading at only 29% of our latest valuation.
Up 26% based on the ASK price. BUY

Datawatch (NASDAQ-DWCH) +77%

DWCH announced great Q4 yesterday. Sales up 29% to $6.9 million and they made $.14 per share (untaxed). Cash rose to $3.8 million ($.64 per share). Our valuation went up to $10.30 a share from $9.28 (11%). The stock hit $6.45 briefly yesterday but closed at $5.58.

Even though we are now up 77% on DWCH, it is only trading at 54% of our valuation–so it is still a good value. W would expect a bit of a rebound today after it gave up early gains yesterday afternoon. We would look for at least $7 on this–maybe much more if their sales and earnings acceleration continue for another quarter or 2.

HOLD.

11/24/2007—Up 2.5% for the week

Last week we went 4 up and 10 down and 3 even. Even with all these losers last week, we were able to book a nice gain on the backs of DWCH (+11%), MIVA (+17%) and DTLK (+8%). We sold our biggest dog LINN.ob for a 57% loss.

For last week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +2.5%,+16.7% and +34.6% respectively. Since inception we are now 19 stocks up and 12 down( 9 of which are down less than 15%).

We were up 2.5% this past week and are now up 16.6% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all down, with losses ranging from 1.2% (S+P 500) to 1.5% (NASDAQ) last week. The Dow is up 4.2%, NASDAQ is up 7.5 and the S+P 500 is up 1.6% for the year.

We are now up about 4 times the DOW, 2.2 times the NASDAQ and about 10 times the S+P 500 averages in 2007. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are up about 1% and 2% for the year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3% (Waited too long to sell)
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 15 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 26%. We are tired of watching our stocks go up–and then down. So we are taking profits a bit sooner than in 2006. We have already closed out 11 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $20-$22
Up $.35 to $15.52.
SPNC has held up pretty well despite the market swoon. One more conference on the 28th. Everything seems to be be clicking along on plan here.
Now up 46% so far. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.28 (was $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $5.10, up $.50.
Hopefully this quarter results will build on the last one and DWCH will get noticed again.
Their former CEO–Robert Hagger announced his retirement–as he continues to sell his shares each week. Hard to tell what this means. Just have to wait for quarter to be announced on November 27th.
DWCH is now trading at 55% of our valuation.
Now up 62%. HOLD.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.78 (was $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $10.80 (Was $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.18, down $.16.
Lets see, sales up 38%, made $.10 a share fully taxed and paid down $8 million of debt over the past 6 months.
Now trading at 39% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 13%. BUY.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $20.51 (was $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $11.58 down $.08.
ILOG Q1 earnings were disappointing. Our valuation dropped to $20.51 from $23.22.
For FY2008 (this year) they are STILL projecting another 20% increase in sales and a tripling of operating income. They still have $3.35 a share in cash.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 4%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $8.82, NEW Valuation $15.51 (Was $17.85 $18.18)
Down $.53 to $8.60.
The “turnaround” is not yet done.
Spencer Capital has resumed buying BDAY lately. Added another 4,800 shares at $9.09 on 11/5 bringing their total holdings to 1,502,221 shares or about 19%. Roseman also bought a few more shares–1,600 at $8.90 to $9.12.
Down 3%. BUY.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.67, (was $6.98 after double up ($10,000 added) NEW Valuation $13.32 (was $12.89, $13.40)
Down $.25 to $7.00.
Penninsula Capital owns 1.67 million shares or over 20% of MEDW. Not sure how they liguidate there stake profitably without a takeover
UP 5%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $7.26, Valuation $11.51
Down $.13 to $6.35.
No news.
Down 13%. HOLD

Top Image Systems, Ltd. (TISA-Recommended 9/27/2007)
Buy Price $3.28, Valuation $5.46
Down $.17 to $2.58.
TISA pre-announced Q3 five weeks ago. They will not do over $7 million in revenue and will do only between $6 and $6.3 million–and will lose between $1.4 and $1.6 million. Some of this loss is from integration costs from their acquisitions of Asiasoft and CPL, but not clear how much. The final earnings release will not be out until November 28th. They still have plenty of cash, but looks like we will be waiting another quarter or two to make money on this one.
Down 21%. HOLD

Angeion Corp. (ANGN-Recommended 10/14/2007)
Buy Price $7.55, Valuation $13.67
Down $.03 to $6.36.
No news.
Down 16%. BUY

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.62 (Was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $7.58 (was $7.59)
UP $.39 to $2.68.
No news.
UP 5%. HOLD

PDL Biopharma. (PDLI-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $20.04, Valuation $24.00 to $30.00
Down $.04 to $17.99.
Third Point, the guys who started all the commotion about getting the CEO out and selling the company—sold all their shares. Lots of speculation as to why–but no one knows for sure except Third Point.
At 7X the royalty revenue and 3X the product sales, you get $2.1 billion in value comapared to the current market cap of $2.1 billion. Their pipeline, and know-how has to be worth something.
No matter, they are still trying to sell the company.
So we are just waiting for them to announce the sale of the company and for how much.
Down 10%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.39
UP $.31 to $4.12.
There is value here.
No news.
Trading at only 44% of our valuation.
Down 4%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.49 (was $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.40, unchanged.
Back to sleep on ARI. Maybe some day their managment will take care of us shareholders.
Now down 13%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.23 (was $.36 before double-up on investment), Valuation $.29 (was $.49, $.57, $.62, $.66 and before that $.79)
Sold at $.10 last week. 57% loser.

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.34 (was $2.28, $2.89, $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.22, down $.03.
Has cash of $.38 per share–30% of the market cap.
In late June, OPTIO announced they had hired an investment banker to help them review the “Strategic Alternatives” related to their Healthcare software division. In other words, a “for sale” sign has gone up. Having been through their SEC filings, there appears to be no disclosure on the sales or operating results for this “division”, so there is no way for us to determine what this could mean from a valuation standpoint.
It has been over 4 months now since their announcement–We would expect to hear an update SOON. They said in their latest earnings release that their healthcare business exceeded their goals. They better get a good price for this.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year–but may not happen now unless next quarter rebounds with some decent profit numbers, or they get a good deal on the Healthcare “division”.
DOWN 2%. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.99 (was $1.19 before double up ($10,000 added), New Valuation $3.05 (was $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.89, down $.01.
AVSO announced Q1 earnings 2 weeks ago. Not bad at all, in our opinion. Sales were up to $12.4 million from $12 million last year (3%), but net income was up to $489,000 from $36,000 last year. Earnings per share were $.02. Our valuation is now $3.05 per share. AVSO is trading at 30% of our valuation.
We are guessing $55 million of revenue this year and being profitable–which should yield a valuation of over $3.50 a share, and hopefully a share price of at least $2.00–up 100% from here.
Now down 10%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, NEw Valuation $1.17 (Was $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price unchanged at $.30. Closed at $.27.
Earning out 2 weeks ago. Sales were $5.35 million, up 68% from $3.2 million last year.
Without about $800,000 of patent enforcement costs, they would have broken even for the quarter, but this all dropped to the bottom line for a $808,000 loss–$.03 per share. One of these days CTIG is going to hit on all cylinders and get to $1.
Our valuation dropped a bit to $1.17, but, this is still trading at only 26% of our latest valuation.
Up 11% based on the ASK price. BUY

11/17/2007 Update

Last week we went 8 up and 10 down and 1 even. Our biggest DOG is LINN.ob (which we are SELLING), as it is our only stock down more than 16%. For last week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +1.8%,+14.1% and +31.8% respectively. Since inception we are now 19 stocks up and 11 down( 9 of which are down less than 15%) and 1 even.

We were up 1.8% this past week and are now up 14.1% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all up, with gains ranging from .4% (S+P 500 and NASDAQ) to 1.0% (DOW) last week. The Dow is up 5.7%, NASDAQ is up 9.2 and the S+P 500 is up 2.9% for the year.

LINN.ob is our the weakest company fundamentally and we are throwing in the towel on this one. SELL it. BDR which was on our “hit” list surprized us with some good earnings and we took the opportunity to cash it out at a 19% gain–up 98% from the prior week. The rest of our stocks are looking good, in our opinion. We also cashed out of CIMT last week on a good earnings report for a 50% gain.

We are now up about 2.5 times the DOW and 1.5 times the NASDAQ and about 5 times the S+P 500 averages in 2007. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are both up about 3%for the year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3% (Waited too long to sell)
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 14 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 32%. We are tired of watching our stocks go up–and then down. So we are planning to take profits a bit sooner than in 2006. We have already closed out 10 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $20-$22
Down $.26 to $15.17.
SPNC got caught up in the market swoon too. Even the 2 analyst conferences last week did not hold the price up. One more conference on the 28th. Everything seems to be be clicking along on plan here.
Now up 42% so far. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.28 (was $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $4.60, down $.20.
Hopefully this quarter results will build on the last one and DWCH will get noticed again.
Their former CEO–Robert Hagger announced his retirement–as he continues to sell his shares each week. Hard to tell what this means. Just have to wait for quarter to be announced on November 27th.
DWCH is now trading at 50% of our valuation.
Now up 46%. HOLD.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.78 (was $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $10.80 (Was $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.34, up $.09.
Lets see, sales up 38%, made $.10 a share fully taxed and paid down $8 million of debt over the past 6 months.
Now trading at 40% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 9%. BUY.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $4.31 (was $4.01, $5.12, $5.88).
SOLD at $2.18 last week for a 19% gain. Good thing too, as the stock gave back a lot of its gains by the end of the week. It closed at $1.66 up from $1.10 the previous week.
If the price falls much further–we may come back on this one. Valuation is now $5.73, but their CEO was selling into the price rise with a vengence–34,000 shares from $1.70 to $2.15. So we will sit on the sidelines for a while and watch.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $20.51 (was $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $11.66 down $.48.
ILOG Q1 earnings were disappointing. Our valuation dropped to $20.51 from $23.22.
For FY2008 (this year) they are STILL projecting another 20% increase in sales and a tripling of operating income. They still have $3.35 a share in cash.
3 product/customer press releases last week. Maybe they are serious about getting noticed (and maybe sold).
Down 4%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $8.82, NEW Valuation $15.51 (Was $17.85 $18.18)
Up $.20 to $9.13.
The “turnaround” is not yet done.
Spencer Capital has resumed buying BDAY lately. Added another 4,800 shares at $9.09 on 11/5 bringing their total holdings to 1,502,221 shares or about 19%. Roseman also bought a few more shares last week–1,600 at $8.90 to $9.12.
Up 4%. BUY.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.67, (was $6.98 after double up ($10,000 added) NEW Valuation $13.32 (was $12.89, $13.40)
Up $.32 to $7.25.
Good to see MEDW back above $7. Little volume though.
Penninsula Capital owns 1.67 million shares or over 20% of MEDW. Not sure how they liguidate there stake profitably without a takeover
UP 9%. BUY

Cimatron (CIMT-Recommended 8/12/2007)
Buy Price $2.12, Valuation $7.53
SOLD at $3.17 for a 50% gain. Earnings were good. CIMT also gave back a chunk of its gains and closed the week at $2.77. Our valuation soared to $10.45, but in this market we will take a 50% gain and watch for a while.
Like BDR, we are watching this one closely and may be back in here again if the price falls anymore.

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $7.26, Valuation $11.51
Down $.60 to $6.48.
No news.
Down 11%. HOLD

Top Image Systems, Ltd. (TISA-Recommended 9/27/2007)
Buy Price $3.28, Valuation $5.46
Down $.08 to $2.76.
TISA pre-announced Q3 five weeks ago. They will not do over $7 million in revenue and will do only between $6 and $6.3 million–and will lose between $1.4 and $1.6 million. Some of this loss is from integration costs from their acquisitions of Asiasoft and CPL, but not clear how much. The final earnings release will not be out until November 28th. They still have plenty of cash, but looks like we will be waiting another quarter or two to make money on this one.
Down 16%. HOLD

Angeion Corp. (ANGN-Recommended 10/14/2007)
Buy Price $7.55, Valuation $13.67
Down $.60 to $6.39.
No news.
Down 15%. BUY

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.62 (Was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $7.58 (was $7.59)
UP $.05 to $2.29.
No news.
Down 11%. BUY

PDL Biopharma. (PDLI-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $20.04, Valuation $24.00 to $30.00
Down $1.19 to $18.03.
Third Point, the guys who started all the commotion about getting the CEO out and selling the company—sold all their shares. Lots of speculation as to why–but no one knows for sure except Third Point.
At 7X the royalty revenue and 3X the product sales, you get $2.1 billion in value comapared to the current market cap of $2.1 billion. Their pipeline, and know-how has to be worth something.
No matter, they are still trying to sell the company.
So we are just waiting for them to announce the sale of the company and for how much.
Down 10%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.39
Down $.29 to $3.81.
Market swoon took away all of our fast gains on DTLK. There is value here.
No news.
Trading at only 41% of our valuation.
Down 11%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.49 (was $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.40, down $.02.
Back to sleep on ARI. Maybe some day their managment will take care of us shareholders.
Now down 13%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.23 (was $.36 before double-up on investment), Valuation $.29 (was $.49, $.57, $.62, $.66 and before that $.79)
Closed at $.10, unchanged.
We figure Lion has about $.18 a share in cash now. Should be trading higher, but their remaining business generated only $1 million in sales last quarter and they lost $.9 million (excluding goodwill impairment loss and depreciation). They may get another $.10-$.15 a share in contingent payments from their sold divisions.
Our valuation has dropped to—-$.18, not counting these contingent payments. They say their cost reductions will be more apparent in Q4–but they only generated $317,000 in gross margin in this last quarter and had $1.25 million in expenses!.
We don’t think they can turn this around and will eventually burn through all their cash. So we are reluctantly SELLING Lion–time to take some tax losses. 57% loss here.

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.34 (was $2.28, $2.89, $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.25, down $.10.
Has cash of $.38 per share–30% of the market cap.
In late June, OPTIO announced they had hired an investment banker to help them review the “Strategic Alternatives” related to their Healthcare software division. In other words, a “for sale” sign has gone up. Having been through their SEC filings, there appears to be no disclosure on the sales or operating results for this “division”, so there is no way for us to determine what this could mean from a valuation standpoint.
It has been over 4 months now since their announcement–We would expect to hear an update SOON. They said in their latest earnings release that their healthcare business exceeded their goals. They better get a good price for this.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year–but may not happen now unless next quarter rebounds with some decent profit numbers, or they get a good deal on the Healthcare “division”.
Even on this one. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.99 (was $1.19 before double up ($10,000 added), New Valuation $3.05 (was $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.90, up $.01.
AVSO announced Q1 earnings last week. Not bad at all, in our opinion. Sales were up to $12.4 million from $12 million last year (3%), but net income was up to $489,000 from $36,000 last year. Earnings per share were $.02. Our valuation is now $3.05 per share. AVSO is trading at 30% of our valuation.
We are guessing $55 million of revenue this year and being profitable–which should yield a valuation of over $3.50 a share, and hopefully a share price of at least $2.00–up 100% from here.
Now down 9%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, NEw Valuation $1.17 (Was $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price up $.02 at $.30. Closed at $.27.
Earning out last week. Sales were $5.35 million, up 68% from $3.2 million last year.
Without about $800,000 of patent enforcement costs, they would have broken even for the quarter, but this all dropped to the bottom line for a $808,000 loss–$.03 per share. One of these days CTIG is going to hit on all cylinders and get to $1.
Our valuation dropped a bit to $1.17, but, this is still trading at only 26% of our latest valuation.
Up 11% based on the ASK price. BUY