11/24/2007—Up 2.5% for the week

Last week we went 4 up and 10 down and 3 even. Even with all these losers last week, we were able to book a nice gain on the backs of DWCH (+11%), MIVA (+17%) and DTLK (+8%). We sold our biggest dog LINN.ob for a 57% loss.

For last week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +2.5%,+16.7% and +34.6% respectively. Since inception we are now 19 stocks up and 12 down( 9 of which are down less than 15%).

We were up 2.5% this past week and are now up 16.6% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all down, with losses ranging from 1.2% (S+P 500) to 1.5% (NASDAQ) last week. The Dow is up 4.2%, NASDAQ is up 7.5 and the S+P 500 is up 1.6% for the year.

We are now up about 4 times the DOW, 2.2 times the NASDAQ and about 10 times the S+P 500 averages in 2007. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are up about 1% and 2% for the year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3% (Waited too long to sell)
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 15 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 26%. We are tired of watching our stocks go up–and then down. So we are taking profits a bit sooner than in 2006. We have already closed out 11 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $20-$22
Up $.35 to $15.52.
SPNC has held up pretty well despite the market swoon. One more conference on the 28th. Everything seems to be be clicking along on plan here.
Now up 46% so far. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.28 (was $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $5.10, up $.50.
Hopefully this quarter results will build on the last one and DWCH will get noticed again.
Their former CEO–Robert Hagger announced his retirement–as he continues to sell his shares each week. Hard to tell what this means. Just have to wait for quarter to be announced on November 27th.
DWCH is now trading at 55% of our valuation.
Now up 62%. HOLD.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.78 (was $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $10.80 (Was $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.18, down $.16.
Lets see, sales up 38%, made $.10 a share fully taxed and paid down $8 million of debt over the past 6 months.
Now trading at 39% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 13%. BUY.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $20.51 (was $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $11.58 down $.08.
ILOG Q1 earnings were disappointing. Our valuation dropped to $20.51 from $23.22.
For FY2008 (this year) they are STILL projecting another 20% increase in sales and a tripling of operating income. They still have $3.35 a share in cash.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 4%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $8.82, NEW Valuation $15.51 (Was $17.85 $18.18)
Down $.53 to $8.60.
The “turnaround” is not yet done.
Spencer Capital has resumed buying BDAY lately. Added another 4,800 shares at $9.09 on 11/5 bringing their total holdings to 1,502,221 shares or about 19%. Roseman also bought a few more shares–1,600 at $8.90 to $9.12.
Down 3%. BUY.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.67, (was $6.98 after double up ($10,000 added) NEW Valuation $13.32 (was $12.89, $13.40)
Down $.25 to $7.00.
Penninsula Capital owns 1.67 million shares or over 20% of MEDW. Not sure how they liguidate there stake profitably without a takeover
UP 5%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $7.26, Valuation $11.51
Down $.13 to $6.35.
No news.
Down 13%. HOLD

Top Image Systems, Ltd. (TISA-Recommended 9/27/2007)
Buy Price $3.28, Valuation $5.46
Down $.17 to $2.58.
TISA pre-announced Q3 five weeks ago. They will not do over $7 million in revenue and will do only between $6 and $6.3 million–and will lose between $1.4 and $1.6 million. Some of this loss is from integration costs from their acquisitions of Asiasoft and CPL, but not clear how much. The final earnings release will not be out until November 28th. They still have plenty of cash, but looks like we will be waiting another quarter or two to make money on this one.
Down 21%. HOLD

Angeion Corp. (ANGN-Recommended 10/14/2007)
Buy Price $7.55, Valuation $13.67
Down $.03 to $6.36.
No news.
Down 16%. BUY

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.62 (Was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $7.58 (was $7.59)
UP $.39 to $2.68.
No news.

PDL Biopharma. (PDLI-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $20.04, Valuation $24.00 to $30.00
Down $.04 to $17.99.
Third Point, the guys who started all the commotion about getting the CEO out and selling the company—sold all their shares. Lots of speculation as to why–but no one knows for sure except Third Point.
At 7X the royalty revenue and 3X the product sales, you get $2.1 billion in value comapared to the current market cap of $2.1 billion. Their pipeline, and know-how has to be worth something.
No matter, they are still trying to sell the company.
So we are just waiting for them to announce the sale of the company and for how much.
Down 10%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.39
UP $.31 to $4.12.
There is value here.
No news.
Trading at only 44% of our valuation.
Down 4%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.49 (was $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.40, unchanged.
Back to sleep on ARI. Maybe some day their managment will take care of us shareholders.
Now down 13%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.23 (was $.36 before double-up on investment), Valuation $.29 (was $.49, $.57, $.62, $.66 and before that $.79)
Sold at $.10 last week. 57% loser.

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.34 (was $2.28, $2.89, $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.22, down $.03.
Has cash of $.38 per share–30% of the market cap.
In late June, OPTIO announced they had hired an investment banker to help them review the “Strategic Alternatives” related to their Healthcare software division. In other words, a “for sale” sign has gone up. Having been through their SEC filings, there appears to be no disclosure on the sales or operating results for this “division”, so there is no way for us to determine what this could mean from a valuation standpoint.
It has been over 4 months now since their announcement–We would expect to hear an update SOON. They said in their latest earnings release that their healthcare business exceeded their goals. They better get a good price for this.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year–but may not happen now unless next quarter rebounds with some decent profit numbers, or they get a good deal on the Healthcare “division”.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.99 (was $1.19 before double up ($10,000 added), New Valuation $3.05 (was $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.89, down $.01.
AVSO announced Q1 earnings 2 weeks ago. Not bad at all, in our opinion. Sales were up to $12.4 million from $12 million last year (3%), but net income was up to $489,000 from $36,000 last year. Earnings per share were $.02. Our valuation is now $3.05 per share. AVSO is trading at 30% of our valuation.
We are guessing $55 million of revenue this year and being profitable–which should yield a valuation of over $3.50 a share, and hopefully a share price of at least $2.00–up 100% from here.
Now down 10%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, NEw Valuation $1.17 (Was $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price unchanged at $.30. Closed at $.27.
Earning out 2 weeks ago. Sales were $5.35 million, up 68% from $3.2 million last year.
Without about $800,000 of patent enforcement costs, they would have broken even for the quarter, but this all dropped to the bottom line for a $808,000 loss–$.03 per share. One of these days CTIG is going to hit on all cylinders and get to $1.
Our valuation dropped a bit to $1.17, but, this is still trading at only 26% of our latest valuation.
Up 11% based on the ASK price. BUY


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s