Summer vacation last week.

We went 5 and 7 over the last 2 weeks. While the markets in general have been doing well over the last couple of weeks, this has not translated to our mini-cap stocks—yet. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain dropped .8% to a 14.2% gain–still better than all the indexes, but not where we want to be. MIVA is still our biggest dog, followed by DWCH, LINN.ob. Since the start of the year we are 11 up and 4 down.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

ARIS-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.21). Closed at $2.05, down $.01. Announced another expanded customer relationship and nothing happened. All these customer wins should translate into continued revenue and earnings improvements. At some point investors will take notice and this will take-off–we believe. Down .5% so far. BUY if you can find some shares.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.01 at $9.99. Yield about 3%. A group called Costa Brava Partnership is offering to buy the Class A stock at a “substantial premium”. The company has rejected this offer. The company is “in-play”. CB owns 7.9% of the stock. No news last week on anything. Up 6% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $7.60, down $.01. Trading at only 55% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 10% so far. BUY.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $19.84, up $1.45. Now up 3%. Nice to be in the plus column on this one finally. News last week that one drug partnership was canceled, but the stock went up. I think the expectation is that expenses will be reduced and profitability will increase. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.38 (was $9.10)). MIVA closed at $2.54, up $.19. Now down 33% on this one. No news. BUY.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.93, up $.08, still a loser–down 20%. HOLD.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was $7.32)). Down $.07 to $4.15. Still has $2.52 per share in cash and valuation only fell a little, but lowering our price objective to $5.50. Now up 1%. BUY.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79)). Closed at $.32, up $.01. Still trading at less than 50% of our current valuation. Down 11% YTD. Volume seems to be picking up and we are still seeing some sizable bids for 50,000–75,000 shares from time-to-time. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.40, up $.20. Now up 12% to date. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock closed at $1.71), down $.09 from $1.80. Now only up 44%. Waiting on year-end results for AVSO. Could be burdened with some acquisition and capital raising charges, but we expect to see some good operating results. Still only trading at 50% of our valuation. BUY.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price stayed at $.37. Closed at $.34. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 37% (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.10 at $2.50, still up 31% so far. IYXI released earnings last week. Another sizable loss-$9.8 million (it did have some special charges related to 2 pending acquisitions in there of about $3 million and non-cash stuff of another $2 million). Their bank debt is high and they have some issues there. Revenues were up 137% to $20.1 million. But if their predictions come true–profits in Q4 and $140 million in revenue next year this should soar. Risky because of the continued losses and debt load so HOLD.

This one is as “thin” as they get. I think it took me over a month to buy 15,000 shares.

But, ARI continues to grow sales and earnings every year, has gross margins over 80%, has net-cash of $.20 a share and a valuation of $5.21 a share. It is also profitable. So it is trading at 40% of valuation.

ARI does online catalogues and related services for manufactured equipment makers. They keep spewing out new customer and expanded customer relationship press releases and the the stock does nothing. This is just a steady, 3 yards and a cloud of dust growth company so far. But it is so far undervalued that I just couldn’t not recommend this anymore. When it is discovered, it should be a 50-100% gainer. BUY

Sorry we missed our update last week (don’t ask). We will update performance from 2 weeks ago, today.

We broke even over the last 2 weeks, 5 up, 5 down and 1 even. However, our model portfolio year-to-date gain dropped 3% to a 15% gain, mostly due to MIVA and OPTO.ob. MIVA is still our biggest dog, followed by DWCH, LINN.ob, PDLI and then OPTO.ob. Since the start of the year we are 9 up and 5 down. No buys or sells this past 2 weeks.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed up $.27 for the week at $10.00. Yield about 3%. A group called Costa Brava Partnership is offering to buy the Class A stock at a “substantial premium”. The company has rejected this offer. The company is “in-play”. CB owns 7.9% of the stock. No news last week on anything. Up 6% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $7.61, up $.01. QADI released earning last week–not bad. The valuation has moved up to $13.73, so at the current price it is trading at only 55% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 10% so far. BUY.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $18.39, up $.95 from last week. Now down only 5%. Volatile stock. BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.38 (was $9.10)). MIVA closed at $2.35, down $.48. Now down 38% on this one. MIVA released Q2 results week before last. They reported a whopping $73 million loss ($2.29 a share), but after deducting a BS goodwill write-off of $64 million and another $5.8 million of stock expense, severance and restucturing charges, they only lost about $3.5 million. This still stinks. The valuation sank to $7.38 from the previous $9.10, but the stock is still selling at only 32% of its valuation–and it has $1.16 a share in cash (49% of its market value). The risk here of course that the Googles and other search engines continue to eat MIVA’s lunch (like Walmart did to regional retailers). But at this price, I will be in there buying on Monday. BUY.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.85, down $.11 from last week, still a loser–down 22%. HOLD.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was $7.32)). Up $.22 to $4.22 last week. Still has $2.52 per share in cash and valuation only fell a little, but lowering our price objective to $5.50. Now up 3%. BUY.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79)). Closed at $.31, up $.02. Still trading at less than 50% of our current valuation. Down 14% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.20, down $.10. They just keep announcing new customers and the market yawns and bids up Yahoo and Amazon. I’ll continue to skip those and stay with OPTO. Now down 4% to date. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock closed at $1.8), down $.09 from $1.89. Now only up 51%. Wainting on year-end results for AVSO. Could be burdened with some acquisition and capital raising charges, but we expect to see some good operating results. Still only trading at 50% of our valuation. BUY.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price fell to $.37 (down $.05). Closed at $.34. Cash is $.28 per share. CTIG realeased earning also. Not great but (sales down a bit and had a book loss of $.01 per share) the valuation increased to $1.05 and net cash was $.26 per share. Up 37% (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed at same price as 2 weeks ago– $2.60, still up 36% so far. HOLD

Although our losers outnumbered our winners last week, our model portfolio year-to-date gain nudged up 1% to 18% due to decent gains in AVSO.ob and IYXI.ob. MIVA is still our biggest dog, followed by Linn.ob, DWCH, PDLI and then INFT. Last week we had 2 up, 8 down and 1 even. Since the start of the year we are 9 up and 5 down. No buys or sells this past week.
Our model portfolio based on the stocks in this Blog is up 18% so far this year (up 1% from last week). This model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.02 for the week at $9.73. Yield about 3%. A group called Costa Brava Partnership is offering to buy the Class A stock at a “substantial premium”. The company has rejected this offer. The company is “in-play”. CB owns 7.9% of the stock. No news last week on anything. Up 3% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.60, down $.03. Up 10% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $17.44, down $.93 from last week. Now down 10%. PDLI announced earnings last week. GAAP loss, Non-GAAP profit. They are now generating $200 million a year in royalties which alone is almost worth the current market cap. They lost one clinical candidate that they acquired last year–don’t see this as a big deal. Big drugs in the pipeline, royalties are growing. This is still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $2.83, down $.11 from last week. Now down 26% on this one. HOLD.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31). Closed at $2.96, down $.09 from last week, still a loser–down 19%. HOLD.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was $7.32). Down $.25 to $4.00 last week. Still has $2.52 per share in cash and valuation only fell a little, but lowering our price objective to $5.50. Now down 3%. BUY.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79). Closed at $.29, even on the week. Linn announced earnings last week, had a small loss of about $150,000, excluding special items. Volume in the stock soared last week and we saw some sizable bids (like 80,000 shares) which is encouraging. Still trading at less than 50% of our current valuation. Down 19% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.30, down $.10 from last week. Now up 4% to date. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock rebounded last week to $1.89, up $.26 from $1.53. Now only up 59%. Not as cheap as last week, but still only trading at 50% of our valuation. BUY.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price fell to $.42 (down $.02) last week. Closed at $.42. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 56% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed up $.11 from last week at $2.60, up 36% so far. HOLD

No luck on the earnings front. DWCH and INFT dissapointed. MIVA is our biggest dog, followed by Linn.ob, DWCH and then PDLI. Last week we had 5 up, 6 down. Since the start of the year we are still 10 up and 4 down. No buys or sells this past week.

Our model portfolio based on the stocks in this Blog is up 17% so far this year. Not as good as we would like, but not bad given the choppy market and 4 losers we have right now (we shoot for 80% win rate–not our current 71%). This model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.03 for the week at $9.75. Yield about 3%. A group called Costa Brava Partnership is offering to buy the Class A stock at a “substantial premium”. The company has rejected this offer. The company is “in-play”. CB owns 7.9% of the stock. Up 3% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.63, up $.29. Up 10% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $18.37, up $1.86 from last week. Now down 5%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $2.94, up $.19 from last week. Now down 23% on this one. HOLD.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31). Closed at $3.05, down $.56 from last week, still a loser–down 17%. See our previous post. HOLD.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was$7.32). Down $.52 to $4.25 last week. Still has $2.52 per share in cash and valuation only fell a little, but lowering our price objective to $5.50. Now up only 3%. HOLD.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.29, down $.03. Now down 19% YTD. HOLD–let’s see what earning look like.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.40, up $.17 from last week. Now up 12% to date. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell another $.28 from last week to $1.53. Now only up 29%. This looks like steal here–BUY.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price rose to $.44 (up $.01) last week. Closed at $.42. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 63% (based on asked price). Bid price was up to $.42. HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.11 from last week at $2.49, up 30% so far. HOLD

DWCH released 6/30 results this morning. Dissappointing to say the least. Sales were down from last year despite the recent acquisition being in effect for 2 months of the quarter. Stock got hammered on low volume (22,000 shares right now) down as low as $2.51. Seems to be rising a bit now, but big damage has been done. Lost $315,000 for the quarter–merger related expenses cited–but not how much. New valuation has come down to $7.63–still, at this price the discount to valuation says hold, and maybe buy more and average down a bit. Think this is an overreaction in a “thin” stock.

Our worst week of the year. Despite the brief rally in the markets, down, is the direction. Hopefully some good earning reports will appear for our stocks in the next couple of weeks and we will get some upwards pops. MIVA is our biggest dog, but PDLI is catching up. Last week we had 1 up, 9 down. CAW is looking interesting (see below). Since the start of the year we are still 9 up and 5 down. No buys or sells this past week. Looking at a number of stocks that look cheap–and they continue to get cheaper the longer we wait. We would rather miss them than make a mistake.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.20 for the week at $9.78. Yield about 3%. A group called Costa Brava Partnership is offering to buy the Class A stock at a “substantial premium”. Hopefully this is the catalyst we have been waitng for. CB owns 7.9% of the stock. Maybe management will do something for us shareholders to unlock the value here. Up 3% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.34, down $.36. Up 11% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $16.51, down $.75 from last week. Now down 15%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $2.75, down $.05 from last week. Now down 28% on this one. HOLD.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $9.31). Closed at $3.61, up $.01 from last week, still a loser–down 1%. The discount to the valuation is just too big. Still a BUY.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $7.32). Down $.02 to $4.77 last week. Still up 16%. HOLD for $6.00.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.32, down $.04. Now down 11% YTD. Still a BUY.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.23, down $.03 from last week. Now down 2% to date. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell another $.14 from last week to $1.81. Now only up 52%. BUY

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price fell to $.43 (down $.02) last week. Closed at $.43. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 59% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.05 from last week at $2.60, up 36% so far. Announced some new business deals last week, but nobody cared. HOLD

What a crummy market. It has gotten very painful, but despite the carnage out there we did not really have too bad a week. MIVA is our biggest dog, but we are hopeful that it will rebound–it will just take time. A number of companies we are watching warned on earnings over the last several weeks, got hammered and could be buys–if this market ever looks like it will turn around. Last week we had 2 up, 7 down, 1 even. Since the start of the year we are still 10 up and 3 down and 1 even. No buys or sells this past week.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.43 for the week at $9.98. Yield about 3%. Up 6% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.70, down $.15. Up 11% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $17.26, down $1.44 from last week. Now down 11%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $2.80, down $.75 from last week. It was a bad time to issue a warning. Now down 26% on this one. HOLD.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $9.31). Closed at $3.60, up $.12 from last week, still a loser–down 2%. The discount to the valuation is just too big. Still a BUY.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $7.32). Up $.14 to $4.79 last week. Still up 17%. HOLD for $6.00.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.36, even on the week and YTD. Still a BUY.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.26, down $.04 from last week. Weird trading on Friday again. Jumped to $1.51 on about 20,000 shares, than dropped to $1.26 when someone put 10,000 shares for sale at $1.31–and only got 500 done. Gut says to snap these up if they are still available on Monday–but this market is too scary to buy anything right now. In the plus column up 1% to date. BUY.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell another $.10 from last week to $1.95. Now only up 64%. BUY

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price jumped to $.45 last week. Closed at $.35. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 67% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.02 from last week at $2.65, up 39% so far. Jumped $.20 one day last week–then the market took over. Maybe some good news on quarterly results coming? HOLD

Last week we had 4 up, 6 down, 1 even. Since the start of the year we are still 10 up and 3 down and 1 even. No buys or sells this past week. CAW made a nice upside move, but MIVA went the other way.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed up $1.19 for the week at $10.41. Apparently releasing their earnings twice worked a bit, they were good. Yield about 2.5%. Up 10% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.85, up $.12. Got up over $8 several times last week–but then Friday happened. No news. Up 13% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $18.70, up $.29 from last week. Now down 3%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $3.55, down $.50 from last week. They warned on this quarter’s earning. They will miss sales by 2-3 million and bottom line too. They didn’t say how much. Will update valuation when all the numbers comes out. The valuation will go down, but not enough to cause us to sell yet. Now down 7% on this one. WAIT.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $9.31). Closed at $3.48, down $.10 from last week, still a loser–down 5%. The discount to the valuation is just too big. Still a BUY.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $7.32). Down $.11 to $4.65 last week. Still up 13%. Hold for $6.00.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.36, down $.02 from last week. Now even on this one. Still a BUY.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.30, down $.10 from last week. They announced that the CEO sold 200,000 shares last week. Never a good thing, but it is like 3% of what he owns. Stock just can’t get out of its own way. In the plus column up 4%. to date. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell $.10 from last week to $2.05. Now only up 72%. BUY

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price stayed the same at $.38 last week. Closed at $.35. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 41% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed up $.07 from last week at $2.67, up 40%. HOLD

Last week we had 5 up, 5 down, 1 even. Since the start of the year we are still 11 up and 3 down. No buys or sells this past week.

Just as a post-mortem, ONXS received a new all cash take-over offer from CDC last week–$5.00, 97% of what our valuation came up with.

Looking hard at Elizabeth Arden (RDEN). Almost bought last week when it fell under $17. Valuation is $33 a share, but it has a lot of debt, which makes us pause. No opinion yet.

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.25 for the week at $9.22. CAW was dropped from the Russell index on Friday, but the fundamentals are good. They released earnings last week also, sales up 3%. Earnings were down 3%, but they would have been up 42% (!) if they hadn’t had to change the way they account for advertising expenses. Earnings comparisons for the next 2 quarters should be very good, as they were deferring some of these advetising expenses into future quarters in the past, rather than expenseing them all in Q2. Yield about 3%. Down 2% so far. BUY.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuaton $11.86). Closed at $7.73, up $.68. Got up to $7.99 on Friday but couldn’t hold there. No news. Up 12% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $18.41, up $.94 from last week. Now down 5%. Still a BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.10). MIVA closed at $4.05, up $.08 from last week. Up 7% on this one. BUY.

Datawatch-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $9.31). Closed at $3.58, down $.05 from last week, but still a loser–down 2%. The discount to the valuation is just too big. Still a BUY.

Inforte-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $7.32). Down $.14 to $4.76 last week. Still up 16%. Hold for $6.00.

OB-abies

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.79). Closed at $.38, up $.01 from last week. Up 6% Still a BUY.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.40, up $.19 from last week Back in the plus column up 12%. A 400,000 share block traded on Friday, so hopefully the recent selling pressure will let up and this will crack over $1.50 which seems hard for this stock to do. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock fell $.05 from last week to $2.15. Now only up 81%. BUY

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $.82). Ask price stayed the same at $.38 last week. Closed at $.35. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 41% (based on asked price). HOLD.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.05 from last week at $2.60, up 36%. HOLD