QAD released “earnings” last night. Not that bad in our opinion. The stock has taken it on the chin since last Fridays “warning” and is down $.99 since last week at $8.38. We are still up 21%, but of course would have liked to sell it at $10.

Our new valuation based on the quarter is $11.27 down from $15.92. Most of the hit came from a $10 million sales decline from last quarter which looks like the stongest seasonal quarter of the year for QAD. Based on QAD’s lastest guidance, our valuation is $14.59, so if they perform as projected, there is still considerable upside here. But until they show it, this is a HOLD.

Just a note. Agile Software got a buy-out offer from Oracle last week. The offer was $8.10 a share and AGIL jumped about $1 or 15% on the offer. We have looked at AGIL before and did not think it was a compelling value, so we reran our valuation formula on their last quarterly results and came up with $7.47 a share. So prior to the offer AGIL was trading at 90% of our valuation–not enough to get us to buy.

Lots of action this week on the earnings front–CTIG.ob, LINN.ob, AVSO.ob and BDR.

CTIG.ob–New valuation-$1.29, down from $1.42, but based on real results not “pro-forma” estimates. This is still a BUY at the current $.39 ASK.

LINN.ob–New valuation-$.49, down from $.57. Still a HOLD and a prayer at $.16.

AVSO.ob–New valuation-$3.25, down from $3.29. A BUY at today’s price of $1.25.

BDR–New valuation-$4.01, down from $5.12. HOLD. Q1 is supposed to be a seasonally weak quarter, and at $1.55 it is not a sell.

We bought and sold this one last year for a 41% gain. Our valuation has moved up since then to $8.70. So at 60% of our valuation we think this is a good re-entry point again. Got $2 a share in cash also.

Well INFT got a take-over offer this morning. The price is way low in our opinion, but we will not fight it. SELL at $4.15. for a 11% gain. It was not worth the wait. But we did not lose money on it.

Last week we went 5 up and 10 down and 1 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by PARL, INFT, ARIS.ob, SPNC, BDR and ILOG. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -1.3%,+15.1% and +32.8% respectively. Since inception we are now 14 stocks up and 7 down (4 of which are down less than 10%).

We were down 1.3% this past week and are now up 15.1% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 ranged from down .4% to up .5% last week, and are all now up from 6.1% to 6.9% for the year. We are still are up more than double the averages in 2007.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

MIVA announced earnings last week and QAD announced preliminary earnings last week.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.28 to $9.84 last week.
No signiciant news. We are just waiting for FDA approval. If the TURBO-Booster is approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now down 8% so far. BUY.

QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.37, down $.26.
Earnings due Thursday, May 17th after the close.
On May 11th, QAD announced that they will miss their quarter numbers. Sales are expected to come in around $56 million instead of $58-$61 million and they will lose $.02-.04 (excluding stock expense BS) instead of making a penny or 2. Stock will probably go down, as will our valuation. However, we think the stock will end up being still significantly undervalued once the actual results are out.
Up 35% so far. HOLD.

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $26.03, up $.40.
No significant news last week.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company and has more than $200 million invested. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 35%. HOLD.

MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, NEW Valuation $9.00 (was $7.37, $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.22, down $.15 for the week.
Earnings were OK. Sales were $43.2 million and they actually made a bit of money on a non-GAAP basis. Our valuation moved up to $9.00, as margins expanded and losses were cut.
Now up 11%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.20 (was $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $4.95, down $.09 for the week.
DWCH pulled back a bit after jumping 42% last week. This one still looks cheap compared to our valuation.
If this gets to $7 we would sell.
No other news.
Now up 54%. HOLD.

Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $3.74 (averaged down from $4.11), Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Up $.02 at $3.20 last week.
This IS ridiculous. Cash is 83% of the market cap.
Earnings are out on May 14th, after the close.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 14%. BUY.

RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $1.95 (Was $3.36, $2.69)
Closed up $.09 at $1.42 last week.
One good quarter should drive the valuation back over $3 and hopefully the price over $2.
Up 42%. HOLD.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.85, up $.30 last week.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 21%. HOLD.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.70 down $.05 for the week.
No news. Trading at 33% of our valuation.
Earnings out 5/15 in the morning.
Down 7%. BUY

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.99 (was $20.52)
Closed at $12.70 last week, up $.09.
No news.
Down 7%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
Down $.09 to $9.03 last week
With the insider buying in the last couple of months, we like this stock alot.
Up 2%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

Our OB’s continued to be pretty much ignored last week as there are other stocks to chase with the strong markets.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.90, down $.10 last week.
No news.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 8%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.16, down another $.02 last week.
Now trading at only 28% of our current valuation.
This one has cost us 4% off our total 2007 performance so far.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around.
Down 56%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter(s)).

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.27, down $.03 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share–35% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
No news.
2% gain so far. BUY.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.30, down $.10.
AVSO got below $1.20 for a while last week, but rebounded.
Earnings out 5/15 in the morning.
No other news.
Now up 9%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.42 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price was unchanged at $.42. Closed at $.40.
Volume was only 12,500 shares last week.
This is still trading at only 30% of our latest valuation.
No news.
Up 56% based on the ASK price. HOLD

Last week we went 5 up and 7 down and 4 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by PARL, INFT, ILOG, SPNC, BDR and ARIS.ob. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +3.7%,+16.4% and +34.3% respectively. Since inception we are now 14 stocks up and 7 down (5 of which is down less than 10%).

We went in the same direction as the market again last week-UP-but much better. We were up 3.7% this past week and are now up 16.4% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 all gained from .5% to 1.1% last week, and are all now up from 6.2% to 6.5% for the year. We are still are up more than double the averages.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

NTCT +44%
ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
DTLK +41%
CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

PDLI, DWCH and RITT all announced earnings last week.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.54 to $10.12 last week.
SPNC filed their TURBO Booster 501k application last week–earlier than expected and the stock went down. This just confirms our belief that this stock is being manipulated big-time. I have owned this stock for almost 10 years and have never seen trading in it like this. Patience should win out here. The company is doing all the right things to propel the stock to $20. If CELLO is approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now down 5% so far. BUY.

QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.63, up $.03.
Earnings due Thursday, May 17th after the close.
Trading at 60% of our valuation.
Up 39% so far. HOLD.

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $25.63, down $.13.
Revenues up 18%, Non-GAAP income up to $.09 per share versus $.03 last year. They updated their Non-GAAP income guidance to $.42 to $.58 per share for the year. Growing revenues, growing income, great pipeline, the CEO under pressure to improve the stock price. Lots of catalysts–which we like. Shooting for at least $30 a share on this one.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company and has more than $200 million invested. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 33%. HOLD.

MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.37, unchanged for the week.
Earnings due out May 7th, after the close.
No news.
Now up 15%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), NEW Valuation $9.20 (was $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $5.04, up $1.49 for the week (42%).
Earnings were good and the stock reacted. Sales up 14% and made $.08 per share (not taxed). Price got to $5.64 on Friday before falling back. Volume averaged 275,000 shares per day. As we said before about some of our illiquid stocks, they don’t trade a lot until something happens–then it is usually too late.
New valuation is $9.20 per share. If this gets to $7 we would sell.
No other news.
Now up 57%. HOLD.

Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $3.74 (averaged down from $4.11), Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Unchanged at $3.18 last week.
This IS ridiculous. Cash is 83% of the market cap.
Earnings are out on May 14th, after the close.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 15%. BUY.

RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, NEW Valuation $1.95 (Was $3.36, $2.69)
Unchanged at $1.33 last week.
Earnings last week, but no impact. Sales were up a tad–4%, and they still lost money–$788,000 or $.05 per share. Our valuation dropped all the way down to $1.95, but we are not selling as this seems to be their weakest sales quarter, and they have yet to show any progress on their “carrier” business, which they keep saying is coming in 2007. One good quarter should drive the valuation back over $3 and hopefully the price over $2.
Up 33%. HOLD.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), NEW Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.55, down $.17 last week.
No news last week and the stock continued to drift down. The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 25%. HOLD.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.75 up $.01 for the week.
No news. Trading at 34% of our valuation.
Down 4%. BUY

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.99 (was $20.52)
Closed at $12.61 last week, down $.16.
No news.
Down 7%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
Up $.17 to $9.12 last week
On Thursday BDAY spiked up to $10.00 on 50,000 shares, but couldn’t hold there and gave most of it back on 38,000 shares. With the insider buying in the last couple of months, we like this stock alot.
Up 3%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

Our OB’s were pretty much ignored last week as there are other stocks to chase with the strong markets.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.00, down $.02 last week.
No news.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 2%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.18, even last week.
Now trading at only 32% of our current valuation.
This one has cost us 3% off our total 2007 performance so far.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around.
Down 50%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.30, down $.05 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share–35% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
4% gain so far. BUY.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.40, up $.03.
No news.
Now up 18%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.42 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price moved down $.08 to $.42. Closed at $.40.
This is still trading at only 30% of our latest valuation.
No news.
Up 56% based on the ASK price. HOLD.

Announced this morning. They were an upside surprise! Stock is up to $4.38 up $.83 or 23%. Our valuation moved up to $9.20. Looks like there is still room to run–quite a bit. HOLD.

Last week we went 7 up and 9 down again. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by PARL, INFT, ILOG, BDR and ARIS.ob. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +2%,+12.7% and +30.0% respectively. Since inception we are now 15 stocks up and 6 down (3 of which is down less than 10%).

We actually went in the same direction as the market last week. We were up 2% this past week and are now up 12.7% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 all gained from .7% to 1.2% last week, and are all now up from 5.3% to 5.9% for the year. We are still are up more than double the averages.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

NTCT +44%
ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
DTLK +41%
CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

ILOG announced earnings last week. Our OB-abies continued to drift down–except for CTIG.ob which is now up 85%.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.43 to $10.66 last week.
Short interest as of April 13th, rose again to 4.1 million shares from 3.36 million in March. Short interest was 1.8 million in December. We don’t get it at all, but the shorts are controlling the “vertical” as far as we can see–for now. Everything is going fine here. SPNC expects to file the CELLO (above-the-knee) 501k application with the FDA in less than 30 days. If approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now up .1% so far. BUY.

QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.60, down $.57.
No news. QAD finally paused in its upward climb.
Earnings due Thursday, May 17th after the close.
Trading at 60% of our valuation.
Up 39% so far. HOLD.

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $25.76, up $1.63.
Earnings due out on May 2nd, after the close.
PDL also announced that they are moving forward on Nuvion trails based on results so far.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company and has more than $200 million invested. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 33%. HOLD.

MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.37, up $.03.
Earnings due out May 7th, after the close.
No news.
Now up 15%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $3.55, up $.32 for the week.
Earnings scheduled for April 30th, before the close.
No other news.
Now up 11%. HOLD.

Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $3.74 (averaged down from $4.11), Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
UP! A big $.02 at $3.18 last week.
This IS ridiculous. Cash is 83% of the market cap.
Earnings are out on May 14th, after the close.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 15%. BUY.

RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
Closed down another $.03 at $1.33 last week.
No news. Bought a little more of this last week at $1.35.
Earnings due out on May 3rd, before the open.
Up 33%. BUY.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), NEW Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.72, down $.19 last week.
No news last week and the stock continued to drift down. The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 23%. HOLD.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.74 down $.17 for the week.
No news. Trading at 34% of our valuation.
Down 5%. BUY

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, NEW Valuation $20.99 (was $20.52)
Closed at $12.77 last week, down $.96.
Earnings last week. Sales were up 7%, but profit was down from $.15 to $.04. So the stock tanked on 800 shares traded. Guidance was unchanged for revenues (up 17%+) but the outlook for profit was cut to flat vs. last year (note-their year ends 6/30). Our valuation went UP to $20.99.
Down 6%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
Up $.49 to $8.95 last week
BDAY announced some lay-offs last week to get more efficient. Good.
Up 6%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.02, up $.07 last week.
No news.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 2%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.18, down $.03 last week.
Now trading at only 32% of our current valuation.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around.
Down 50%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter). I bought a little more on Friday at $.18.

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.35, down $.11 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share–35% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
8% gain so far. BUY.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.37, down $.11.
No news. Bought a little more on Friday myself at $1.40.
Now up 15%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.42 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price moved up $.14 to $.50. Closed at $.45.
This is still trading at only 35% of our latest valuation.
No news.
Up 85% based on the ASK price. HOLD.

Last week we went 7 up and 9 down. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by PARL, INFT, ARIS and our newest stock-BDAY. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -3.8,+10.7% and +27.7% respectively. Since inception we are now 16 stocks up and 5 down (1 of which is down less than 10%).

We paid for our big week last week with a 3.75 drop this past week and are now up 10.7% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 all gained from 1.4-2.8% last week, and are all now up from 4% to 4.7% for the year. We are definitely moving conversely to the averages the past few weeks, but still are up more than double the averages.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

NTCT +44%
ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
DTLK +41%
CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC announced earnings last week. PARL took it on the chin after their weak earnings report and our OB-abies got little attention as buyers ignored most of them.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Up $.19 to $11.09 last week.
Q1,revenues came in at $17.4 million, up 28% over the prior year, but below some analysts estimates of over $18 million. SPNC had a small loss ($65,000) after a non-cash stock compensation expense charge of $669,000. They reaffirmed annual guidance of revenues of $79-$82 million and net income to be about break-even (+-). Everything is going fine here. They also expect to file the CELLO (above-the-knee) 501k application with the FDA in the next 30 days. If approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now up 4% so far. BUY.

QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $10.17, up $.12.
No news. But volume continues to be good, along with the price.
Earnings due Thursday, May 17th after the close.
Trading at 64% of our valuation.
Up 47% so far. HOLD.

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $24.13, down $.19.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. Another letter was sent to the CEO on April 17th. Looks like they are serious about unlocking the value here with over $200 million invested. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 25%. HOLD.

MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.34, up $.13.
No news.
Now up 14%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $3.23, down $.19 for the week.
Earnings scheduled for April 30th, before the close.
No other news.
Now up 1%. BUY.

Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $3.74 (averaged down from $4.11), Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Closed down another $.09 at $3.16 last week.
This IS ridiculous. Cash is now 84% of the market cap.
Earnings are out on May 14th, after the close.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 15%. BUY.

RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
Closed down another $.02 at $1.36 last week.
No news.
Up 36%. BUY.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), NEW Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.91, down $.86 last week.
Investors ran from PARL last week over the disappointing earnings report. Lost in this was the fact that they will remain listed on NASDAQ. The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 20%. HOLD.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.91 up $.02 for the week.
No news. Trading at 37% of our valuation.
Up 4%. BUY

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.52
Closed at $13.73 last week, up $.17.
No news.
Up 2%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
No news last week.
The insider buying has been impressive of late. We bought more ourselves at $8.65. Volume has dried up and there appear to only sellers (small ones) around right now. May buy more next week
Down 4%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.95, down $.07 last week.
No news.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 5%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.21, down $.02 last week.
Now trading at only 40% of our current valuation.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around.
Down 42%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.43, down $.07 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share–33% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
14% gain so far. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.48, up $.02.
No news.
Now up 24%. HOLD.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.28 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price moved up $.01 to $.36. Closed at $.35.
This is now trading at only 28% of our latest valuation.
No news.
Up 33% based on the ASK price. HOLD.

Celebrate Express, Inc. (NASDAQ–BDAY)
Valuation-$18.18
Closing price April 18, 2007-$8.82

This one is a bit different for us, as BDAY is a retailer, but like Amazon, it only sells online. BDAY is recovering from a distribution snafu last year. Management now says that this is behind them and it is onward and upward from here.

Q3 results (2/28/2007) showed an 11% sales drop and a $137,000 loss (down from the prior year).There a bit under 8 million shares outstanding and they reported 55% gross margins and have $2.78 a share in cash (after a special $1.25 per share dividend that went to record holders as of April 12, 2007). We are betting on BDAY rebounding from their distribution woes and winning customers back (although this will take some marketing dollars to do). Q3 is also historically one of their lowest sales volume quarters.

Our valuation is based on $82 million in annual sales (they should easily beat this) and a small annual book loss.

One director and another insider have been buying a lot of shares from $8.75 to $10 in 2007 so far.

We bought some this week at $8.85. Average daily trading volume has been nearly 100,000 shares a day, although the past few days it has been closer to 30,000 shares.

We think anything under $9.00 is a good price.

BDAY is trading at 49% of our valuation.

About Celebrate Express, Inc.
Celebrate Express is a leading online and catalog retailer of celebration products serving families with young children. The Company currently operates two brands: Birthday Express markets children’s party products, and Costume Express markets costumes and accessories. The Company utilizes its branded website Celebrateexpress.com, complemented by its branded catalogs, to offer products as complete coordinated solutions. The Company’s goal is to help families celebrate the special moments in their lives. For more information, please visit http://www.celebrateexpress.com.