Qad

QAD released “earnings” last night. Not that bad in our opinion. The stock has taken it on the chin since last Fridays “warning” and is down $.99 since last week at $8.38. We are still up 21%, but of course would have liked to sell it at $10.

Our new valuation based on the quarter is $11.27 down from $15.92. Most of the hit came from a $10 million sales decline from last quarter which looks like the stongest seasonal quarter of the year for QAD. Based on QAD’s lastest guidance, our valuation is $14.59, so if they perform as projected, there is still considerable upside here. But until they show it, this is a HOLD.

Just a note. Agile Software got a buy-out offer from Oracle last week. The offer was $8.10 a share and AGIL jumped about $1 or 15% on the offer. We have looked at AGIL before and did not think it was a compelling value, so we reran our valuation formula on their last quarterly results and came up with $7.47 a share. So prior to the offer AGIL was trading at 90% of our valuation–not enough to get us to buy.

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