Last week we went 10 up and 3 down and 3 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by PARL, BDR, ARIS.ob, ILOG and SPNC. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +4.1%,+23.4% and +42.4% respectively. Since inception we are now 17 stocks up and 6 down (4 of which are down less than 10%).
We were up 4.1% this past week and are now up 23.4% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all up with gains ranging from 1.2% (DOW) to up 2.2% (NASDAQ) last week, and are all now up from 8.2% (NASDAQ) to 9.7% (DOW) for the year. We are still are up more than double the averages in 2007.
Since inception we have closed out the following positions:
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007 DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
For the 10 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 35%. We are tired of watching our stocks go up–and then down. So we are planning to take profits a bit sooner than in 2006. We have already closed out 6 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Up $.14 to $10.09 last week.
Short interest is 4.4 million shares. No signiciant news. We are just waiting for FDA approval. If the TURBO-Booster is approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now down 5% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $11.27 (was $15.92, $13.69, $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $8.29, up $.27.
We should have sold this at $10. Next time.
Our valuation has fallen from $15.92 to $11.27, but if they can hit their guidance for the year, the valuation would be approximately $14.60–72% above the current price. But since they seem to have trouble hitting their numbers–we will hold for now.
Up 20% so far. HOLD.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $27.60, up $.14.
The letter war continues between Third Point and PDLI management and Board. Price continues to increase.
If this reaches $30, without a buy-out, we would sell.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company and has more than $200 million invested. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 43%. HOLD.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $9.00 (was $7.37, $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
SOLD last week at $5.90 for a 55% gain.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.20 (was $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $5.24, up $.43 for the week.
If this gets to $7 we would sell.
Now up 63%. HOLD.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $1.95 (Was $3.36, $2.69)
SOLD last week at $1.62 for a 62% gain.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.49, up $.08 last week.
No news. New management needs to get to work on this one fast.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 27%. HOLD.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $4.01 (was $5.12, $5.88).
Closed at $1.65 up $.02 for the week.
Our valuation has dropped to $4.01. BDR is still cheap in our opinion, but they need a decent quarter to get this stock moving up.
Trading at 41% of our valuation.
Down 10%. HOLD
ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.99 (was $20.52)
Closed at $12.76 last week, down $.17.
Down 6%. BUY
Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
Up $.16 to $8.86 last week
With the insider buying in the last couple of months, we like this stock alot.
Up 1%. BUY
Datalink (DTLK-recommended 5/14/2007
Buy Price $5.20, Valuation $8.70
SOLD last week at $6.50 for a 25% gain in 2weeks.
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.90, up $.10 last week.
Q3 earnings out on June 7th, after the close.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 8%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.49 (was $.57, $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.15, even last week.
Our valuation has dropped 14% to $.49.
This one has cost us 3.5% off our total 2007 performance so far.
Lion announced some cost cutting last week–25% of staff and consolidating 2 offices. About time. Say they want to reach profitability ASAP.
We will give LION another quarter to see if they can turn things around.
Down 58%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter(s)).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.32, unchanged last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share–35% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
6% gain so far. BUY.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19,Valuation $3.25 (was $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.21, down $.04.
Trading at 36% of our valuation.
Announced a traing partnership last week. Yawn, need some performance here to get attention. Bought some more last week at $1.21.
Now up 2%. HOLD.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, NEW Valuation $1.29 (Was $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price was unchanged last week at $.38. Closed at $.35.
Volume was only 10,000 shares last week (again).
This is still trading at only 30% of our latest valuation, but until the VOIP business stops losing money, we are not buyers–yet/
Up 41% based on the ASK price