CSI Update May 2020, Free Blog

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 71 winners, 19 losers for a 79% win-rate with an average gain of 35.7%.

We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually until they are all sold.

SYNC which is merging with QUMU reported Q1 2020 earnings. They were not bad but the advertising portion of their revenue was affected by COVID.  Revenues were $20.6 million compared to $22.5 million last year (excluding the failed AT+T deal revenues) and they lost about $2.5 million (Non-GAAP). They had just under $9 million of cash. My valuation fell to $2.48 from $4.31. It is still trading at less than 50% of my valuation and the merger with QUMU along with their activist investor may make this a winner yet, but Q2 earnings will likely be bad due to the virus impact on their advertising revenues.

ATEC reported Q1 earnings. Revenues were up to $30.1 million from $25.5 million last year. They continue to lose a lot of money-about $10 million after to take out the litigation, failed EOS deal and stock comp expenses. With elective surgeries on hold for much of March through May, Q2 should be very ugly but I have been in this so long, I am not giving up yet. My valuation fell to $4.27 from $5.30

AVID reported Q1 earnings. Revenues were $86.5 million down from $103.3 million last year with all of the decline coming from their hardware products. Subscriptions and services revenues grew from $48.9 million to $51.7 million. My valuation fell to $11.77 from $18.71. They lost about $3.4 million compared to a $4.5 million profit last year (all Non-GAAP). Impactive Capital has been buying a load of AVID over the last several months and now own 11.6%.

May 2020 Legacy Positions:

SYNC

Share cost $2.56

Current Price $1.10

Lifetime Gain (Loss) (57%)

YTD Loss 28%

Current Valuation $2.48

Price to Value ratio 44%

Prior Valuation $4.31

 ATEC

Share cost $7.06

Current Price $4.45

Lifetime Loss 37%

YTD Loss 37%

Current Valuation $4.27

Price to Value ratio 104%

Prior Valuation $5.30

 AVID

Share cost $8.35

Current Price $7.06

Lifetime gain -15%

YTD Loss 18%

Current Valuation $11.77

Price to Value ratio 60%

Prior Valuation $18.71 

 

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