CSI Update March 2018 Free Blog

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 71 winners, 18 losers for an 80% win-rate with an average gain of 37%.

We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually until they are all sold.

In March:

AVID reported Q4 2017 earnings. Not bad, but certainly not exciting. Revenues were $107 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $15 million and adjusted Net income was about $6.5 million. Net debt increased by just under $1 million to $153 million. My valuation increased to $17.74 up from $16.95 last quarter. Based on Q1 and 2018 year guidance my valuations are $15.59 and $17.51 respectively. While this is still a great value, I am not seeing anything that will get anyone excited and move the stock price. They need to sell the company to realize value for shareholders. BUY.

SYNC announced Q4 earnings. The earnings were not bad, revenue of $46 million the highest in the company’s history, and adjusted EBITDA was $3.6 million compared to $1.2 million last year, but the outlook really stunk. They guided Q1 at revenues of $30-$32 million and adjusted EBITDA of $.5 to $1 million and guided for 2018 revenue of $150-$155 million and adjusted EBITDA of $7 to $10 million. What happened to the $100 million a year AT&T contract? Before AT&T they were doing about $127 million a year in revenue. So the AT&T contract is looking like only $25 million a year. They said that they are assuming AT&T will continue “ to prioritize the customer experience” and not revenue in 2018. So we may never see more revenue. Hopefully they are being conservative in their guidance after being burned so many times in the past. While my valuation for Q4 was $6.46 versus the prior quarter $5.81, based on their guidance my valuations would fall to $4.20 to $5.07 for Q1 and 2018 respectively. Not a great trend but still a good value. HOLD.

ATEC announced Q4 earnings. Commercial revenues were $20.9 million compared to $20.7 million last year. They lost about $2.7 million on an adjusted basis. Net debt looks like it came down to $44 million from $50 million last quarter. My valuation fell slightly to $5.78 from $5.93 last quarter. HOLD.

 March 2018 Legacy Positions:

                  Share      Current      Lifetime      Current      Price to     Prior

 Stock         Cost          Price          Gain            Value         Value      Value

SYNC           $2.56        $1.60           (38%)              $6.46         25%         $5.81

PRSS           $4.01         $1.35           (66%)             $7.77          17%        $5.37

ATEC          $7.06         $3.31            (55%)             $5.78         56%         $5.93

AVID           $8.35        $4.54            (46%)           $17.74         26%        $16.95

 

 

 

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