Cheap Stocks, 8/7/2015 Update

Another down week -1.7 and are now down 15.2% for the year. Meanwhile, the DOW was down 1.8% and the NASDAQ was down 1.7%. For the year the DOW is down 2.5% and NASDAQ is up 6.5%.

DEX, ATEC, SYNC and EXTR earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

CCUR 45%
SYNC 49%
CTIG 43%
PRSS 75%

ATEC, and SYNC, can still be bought. We are doubling up on ATEC

Last week we went 4 stock up, 8 down and 1 even. Since inception we are now 68 stocks up and 20 down for a 77.3% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions 60 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 35% average net gain per position.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

Avid Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ-AVID)-Recommended 1/20/2015)

Buy Price $14.00

Valuation $22.59 (Was $23.86, $28.10)

Closed down $.82 at $11.44

AVID announced a convertible bond offering in June and the stock tanked. We can’t figure it out. Proceeds to be used to pay for their recent acquisition, and a $20 million stock buyback.

AVID announced Q1 2015 earnings (quarter ended March 31, 2015) on May 7, 2015. Revenues were $120 million down from $135 million last year. They made a Non-GAAP profit of $.17 per share versus a $.38 profit last year. Our valuation slipped to $22.59 from $23.86 last quarter. They reaffirmed their 2015 guidance of $72-$78 million of adjusted EBITDA. We are keeping this as a BUY.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-announces-financial-results-first-201100764.html

Down 12% HOLD

Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ-ATEC)-Recommended 9/2/2014)

NEW Buy Price $.93 ($1.56 before doubling up on 8/10/2015 at $.66)

NEW Valuation $2.54 (Was $2.61, $3.11, $2.95, $3.00)

Closed down $.71 at $.66

ATEC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on August 4, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphatec-holdings-announces-second-quarter-200500460.html

No one liked them as the stock plummeted more than 50%. Revenues were $46.6 million ($50.2 million in constant currency) compared to $53.2 million last year. EBITDA was down 50% from $7.7 to $3.8 million. Our valuation came in at $2.54 compared to the previous $2.61. We are cutting ATEC to a HOLD until they can reverse the negative trends in revenue, gross margin and EBITDA.

After the reaction to the earnings we bought more and suggest doubling up here as the selling seems over done. This will bring our average Buy price down to $.93.

Down 58%

CafePress, Inc. Inc. (NASDAQ-PRSS)-Recommended 5/19/2014)

Buy Price $4.01 (Was $5.40 before adding $10,000 at $3.19 on 3/2/2015)

Valuation $9.09 (Was $12.50, $11.17, $12.51, $11.27)

Closed down $.10 at $4.26

Q2 2015 earnings due out Thursday, August 13, 2015 after the market close.

PRSS announced Q1 2015 (3/31/2015) earnings on 5/12/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cafepress-reports-first-quarter-2015-201500608.html

Again, this is a complex period for the company with the recent divestitures of two of their operating entities. We had estimated a valuation of $12.51 based on their reported annual results, but it came in at $9.09 a share—which is still more than double the current price. Cash from the divestitures ballooned the balance to $51.4 million or $3.21 a share. Operating performance fell short though. Revenues were $27.4 versus $30.9 million last year. On a Non-GAAP basis they lost$ 2 million versus a loss of $3.1 million last year from continuing operations. We continue to rate PRSS a BUY.

From their press release:

“We are taking proactive steps toward optimizing our business and operating as a leaner company focused on generating higher quality revenues. We believe that our data-driven approach to understanding opportunities with customers and partners will result in an increased ability to capture the very substantial opportunities within the personalized e-commerce market. We still have substantial work ahead of us as we continue to look for operational efficiencies while keeping a sharp focus on expense management. While these strategic moves may create near term pressure on revenue, we are extremely excited by the long-term prospects for CafePress,” concluded Mr. Durham.

UP 6% BUY

Extreme Networks, Inc. Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)

Buy Price $3.43 (was $3.95 before we added another $10,000)

NEW Valuation $9.47, (Was $6.99, $9.34, $8.24, $9.68, $8.52)

Closed up $.51 at $2.83

Extreme announced Q4 2015 (June 30, 2015) on August 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/extreme-networks-reports-fourth-quarter-110000404.html

Revenues came in at $149.9 compared to $155.3 and they made $.10 a share versus $.09 a share on a Non-GAAP basis. Our valuation came in at $9.47 a share versus $9.68 last year. Based on their guidance for next quarter we estimate our valuation at $7.45 compared to $8.24 for Q3 2014. Not heading in the right direction. This is a HOLD, hovering on a Sell. They need to cut expenses and/or sell the company.

Down 18%, HOLD

Synacor Inc. (NASDAQ-SYNC)-Recommended 12/17/2013)

Buy Price $2.56

Valuation $5.71 (Was $6.61, $5.58, $5.21, $5.44, $6.67, $6.39)’

Closed up $.07 at $1.70

SYNC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on 8/4/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-gains-ebitda-momentum-revenue-200100723.html

Revenues were $24.7 million up slightly from $24.2 million the prior year. They had a Non-GAAP loss of about $.3 million compared to a loss of $1 million last year. SYNC’s valuation fell from last quarter to $5.29, but was a tad higher than last years $5.21. SYNC is trading at 30% of our valuation.

Down 34%. BUY

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-DXM)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price 6.46 ( Was $15.14 before adding $10,000 on 3/30/2015)

Valuation $21.00 (Was $31.00, $31.00, $34.00, $37.98, $34.36, $31.50, $24.25)

Closed down $.10 at $.26

Q2, 2015 earnings were announced August 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dex-media-announces-second-quarter-110000263.html

Revenues were $387 million, down from $474 million last year and down from $406 million last quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $159 million up from $143 million last quarter and down from $176 million last year. Overall not a great quarter. For the year they are guiding to revenue of about $1.5 billion and $525 million of EBITDA. In their original projection for 2015 they were looking at revenue of $2.077 billion and EBITDA of $782 million. Clearly they are not making their projections. Net debt was $2.144 (their original projection was to end 2015 with $2.004 billion of debt—a goal they will likely make. Based on this performance we have lowered our valuation to $4.71 a share. DEXM is a HOLD

DEX announced a major restructuring on December 11, 2014. They expect to incur

$70-$100 million of expenses to achieve $150 million of ongoing expense savings with $110 million of that coming in 2015. They expect to begin deleveraging their balance sheet (meaning Net Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio) in 2016. No question that’s what they need to do.

Down 96% HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)

Valuation $2.20 (Was $1.83, $2.83, $2.85, $3.39, $3.25, $3.42, $4.64, $4.86, $4.00)

Closed up $.01 at $.55

DAEG announced Q4 2015 earnings (quarter ended April 30, 2015) on 7/28/2015. Revenues were $6.1 million down from $7.4 million last year but up from $5.7 million last quarter. They lost $.03 per share on a GAAP basis compared to income of $.01 last year. On a Non-GAAP basis they lost $65,000 versus a profit of $1,087,000 last year. Our valuation rose to $2.20 up from $1.83 last quarter on lower net debt ($6.4 million), higher sales and lower losses.

With the discontinuance of their eDiscovery business, Daegis is now a pure play enterprise software company and is trading at only 30% of our valuation. We are changing to a cautious BUY.

.Down 50%, HOLD

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $3.95 ($ 5.85, $6.20 before 12/15/2014 and 2/14/2014 $10,000 adders)

Valuation $5.85 (Was $7.55, $8.75, $8.80, $1.83, $9.15, $10.95, $11.75, $12.80, $11.20)

Closed down $.20 at $1.34

BLIN announced Q2 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on May 14, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bridgeline-digital-announces-financial-results-202247641.html

Another very disappointing quarter. Revenues fell to $4.8 million from $5.3 million last year. They lost $2.1 million compared to $2.3 million last year, showing the improvement in spending as a result of their cost curtailment efforts. On a Non-GAAP basis they lost $1.2 million versus $1.3 million last year. Our valuation fell to $5.85 (adjusted for the 5 for 1 split in May 2015, down from $7.53 last quarter and $8.82 last year.

Down 66%, HOLD

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37

Valuation $5.78 (Was $5.43, $6.55, $6.88, $6.12, $5.99, $5.32, $6.81, $6.28, $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)

Closed down $.18 at $3.49

TSYS announced Q2 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on 7/30/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/telecommunication-systems-reports-second-quarter-200500282.html

Revenues were $87.9 million, up from $81.9 million last year and adjusted EPS was $.05 compared to $.04 last year. Overall an OK quarter-again. Our valuation was $5.78 down from $6.12 last year and up from $5.43 last quarter. TSYS is trading at 64% of our valuation.

We are now waiting on the outcome of their “strategic alternatives” investigation with Lazard. Shares closed at $3.70 on 7/30/2015. This is still a HOLD. We are up 170% on TSYS

UP 155%, HOLD

MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)-Recommended 10//10/2011

Valuation $23.19 (Was $24.44, $25.52, $24.58, $23.19, $25.50, $28.98, $24.01 $23.06, $27.15, $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)

Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)

Closed at $11.82 down $.17

Q2 2015 earnings due out Monday, August 10, 2015 after the market close.

Raging Capital added 601,000 shares in June bringing their holdings to 2,137,000 or 30.6% of the company.

MRVC announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on May 7, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mrv-reports-first-quarter-2015-200100767.html

Revenues were $38.8 million down from $42.3 million last year. They stated that revenues would have been flat, but that foreign currency impacts caused the decline.

They lost $.5 million versus a $3.4 million loss last year. Net cash per share fell from last quarters $2.34 to $1.73. Our valuation was $23.19 down from $24.44 last quarter. They spent $3.6 million buying 357,000 shares in their share buyback program. Again, not sure this is the best use of their cash in that it just makes their loss per share bigger. They reported a per share loss of $.15 this quarter versus a loss of $.58 last year.

This is still a HOLD as sales are at best flat on a constant exchange rate basis and not growing. They did substantially reduce their loss this quarter, but not enough to get us to buy more.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mrv-reports-first-quarter-2015-200100767.html

Up 37% HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)

Valuation $16.38 (was $13.07, $14.80, $17.72, $15.01, $15.10, $14.55, $14.77, $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)

Closed down $.08 at $6.59 (including $1.20 of dividends)

Pays $.48 annual dividend

CCUR announced Q3 2015 (December 31, 2014) earnings on April 28,2015. Revenues were $17.1 million, down 7% from $18.3 million last year but up from $16 million last quarter. They made $.780,000 profit versus a loss of $.6 million last quarter and a $1.1 million profit last year. Gross margin held steady at 59%. Our valuation jumped back up to $16.38 from $13.07 last quarter. Cash per share rose to $2.93 or 49% of the market cap. We will keep a HOLD on CCUR until we see what the new CEO can do and they get revenue growth back. We continue to collect the 7% dividend.

UP 44%, HOLD

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),

Valuation $6.66 (was $6.47, $5.96, $6.02, $5.67, $5.57, $5.70, $6.71, $6.41, $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)

Closed at $3.18, unchanged.

Wynnefield continued their selling outing a cap on ARI’s stock price. They now own 693,000 shares down from 992,000. They are now at 4.1%.

Q3 2015 were announced on June 11, 2015. Pretty good. Revenues were $10.3 million, up 26% from last year and they made $.02 a share compared to $.01 last year. Our valuation rose to $6.66 a share.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ari-network-services-inc-announces-200100623.html

In addition to the 1.5 million share offering Wynnefield Capital has been selling shares-about 250,000 from 3/31/2015 to 5/12/2015 at prices from $3.20 to $3.38. They still have 992,000 shares or 6.9% of ARI. Assuming they are getting out, this will keep pressure on the price for a while.

ARI announced on May 7, 2015 that they had priced a 1.53 million share offering for expected net proceeds of about $4.7 million which they will use to pay off the $1.75 of debt they incurred on their recent acquisition of TASCO and for future acquisitions.

They are doing a good job positioning the company to be acquired. Hopefully this will soon happen with a $5+ price like we got for XRS in September 2014.

UP 97%, HOLD, Still a large valuation gap here and the Company is executing well.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask,

Valuation $1.21 (Was $1.39, $1.34, $1.22, $.99, $1.02, $1.05, $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23, $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)

Ask price $.34 closed at $.31

CTIG announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on 5/14/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cti-group-reports-2015-first-203932720.html

After the huge Q4 2014 quarter this quarter’s results were more in-line with their previous run-rate. Revenues were $4.1 million, compared to $3.95 million in 2014. They also made $10,000 for the quarter.

Our valuation fell a bit to $1.21 a share, down from $1.39 last quarter, but up 20% from $.99 last year. We will continue to HOLD CTIG.

Still way undervalued, but no light as to when or how this will ever be properly valued.

John Birbeck announced his departure in October 2014. He was one of the group trying to take CTIG private for $.40 a share. Birbeck will remain a Director of the company. He owns about 7% of CTIG (about 2.3 million shares).

They need to get an investment banker and sell the company. Probably get at least $.75 a share for it from someone.

UP 26%. HOLD

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