CCUR and TSYS earning last week.
Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.
Check this list:
Last week we went 7 stocks up, and 6 down. Since inception we are now 67 stocks up and 16 down for a 80.7% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).
Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2009-DTLK +33% (fourth trip on this)
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)
2010-CHRD +37% Buyout (2 weeks after we recommended it)
2010-HPOL +27% (third trip)
2010-CAW EVEN (excluding 2.5 years of dividends)
2011-PRM +56% Buyout (1 week after we recommended it)
2012-LTUS -98% No more Chinese stocks for us
2012-AEZS -63% a bad speculation.
2012-RIMG -46% (including dividends)
2012-HPOL +34% (4th trip)
2012-MEDW +133% (Buyout 1 week AFTER we sold this)
2012-MOTR -29% (lost biggest customer contract)
2013-INUV -83% Held this since 2007. Failed business model.
Buy Price $2.56
Closed down $.17 at $2.36
Down 8% BUY
Buy Price $15.14
Valuation $31.50 ( Was $24.25)
Closed down $.01 at $6.06
Earnings announced on November 5, 2013. Oiy. Just trying to figure out how they did with all the purchase accounting and pro-forma adjustments is a nightmare. Revenues were $567 million on a pro-forma basis and EBITDA was $220 million. Using our 3.5X EBITDA less net debt gives us a valuation of $31.50. As far as we can see they are still on track with their 12/6/2012 pre-merger projections, other than digital sales did not grow as predicted. They forecast $2.33 billion in revenue, $2.681 billion in net debt and $865 million of adjusted EBITDA for 2013. For the 9 months ended September they did $1.686 billion in revenue, net debt was $2.617 and they reported $674 million in adjusted EBITDA. If they repeat the current quarter they will miss revenues by $100 million but still meet their EBITDA and net debt goals.. Obviously no one else sees it this way as the stock cratered. We will continue to hold as we have seen other value plays like Pitney Bowes ($11 to $24) and Lexmark ($21 to $35) come back from panic situations.
We will not double up here as there really is a lot of debt and this will need a couple of more quarters of performance before it is proven they can handle the debt and survive for the long term.
Paulson & Co, filed a Form 13D on 5/10/2013 disclosing a 10.9% stake. They have held this stake since before the bankruptcy and merger. Then on May 14th, they filed a 13D/A disclosing another 350,000 share buy at prices up to $17.07 bringing their stake to 13%.
Down 60% HOLD
Buy Price $1.50
Valuation $6.71 ( Was $6.16, $6.79, $6.50)
Closed up $.02 at $2.67
Earnings announced on November 7, 2013. About the same. Revenue was $14.1 million compared to $15 million last year and they made a profit of $82,000 versus a loss of $221,000 last year. From their press release:
“Fiscal 2014 will be a year of significant transition for the Company as we begin the migration of our legacy customers to the XRS mobile solution. As we transition from our legacy hardware-based solutions to our no upfront cost mobile solutions, we expect soft overall revenue. We expect accelerating mobile revenue growth with consistent margins and will continue to invest in the further development of the XRS mobile solution with key integrations to strategic third-party providers thereby creating a whole product that will position us to capitalize on this expanding market.”
Our valuation increased to $6.71 per share.
UP 78%, HOLD
Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)
Valuation $3.19 (Was $3.42, $4.64, $4.86, $4.00)
Closed up $.06 at $1.24
Earnings were reported on 12/3/2013. On the surface not so good. Sales fell to $7.7 million from $10.3 million and adjusted EBITDA fell to $755,000 from $2.1 million last year. Net debt increased a bit to $11.6 million from $11 million last quarter, but is down about $3 million from last year. We read the earnings transcript and actually thought this looks like a good bet. That and the Pessin filing, and the 1.2 million shares that traded on Friday. Our valuation continued down to $3.19 per share-still a lot higher than the current trading price. We will probably buy more of this personally next week.
Norm Pessin filed a 13D on November 27, 2013 disclosing a 6.2% stake and upped it to 12.2% in December 2013. Good news that someone else sees the value here.
Kurt Jensen a 10% owner continues to sell stock at almost any price, putting a lid on DAEG. He still has 1.6 million shares, so this could take a while.
Looks like BlueLine Partners (a “strategic opportunities fund”) have shaken up Daegis management in January with the ouster or the CEO and CFO. The interim CEO and Chairman of the Board is a BlueLine founder. Its feeling like they are not happy with the current stock price for sure.
Up 14%, BUY
Buy Price $1.24
Valuation $1.83 (Was $1.61, $2.19, $2.35, $2.56, $2.24)
Closed up $.08 at $1.30
Earnings announced on December 10, 2013. Revenues were $6.7 million the same as last year. First quarter in a while that revenues didn’t decline due to the run-off of their legacy products. Core products revenue was up 30%, while legacy business was down 61% to $1.4 million. They reported a $705,000 loss for the quarter.
For FY 2014 they are projecting revenue of $28 million and positive adjusted EBITDA (compared to a loss of $700,000 this year). Our valuation rose to $1.83 a share.
BLIN raised $2 million in October 2013 by selling 10% secured convertible notes. The conversion price is $1.30. Let’s hope they convert soon.
We are changing this to a Buy as we expect to start seeing some positive revenue comparisons in 2014.
UP 5%, BUY
Buy Price- $1.37
NEW Valuation $5.32 (Was $6.81, $6.28, $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)
Closed down $.12 at $2.27
Earnings announced on January 39, 2014. Hmmm. Revenues were down to $79 million from $133 million last year. “Adjusted net income” was $.02 a share compared to $.20 last year. Gross margin was up to 40% from 37% last quarter and 31% last year. Our valuation fell to $5.32, still more than double the current price. Lower margin government revenues were down over 50%.
Still not a good quarter.
UP 66%, HOLD
Buy Price $7.17 ( Was $7.94 before another $10,000 added at $6.53)
Valuation $26.12 (Was $27.58, $28.24, $28.33, $29.04, $29.59, $29.58, $29.21)
Closed up $.56 at $7.26
Buyout rumors last week led to a 1.5 million share trading day on Wednesday and a modest spike in the price. Since they are for sale, there may be fire here.
Earnings announced on November 6th. Not great. Sales fell to $113.7 from $121.5 last year, and they lost $3.3 million (excluding a $2 million write-off. Our valuation fell a bit to $26.12. The big news to us was that they announced they are looking at “strategic alternatives” which includes the sale of the company. This could result in a number of things happening, including nothing, but it is a good sign that they understand that they get no respect in the market. They said they would slightly miss their full year 2013 sales guidance from $464-$471 million and come in at the middle of their previous EBITDA guidance of $76-$80 million.
Penn Capital Mgmt. filed a 13G in late February 2013 disclosing a 5.55% stake.
$78 million of EBITDA, $.25 a share in net cash and a $185 market cap. Cheap.
UP 1%, BUY
Valuation $28.98 (Was $24.01 $23.06, $27.15, $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)
Closed at $14.00 up $.35
Earnings announced on 11/12/2013.
Revenues were up 11% to $38.4 million and their loss declined to $146,000 from $1,320,000 last year. Net cash per share was $3.54 and our valuation jumped to $28.98 a share. They say they are continuing to invest in the business and that these should become apparent in 2014. Patience.
UP 63% BUY
Valuation $12.30 (Was $11.86, $8.24, $13.05, $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed down $.05 at $4.69
Ariel Investments filed a 13G on January 10, 2014 disclosing a 10.1% stake in Sigma.
The CEO bought 343,000 shares back from Potomac Capital in December 2013 leaving Potomac with only 465,000 shares of SIGM. The interesting part was that the CEO paid $5.50 a share or about $1 over its trading price. Either a great expression of confidence in SIGM or a small price to pay to get rid of an activist investor. Since we don’t know which it is, or both we will stay a hold on this, even though our gut says to buy.
Earnings announced on December 11th. They continue to do what they say they are going to do. Revenues were $54.4 million, net cash was $88.1 million or $2.55 per share and our valuation rose a bit to $12.39. They reported Non-GAAP income of $3.3 million or $.10 a share.
But, they surprised Wall Street with Q4 guidance of revenues of $40-44 million and essentially breakeven results. They also announced a $20 million share repurchased program—which didn’t impress anyone. With the stock off 16% last week and near its 5 years lows now would be time to buy some I guess. This will only help if they cn be profitable going forward.
Our valuation will fall to about $11 based on their guidance, which compared to $8.24 in their year ago fourth quarter. At this price and valuation we are still at a hold on SIGM.
Down 45%, HOLD
Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
NEW Valuation $15.10 (was $14.55, $14.77, $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed up $.25 at $8.96 (including dividends)
Pays $.48 annual dividend.
Earnings announced on January 28,2014. Good again. Revenues increased 7.5% to $17.8 million and they made $.12 a share compared to $.08 last year. Cash was $25.1 million or about $2.78 a share and our valuation rose to $15.10 a share up from $14.33 a share last year.
We have collected $.48 in dividends so far (excluding the $.50 special dividend which reduced our basis).
UP 96%, HOLD
Buy Price- $1.45 per ADS (Was $1.68 before double up)
Valuation $3.18-(Was $3.06, $3.02, $4.14, $3.65, $3.41, $5.52, $5.00, $5.39, $5.33, $5.61, $5.73, $4.38, $4.44, $5.15)
Closed at $1.00 down $.08.
Earnings announced on November 29th for the quarter ended September 30, 2013. Revenues were $12.1 million versus $14 million last year and $11.4 million last quarter and they lost $1.7 million. Net cash rose to $46.7 from $45.2 million or $1.69 per share. Our valuation rose a tad to $3.18 per share.
Lots of product introduction updates in their press release, but not much has been translating to the financials. Looks like they lost their licensee in China and are looking for a new one and they canceled the Korean version of Ragnarok 2, although the English version is still available. Revenues were up a bit as was cash, but unless the company decides to distribute some of that excess cash (like $1.00 a share) this is going to be a long wait.
Down 31%, BUY
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $6.71 (was $6.41, $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $3.39, up $.16
Q1 earnings announced 12/16/2013. Revenues were up 37% to $8.16 million from $5.942 million last year, gross margin was 81% and they made $25,000 compared to $113,000 last year. Recurring revenues were 95% of total revenues. They say in the press release that they are investing more in sales and marketing this year, but still expect to achieve higher EBITDA than last year. Our valuation fell however to $5.70 a share mostly due to 13.8 versus 8.2 million shares outstanding. Still trading at only 59% of our valuation.
ARI announced another acquisition in November 2013. No details, but a good sign that they are really trying to accelerate their growth.
Wynnefield partners bought another 100,000 shares at $2.90 in the first week of July 2013 raising their stake to over 10%.
If ARI can grow continue to grow their revenue and profits over the next couple of quarters, we think the stock price could approach our valuation.
UP 110%, HOLD, Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $1.02 (Was $1.05, $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23, $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.31 closed at $.30
Some news—finally. Fairford/Birbeck upped their non-binding offer to $.40 a share. No indication as to whether the Board will accept it or any other details. Still a lowball offer but one which we would take after holding this for almost 8 years. SELL.
10Q filed on 11/14/2013. Not even a press release. Revenues were $3.6 million, down from $3.9 million last year. They lost $394,000 compared to net income of $34,000 last year. Our valuation fell to $1.02 a share still more than double the management buyout price. Cash per share fell to a measly $.02.
CTIG announced in June 2013 that they had hired Duff and Phelps as their independent financial advisor. Guess the Board decided they need to get a fairness opinion to keep down the damages on the lawsuit.
Birbeck and Fairford Holdings made a non-binding offer to buy CTIG in March 2013 for $.29 a share. The company formed a special committee to evaluate the offer. Hopefully they will find somebody else who will pay fair value—or at least close to it.