We were up .7% last week and are now up 31.7% for the year, just about double NASDAQ.
After the close on Friday MOTR announced that AT+T (40% of their business) canceled their contract with them. The stock plunged in afterhours to about $.39. Ugg. We would sell on Monday. This will wipe out our gain this week and a little more. We had over 100,000 shares of MOTR personally.
Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.
Check this list:
The DOW was up .4% last week, NASDAQ was up 1.7% and the Russell 3000 was up 1.4%.
ARI and MGCD earnings last week.
DAEG, BLIN, MRVC, AVNW, GRVY, EXTR, CBEY, and MOTR are our favorites.
For the year, the DOW is up 8%, NASDAQ is up 16%, and the Russell 3000 is up 14.2%
Last week we went 13 stocks up and 5 down. Since inception we are now 62 stocks up and 15 down for an 80.5% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).
Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2009-DTLK +33% (fourth trip on this)
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)
2010-CHRD +37% Buyout (2 weeks after we recommended it)
2010-CAW EVEN (excluding 2.5 years of dividends)
2011-PRM +56% Buyout (1 week after we recommended it)
2012-RIMG -46% (including dividends)
2012-MEDW +133% (Buyout 1 week AFTER we sold this)
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
For the 59 stocks that we closed out since 2006 (50 were winners) the average net gain was 35%.
Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)
Buy Price $1.20
Closed up $.06 at $1.02
Down 15%, BUY
Motricity Inc. (NASDAQ-MOTR)-Recommended 11/2/2012)
Buy Price $.62
Closed down $.06 at $.66
Sell at $.40 for a loss of 35%.
Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)
Buy Price $1.24
Valuation $2.56 (Was $2.24)
Closed unchanged at $1.46
Earnings announced in December. Revenues were $6.7 million up from $6.6 million last year, but iAPPS revenue was up 40% and recurring revenue was up 25% as their legacy business continues to decline. They lost $40 thousand on a GAAP basis and made $268 thousand, or $.02 on a Non-GAAP basis. Net cash improved to negative $.18 from negative $.20 last quarter. Our valuation moved up to $2.56 per share. Guidance for next year is revenue of $29 million, which includes 40% growth in iAPPS revenue and positive Non-GAAP income. We see our valuation soaring to over $3.25 if they can make their numbers next year.
Up 18%, BUY
Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)
Buy Price- $1.37
Valuation $6.72 (Was $5.49)
Closed up $.19 at $2.55
TSYS announced some kind of patent deal last week but no financial details, so we don’t know what to make of it yet.
TSYS announced in November it was one of 20 companies selected to participate in a 5 year, $10 billion contract with the U.S. government.
Earnings announced in October. They were very good. Revenue was up a massive 24% to $140 million and they made $.07 per share. Our valuation rose to $6.72 per share.
Carlo Cannell, an activist investor filled a 13D in September pointing out how undervalued TSYS is and urged them to put themselves on the block. He points to a valuation done on the company as of August 29th of $7.40 to $11.81 a share. Even the low point here is higher than our valuation.
TSYS announced in September it was selected as part of a group of 8 companies to participate in a $2.6 million government contract.
Up 86%, HOLD
Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ-AVNW)-Recommended 2/27/2012)
Buy Price- $2.62
Valuation $9.03 (Was $9.37, $8.85, $8.31)
Closed up $.31 at $3.23
Earnings announced in November. Not bad. Sales were up 3% to $115 million and the made $.05 per share (non-GAAP). Cash per share fell to $1.24 due to the timing of collecting some large receivables (collected in October). Our valuation fell a bit to $9.03 per share.
Next quarter they are projecting $115-$120 million in sales and that they will again be profitable on a non-GAAP basis and that cash will return to normal levels (about $96 million or so).
Up 23%, BUY
CBeyond Inc. (NASDAQ-CBEY)-Recommended 2/28/2012)
Buy Price $7.17 ( Was $7.94 before another $10,000 added at $6.53)
Valuation $29.04 (Was $29.59, $29.58, $29.21)
Closed up $1.05 at $9.14
Earnings announced in November. Not bad. Sales were off $1 million to $121 million and they made $.06 a share compared to a $.04 loss last year. They raised their 2012 guidance a bit and gave 2013 guidance that was tepid at best.
“Management expects revenue to be close to 2012 levels with increasing growth in the latter part of the year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline in 2013 due to increased levels of SG&A expense primarily associated with the growing sales force needed to support future levels of revenue growth. With respect to cash capital expenditures, management expects a slightly higher level relative to 2012. As a result, management expects a reduced level of free cash flow when compared with 2012. However, management expects to continue its focus on delivering significant levels of positive free cash flow in 2013 and future years.”
$90 million of EBITDA, no net debt and a $250 market cap. Cheap.
Our valuation fell a tad to $29.04, still way more than the stock is selling for today.
Up 28%, BUY
MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)
Valuation $1.59 (Was $1.73, $1.43, $2.06, $2.16 (after $.475 and $.30 special dividends), $2.62, $2.79)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $.50 ($1.27 before special dividends)
Closed at $.55 unchanged.
Raging Capital bought another 1.6 million shares in the first week of December at $.54 bringing their holdings to 30.7 million shares or 20.1% of the company.
MRV announced a $.07 special dividend, a $10 million share buyback and a reverse 1 for 20 stock split. The share price increased the $.07 out of the gate, but no big gains. A $10 stock price will pave the way for relisting on a major exchange and allow institutions to invest. We think this is good news.
Earnings announced in November. Not bad. Revenues fell a bit to $51 million but it appears that the revenue shortfall was in the divisions that were sold in October. Hard to tell from their press release or 10Q what the real results were excluding the sold divisions so we are still estimating our valuation which dropped to $1.59 per share. Looks like they broke even for the quarter after excluding an asset impairment write-off.
MRV closed the sale or their two remaining for-sale subsidiaries in October. Proceeds look to be about $25 million. We estimate MRV will have about $.44 a share of net cash after these sales. This is about 80% of their market cap and brings our estimated valuation to $1.55 a share.
MRVC bought back 5.8 million shares from T-2 at $.48 a share in August.
Still trading at less than ½ our valuation.
Up 9%- BUY
Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)
Valuation $13.05 (Was $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed up $.16 at $5.65
Earnings announced in November. Hmmmm. Sales fell $4 million to $64 million (but right on guidance) and they lost $39 million. But wait, it was “only” $9 million on a non-GAAP basis. The CEO swears that they will get to profitability in Q1, 2014 (next quarter is Q4, 2013). We’ll see. Cash fell a bit to $97 million or $2.91 a share and our valuation fell to $11.39. Have to give this another quarter or two I guess.
SIGM announced a big restructuring plan in November. The goal is to cut expenses by $45 million for their FY 2014 which starts in 4 months (1/29/2013). Headcount and expense cuts are the bulk of the savings. They say this will get them to Non-GAAP profitability at a $56 million a quarter run rate. They will take a $1 million charge in Q3. The also said “Sigma is also investigating strategic alternatives for several research and development programs”. Not sure exactly what this means but it sounds like it will be a positive.
Down 34%, HOLD
Mitel Networks (NASDAQ-MITL)-Recommended 7/6/2011)
Buy Price- $3.04( Was $3.36 before $10,000 added, $3.95 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $13.10 (Was $10.92, $13.92, $12.81, $15.28, $14.04, $10.39)
Closed up $.11 at $3.29
Earnings announced in December. Pretty good. Revenues were down 6% to $145.5 million, gross margins increased from 53% to 56.2% and adjusted EBITDA increased 17% from $21.4 million to $24.1 million. Our valuation rose to $13.10. Non-GAAP net income rose to $14.2 million from $12.6 million. Non-GAAP net income was $.25 a share and was $.33 for the six months.
The discount to our valuation is huge.
Up 8%, BUY
Lexmark International (NYSE-LXK)-Recommended 5/24/2011)
Valuation $60.41 (Was $70.28, $62.59, $63.94, $63.84, $79.12, $63.99)
Closed up $.34 at $23.52
We have also collected $1.40 a share in dividends here.
LXK now pays a $1.20 annual dividend.
Earning announced in October. Revenues were down about 10% to $921 million (non-GAAP) and they earned $65 million versus $74 million last year (again, non-GAAP). Earnings were apparently better than analyst expectations. Our valuation fell to $60.41 still almost triple the current trading price. Net cash fell to $3.16 per share as they paid their $.30 dividend and bought back 5.8 million shares for $120 million.
LXK announced in September that it was getting out of the inkjet printer business and cutting 1,700 employees. There was also speculation that they would get bought out.
They reiterated their intent to return over 50% of their free cash flow to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases
Down 18%, HOLD
Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)
Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
Valuation $15.37 (was $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed up $.46 at $5.50
Pays $.24 annual dividend.
CCUR went ex-dividend last week for their $.50 special dividend.
We have collected $.12 in dividends so far.
Earnings announced in November. Revenues were up 16% from $12.9 million to $15 million and they made a profit of $.325 million versus a loss of $2.6 million last year. Net cash per share was $3.29 and our valuation jumped to $15.37 a share.
Singer/Miller duo own 12.1% of CCUR.
Up 18%, BUY
Astex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Was SuperGen Inc.) (NASDAQ-ASTX)-Recommended 10/4/2010)
Buy Price-$2.31 (was $2.09 before adding $10,000)
Valuation $3.20 (was $3.16, $3.44, $3.42, $3.22, $3.11, $5.21, $4.89, $4.37, $3.48)
Closed down $.05 at $2.72
Earnings announced in October. Revenues were $17.2 million compared to $16.9 million last year. They lost $1.8 million after some special charges. Cash was $130 million or $1.40 per share. Based on the current quarter, our valuation rose slightly to $3.20 per share. Based on their 12 month guidance our valuation looks like $3.64 with a $4 million profit. They are projecting $60 million in product revenue next year and they do not project milestone/development revenues. They are projecting a cash loss of maybe $18 million next year—again without any milestone or development revenue.
So we have a company losing maybe $5 million in cash a year, or 25 years of cash, about $80 million in revenues and a huge drug pipeline. Any good news on the clinical trials front ought to set this stock on fire.
It is not easy to find a small drug company, with substantial revenues, that has a pile of cash, is not losing a ton of money and is trading at even close to our valuation.
There are $2 BILLION of potential milestone payments down the road.
Up 18%, HOLD
Extreme Networks (EXTR-Recommended 3/22/2010)
Buy Price-$3.18 (Was $3.04 before adding another $10,000)
Valuation-$6.97 (was $7.46, $6.31, $7.01, $6.72, $6.45, $5.67, $7.36, $7.23, $7.31, $6.82, $6.81)
Closed at $3.65 down $.04
Earnings announced in October. Revenues were $76.1 million down 13% from last year. They made $.04 per share on a non-GAAP basis. Cash rose to $202 million or $2.12 per share. So we are getting a $300 million in sales company that is profitable for about $1.10 per share. Crazy. Our valuation fell from last quarter to $6.97-still more than double the current price.
They are projecting next quarter at sales of $78-$85 million and EPS of $.04 to $.07 (non-GAAP).
Starboard owns 9.7%, Soros 8.8% and Blackrock owns 5.5% of EXTR.
Up 15%, BUY
Gravity Company Ltd. (GRVY-Recommended 1/18/2010)
Buy Price- $1.45 per ADS (Was $1.68 before double up)
Valuation $3.65-(Was $3.41, $5.52, $5.00, $5.39, $5.33, $5.61, $5.73, $4.38, $4.44, $5.15)
Closed up $.01 at $1.32
Earnings announced in November. Not bad and better than Q2. Revenues were $12.8 million and they lost about $.2 million (excluding a $2.5 million impairment charge). Cash rose to $51 million or $1.83 per share. Our valuation rose to $3.65 per share.
From their press release:
“Gravity is planning to release Ragnarok Online II in North America and the Philippines in the first half of 2013 after its launch in Singapore and Malaysia in December 2012.
Steal Fighter to be launched in Korea in the first quarter of 2013
Gravity will launch Steal Fighter, an action real-time strategy role playing game, in Korea in the first quarter of 2013. Gravity entered into a license agreement with L-Time Games Co., Ltd., the developer of Steal Fighter, to publish the game in Korea in April 2012 and conducted closed beta testing in September 2012. The Company intends to launch the game in the overseas markets after its launch in Korea.
Ragnarok Online — Uprising: Valkyrie to be launched in China and Taiwan
Ragnarok Online — Uprising: Valkyrie, a mobile massively multiplayer online role playing game, will be released in China and Taiwan by the end of 2012. Gravity has entered into license agreements with local licensees in each market and the game will be available on iOS and Android platform. Ragnarok Online — Uprising: Valkyrie hits more than 600,000 cumulative downloads in Korea since its launch in May 2012.”
It looks like there are lots of good things ahead.
Now trading at way below cash value again.
Down 9%, BUY
Inuvo (INUV (was-VTRO, MIVA)-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $8.15 (Was $11.90 before adding another $20,000, $13.10 before another $10,000 and was $15.00 before double up),
Valuation $3.82 (was $3.11, $1.84, $8.04, $10.91, $12.42, $14.23, $14.76, $12.40, $12.55, $10.85, $8.25, $9.45, $28.05, $32.10, $34.20, $37.90, $37.95)
Closed at $1.10 down $.18
Earning reported in November. Revenues rose 89% to $15.5 million and they lost $1.3 million ($.06 per share). Adjusted EBITDA was $1 million compared to $.1 million last year. Not a great showing. Our valuation rose to $3.82 a share but we are not that impressed. We will hold this a while longer.
Down 79% HOLD
Medical Graphics Corporation (Was ANGN-Recommended 8/28/2008)
Buy Price-$3.82 (was $5.15 before $10,000 added)
NEW Valuation $15.03 (was $12.99, $11.95, $13.36 $15.90, $13.13, $13.19, $13.60, $15.00, $13.06, $12.15, $11.29, $11.73, $11.47, $11.16, $9.53, $13.30, $13.03)
Closed up $.47 at $5.97
Earnings announced last week. Sales were up 4% to $8.232 million and they broke even on an operating basis compared to a profit of $.585 million last year. Net cash was $2.46 per share and our valuation was $15.03 down from $15.90 last year. With the gain from the sale of New Leaf MGCD reported earnings of $.20 a share.
If this company could just show a bit of growth I think we would see $10 in short order—if.
While ANGN is still trading at less than ½ our valuation, we are switching to a HOLD until we gets some results or news that improves the prospects here.
Up 56%, HOLD
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks.
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
NEW Valuation $5.97 (was $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.56 up $.01
Earnings announced last week. They were good. Revenues were up 10% to $5.9 million and they made $300,000 or $.01 per share down from $.03 last year. Gross margins rose 2% to 76.3%. Our valuation fell by a bit less than the cost of their August acquisition of Ready2Ride, to $5.97 a share.
ARIS closed the purchase of “Fifty Below”. In their press release they even said it was a “game changer” which is what we said earlier.
Earlier in November ARIS announced that it was buying the retail assets of “Fifty Below Sales and Marketing” for about $5 million out of bankruptcy.
The retail division of 50 Below is a leading provider of eCommerce websites in the powersports, automotive tire & wheel aftermarket, medical equipment and pool and spa industries. Fifty Below had about $10 million in revenue for the first 9 months of 2012 and has over 3,500 dealer websites. At less than 50% of revenues the deal looks good. The financing will not be cheap on the $3.5 million it is borrowing from a private investor—14% interest rate and 400,000 shares of ARI stock. Despite this cost, the deal should add over 50% to ARI’s sales and hopefully at least that much to its income. There was no disclosure of projected profits on this deal.
Douglas Singer a private investor filed a Form 13D/A in October disclosing he sold about 90,000 shares at prices of $1.00 to $1.16 from 9/6/2012 to October 12, 2012. He still owns 510,000 shares or 6.3%.
Now down 3%, BUY, Still a Huge valuation gap here.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $1.17 (Was $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23, $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.28 closed at $.26
No reason that we can see for the 30% haircut last week.
John Birbeck the CEO bought another 2,500 shares at $.385 on 12/6/2012 and now owns 747,000 shares.
Earning announced in November. The good news was that they were again profitable, making $.01 versus losing $.01 last year. However revenue fell 10% from $4.4 million to $4 million. Net cash fell to $.09 per share and our valuation fell to $1.17.
CTI recently announced that it had partnered with BroadSoft (NASDQ-BSFT) to sell CTI’s Call Center Express solution. Very reputable company to partner with.
Five profitable quarters in a row. .
Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Up 4%. HOLD