Cheap Stocks, 11-6-2009 Update

We recouped a good chunk of our loss last week, coming back with a 7% gain.

Now up 69.4% this year.

IPASS, MGIC and MEDW earnings last week.

IPAS, MEDW, DWCH, MGIC and CAW still are our favorites

The DOW was up 3.2%, NASDAQ was up 3.3% and the S+P 500 was up 3.2%. For the year the DOW is up 14.2%. NASDAQ is up 34% and the S+P 500 is up 18.4%. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are up 20-21% this year.

Last week we went 9 stocks up, 5 down and 2 even. Since inception we are now 35stocks up and 15 down (we are trying hard to get to our 80% winner target) .

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2008-PARL +56%
2009-MBRK +67%
2009-SNWL +14%
2009-CYNO +25%
2009-DTLK +33%
2009-NED +46%
2009-CUTR +13%
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-RNWK +36%
2009-OPK +116%
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 34 stocks that we closed out since 2006 the average net gain was 27%.

AEterna Zentaris (AEZS-Recommended 6/20/2009)
Buy price $1.42 (was $1.78 before adding another $10,000, $1.82 before double up)
Valuation –Speculation.
Closed up $.02 at $1.04.
AEZS announced positive Phase 2 results on one of their pipeline compounds. Didn’t do much for the stock.
Earnings out next week on the 11th, before the market open.
Just waiting for some more good developement news here.
They stil have $57 million in cash, marketed products and a good pipeline.
Down 27% HOLD

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $5.68 (was $8.90, $9.40 before adding $10,000,and was $10.65 before double up), Valuation –Suspended.
Closed down $.03 at $5.67.
Earnings out in October. Pretty good actually. Sales up 7% to $28.8 million (second highest quartely sales ever). They lost $2.5 million or $.08 per share. Excluding write-offs and litigation costs they made $641k pre-tax.
Got to get past this FDA matter to allow this stock to move up.
A 510(K) filing for in-stent restenosis happened in early Octobber.
Canaccord Adams issued a BUY on SPNC in September. Target price is $8.
Hopefully we are getting close to a settlement with the FDA. Canaccord seems to think so.
SPNC is suffering from the year-ago FDA, ICE raids that apparently eminated from the ex-employee whistle-blower. SPNC has the financial where-with-all to deal with this. Growing nicely in a crappy economy. Just got to wait this one out.
The company has $34 million in cash ($1.04 per share), no debt and is growing about 10% a year.
DOWN .1%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $2.41 (was $3.02 before adding another $10,000,was $3.21 before adding another $10,000, averaged down from $3.66),
Valuation $7.46 (was $8.12, $8.07, $8.12, $8.64, $8.47, $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed up $.20 at $2.46.
Earnings due out Thursday, November 19th before the market open.
KVO Capital management filed a 13D in September. They own 402,000 shares (just under 7% of the company). Purchases were all in the second half of August from $1.66 to $2.74 per share. Finally, someone else seems to see the value here.
Earnings out in August. Sales down 17% to $4.765 million, but they made $.05 per share. New valuation is $7.46 and they have $.91 per share in cash.
UP 2%. BUY

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up)
NEW Valuation $12.57 (was $12.29, $11.90, $11.30, $11.48, $11.47 $10.99, $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Up $1.02 at $6.97.
Earnings out last week. Sales were up 9% and EPS more than doubled to $.08 per share. Cash is $2.78 per share and our valuation rose to $12.57 per share. The stock got up to $7.38 before falling back a bit. This should be a $10 stock right now, in our opinion.
Constellation Software filed another 13D/A in late August. Bought 290,000 shares at $5.20 raising their stake to 21.8%. When is the take-over offer??
All we read is that medical records will be a hot area, so MEDW looks like the place to be.
Up 10%. BUY

Vertro. (VTRO (was-MIVA)-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $1.63 (Was $2.38 before adding another $20,000, $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up),
Valuation $1.65 (was $1.89, $5.61, $6.42, $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Up $.02 at $.37.
VTRO announced preliminary Q3 results last week. Sales of $7.2 million (up 23% from the previous quarter)and they “only” lost $2.3 million compared to $3.9 million in Q2. Still have about $6.3 million of cash.
We will update our valuation when they release final results on November 11th after the market close.
We have no hope that we will ever make money on this one, nor are we sure they will survive at all. This one is teetering on the sell list–but not yet.
Down 77%. HOLD

Harris Interactive. (HPOL-Recommended 5/25/2008)
Buy Price $.69 (was $1.79, $1.82 before adding $10,000 each time, $2.02 before $10,000 added and $2.15 before double up),
Valuation $2.72 (Was $3.09, $2.78, $4.67, $4.66, $6.00, $5.96)
Up $.09 at $1.03.
Earnings out in late October. Not bad at all. While sales were down 23% to $38.8 million, they had a tiny loss of $.01 per share ($.04 loss last year). Adjusted EBITDA was $2.1 million up from $.7 million last year.
Our valuation fell to $2.72 per share.
More interestingly, Mill Road Capital filed a Form 13D/A on 10/29/2009 disclosing that they bought another 742,000 shares at an average price of about $.88 from October 8th to October 28th. This brings their ownership up to 4,178,000 shares or 7.7% of the company (up from 6.4% previously).
Finaciere De Sainte Marine, is a big investor in HPOL. They own over 14% of the company.
Up 49%. HOLD

IPASS. (IPAS-Recommended 6/1/2008)
Buy Price-$1.58 (adjusted for $.32 dividend) (Was $2.07 before another $10,000 added and $2.15 before double up
NEW Valuation $4.17 (was $4.73, $4.75, $4.12, $4.99, $4.30, $4.09)
Down $.13 at $1.17
Earning out on Thursday. Hmmmm. Revenues down 12% and they lost $6.1 million. Excluding “dial-up” revenues, revenues were still down 2.3%. $4.8 million of the loss was “one-time”. Apparently they figured out that they should have been charging sales taxes on some or all of their services. It took a state audit to turn this light on. This does not help with their credibility.
They also announced another special dividend of $.16 per share ($10 million) payable December 18th and initiated a share buyback program of $10 million. Any buyback money not used will be dividended to shareholders in April 2010.
At September 30, they had $50 million in cash ($.81 per share) and our valuation fell a bit to $4.17 ($4.49 adding back the $.32 dividend paid).
No one liked this report, and the stock fell $.13.
Foxhill ownership is 6.7%. Shamrock owns 9.8%, Royce 5.9% and Federated, 5.5%.
Down 22%. BUY

CCA Industries. (CAW-Recommended 8/4/2008)
Buy Price-$5.51 (was $6.14 before $10,000 added, $6.66 before $10,000 added, $7.00 before $10,000 added) (7% dividend yield)
Valuation $18.89 (Was $17.09, $17.05, $14.51, $17.23, $18.36)
Down $.13 to $4.41.
CCA announced earnings in October. Revenues were up 8% to $15.3 million and they earned $.23 per share compared to $.16 last year. They also declared their $.07 quarterly dividend. Our valuation moved up slightly to $18.89 per share. Cash was $2.76 per share.
Down 20%. HOLD/Buy under $5

Magic Software Enterprises. (MGIC-Recommended 8/18/2008)
Buy Price-$1.93 (was $2.08 before another $10,000 added, $2.00 before $10,000 added at $2.16)
NEW Valuation $3.78 (was $3.84, $3.80, $3.97, $4.18, $4.15)
Closed up $.10 at $1.92
Earnings out last week. Sales fell 15% to $13.5 million but they were still profitable and made $.03 per share. Our valuation fell $.06 $3.78 per share and cash per share was $1.15.
Formula Systems (NASDAQ-FORTY) holds 17,605,000 shares of MGIC or 55.4%. FORTY is a long-term investor that at some point will want to sell MGIC.
Down .3%. BUY

Angeion Corporation. (ANGN-Recommended 8/28/2008)
Buy Price-$3.82 (was $5.15 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $11.47 (was $11.16, $9.53, $13.30, $13.03)
Closed down $.26 at $3.40
Earnings out in late August. Sales fell 18% to $6.2 million and they essentially broke-even. Cash was $2.56 per share, and our valuation rose to $11.47 (still about 3 times the current share price).
Blueline Partners filed a 13D on ANGN on June 23, 2008. They own 216,000 shares or about 5.3% of the company. All of their purchases were well North of the current price.
Down 11%. HOLD

Global Shipping . (GSL-Recommended 10/12/2008)
Buy Price $2.16-(Was $2.59, $3.69 before adding another $10,000 each time)
Valuation NA-Dividend yield play
Closed down $.02 at $1.11
Current dividend yield–suspended
Earnings due out Tuesday November 10, before the market open.
CGM (their main customer continues to struggle. Trying to restructure their debt, get funding from the French goverment etc. We would think that GSL would be the last “supplier” to CGM to feel any effects of this due to CGM’s equity ownership in GSL.
Big announcements in late August. They finally made a deal with their bank and survived the ordeal. They had the rest of their credit line canceled, were allowed to take delivery of a used ship, no dividend until the loan to ship value is less than 75% and they have to start prepaying their loans. CGM has to stay in as an equity holder until at least November 30, 2010. Meanwhile their business is great. This is definitely going to be long-term though.
Earnings out in August. Let’s see, revenues up 58%, operating income up 39%. They made $.42 per share for the quarter and $.63 for the six months. All their ships are chartered and payments are current. Could be the buy of a lifetime if the ecomomy–and ship prices recover.
Their average ship charter life is around 10 years and the closest-in renewal is at the end of 2012.
Down 49%. HOLD

DIVX Inc. (DIVX-Recommended 5/26/2009)
Buy Price-$4.94
Valuation-$8.49 (Was $9.24)
Closed up $.44 at $5.25.
Earnings due out Monday, November 9th, after the close.
Earnings out in August. Sales fell 29% to $15.2 million and they lost $2.4 million or $.07 per share. On a Non-GAAP basis they were essentially at a breakeven. Our valuation fell to $8.49 per share and cash per share was up $.06 to $4.30.
We will hang on to this one for a while more.
Up 6%. HOLD

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks, especially in this Market.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $5.96 (was $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.09 up $.14.
Earnings out in late October. Sales up 24% to $5.3 million and they lost $114,000 or $.02 per share.
Our valuation soared to $5.96 per share. No one cares.
Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 5-6X what it is selling for.
Now down 32%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.79 (Was $.93, $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-each time),
Valuation $2.57 (was $2.81, $2.78, $3.30, $3.76, $4.00 $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.60, up $.04.
Next earning due out Monday, November 16th before the market opens.
Earnings out in September. Sales down 38% to $7.2 million. But they only lost $.03 per share. Our valuation fell to $2.57.
Down 24%. HOLD.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $.75 (Was $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.115 up $.015. Closed at $.095.
CTIG recently announced a sale to Ericsson in Poland for their VOIP solution. Earnings out in August. Sales down 18% to $4.1 million (up from $3.9 in Q1) and they lost $669,000. They blame the sales decline on currency issues. Our valuation fell to $.75 (still 6 times the current selling price)
Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money, but sales did reach $188,00up from $72,000 last quarter. They reduced the VOIP loss to $590,000. They also spent $439,000 on patent enforcement, which may result in some future gains for the company but there is no way to tell for sure.
They might have to sell or shut this VOIP business down in our opinion. Just losing too much money, and eroding shareholder value–or it could be a home run.
Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Down 57%. HOLD

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up)
Valuation-$1.84 (Was $1.56, $1.99, $2.22, $1.61, $1.06, $2.28, $2.08)
Closed at $.86, unchanged.
Lotus issued a press release last week, clarifying their legal structure and that they anticipate no liquidity issues. Stock got back up to $.86 on this news.
Earnings out in August. Sales fell a disappointing 30% from last year, but they were up from Q1. Amazingly they made $4.8 million in profit or $.10 per share. For the six months they have now earned $.17 per share. Our valuation headed back up to $1.84per share. Also selling at about 3 times earnings.
LTUS announced the granting of a new patent in July 2009. Seemed to affirm that maybe this company is real, and so cheap that it is worth buying.
Lotus announced in February 2009 that it bought the land use rights in Mongolia for $26 million, subject to contruction approvals etc. If the project is not approved, they get the money back. They paid for this out of internally generated funds. Pretty impressive. 3 years and $58 million to go to build this plant. They are also looking to sell or rent up to 80% of the land to other pharma companies to create a pharma industrial park.
This may work out ok. Unusual legal structure, $58 million construction project all hang over this company.
UP 3%. HOLD

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