Cheap Stocks, 10/16/2009 Update

A good week for us–up 5.25%. CAW reported very good results, LTUS.ob looked like it was taking off, but fell back to earth just before the close on Friday.

Now up 77% this year.

We are still not willing to commit new funds to any other stocks. IPAS, MEDW, DWCH and maybe CAW still are our favorites.

The DOW was up 1.3%, NASDAQ was up .8% and the S+P 500 was up 1.5%. For the year the DOW is up 13.9%. NASDAQ is up 36.8% and the S+P 500 is up 20.4%. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are also up 22-23% this year.

Last week we went 9 stocks up, 6 down and 1 even. Since inception we are now 37stocks up and 13 down (we are trying hard to get to our 80% winner target) .

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2008-PARL +56%
2009-MBRK +67%
2009-SNWL +14%
2009-CYNO +25%
2009-DTLK +33%
2009-NED +46%
2009-CUTR +13%
2009-HSTM +67% (continued good earnings)
2009-RNWK +36%
2009-OPK +116%
2009-CLZR -32% (a loser even on a buy-out)
2009-DTLK +28% (our 5th profitable trip on this one)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 34 stocks that we closed out in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 the average net gain was 27%.

AEterna Zentaris (AEZS-Recommended 6/20/2009)
Buy price $1.78 (was $1.82 before double up)
Valuation –Speculation.
Closed down $.02 at $1.17.
Just waiting for some good news here.
They stil have $57 million in cash, marketed products and a good pipeline.
Down 34% HOLD

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $5.68 (was $8.90, $9.40 before adding $10,000,and was $10.65 before double up), Valuation –Suspended.
Closed up $.24 at $6.47.
A 510(K) filing for in-stent restenosis in early Octobber.
Canaccord Adams issued a BUY on SPNC in September. Target price is $8.
Hopefully we are getting close to a settlement with the FDA. Canaccord seems to think so.
Earnings out in late July. Sales up 9% to $29 million (the highest quarter ever) and they lost $2 million or $.06 per share (25% less than last year). The loss included about $700,000 of legal expenses related to the FDA/ICE raids.
SPNC recently announced that they settled their wrongful dismissal lawsuit with an ex-employee, who purportedly is the wistleblower in the FDA/ICE raids last year. Maybe these issues will be resolved soon too. It has been 11 months since the raids.
SPNC is suffering from the FDA, ICE raids that apparently eminated from the ex-employee whistle-blower. SPNC has the financial where-with-all to deal with this. Growing nicely in a crappy economy. Just got to wait this one out.
The company has $32 million in cash ($.98 per share), no debt and is growing about 15% a year.
Up 14%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $2.41 (was $3.02 before adding another $10,000,was $3.21 before adding another $10,000, averaged down from $3.66),
Valuation $7.46 (was $8.12, $8.07, $8.12, $8.64, $8.47, $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed up $.06 at $2.58.
Earnings due out Thursday, November 19th before the market open.
KVO Capital management filed a 13D in September. They own 402,000 shares (just under 7% of the company). Purchases were all in the second half of August from $1.66 to $2.74 per share. Finally, someone else seems to see the value here.
Earnings out in August. Sales down 17% to $4.765 million, but they made $.05 per share. New valuation is $7.46 and they have $.91 per share in cash.
Up 7%. BUY

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up)
Valuation $12.29 (was $11.90, $11.30, $11.48, $11.47 $10.99, $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Down $.41 at $6.68.
MEDW announced their CFO is leaving. No “danger-signs” here that we see.
Earnings out in September–they were very good. Sales were up only about 4% but EPS doubled to $.07 per share. Cash is $2.63 per share and our valuation rose to $12.29 per share.
Constellation Software filed another 13D/A in late August. Bought 290,000 shares at $5.20 raising their stake to 21.8%. When is the take-over offer??
All we read is that medical records will be a hot area, so MEDW looks like the place to be.
Up 6%. BUY

Vertro. (VTRO (was-MIVA)-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $1.63 (Was $2.38 before adding another $20,000, $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up),
Valuation $1.65 (was $1.89, $5.61, $6.42, $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Down $.01 at $.49.
VTRO announced in September that they are apparently on track to do about $7.2 million of revenue in Q3 ($4.8 million for July and August), that they lost only $1.2million for these 2 months and are on track to be EBITDA positive in Q4. While the stock was up 40% last week, its market cap of $12 million (say 50% of sales) says nobody is really believing it yet.
Earnings out in August. Horrible of course (again). Sales were $6 million and they had an EBITDA loss of $3.4 million. Marigns held at a whopping 93%. Cash ended up at $8.3 million ($.25 per share and falling) down from $11 million or $.34 per share last quarter. They have amazed us at their ability to burn through all that cash they had. Our valuation coninued to fall–to $1.65 per share from $1.89 per share.
They keep claiming that the business is turning around and that the EBITDA loss will decline in Q3 and turn positive in Q4. We’ll see, so far this has been catching a falling knife.
We have no hope that we will ever make money on this one, nor are we sure they will survive at all. This one is teetering on the sell list–but not yet.
Down 70%. HOLD

Harris Interactive. (HPOL-Recommended 5/25/2008)
Buy Price $.69 (was $1.79, $1.82 before adding $10,000 each time, $2.02 before $10,000 added and $2.15 before double up),
Valuation $3.09 (Was $2.78, $4.67, $4.66, $6.00, $5.96)
Up $.02 at $.93.
Earnings due out Thursday, October 29th after the market close.
Last earnings out in August. Sales fell 32% and they only lost $.01 per share. Apparently there is life here.
13D filed in early July by Mill Road Capital disclosing a 6.4% ownership. Purchases were made in May, June and very early July at prices ranging from $.33 to $.45. Always encouraging when someone buys a 5% or better stake–even if the total investment is just over $1.3 million.
Finaciere De Sainte Marine, is a big investor in HPOL. They own over 14% of the company.
Up 35%. HOLD

IPASS. (IPAS-Recommended 6/1/2008)
Buy Price-$1.58 (adjusted for $.32 dividend) (Was $2.07 before another $10,000 added and $2.15 before double up
Valuation $4.73 (was $4.75, $4.12, $4.99, $4.30, $4.09)
Down $.02 at $1.36
Earning due out November 5th after the market close.
IPASS went ex-dividend in August. $.32 dividend was paid September 17th.
Earnings out in August. Sales were down 10% to $43.7 but they actually made $.02 per share. Our valuation fell $.02 to $4.73 per share and cash per share rose to $1.13 (now $.81 after dividend).
Broadband revenues were higher than last year and the prior quarter, while dial-up revenues continued to fall YOY ($4.8 million) and from the prior quarter ($1.4 million drop).
With the dividend in the “bag”, the second part of the settlement with Foxhill called for another $20 million to be paid as a dividend or a stock buyback (ICK).
Foxhill ownership is 6.7%. Shamrock owns 9.8%, Royce 5.9% and Federated, 5.5%.
Down 12%. BUY

CCA Industries. (CAW-Recommended 8/4/2008)
Buy Price-$5.51 (was $6.14 before $10,000 added, $6.66 before $10,000 added, $7.00 before $10,000 added) (7% dividend yield)
NEW Valuation $18.89 (Was $17.09, $17.05, $14.51, $17.23, $18.36)
Up $.72 to $4.90.
CCA announced earnings last week. Revenues were up 8% to $15.3 million and they earned $.23 per share compared to $.16 last year. They also declared their $.07 quarterly dividend. Good news and buyers jumped in driving the stock up to $5.50 at one point. Our valuation moved up slightly to $18.89 per share. Cash was $2.76 per share.
Down 11%. HOLD/Buy under $5

Magic Software Enterprises. (MGIC-Recommended 8/18/2008)
Buy Price-$1.93 (was $2.08 before another $10,000 added, $2.00 before $10,000 added at $2.16)
Valuation $3.84 (was $3.80, $3.97, $4.18, $4.15)
Closed up $.03 at $1.75
Earnings due out November 4th, before the market opens.
The persistent bid continued last week (5 weeks now) for about 572,000 shares at $1.70 per share. About 2% of the company.
Earnings out in August. Sales fell 15% to $13.6 million but they were still profitable and made $.03 per share. Our valuation rose to $3.84 per share and cash per share rose to $1.15.
Formula Systems (NASDAQ-FORTY) holds 17,605,000 shares of MGIC or 55.4%. FORTY is a long-term investor that at some point will want to sell MGIC.
Down 9%. BUY

Angeion Corporation. (ANGN-Recommended 8/28/2008)
Buy Price-$3.82 (was $5.15 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $11.47 (was $11.16, $9.53, $13.30, $13.03)
Closed up $.24 at $3.87
Earnings out in late August. Sales fell 18% to $6.2 million and they essentially broke-even. Cash was $2.56 per share, and our valuation rose to $11.47 (still about 3 times the current share price).
Blueline Partners filed a 13D on ANGN on June 23, 2008. They own 216,000 shares or about 5.3% of the company. All of their purchases were well North of the current price.

Global Shipping . (GSL-Recommended 10/12/2008)
Buy Price $2.16-(Was $2.59, $3.69 before adding another $10,000 each time)
Valuation NA-Dividend yield play
Closed down $.10 at $1.56
Current dividend yield–suspended
CGM (their main customer continues to struggle. Trying to restructure their debt, get funding from the French goverment etc. We would think that GSL would be the last “supplier” to CGM to feel any effects of this due to CGM’s equity ownership in GSL.
Big announcements in late August. They finally made a deal with their bank and survived the ordeal. They had the rest of their credit line canceled, were allowed to take delivery of a used ship, no dividend until the loan to ship value is less than 75% and they have to start prepaying their loans. CGM has to stay in as an equity holder until at least November 30, 2010. Meanwhile their business is great. This is definitely going to be long-term though.
Earnings out in August. Let’s see, revenues up 58%, operating income up 39%. They made $.42 per share for the quarter and $.63 for the six months. All their ships are chartered and payments are current. Could be the buy of a lifetime if the ecomomy–and ship prices recover.
Their average ship charter life is around 10 years and the closest-in renewal is at the end of 2012.
Down 29%. HOLD

DIVX Inc. (DIVX-Recommended 5/26/2009)
Buy Price-$4.94
Valuation-$8.49 (Was $9.24)
Closed down $.14 at $5.13.
Earnings out in August. Sales fell 29% to $15.2 million and they lost $2.4 million or $.07 per share. On a Non-GAAP basis they were essentially at a breakeven. Our valuation fell to $8.49 per share and cash per share was up $.06 to $4.30.
We will hang on to this one for a while more.
Up 4%. HOLD

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks, especially in this Market.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $4.72 (was $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $.91, up $.06.
Earnings out Thursday, October 29th before the market opens.
Earnings out in June. Not bad. Sales up slightly from $4.16 to $4.17 million and they made $278,000 pre-tax income. Our valuation fell to $4.72 per share.
Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 5X what it is selling for.
Now down 44%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.79 (Was $.93, $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-each time),
Valuation $2.57 (was $2.81, $2.78, $3.30, $3.76, $4.00 $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.55, up $1.0.
Earnings out in September. Sales down 38% to $7.2 million. But they only lost $.03 per share. Our valuation fell to $2.57.
Down 18%. HOLD.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $.75 (Was $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.11 unchanged. Closed at $.11.
CTIG recently announced a sale to Ericsson in Poland for their VOIP solution. Did nothing for the stock price.
Earnings out in August. Sales down 18% to $4.1 million (up from $3.9 in Q1) and they lost $669,000. They blame the sales decline on currency issues. Our valuation fell to $.75 (still 5 times the current selling price)
Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money, but sales did reach $188,00up from $72,000 last quarter. They reduced the VOIP loss to $590,000. They also spent $439,000 on patent enforcement, which may result in some future gains for the company but there is no way to tell for sure.
They might have to sell or shut this VOIP business down in our opinion. Just losing too much money, and eroding shareholder value–or it could be a home run.
Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Down 59%. HOLD

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up)
Valuation-$1.84 (Was $1.56, $1.99, $2.22, $1.61, $1.06, $2.28, $2.08)
Closed at $.94, up $.07.
LTUS came alive last week after a favorable article. Got up to $1.07, then dived late on Friday on moderate volume.
Earnings out in August. Sales fell a disappointing 30% from last year, but they were up from Q1. Amazingly they made $4.8 million in profit or $.10 per share. For the six months they have now earned $.17 per share. Our valuation headed back up to $1.84per share. Also selling at about 3 times earnings.
LTUS announced the granting of a new patent in July 2009. Seemed to affirm that maybe this company is real, and so cheap that it is worth buying.
Lotus announced in February 2009 that it bought the land use rights in Mongolia for $26 million, subject to contruction approvals etc. If the project is not approved, they get the money back. They paid for this out of internally generated funds. Pretty impressive. 3 years and $58 million to go to build this plant. They are also looking to sell or rent up to 80% of the land to other pharma companies to create a pharma industrial park.
This may work out ok. Unusual legal structure, $58 million construction project all hang over this company.
UP 12%. HOLD


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