Last week we went 5 up and 7 down and 4 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by PARL, INFT, ILOG, SPNC, BDR and ARIS.ob. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +3.7%,+16.4% and +34.3% respectively. Since inception we are now 14 stocks up and 7 down (5 of which is down less than 10%).
We went in the same direction as the market again last week-UP-but much better. We were up 3.7% this past week and are now up 16.4% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 all gained from .5% to 1.1% last week, and are all now up from 6.2% to 6.5% for the year. We are still are up more than double the averages.
Since inception we have closed out the following positions:
ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
PDLI, DWCH and RITT all announced earnings last week.
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.54 to $10.12 last week.
SPNC filed their TURBO Booster 501k application last week–earlier than expected and the stock went down. This just confirms our belief that this stock is being manipulated big-time. I have owned this stock for almost 10 years and have never seen trading in it like this. Patience should win out here. The company is doing all the right things to propel the stock to $20. If CELLO is approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now down 5% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.63, up $.03.
Earnings due Thursday, May 17th after the close.
Trading at 60% of our valuation.
Up 39% so far. HOLD.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $25.63, down $.13.
Revenues up 18%, Non-GAAP income up to $.09 per share versus $.03 last year. They updated their Non-GAAP income guidance to $.42 to $.58 per share for the year. Growing revenues, growing income, great pipeline, the CEO under pressure to improve the stock price. Lots of catalysts–which we like. Shooting for at least $30 a share on this one.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company and has more than $200 million invested. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 33%. HOLD.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.37, unchanged for the week.
Earnings due out May 7th, after the close.
Now up 15%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), NEW Valuation $9.20 (was $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $5.04, up $1.49 for the week (42%).
Earnings were good and the stock reacted. Sales up 14% and made $.08 per share (not taxed). Price got to $5.64 on Friday before falling back. Volume averaged 275,000 shares per day. As we said before about some of our illiquid stocks, they don’t trade a lot until something happens–then it is usually too late.
New valuation is $9.20 per share. If this gets to $7 we would sell.
No other news.
Now up 57%. HOLD.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $3.74 (averaged down from $4.11), Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Unchanged at $3.18 last week.
This IS ridiculous. Cash is 83% of the market cap.
Earnings are out on May 14th, after the close.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 15%. BUY.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, NEW Valuation $1.95 (Was $3.36, $2.69)
Unchanged at $1.33 last week.
Earnings last week, but no impact. Sales were up a tad–4%, and they still lost money–$788,000 or $.05 per share. Our valuation dropped all the way down to $1.95, but we are not selling as this seems to be their weakest sales quarter, and they have yet to show any progress on their “carrier” business, which they keep saying is coming in 2007. One good quarter should drive the valuation back over $3 and hopefully the price over $2.
Up 33%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), NEW Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.55, down $.17 last week.
No news last week and the stock continued to drift down. The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 25%. HOLD.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.75 up $.01 for the week.
No news. Trading at 34% of our valuation.
Down 4%. BUY
ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.99 (was $20.52)
Closed at $12.61 last week, down $.16.
Down 7%. BUY
Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
Up $.17 to $9.12 last week
On Thursday BDAY spiked up to $10.00 on 50,000 shares, but couldn’t hold there and gave most of it back on 38,000 shares. With the insider buying in the last couple of months, we like this stock alot.
Up 3%. BUY
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
Our OB’s were pretty much ignored last week as there are other stocks to chase with the strong markets.
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.00, down $.02 last week.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 2%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.18, even last week.
Now trading at only 32% of our current valuation.
This one has cost us 3% off our total 2007 performance so far.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around.
Down 50%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.30, down $.05 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share–35% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
4% gain so far. BUY.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.40, up $.03.
Now up 18%. BUY.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.42 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price moved down $.08 to $.42. Closed at $.40.
This is still trading at only 30% of our latest valuation.
Up 56% based on the ASK price. HOLD.