4/6/2007 Update

Last week we went 8 up and 8 down. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by INFT, PARL, DWCH, ARIS, and BDR. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is (2.95%),+5.8% and +22.1% respectively. Since inception we are 15 stocks up and 6 down (3 of which are down less than 10%).

We paid our dues last week with a 2.95% loss last week and are up 5.8% so far in 2007, while the DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 all surged again last week by 1.6% to 2.1%, and are all now up from .8% to 2.3% for the year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

NTCT +44%
ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
DTLK +41%
CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

Interesting week. CTIG.ob,BDR and OPTO.ob all announced earnings last week and DWCH had some interesting news.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Up $.23 to $10.93 last week.
This is a great company with great prospects that is executing well. SPNC picked up a Buy recommendation from SunTrust last week, but the price target was a measley $13. SPNC will be attending a ST conference on April 11th, so hopefully we will see an increase in the price target shortly after that.
Now up 3% so far. BUY.

QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.29, up $.19.
No news. But volume seems to picking up, along with the price.
Trading at 58% of our valuation.
Up 34% so far. BUY.

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $21.73, up $.03.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, which owns 8 million shares or 7.5% of the company, continues to lurk in the background. We think that PDLI is a bargain at this price. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
No news last week.
Now up 13%. HOLD.

MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.01, up $.17.
No news.
Now up 6%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.89, down $.01 for the week.
A 13D was filed on March 28th by Ray Huger the developer of the Monarch software that DWCH sells. He bought 47,000 shares at $2.98 to $3.08 from February 28 to March 22. He now holds 280,800 shares or 5.1%. Maybe he knows something. We bought a little more last week too.
Now down 10%. BUY.

Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Closed down $.13 at $3.36 last week.
No news. Time to double up on this one too–avg. price will be $3.74.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 18%. BUY.

Mobius Management Systems (MOBI-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69
Up $.11 to $7.46 last week.
No news.
Up 12%. HOLD.

RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
Closed down $.19 at $1.57 last week.
No news.
As we cautioned last week, the fairly quick run up in price made us cautious and sure enough we had a bad week here.
Up 57%. HOLD.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), Valuation $13.77)
PARL closed at $5.23, down $.35 last week.
They are asking the SEC for another extention for their December 31, numbers (Q3)until April 16. Our guess is that they will get it. No news on this last week. We think the stock price will continue to vacillate for a while until they get fully compliant on their filings.
Down 15%. BUY.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, NEW Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.76 down $.19 for the week.
Earnings last week were “OK”. Our valuation fell to $5.12, but our original valuation was based on estimates of all the transactions they were in the middle of. We still like this stock and bought more ourselves last week. Trading at 34% of our valuation.
Down 4%. BUY

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.52
Closed at $14.06 last week, up $.49.
No news.
Up 3%. HOLD

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.95, up $.04 last week.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 5%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.22, up $.02 last week.
Now trading at only 39% of our current valuation.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around. They are still “cheap” compared to our valuation (and unfortunately getting cheaper).
Down 44%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.50, down $.09 last week.
OPTIO announced earnings last week. They lost $.01 per share (made $.01 for the year) and sales fell 9% from the YOY quarter, but OPTIO has been successfully transitioning from a license sales model to a subscription based model and the entire sales decline was from license sales. Subscription sales and Service sales increased from the prior year. Our valuation stayed the same at $2.89. Cash went up to $.47 per share–31% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
20% gain so far. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.55, down $.05.
No news.
Now up 30%. HOLD.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, NEW Valuation $1.28 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price fell $.02 to $.37. Closed at $.35.
Based of CTIG’s pro-forma numbers (for the Ryder acquisition) our valuation went up to $1.42 per share. Their reported numbers for the quarter and year ended 12/31/2006 really don’t mean much at this point as none of the Ryder income was included.
This is now trading at only 26% of our latest valuation. A screaming BUY.
Up 37% based on the ASK price. BUY

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s