Last week we went 9 up, 6 down. LINN.ob moved into first place on our “biggest dog” list by a fraction over DWCH. INFT, PARL, ARIS.ob and MOBI follow them. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006 our model portfolio is +2.9%,+.2% and +15.7% respectively. Since inception we are 13 stocks up and 6 down (4 of which are down 10% or less).
Optio (OPTO.ob) finally looks like it has cracked the $1.50 level it has reached several times in the past. It even hit $1.80 last week before closing back down at $1.60. Even so, volume has picked up significantly and maybe this one is finally being “discovered”.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Up $.68 to $10.97 last week. Shorts lost the battle last week. Prospects are really great for this company. No news. Now up 3% so far. BUY.
QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86). Closed at $8.17, up $.07. Trading at 60% of valuation. Earnings due March 15th. No news. Has $1.07 in cash also. Up 18% so far. HOLD.
PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.51, down $.42. No news. This remains a very volatile stock. Now up 6%. HOLD.
MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $4.32, up $.15. Now up 14%. HOLD.
DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, NEW Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)). Closed at $2.76, up $.09 for the week, now down 25%. See our post earlier this week on the earnings report. With the valuation moving up, and the price now only 33% of our valuation, we are going to officially double up on this one at $2.76. BUY.
INFT-(Buy price $4.11, NEW Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)). Down $.07 to $3.77 last week. Has $2.64 per share in cash. See our post earlier this week on INFT’s earning report. With the valuation moving down again, our hope here is that all these big funds that seem to be buying this stock know what they are doing and INFT is being prepped for a sale in the near future. Price objective $5.50. Earnings due on January 31st. Now down 8%. HOLD.
MOBI-(Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69). Up $.22 to $6.50 last week. The stock got dumped down below $6 last week, but rebounded nicely by Fridays to end up, on the week. Some large holder looks like they got frustrated with the stock and dumped a bunch on Thursday (876,000 shares) So we are now trading at 51% of our valuation and cash is 41% of the market cap. Down 3%. BUY.
RITT-(Buy price $1.00, NEW Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69). See our post earlier this week on their earnings report. It looked good to us. Closed up $.14 at $1.39 last week. Up 39%. HOLD.
PARL-(Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77). PARL closed at $6.23, up $.48 last week. We got our Proxy card last week and are voting for Nussdorf. Parlux signed a new fragrance deal announced on Friday. Wish we recognized the name! Down 6%. This remains a BUY.
ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)). Closed at $2.00, down $.02 last week. Their OC-Net acquisition looks pricey to us. If ARIS was selling at the multiple of sales they paid, it would be a $5 stock. We are slapping a HOLD on this one for now, until we see some results. This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down 3% so far. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.27, down $.01 last week. Still trading at only 44% of our current valuation. Down 25%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)). Closed at $1.60, up $.11. Has $.44 in cash per share also. Looks like OPTIO is being discovered. It got up to $1.80 last week on some good volume. Maybe we will see north of $2.00 this year. 28% gain so far. HOLD.
AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.48, up $.02. Now up 24%. No significant news last week. HOLD.
CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price was down $.015 at $.28. Closed at $.26. Cash is (was) $.24 per share. Six weeks ago CTI announced the purchase of Ryder Systems LTD. an international provider of electronic and on-line billing solutions and developer of VoIP business applications. Five weeks ago they filed an 8-K, with details of the financing they got to fund the $11 million purchase–but still no details of what they bought. Now up 4% so far (based on ask price). HOLD until we see what we just bought.
IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.11 at $2.17, up 14% to date. Still waiting for the “attractive cash offer” that management says is coming. Hopefully it will be attractive by our standards and be at least $3 per share–so we can book at least a 50% gain on this one. Bank debt is now scheduled for repayment by March 31, 2007 and they have arranged financing for their latest acquisition. HOLD.