Still muddling along

We went 7 up, 6 down and 1 even last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, popped back up 1.1% to 11.2%. DWCH continued as our biggest dog followed by, INFT, Linn.ob and MIVA. Since the start of the year we are 13 up and 4 down and 1 even. Mini-caps continue to lag way behind the market. Tax selling seemed to keep INFT and DWCH going down.

Earnings on CTIG.ob and AVSO.ob last week.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Dropped another $.24 to $11.24 last week. No news, just the shorts and market makers playing games with 100 share trades again. Volume has dropped off significantly. Up 6% so far. HOLD

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $8.20, up $.10. Trading at only 60% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 18% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $22.75, up $1.78. Biotech buy-out binge continues, maybe ours will be next. Now up 18%. HOLD.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.39, up $.12. No news. Down 11% so far. HOLD.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $1.95, down $.39, still a loser–now down a whopping 47%. HOLD to see how this quarter turns out on November 21. Valuation gap is still huge, but declining. VSNT, DTLK, NTCT did nothing for a long time–until they announced some good earnings and then all took off. Lets hope this is DWCH’s quarter and they do not crater the earnings.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Down $.20 last week to $3.53. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 14%. I think that there is some tax loss selling going on here, and just impatience. Frustrating stock. BUY.

MOBI-(Buy price $7.08, Valuation $12.69). Up $.12 last week to $7.20. Had gotten up to over $7.50, but swooned on Friday. Still OK to BUY at this level.

RITT-(Buy price $1.00, Valuation $2.69). Closed even at $1.00 last week. Tax loss sellers need to finish up and then maybe we will start to see this one rise. BUY.


ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.21)). Closed at $2.15, up $.15 last week. This stock is still pretty illiquid so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now up 4% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.32, up $.04 last week. Still trading at only 52% of our current valuation. Down 11% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.41, up $.09. We were starting to get excited on Friday when the stock hit $1.53, but then the buyers went home for the weekend and we closed at $1.41. So now we have a 13% gain. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, NEW Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.47, down $.03. Q1 earnings last week were so-so. Sales were up 30.6% year-over-year, but they only made a tiny $36,000 profit down from $166,000 in the prior year. Valuation has been consistently dropping which we do not like. But, if they do the $55-$60 million in revenue that they are projecting for current fiscal year (did $12 million in Q1)–this stock should double from here as our valuation will range from $3.71 to $4.03 (assuming margins remain in the 40-50% range. Now up 24%. HOLD.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, NEW Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price dropped $.01 to $.28. Closed at $.252. Cash is $.24 per share. CTI announced earnings last week. Sales were down due mostly to lumpy patent revenue, but they made $113,000 in profit! From the sounds of the press release, things seem to be progressing well. Up 4% so far (based on asked price). BUY if you can find some shares.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed down $.06 at $2.27, up 19% to date. This is still very risky, but could be a real barnburner is they do what they say they are going to do. HOLD.


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