CSI February 2017 Update

We have sold 10 of our private positions in 2016 since December 2015 when we discontinued the Blog..

HLIT-74% gain on our remaining position

Ceragon-48% gain

Imation—31% gain

Mitel-15% gain

United Online-6% loss (take-under)

SGI—70% gain on takeover.

AVID-55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

HLIT-85% gain. We sold 75% of our position here.

UVE-36% gain.

ATEC-71% gain. (This was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com. It is NOT CHEAP though.

We averaged a 42.3% gain on our 10 sold positions in our private portfolio since January 1, 2016 and are up 7.2% on our other 19 open positions (13 stocks are up and 6 are down).

Here is our Blog portfolio track record since 2006:

Annual performance:

2016 +18.3%

2015   +8%

2014   +11.5%

2013   +47.9%

2012   +30.9%

2011   (.6%)

2010   +37.6%

2009   +88.9%

2008   (46.5%)

2007   +11.1%

2006   +14.4%

Average gain of 20.5%

Compound annual gain of 15.2%

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 70 winners, 17 losers for an 80.5% win-rate with an average gain of 38%.

Since we have only 6 remaining stocks in our “portfolio” we will be discontinuing the portfolio performance metrics in 2017. We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually in 2017.

Concurrent announced Q2 (12/31/2016) earnings in February. They rebounded from a poor Q1. Our valuation snapped back to $13.83 from $9.49 in Q1 and $13.68 for Q2 2015. Revenues were $15.5 million, cash was $2.03 per share, EBITDA was $700,000 and the net loss was $88,000 and Non-GAAP net income was $220,000. Overall not bad. This company needs to be sold. It has traded at a discount for too long and management has shown no talent in getting the share price up.

Bridgeline announced Q1 (12/31/2016) results in February. Another disappointing quarter. Revenue fell from $4.2 million to $4 million while they managed to cut their net loss from $1.348 million to $.408 million. Our valuation fell from $1.53 to $1.38. It looks like their recurring revenue is now just shy of $7 million a year. With a market cap of about $14.5 million, we think this is still undervalued, but the persistent share dilution over the years (shares have doubled since 2009) and the decline in sales from about $24 million to the current $16 million or so, have killed this stock. Expect more of the same next quarter. We are holding on here in the hope of recouping some of our cost either on a buy-out, or maybe they actually start creating some value. Maybe we get lucky and the stock gets run up over $3.00 again like last year, even if only for a few hours.

Index February YTD
Dow 4.8% 5.3%
Nasdaq 3.9% 8.2%

February 2017 Legacy Positions:

Per Share Current Lifetime 2017 Current Price to Prior
Stock Cost Price Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Valuation Valuation Valuation
CCUR **          4.58        7.05 54% -4.6% $     13.83 51% $     9.49
BLIN          3.95        0.65 -84% 1.6% $     1.38 47% $     1.53
SYNC          2.56        3.00 17% -3.2% $     6.17 49% $     6.23
PRSS          4.01        3.02 -25% 2.7% $     7.43 41% $     7.73
ATEC          7.06        3.37 -52% 5.0% $     18.78 18% $     19.93
AVID          8.35        5.62 -33% 27.7% $     22.03 26% $     25.56
** Current price includes cumulative dividends

 

Private Portfolio Update

In addition to the 10 stocks we have sold since we began offering private subscriptions, of which 9 have been winners with an average gain of 42%, below is the distribution of our 19 current portfolio holdings:

If you would like to subscribe, please e-mail daveosowski@gmail.com for the particulars.

Open Stock Positions 2/24/2017
Stocks up over 50%                    3
Stocks up 25%-50%                    2
Stocks up 10%-25%                    6
Stocks up 1%-10%                    2
Total Stocks down                  13
Stocks down 1%-10%                    2
Stocks down 10%-25%                    2
Stocks down 25%-50%                    2
Stocks down over 50%                      –
Total Stocks down                    6

January 2017 Update

We have sold 9 of our private positions in 2016 and 2017 (either fully or partially).

Ceragon-48% gain

Imation—31% gain

Mitel-15% gain

United Online-6% loss (take-under)

SGI—70% gain on takeover.

AVID-55% gain (this was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

HLIT-85% gain. We sold 75% of our position here.

UVE-36% gain.

ATEC-71% gain. (This was a trading position-in addition to our long-term holding)

If you are interested in becoming one of our private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com. It is NOT CHEAP though.

We averaged a 42.6% gain on our 9 sold positions in our private portfolio since January 1, 2016 and are up 7.1% on our other 17 open positions.

Here is our Blog portfolio track record since 2006:

Annual performance:

2016 +18.3%

2015   +8%

2014   +11.5%

2013   +47.9%

2012   +30.9%

2011   (.6%)

2010   +37.6%

2009   +88.9%

2008   (46.5%)

2007   +11.1%

2006   +14.4%

Average gain of 20.5%

Compound annual gain of 15.2%

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 70 winners, 17 losers for an 80.5% win-rate with an average gain of 38%.

Since we have only 6 remaining stocks in our “portfolio” we will be discontinuing the portfolio performance metrics in 2017. We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually in 2017.

None of our companies had earnings reports in January.

Index January
Dow 0.5%
Nasdaq 4.3%

 

January 2017 Legacy Positions:

Per Share Current Lifetime 2017 Current Price to Prior
Stock Cost Price Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Valuation Valuation Valuation
CCUR **          4.58        7.22 58% -2.3% $     9.49 76% $     16.16
BLIN          3.95        0.69 -83% 7.8% $     1.53 45% $     2.11
SYNC         2.56        3.15 23% 1.6% $     6.17 51% $     6.23
PRSS          4.01        3.44 -14% 17.0% $     7.43 46% $     7.73
ATEC          7.06        2.89 -59% -10.1% $     18.78 15% $     19.93
AVID          8.35        5.35 -36% 21.6% $     22.03 24% $     25.56
** Current price includes cumulative dividends