Author: Dave O

Cheap Stock Weekly Update June 16th 2014

We gave a bit of last week gain back-down 1.1%.. The DOW was down .9% and NASDAQ was down .3%. For the year, the DOW is up 1.2% and NASDAQ is up 3.2%

 SIGM and ARI earnings last week..

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

UNTD 48%
CCUR 29%
SIGM 55%
MRVC 16%
SYNC 53%

PRSS, MRVC, DAEG, EXTR and UNTD can still be bought.

Last week we went 4 stocks up, 9 down and 1 even. Since inception we are now 66 stocks up and 19 down for a 77.6% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions, 59 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 34% average net gain per position.

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:  Continue reading →

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CSI Tip: HOLD ARI Networks

ARI announced Q3 2014 earnings (quarter ended April 30, 2014) on June 12th. Revenues were $8.2 million about even with last year. They actually made a profit of $.01 per share versus a $.05 loss last year.  Our valuation rose to $5.67 up from $5.57 last quarter. Recurring revenue was $7.6 million or 93% of total revenue.

It was nice to see them stop losing money, but growing revenue at their 80% margins boosts value more than earning $.01. Too bad their poor capital structure makes them have to balance the two. It will just take longer for them to grow.

From their press release:

“As we noted on our prior quarter earnings call, we expected year-over-year organic revenue growth in the back half of fiscal 2014 to be challenging, however, we anticipated significant improvement in our earnings and cash flow. The results for Q3 are in line with these expectations. The investments we are making in sales and marketing are having a positive impact on new sales and upsells. To date in fiscal 2014, we have invested 29.4% of revenue in sales and marketing versus 25.2% for the first nine months of last year. This has contributed to new dealer sales and upsell bookings, measured in annual contract value (ACV), being up 38.8% year-to-date. We believe this should translate into single-digit organic growth in Q1 FY15, growing toward low double-digit growth as we progress through fiscal 2015.”

HOLD

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Sigma Designs Earnings Update 6/12/14

SIGM announced Q1 2014 earnings (quarter ended Mary 3, 2014) on June 11th. Revenues were $36.9 million down from $38.5 million last year. GAAP net loss was $.29 a share, compared to a loss of $.13 per share last year. Non-GAAP loss was $.14 per share compared to a $.01 profit last year. Our valuation fell to $8.24 down from $9.16 last quarter. Net cash per share was $2.38.

Only forecast in the press release was that this should be the lowest revenue quarter for the foreseeable future. The market seems to like the results as the stock is up about 25% over the last few days.

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Cheap Stock Weekly Update June 9th 2014

After last week’s dismal performance we had our best week of the year this week-up 5.2% We are now up 7.2% for the year. The DOW was up 1.2% and NASDAQ was up 1.9%. For the year, the DOW is up 2.1% and NASDAQ is up 3.5%

No earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

UNTD 47%
CCUR 28%
SIGM 77%
MRVC 16%
SYNC 53%

 PRSS, MRVC, DAEG, EXTR and UNTD can still be bought.

Last week we went 8 stocks up and 6 down. Since inception we are now 66 stocks up and 19 down for a 77.6% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions 59 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 34% average net gain per position.

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions: Continue reading →

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Cheap Stock Weekly Update June 2nd 2014

We went in the opposite direction from the markets last week as micro caps were ignored and continued to drift down. We were down 1% last week driven by a 12% loss in BLIN.  We are now up 2% for the year. The DOW was up 1.1% and NASDAQ was up 1.4%. For the year, the DOW is up .9% and NASDAQ is up 1.6%

No earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

UNTD 44%
CCUR 28%
SIGM 76%
MRVC 18%
SYNC 51%

 

PRSS, MRVC, DAEG, EXTR and UNTD can still be bought.

Last week we went 3 stocks up, 9 down and 2 even. Since inception we are now 67 stocks up and 18 down for a 78.8% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).  Of our closed-out positions 59 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 34% average net gain per position.

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions: Continue reading →

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Cheap Stock Weekly Update May 26th 2014

We were down .5% last week driven by a 7.5% loss in ARIS in which we are over-weighted. We are now up 3% for the year. The DOW was up .3% and NASDAQ was up 1.0%. For the year, the DOW is down .2% and NASDAQ is down 1.1%

No earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

UNTD 45%
CCUR 28%
SIGM 76%
MRVC 17%
SYNC 51%

 PRSS, MRVC, DAEG, EXTR and UNTD can still be bought.

Last week we went 6 stocks up and 8 down. Since inception we are now 68 stocks up and 17 down for a 80.0% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions, 59 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 34% average net gain per position.

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions:  Continue reading →

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CSI Update: BUY CaféPress Inc. (NASDAQ–PRSS)

Valuation-$11.27

Price May 19, 2014, 2014-$5.40

PRSS is a little different than our usual picks. Although it is an online business, it basically sells T-Shirts and things. Nevertheless, we have been watching it for a while and think this is a good entry point. I own PRSS.

Latest earnings were for the quarter ended 3/31/2014. Nothing to write home about. Revenues were down from $52.5 million to $48.2 million and they lost $5.2 million versus a $4 million loss last year. Like most “retailers” their business is somewhat seasonal. They are projecting around $250 million of sales for 2014 and breakeven to a loss of $.12 a share on a Non-GAAP basis. Our valuation based on the latest quarter is $11.27 a share. If they hit their guidance, it is over $16 a share.

Back in February, PRSS announced that they had hired Raymond James & Associates to help them pursue “strategic alternatives”. We think PRSS could be sold for a premium to the current stock price, if a buyer can be found.

Trading at only 48% of our valuation we think this is a BUY..

There are about 17 million shares outstanding and it trades about 45,000 shares a day.

About PRSS: Continue reading →

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CSI Update: HOLD Bridgeline Digital

BLIN announced Q2 2014 earnings (quarter ended March 31, 2014) on May 15th. Ug. Revenues were $5.3 million down from $6 million last year. GAAP net loss was $.13 a share, compared to a loss of $.05 per share last year. Non-GAAP loss was $.07 per share compared to breakeven last year. Our valuation fell to $1.74 up from $1.83 last quarter. BLIN is trading at about 45% of our valuation. BLIN management expressed how disappointed they were at these results. No kidding. We were too. Their backlog was a healthy $20 million ($12.2 million booked this past quarter) but the $7 million deal they recently signed won’t kick in until FY 2015 (2 more quarters. They also alluded to signing another multiyear, multi-million dollar deal this quarter (which is half over). Until then they are projecting about $6 million a quarter. We are still believers here but this is no longer a BUY. We will give them another couple of quarters but we are reducing this to a HOLD for now.

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CSI Update: HOLD Synacor Inc.

SYNC announced Q1 2014 earnings after the close on May 13. Revenues were $25.2 million down from $29.1 million last year. Net loss was $.07 per share compared to break even last year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $.7 million compared to positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 million last year. Not a great quarter.

Our valuation fell to $5.44 from $5.94 last quarter. Cash was $1.17 per share, more than 50% of the current market cap.

SYNC is trading at about 42% of our valuation. We will HOLD for now and see how the next couple of quarters look. Any signs of a turnaround and we think this stock will soar. A buy out is always a possibility.

It’s earnings season! I will be updating the blog more frequently during this time. If you don’t want to miss out, be sure to click the “follow” button on the left side of the page.

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Cheap Stock Weekly Update May 13th 2014

Despite double digit gains in TSYS and DXM, we still we down 2.1% last week, cutting our YTD gain to 2.8%. Small caps got hit last week.. The DOW was up .4% and NASDAQ was down 1.3%. For the year, the DOW is even and NASDAQ is down 2.8%

DEX, MRVC and XRSC earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand per share divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

UNTD 45%
CCUR 28%
SIGM 73%
MRVC 18%
SYNC 59%

BLIN, DAEG, EXTR and UNTD can still be bought.

Last week we went 2 stocks up and 11 down. Since inception we are now 67stocks up and 18 down for a 78.8% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions 59 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 34% average net gain per position.

Since our beginning, we have closed out the following positions: Continue reading →

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