September was terrible for me and for the markets in general. I was down 10.8% in September and am down 21.2% for the year. NASDAQ is down 32.4% year-to-date and was down 7.9% in September, the Russell 2000 is down 25.9% year-to-date and was down 8.0% in September and the NYSE is down 21.8% year-to-date and was down 7.7% in September. I added to two positions in September but didn’t sell anything.
I don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel yet. The FED is looking at inflation which has stabilized at a too-high level, but it is also looking at the labor market which is still running hot. They have signaled another 1.25% increase in the Fed funds rate by the end of the year. So likely another .75% increase in early November and another .5% increase in December. That will put mortgage rates over 7% and maybe even 8%. Historically this is not that high, but it is a shock to anyone under 35 or 40. Oil did fall to under $90 a barrel, at least for now, but “core inflation” (excluding food and energy) is still running high. Ukraine is still at war, the 2 and 10 year treasury rates are still inverted and on and on. We are in a bear market and in a recession. I still think the market will correct further. Valuations are still way too high on many stocks and their growth rates are slowing, their PE ratios are too high or they are losing money and have huge market caps. I have not seen any sign that the market has capitulated and is ready to go up. So, we just sit and watch and bleed from a thousand pinpricks.
I have not changed my valuation formula as it worked before the 2008 housing bust, after it, and before the 2020 bubble and after it. When the high-flying stocks go down, everything does, whether it makes sense or not. Many times, this is the time to buy, but not yet.
In late 2015 I started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Free Blog (2006 to 2015), but I tell you exactly what stocks I bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares I own and their valuations. 92.5% of my closed positions have been profitable.
The cost to subscribe is $50 a month for individuals, with a 100 subscriber limit. First-time subscribers can purchase a 3 month subscription for $100. I am not trying to get rich by having thousands of subscribers. I give away almost all of the money I get for subscriptions. I do this for self-discipline in my investing, so I am accountable to someone besides myself, which helps keep me focused. I am NOT a trader. I buy my stocks thinking I will own them for 2 years. Many, I own for far less than two years, but some I have held for five years or more. Including my current open positions, 81% of my stocks have been or are profitable.
Through 2022 to date, I have averaged a 48.0% gain on the 67 stocks I have sold (62 winners and 5 losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Seventeen of the 66 stocks have had buy-out offers, including two in 2016, six in 2017, two in 2018, none in 2019, two in 2020, four in 2021 and one so far in 2022.
My total portfolio was up 42.7% in 2021, 30.6% in 2020 and 72.8% in 2019. I took most of these gains and banked them in cash.
I stopped publishing my free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. Since inception of the Blog in 2006, I had 73 winners, 20 losers for a 78.5% win-rate with an average gain of 38.9% on the free blog.
If you are interested in becoming one of my private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org to get all the terms and conditions.
Here is the list of private subscription stocks I have bought and closed out my position on, since December 2015.
2022 Symbolic Logic (was Evolving Systems), 3% loss
2022 Hewlett Packard Enterprise, 90% gain
2022 Xerox, 3% gain
2022 Pitney Bowes, 83% gain
2022 Universal Insurance, .02% gain
2022 Western Union, 3% gain
2022 Sonic Foundry, 1% gain
2022 BioDelivery Sciences, 54% gain-Buy-Out offer
2022 Lee Enterprises, 41% gain-Buy-Out offer (yes again)
2021 Lee Enterprises, 115% gain
2021 Leaf Group, 84% gain-Buy-Out
2021 Evolving Systems, 222% gain
2021 DHI Group, 49% gain
2021 Avid Technology, 143% gain
2021 Synacor, 10% loss-Buy-Out
2021 Extreme Networks, 52% gain
2021 Synchronoss, 77% gain
2021 Accuray, 62% gain
2021 Alphatec, 96% gain
2020 ZAGG 43% loss-Buy-Out
2020 Alaska Comm. 46% gain-Buy-Out (again)
2020 MIX Telegraphics, 27% gain
2020 QUAD Graphics, 3% gain
2020 VOXX, 1% gain
2020 Alaska Comm. 46% gain
2020 Cutera, 31% gain
2020 Aviat Networks, sold remaining 1/3 for a 7% gain (overall 15% gain)
2020 DHI .4% gain
2020 QUAD Graphics 54% gain
2020 Medical equipment company-sold 33% for a 61% gain
2019 EXFO, 1% gain
2019 PERI, 77% gain
2019 Quantum Corp, sold for 48% gain
2019 EXTR, 15% gain
2019 DHI Corp, 46% gain
2019 Medical device company, (sold 80%), 69% gain
2019 Lantronix, 41% gain
2019 PDLI, 15% gain
2018 The Rubicon Project 1% gain
2018 Otelco 116% gain.
2018 Global Ship Lease 4% gain, Buy-Out
2018 Telecom Services (57% sold) 3% gain
2018 Lantronix, 52% gain
2018 Ceragon Networks, 82% gain
2018 Aviat Newtowrks. (1/3 sold) 17% gain
2018 Pitney Bowes 31% gain
2018 Calix 1% gain
2018 Xerox 34% gain, Buy-Out
2018 RMG Networks-1% gain
2017 Telecommunications Co., 59% gain (partial sale)
2017 magicJack 17% gain, Buy-Out
2017 eGain 56% gain
2017 YUME 90% gain, Buy-Out
2017 MaxPoint Interactive 60% gain
2017 Shortel 24% gain, Buy-Out
2017 Tremor Video 25% gain
2017 MRV Communications 6% loss, Buy-Out
2017 Ceragon Networks 55% gain
2017 Angie’s List 60% gain, Buy-Out
2017 Lantronix 135% gain
2017 Syneron Medical 46% gain, Buy-Out
2017 RocketFuel 140% gain
2017 Conduent .1% gain
2017 Harmonic 74% gain
2016 Ceragon Networks 48% gain
2016 Alphatec 71% gain
2016 Universal Insurance 36% gain
2016 Mitel Networks 15% gain
2016 Avid Technology 50% gain
2016 Silicon Graphics 70% gain, Buy-Out
2016 Imatron 30% gain
2016 Harmonic 80% gain
2016 United Online 5% loss, Buy-Out