CSI Update-November 2020, Free Blog

Of our closed out positions on the Blog, since inception, we have had 71 winners, 19 losers for a 79% win-rate with an average gain of 35.7%.

We will continue to update on the remaining stock positions individually until they are all sold.

Both AVID and ATEC jumped in November while SYNC continued to STINK.

SYNC reported Q3 earnings. They seemed to be going in the right direction but my valuation fell to $2.27 from $2.59 as advertising revenues continued to be hurt by COVID. Revenues were $18.5 million compared to $23.7 million last year (excluding AT&T revenues). $4.2 million of the revenue decline was advertising. They had an adjusted loss of $2.3 million compared to $1 million last year.  Their recurring revenue was $8.1 million or about $32 million a year. SYNC’s entire market cap is $52 million. Recurring revenue multiples run anywhere from 3X to 15X.

ATEC reported Q3 earnings. As pre-announced, revenues soared to $40.1 million from $28.1 last year. They still lost $2 million of adjusted EBITDA compared to $3 million last year. They are projecting $143.5 million to $146 million of revenue for the year which means that Q4 should be in the $45 million range. My valuation rose to $5.74 from $3.92. While this has been trading way over my valuation (which I think is pretty conservative), it seems to have great momentum so I will hold for a while as next quarter looks to be pretty good also. While they only had a bit under $16 million of cash at the end of the quarter, this will increase by the recent stock offering to over $120 million, providing a long runway to continue to grow.

November 2020 Legacy Positions:

SYNC

Share cost $2.56

Current Price $1.46

Lifetime Gain (Loss) (43%)

YTD Loss 4%

Current Valuation $2.24

Price to Value ratio 64%

Prior Valuation $2.59

ATEC

Share cost $7.06

Current Price $10.50

Lifetime Gain 49%

YTD Gain 48%

Current Valuation $5.74

Price to Value ratio 183%

Prior Valuation $3.92

AVID

Share cost $8.35

Current Price $12.15

Lifetime gain 49%

YTD Gain 42%

Current Valuation $17.78

Price to Value ratio 68%

Prior Valuation $14.48 

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