After rolling up 12.7% of gains over the last month we were down .6% last week and are now up 6.0% for the year. Meanwhile, the DOW was up .10% and the NASDAQ was up .4%. For the year the DOW is down .9% and NASDAQ is now up 6.7%.
ARIS, EXTR, TSYS earnings last week.
Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand divided by their stock price.
Check this list:
CCUR | 44% |
SYNC | 63% |
PRSS | 56% |
MTSL | 35% |
MTSL, CKP, CRNT, ATEC, AVID, EXTR and SYNC, can still be bought.
Last week we went 4 stocks up, 6 down and 3 even. Since inception we are now 72 stocks up and 20 down for a 78.3% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions 65 have been winners and 14 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 35% average net gain per position.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
MER Telemanagement Systems. (NASDAQ-MTSL)-Recommended 9/22/2015)
Buy Price $1.25
Valuation $3.56
Closed up $.03 at $1.29
UP 3%
BUY
Checkpoint Systems Inc. (NYSE-CKP)-Recommended 9/16/2015)
Buy Price $7.79
Valuation $18.28
Closed down $.50 at $7.48
Q3 earnings due out Tuesday, November 4, 2015 after the market close.
Down 4%
BUY
Ceregon Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ-CRNT)-Recommended 8/20/2015)
Buy Price $1.46
Valuation $4.84
Closed down $.16 at $1.75
CRNT will announce Q3 2015 earnings on Monday, November 2nd before the market opens.
UP 20%
BUY
Avid Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ-AVID)-Recommended 1/20/2015)
Buy Price $10.25 (Was $14 before 8/15 double up at $8.08.
Valuation $22.24 (Was $22.59 $23.86, $28.10)
Closed down $.34 at $8.45
Q3 2015 earnings due out Thursday, November 5, 2015 after the market close.
AVID announced Q2 2015 earnings (quarter ended June 30, 2015) on 8/10/2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-announces-financial-results-second-203852725.html
Revenues were $110 million down from $125 million last year. They made a Non-GAAP profit of $.05 per share versus a $.15 profit last year. Our valuation moved down a bit to $22.24 from $22.59 last quarter. They upped their 2015 guidance to $74-$80 million of adjusted EBITDA from $72-$78 million. Also, while the debt for the acquisition of Orad was on the balance sheet at June 30, the revenues and profits were not. You would think that AVID lost money and lowered their guidance by 50% with the way the market reacted.
Down 18% BUY
Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ-ATEC)-Recommended 9/2/2014)
Buy Price $.59 ($1.56 before doubling up on 8/10/2015 at $.66 and adding $10,000 at $.34)
Valuation $2.54 (Was $2.61, $3.11, $2.95, $3.00)
Closed up $.03 at $.35
ATEC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on August 4, 2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphatec-holdings-announces-second-quarter-200500460.html
No one liked them as the stock plummeted more than 50%. Revenues were $46.6 million ($50.2 million in constant currency) compared to $53.2 million last year. EBITDA was down 50% from $7.7 to $3.8 million. Our valuation came in at $2.54 compared to the previous $2.61. We are cutting ATEC to a HOLD until they can reverse the negative trends in revenue, gross margin and EBITDA.
Down 41% BUY
CafePress, Inc. Inc. (NASDAQ-PRSS)-Recommended 5/19/2014)
Buy Price $4.01 (Was $5.40 before adding $10,000 at $3.19 on 3/2/2015)
Valuation $9.09 (Was $12.50, $11.17, $12.51, $11.27)
Closed unchanged at $4.71
Q3 2015 earnings due out Thursday, November 12, 2015 after the market close.
PRSS announced Q2 2015 (6/30/2015) earnings on 8/14/2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cafepress-reports-results-second-quarter-201500378.html
Not bad. They continue to slim down the business to its core. They are divesting their EZ print business now also. Revenues fell to $21.8 million from $29.1 million last year, but their loss from operations declined to $1.8 million from $4.4 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA was positive $.7 million versus negative $1.8 million last year. Cash fell to $46 million ($2.64 a share from $56 million due to working capital changes and the repurchase of $2.3 million worth of stock. Our valuation was $8.95 down a tad from $9.09 last quarter.
UP 17% HOLD
Extreme Networks, Inc. Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)
Buy Price $3.43 (was $3.95 before we added another $10,000)
NEW Valuation $7.69, (Was $9.47, $6.99, $9.34, $8.24, $9.68, $8.52)
Closed unchanged at $3.59
Extreme announced Q1 2016 (September 30, 2015) on October 29, 2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/extreme-networks-reports-first-quarter-200500547.html
Revenues came in at $124.9 compared to $137.0 and they made $.07 a share versus a loss of $.01 a share last year on a Non-GAAP basis. Our valuation came in at $7.69 a share versus $8.24 last year but better than our estimate of $7.45 for this quarter. Based on their guidance for next quarter our valuation should go up. Despite beating guidance for the quarter and raising guidance for next quarter the stock did nothing, so we are changing this to a BUY. .
UP 5%, BUY
Synacor Inc. (NASDAQ-SYNC)-Recommended 12/17/2013)
Buy Price $2.56
Valuation $5.71 (Was $6.61, $5.58, $5.21, $5.44, $6.67, $6.39)’
Closed unchanged at $1.33
SYNC has closed the acquisition of Zimbra.
SYNC announced Q2 2015 (June 30, 2015) earnings on 8/4/2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-gains-ebitda-momentum-revenue-200100723.html
Revenues were $24.7 million up slightly from $24.2 million the prior year. They had a Non-GAAP loss of about $.3 million compared to a loss of $1 million last year. SYNC’s valuation fell from last quarter to $5.29, but was a tad higher than last years $5.21.
Down 48%. BUY
Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-DXM)-Recommended 5/10/2013)
Buy Price 6.46 (Was $15.14 before adding $10,000 on 3/30/2015)
Valuation $21.00 (Was $31.00, $31.00, $34.00, $37.98, $34.36, $31.50, $24.25)
Closed up $.01 at $.22
DEX and it’s creditors are in the skirmish stage of their war to restructure their crushing debt load. The good news is that DEX started early. They decided not to pay an interest payment that was due September 30 (which they announced) and now the creditors want to talk.
Q2, 2015 earnings were announced August 6, 2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dex-media-announces-second-quarter-110000263.html
Revenues were $387 million, down from $474 million last year and down from $406 million last quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $159 million up from $143 million last quarter and down from $176 million last year. Overall not a great quarter. For the year they are guiding to revenue of about $1.5 billion and $525 million of EBITDA. In their original projection for 2015 they were looking at revenue of $2.077 billion and EBITDA of $782 million. Clearly they are not making their projections. Net debt was $2.144 (their original projection was to end 2015 with $2.004 billion of debt—a goal they will likely make. Based on this performance we have lowered our valuation to $4.71 a share. DEXM is a HOLD
DEX announced a major restructuring on December 11, 2014. They expect to incur
$70-$100 million of expenses to achieve $150 million of ongoing expense savings with $110 million of that coming in 2015. They expect to begin deleveraging their balance sheet (meaning Net Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio) in 2016. No question that’s what they need to do.
Down 97% HOLD
Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)
Buy Price $3.95 ($ 5.85, $6.20 before 12/15/2014 and 2/14/2014 $10,000 adders)
Valuation $6.20 (Was $6.10, $5.85, $5.98 $7.55, $8.75, $8.80, $1.83, $9.15, $10.95, $11.75, $12.80, $11.20)
Closed down $.09 at $1.13
BLIN announced Q3 2015 earnings (quarter ended June 30, 2015) on 8/14/2015. Revenues were $4.9 million down from $6.2 million last year but up from $4.8 million last quarter. They lost $.20 per share on a Non-GAAP basis compared to $.24 last year. Our valuation rose to $6.20 up from $6.10 last quarter on better margins. Overall, while margins and EBITDA (adjusted) improved it was pretty much a nothing quarter. Have to wait longer here as they eke out an existence and hopefully get this little boat moving in the right direction. HOLD
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bridgeline-digital-announces-financial-results-120000429.html
Down 71%, HOLD
Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)
Buy Price- $1.37
NEW Valuation $7.01 (Was $5.78, $5.43, $6.55, $6.88, $6.12, $5.99, $5.32, $6.81, $6.28, $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)
Closed up $.05 at $4.09
Q3 2015 earnings were announced on, October 29, 2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/telecommunication-systems-reports-third-quarter-200500194.html
Revenues were $101.1 million, up from $95.3 million last year and adjusted EPS was $.12 compared to $.05 last year. Overall a very nice quarter-again. Our valuation jumped to $7.01 $ up from $6.88 last year and up from $5.78 last quarter.
We are now waiting on the outcome of their “strategic alternatives” investigation with Lazard. This is still a HOLD.
UP 199%, HOLD
Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)
Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
Valuation $11.49 (was $16.38, $13.07, $14.80, $17.72, $15.01, $15.10, $14.55, $14.77, $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed down $.08 at $6.29 (including $1.20 of dividends)
Pays $.48 annual dividend.
Q1 2016 earnings due out Tuesday, November 3, 2015 after the market close.
Q4 2015 (6/30/2015) earnings were released on 8/25/2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/concurrent-reports-fourth-quarter-fiscal-200100937.html
Dissappointing. Revenues fell to $13.8 million from $17.8 million last year and they lost $993,000 pre-tax compared to a profit of $2,032,000 last year. They blamed consolidation in the service provider sector for the sales decline and indicated it won’t get better in 2015. It is obvious that CCUR should not be a stand alone company. We think it is time to get this sold.
Our valuation plummeted to $11.49 from $16.38 last quarter. Cash per share fell to $2.80 , still over 50% of the market cap. We will keep a HOLD on CCUR until we see what the new CEO can do and they get revenue growth back. We continue to collect the 10% dividend.
UP 37%, HOLD
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
NEW Valuation $5.95 (was $6.66, $6.47, $5.96, $6.02, $5.67, $5.57, $5.70, $6.71, $6.41, $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $3.69 down $.03.
Q4 2015 (quarter ended 7/31/2015) were announced on Wednesday, October 28th.
Another nice quarter operationally. Revenues were up 23% from last year at $10.9 million and they made $.02 a share. Revenues cracked $40 million for the year and they made $.07 a share.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ari-network-services-inc-announces-200400126.html
While all was good, our valuation fell a bit to $5.95 due to shares outstanding rising to just over 17 million, but only included a partial quarter from their latest acquisition. Hopefully, a full quarter from this acquisition will offset the additional shares.
UP 129%, HOLD