Cheap Stocks, 5/22/2015 Update

We were down again last week -.8%. as BLIN, EXM and CTIG contributed almost all of the loss,  and we are down 8.8% for the year. We think we may have figured out what we are doing wring—lack of velocity, meaning we are holding our stocks too long. We squandered large gains in CTIG and MRVC and are not turning our portfolio fast enough. We will work harder to correct this going forward. Meanwhile, the DOW was down .2% and the NASDAQ was up .9%. For the year the DOW is up 2.3% and NASDAQ is up 7.5%.

No earnings last week.

Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand divided by their stock price.

Check this list:

UNTD 34%
CCUR 38%
SIGM 33%
MRVC 18%
SYNC 46%
CTIG 43%
PRSS 75%

ATEC, PRSS and SYNC,  can still be bought.

Last week we went 6 stocks up and 9 down. Since inception we are now 68 stocks up and 20 down for a 77.3% winning percentage (80% is our target win %).  Of our closed-out positions 60 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 35% average net gain per position.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

Avid Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ-AVID)-Recommended 1/20/2015)

Buy Price $14.00

Valuation $22.59 (Was $23.86, $28.10)

Closed up $.73 at $17.04

AVID announced Q1 2015 earnings (quarter ended March 31, 2015) on May 7, 2015. Revenues were $120 million down from $135 million last year. They made a Non-GAAP profit of $.17 per share versus a $.38 profit last year.  Our valuation slipped to $22.59 from $23.86 last quarter. They reaffirmed their 2015 guidance of $72-$78 million of adjusted EBITDA. We are keeping this as a BUY.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-announces-financial-results-first-201100764.html

UP 22% HOLD

Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ-ATEC)-Recommended 9/2/2014)

Buy Price $1.56

Valuation $3.11 (Was $2.95, $3.00)

Closed down $.01 at $1.36

ATEC announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on April 30, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphatec-holdings-announces-first-quarter-200500986.html

Revenues were $48.6 million compared to $49.2 million last year as currency headwinds knocked a 5% revenue gain into a small loss. Non-GAAP EPS was a loss of $.03 compared to a profit of $.01 last year. More significantly, EBITDA was up from $.15 million to $5.3 million. ATEC announced  product launches in the U.S. and Japan during the quarter. From their press release:

“The Company reiterates full year 2015 constant currency revenue growth guidance of approximately 4% to 7% over 2014, which represents a range of revenue in constant currency of $215 million to $222 million. Additionally, the Company reaffirms guidance expectations for annual adjusted EBITDA of $34 million to $37 million in 2015, representing a range of approximately 10% to 20% growth over 2014”.

Our valuation came in at $2.61 compared to the previous $3.11 and $2.58 a year ago.

Down 13% BUY

CafePress, Inc.  Inc. (NASDAQ-PRSS)-Recommended 5/19/2014)

Buy Price $4.01 (Was $5.40 before adding $10,000 at $3.19 on 3/2/2015)

Valuation $9.09 (Was $12.50, $11.17, $12.51, $11.27)

Closed down $.03 at $4.27

PRSS announced Q1 2015 (3/31/2015) earnings on 5/12/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cafepress-reports-first-quarter-2015-201500608.html

Again, this is a complex period for the company with the recent divestitures of two of their operating entities. We had estimated a valuation of $12.51 based on their reported annual results, but it came in at $9.09 a share—which is still more than double the current price. Cash from the divestitures ballooned the balance to $51.4 million or $3.21 a share. Operating performance fell short though. Revenues were $27.4 versus $30.9 million last year. On a Non-GAAP basis they lost$ 2 million versus a loss of $3.1 million last year from continuing operations. We continue to rate PRSS a BUY.

From their press release:

“We are taking proactive steps toward optimizing our business and operating as a leaner company focused on generating higher quality revenues. We believe that our data-driven approach to understanding opportunities with customers and partners will result in an increased ability to capture the very substantial opportunities within the personalized e-commerce market. We still have substantial work ahead of us as we continue to look for operational efficiencies while keeping a sharp focus on expense management. While these strategic moves may create near term pressure on revenue, we are extremely excited by the long-term prospects for CafePress,” concluded Mr. Durham.

UP 7% BUY

Extreme Networks, Inc.  Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)

Buy Price $3.43 (was $3.95 before we added another $10,000)

Valuation $6.99, (Was $9.34, $8.24, $9.68, $8.52)

Closed down $.04 at $2.62

Extreme announced Q3 2015 (March 31, 2015) on May 6, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/extreme-networks-reports-third-quarter-200200632.html

While revenues came in a bit higher than their earnings warning a few weeks ago at $120.4 million, they were down from $143.7 last year and they lost $7.9 million on a Non-GAAP basis. This is about what we expected. Our valuation came in at $6.99 a share versus our projected $7.05 but well below our previous valuation of $9.34. This is a HOLD, hovering on a Sell. They need to cut expenses and/or sell the company.

Down 24%, HOLD

United Online Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)

Buy Price $10.28

Valuation $31.02 (Was $34.65, $33.50 $35.84, $32.35, $27.86)

Closed down $.03 at $16.19

UNTD announced Q1, 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on May 5, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-online-reports-first-quarter-200100492.html

Revenues were $49.9 million, down from $55.4 million last year, and down from $54.4 million last quarter.  They lost $.9 million versus a $10.4 million loss last year. Gross margin held steady at 65%. Our valuation was $31.02 down from $34.65 last quarter. Cash per share was $5.45 (compared to $5.53 last quarter). Guidance for next quarter is $48.5-$51.5 million in revenue and bottom line profit of between a $0 million and $2.0 million.

OIBTDA (which they use instead of EBITDA) was $5.9 million compared to $3.2 million last year. UNTD continues to generate cash and trades at substantial discount to our valuation. This is now a HOLD as we are not seeing the turnaround in revenues we were hoping for.

Up 58% HOLD

Synacor Inc. (NASDAQ-SYNC)-Recommended 12/17/2013)

Buy Price $2.56

Valuation $5.71 (Was $6.61, $5.58, $5.21, $5.44, $6.67, $6.39)’

Closed up $.08 at $1.94

SYNC announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on April 30, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-beats-revenue-adjusted-ebitda-200100823.html

Revenues were $26.7 million up 6% from $25.2 million the prior year.  They had a Non-GAAP Profit of about $330,000 million compared to breakeven last year. SYNC’s valuation fell from last quarter’s inflated $6.61 to $5.71, but was still higher than last years $5.44. From their press release:

  • Q2 2015 Guidance: Revenue for the second quarter of 2015 is projected to be in the range of $24.0 million to $25.5 million. For the second quarter of 2015, the company expects to report adjusted EBITDA of $0.2 million to $1.2 million.
  • Fiscal 2015 Guidance: Revenue for the full year of 2015 is projected to be in the range of $97.0 million to $102.0 million. For the full year of 2015, the company expects to report adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 million to $4.0 million.

Well the activist shareholder group lost on their bid to start changing out the Board of Directors—but not by much. Maybe this close call has lit a fire under SYNC management and Board—finally. Management crowed about how they won, but I have never seen so many shares not voted for the incumbent Board.

Down 24%. BUY

Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-DXM)-Recommended 5/10/2013)

Buy Price 6.46 ( Was $15.14 before adding $10,000 on 3/30/2015)

Valuation $21.00 (Was $31.00, $31.00, $34.00, $37.98, $34.36, $31.50, $24.25)

Closed down $.41 at $05

DXM announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) on May 7, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dex-media-announces-first-quarter-110000895.html

Revenues were $406 million, down  from $456 million last year and down from $433 million last quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $143 million down from $173 million last quarter and down from $197 million last year. Overall not a great quarter. Our valuation fell to $21 and the market assumed it will file bankruptcy as the market cap fell to $17 million.

DEXM is a HOLD despite trading at 5% of our valuation.

DEX announced a major restructuring  on December 11, 2014. They expect to incur

$70-$100 million of expenses to achieve $150 million of ongoing expense savings with $110 million of that coming in 2015. They expect to begin deleveraging their balance sheet (meaning Net Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio) in 2016. No question that’s what they need to do.

Down 85% HOLD

Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)

Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)

Valuation $1.83 (Was $2.83, $2.85, $3.39, $3.25, $3.42, $4.64, $4.86, $4.00)

Closed down $.06 at $.72

Third quarter (1/31/2015) earnings announced on February 24, 2015. Ouch!

Revenues were $5.7 million down from $7.9 million last year and down from $6.7 million last quarter. They lost $.06 on a GAAP basis compared to a $.05 loss last year.  On a Non-GAAP basis they lost $.04 a share versus a profit of $.02 last year. Our valuation plunged to $1.83 from $2.83 last quarter. Net debt declined a bit to $7.6 million from $8.7 million last quarter and declined from $11.3 million a year ago. It will be a longer wait to see some action here. Still trading at less than 50% of our valuation but they need to get this company moving in the right direction-soon, or sell it.

Down 34%, HOLD

Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)

Buy Price $3.95 ($ 5.85, $6.20 before 12/15/2014 and 2/14/2014 $10,000 adders)

Valuation $5.85 (Was $7.55, $8.75, $8.80, $1.83, $9.15, $10.95, $11.75, $12.80, $11.20)

Closed down $.41 at $1.62

BLIN announced Q2 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on May 14, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bridgeline-digital-announces-financial-results-202247641.html

Another very disappointing quarter. Revenues fell to $4.8 million from $5.3 million last year. They lost $2.1 million compared to $2.3 million last year, showing the improvement in spending as a result of their cost curtailment efforts. On a Non-GAAP basis they lost $1.2 million versus $1.3 million last year. Our valuation fell to $5.85 (adjusted for the 5 for 1 split in May 2015, down from $7.53 last quarter and $8.82 last year.

.Down 59%, HOLD

Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)

Buy Price- $1.37

Valuation $5.43 (Was $6.55, $6.88, $6.12, $5.99, $5.32, $6.81, $6.28, $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)

Closed up $.02 at $3.26

In addition to earnings in April, Cannell Capital issued a press release with the first 6 of 50 pages criticizing TSYS for the destruction of value caused by the current board of directors and management. Cannell also disclosed that they sold TSYS shares from 4/8/2015 to 4/16/2015 reducing their stake to 5.59% from 6.48% and that they had dissolved their joint filing agreement with several other individuals.

TSYS announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on April 30,2015. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/telecommunication-systems-reports-first-quarter-200500722.html

Revenues were $81.9 million, down from $85.1 million last year and adjusted EPS was $.04 the same as last year. Overall an OK quarter-again. Our valuation was $5.43 down from $5.99 last year and $6.55 last quarter.

They also reached a settlement with Becker Drapkin in February. BD gets two Board seats in exchange for not buying more than 12% of TSYS stock prior to 12/31/2016.

Becker Drapkin filed a 13D on November 24, 2014 disclosing a 6.7% stake. They had the standard 13D language about their intentions to discuss various options with management. Good news that someone is paying attention to this undervalued company.

We will continue to hold TSYS despite our over 100% gain. Maybe this will turn into another MITL and be trading at $10+ in the next year. .

UP 138%, HOLD

MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)-Recommended 10//10/2011

Valuation $23.19 (Was $24.44, $25.52, $24.58, $23.19, $25.50, $28.98, $24.01 $23.06, $27.15, $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)

Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)

Closed at $9.67 up $.02

MRVC announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on May 7, 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mrv-reports-first-quarter-2015-200100767.html

Revenues were $38.8 million down from $42.3 million last year. They stated that revenues would have been flat, but that foreign currency impacts caused the decline.

They lost $.5 million versus a $3.4 million loss last year. Net cash per share fell from last quarters $2.34 to $1.73. Our valuation was $23.19 down from $24.44 last quarter. They spent $3.6 million buying 357,000 shares in their share buyback program. Again, not sure this is the best use of their cash in that it just makes their loss per share bigger. They reported a per share loss of $.15 this quarter versus a loss of $.58 last year.

This is still a HOLD as sales are at best flat on a constant exchange rate basis and not growing. They did substantially reduce their loss this quarter, but not enough to get us to buy more.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mrv-reports-first-quarter-2015-200100767.html

Up 12%  HOLD

Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)

Buy Price-$8.49

Valuation $12.14 (Was $12.17, $9.60, $8.24, $9.16, $12.30, $11.86, $8.24, $13.05, $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)

Closed down $.38 at $8.37

SIGM announced Q4 2015 earnings (quarter ended January 31, 2015)  on April 1, 2015.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sigma-designs-inc-reports-financial-201500975.html

Revenues were $54.8 million up 42% from $38.5 million last year. GAAP net loss was $.10 a share, compared to a profit of $.04 per share last year (all from a tax credit). Non-GAAP profit was $.04 per share compared to a $.13 loss last year.  Our valuation was $12.14 down from $12.17 last quarter. Net cash per share was $2.58.

Guidance for next quarter looks much the same as this just reported quarter, but they gave indications that recent design wins in the telco sector should kick in later this year. We think there is still some upside here if they can demonstrate some revenue/profit growth later this year as they hinted.

Down 1%, HOLD

Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)

Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)

Valuation $16.38 (was $13.07, $14.80, $17.72, $15.01, $15.10,  $14.55, $14.77, $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)

Closed up $.16 at $7.68 (including $1.20 of dividends)

Pays $.48 annual dividend

CCUR announced Q3 2015 (December 31, 2014) earnings on April 28,2015. Revenues were $17.1 million, down 7% from $18.3 million last year but up from $16 million last quarter. They made $.780,000 profit versus a loss of $.6 million last quarter and a $1.1 million profit last year. Gross margin held steady at 59%. Our valuation jumped back up to $16.38 from $13.07 last quarter. Cash per share rose  to $2.93 or 49% of the market cap. We will keep a HOLD on CCUR until we see what the new CEO can do and they get revenue growth back. We continue to collect the 7% dividend.

UP 68%, HOLD

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)

Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),

Valuation $6.47 (was $5.96, $6.02, $5.67, $5.57, $5.70, $6.71, $6.41, $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)

Closed at $3.20, up $.14.

In addition to the 1.5 million share offering Wynnefield Capital has been selling shares-about 250,000 from 3/31/2015 to 5/12/2015 at prices from $3.20 to $3.38. They still have 992,000 shares or 6.9% of ARI. Assuming they are getting out, this will keep pressure on the price for a while.

ARI announced on May 7, 2015 that they had priced a 1.53 million share offering for expected net proceeds of about $4.7 million which they will use to pay off the $1.75 of debt they incurred on their recent acquisition of TASCO and for future acquisitions.

They also announced preliminary Q3 2015 results. Revenues are expected to be between $10.1 and $10.3 million and EPS is expected to be $.01 to $.02—about the same as last quarter. We think this stock offering explains the recent price weakness in the stock

ARI announced another acquisition last week. No financial details were disclosed.

ARI announced Q2 2015 earnings (quarter ended January 31, 2015) on March 5th. Revenues were $10.1 million up a whopping 25% over last year. They made a profit of $.02 per share versus a $.03 loss last year.  Our valuation rose to $6.47 up from $5.96 last quarter. Recurring revenue was $9.1 million or 90% of total revenue. All in all, a very nice quarter.

They are doing a good job positioning the company to be acquired. Hopefully this will soon happen with a $5+ price like we got for XRS in September 2014.

UP 99%, HOLD, Still a large valuation gap here and the Company is executing well.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)

Buy price $.27 ask,

NEW Valuation $1.21 (Was $1.39, $1.34, $1.22, $.99, $1.02, $1.05,  $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23,  $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)

Ask price $.34 closed at $.31

CTIG announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on 5/14/2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cti-group-reports-2015-first-203932720.html

After the huge Q4 2014 quarter this quarter’s results were more in-line with their previous run-rate. Revenues were $4.1 million, compared to $3.95 million in 2014. They also made $10,000 for the quarter.

Our valuation fell a bit to $1.21 a share, down from $1.39 last quarter, but up 20% from $.99 last year. We will continue to HOLD CTIG.

Still way undervalued, but no light as to when or how this will ever be properly valued.

John Birbeck announced his departure in October 2014. He was one of the group trying to take CTIG private for $.40 a share. Birbeck will remain a Director of the company. He owns about 7% of CTIG (about 2.3 million shares).

They need to get an investment banker and sell the company. Probably get at least $.75 a share for it from someone.

UP 26%. HOLD

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