Another down week. We were down 2.5% last week and are down 4.8% for the year. Meanwhile, the DOW was down .3% and the NASDAQ was down 1.7%. For the year the DOW is up 1.1% and NASDAQ is up 5.7%.
CCUR, SYNC, TSYS and ATEC earnings last week.
Some of our stocks are just stupid cheap—compared to their net cash on hand divided by their stock price.
Check this list:
| UNTD | 36% |
| CCUR | 40% |
| SIGM | 34% |
| MRVC | 27% |
| SYNC | 43% |
| CTIG | 30% |
| PRSS | 42% |
AVID, ATEC, PRSS, SYNC, and DXM can still be bought.
Last week we went 5 stocks up, 9 down and 1 even. Since inception we are now 67 stocks up and 21 down for a 76.1% winning percentage (80% is our target win %). Of our closed-out positions 60 have been winners and 13 have been losers for an 82% win percentage and a 35% average net gain per position.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
Avid Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ-AVID)-Recommended 1/20/2015)
Buy Price $14.00
Valuation $23.86 (Was $28.10)
Closed up $.07 at $16.22
Q1 2015 earnings due out Thursday, May 7th, after the market close.
AVID announced Q4 (12/31/2014) earnings on March 16, 2015. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-announces-fourth-quarter-full-212308642.html
We thought they were just fine, but the market was initially disappointed as the stock fell as low as $12.02. But the stock rebounded and ended the week up 3%. Our valuation fell to $23.86, as seasonality and currency headwinds affected results. We are not worried as AVID is a technology leader and solid company.
UP 15% BUY
Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ-ATEC)-Recommended 9/2/2014)
Buy Price $1.56
Valuation $3.11 (Was $2.95, $3.00)
Closed up $.01 at $1.42
ATEC announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on April 30, 2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphatec-holdings-announces-first-quarter-200500986.html
Revenues were $48.6 million compared to $49.2 million last year as currency headwinds knocked a 5% revenue gain into a small loss. Non-GAAP EPS was a loss of $.03 compared to a profit of $.01 last year. More significantly, EBITDA was up from $.15 million to $5.3 million. ATEC announced product launches in the U.S. and Japan during the quarter. From their press release:
“The Company reiterates full year 2015 constant currency revenue growth guidance of approximately 4% to 7% over 2014, which represents a range of revenue in constant currency of $215 million to $222 million. Additionally, the Company reaffirms guidance expectations for annual adjusted EBITDA of $34 million to $37 million in 2015, representing a range of approximately 10% to 20% growth over 2014”.
Our valuation came in at $2.61 compared to the previous $3.11 and $2.58 a year ago.
Down 9% BUY
CafePress, Inc. Inc. (NASDAQ-PRSS)-Recommended 5/19/2014)
Buy Price $4.01 (Was $5.40 before adding $10,000 at $3.19 on 3/2/2015)
Valuation $12.50 (Was $11.17, $12.51, $11.27)
Closed unchanged at $3.98
Boy, where do we start here. PRSS announced Q4 2014 earnings on February 25, 2015. Rather than focus on the actual results, because they include the results of the 2 divisions they are selling, we will focus on what we think the rest of 2015 looks like on a pro-forma basis (our best guess from the press release and conference call).
The sales of their two divisions will result in approximately $40 million of cash added to the $30 million or so at 12/31/2014. This will be just under $4 a share in net cash. The stock is trading below $4. The divisional sales will result in the loss of 35% of their revenues which were $230 million. So call it $150 million after the divestures. They had about $2.5 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2014 and from their conference call will lose some EBITDA as a result of the sales. So they may lose $1 million or so, on the EBITDA level in 2015. This does not concern us as that is nothing compared to $70 million in cash.
Looking at all this our valuation on a pro-forma basis comes in about $12.50 a share, and the company is much more focused on its’ core business, has its’ original management back that know how to run this business and are looking to build shareholder value.
Lloyd Miller filed a Form 13G on October 24, 2014 disclosing a 5.1% (887,000 shares) stake in PRSS..
Down 1% BUY
Extreme Networks, Inc. Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)
Buy Price $3.43 (was $3.95 before we added another $10,000)
Valuation $9.34, (Was $8.24, $9.68, $8.52)
Closed down $.01 at $2.54
Ugg. EXTR announced in April that they will significantly miss their Q3 numbers-revenues by about 15%. Based on the numbers they reported we think our valuation will plummet to about $7.00 a share. Still almost 3X the current price, but heading in the wrong direction. We are changing this to a HOLD.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/extreme-networks-reports-preliminary-unaudited-200200643.html
EXTR announced Q2, 2015 (December 31, 2014) earnings on January 28, 2015. Revenues were $147.2 million, up from $146.5 million last year. They made $4.7 million versus a $14.1 million profit last year on a Non-GAAP basis. Gross margin held steady at over 50%. Our valuation was $9.34 up from $8.34 last quarter. Cash per share was $.20 (compared to negative $.17 last quarter). Guidance for next quarter is a tepid $130-$140 million in revenue and bottom line of between a loss of $3.1 million and a profit of $1.8 million which will result in a valuation of about $8.40 a share (all Non-GAAP numbers). Hopefully they can beat this.
Down 26%, HOLD
United Online Inc. (NASDAQ-UNTD)-Recommended 3/12/2014)
Buy Price $10.28
Valuation $34.65 (Was $33.50 $35.84, $32.35, $27.86)
Closed down $2.03 at $15.44
Q1 2015 earnings due out Tuesday, May 5th after the market close.
UNTD announced Q4, 2014 (December 31, 2014) earnings after the close on February 18, 2015. Revenues were $54.4 million, down from $62.6 million last year, but up from $52.9 million last quarter. They made $2.3 million before tax versus an $8 million loss before taxes last year. Gross margin held steady at 68%. Our valuation was $34.65 up from $33.50 last quarter. Cash per share was $5.53 (compared to $5.38 last quarter). Guidance for next quarter is $47.5-$50.5 million in revenue and bottom line of between a loss of $.8 million and a profit of $2.8 million.
OIBTDA (which they use instead of EBITDA) was $11.4 million compared to $12.6 million last year.
Up 50% HOLD
Synacor Inc. (NASDAQ-SYNC)-Recommended 12/17/2013)
Buy Price $2.56
NEW Valuation $5.71 (Was $6.61, $5.58, $5.21, $5.44, $6.67, $6.39)’
Closed down $.37 at $2.05
SYNC announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings ON April 30, 2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/synacor-beats-revenue-adjusted-ebitda-200100823.html
Revenues were $26.7 million up 6% from $25.2 million the prior year. They had a Non-GAAP Profit of about $330,000 million compared to breakeven last year. SYNC’s valuation fell from last quarter’s inflated $6.61 to $5.71, but was still higher than last years $5.44. From their press release:
- Q2 2015 Guidance: Revenue for the second quarter of 2015 is projected to be in the range of $24.0 million to $25.5 million. For the second quarter of 2015, the company expects to report adjusted EBITDA of $0.2 million to $1.2 million.
- Fiscal 2015 Guidance: Revenue for the full year of 2015 is projected to be in the range of $97.0 million to $102.0 million. For the full year of 2015, the company expects to report adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 million to $4.0 million.
Well the activist shareholder group lost on their bid to start changing out the Board of Directors—but not by much. Maybe this close call has lit a fire under SYNC management and Board—finally.
Down 20%. BUY
Dex Media Inc. (NASDAQ-DXM)-Recommended 5/10/2013)
Buy Price 6.46 ( Was $15.14 before adding $10,000 on 3/30/2015)
Valuation $31.00 (Was $31.00, $34.00, $37.98, $34.36, $31.50, $24.25)
Closed down $.56 at $2.82
DXM announced Q4 2014 (December 31, 2014) earnings on March 12th, 2015. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dex-media-announces-fourth-quarter-110000000.html Revenues were $433 million, up from $429 million last year and down from $454 million last quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $173 million up from $167 million last quarter and down from $210 million last year. Overall an OK quarter. Our valuation stayed at $31.
Comparing the actual 2014 results to their original merger projections in 2012, as expected, they missed their revenue and EBITDA targets by $324 million and $121 million respectively. But more importantly they exceeded their debt reduction target by $200 million. They paid down another $73 million in net debt in Q4. We still think this is a BUY, albeit a risky stock due to the high debt levels and declining print advertising business.
DEX announced a major restructuring on December 11, 2014. They expect to incur
$70-$100 million of expenses to achieve $150 million of ongoing expense savings with $110 million of that coming in 2015. They expect to begin deleveraging their balance sheet (meaning Net Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio) in 2016. No question that’s what they need to do.
Down 56% BUY
Daegis Inc. (NASDAQ-DAEG)-Recommended 11/30/2012)
Buy Price $1.09 (Was $1.20 before we doubled up)
Valuation $1.83 (Was $2.83, $2.85, $3.39, $3.25, $3.42, $4.64, $4.86, $4.00)
Closed down $.04 at $.74
Second quarter (10/31/2014) earnings announced on November 20th. Ouch!
Revenues were $5.7 million down from $7.9 million last year and down from $6.7 million last quarter. They lost $.06 on a GAAP basis compared to a $.05 loss last year. On a Non-GAAP basis they lost $.04 a share versus a profit of $.02 last year. Our valuation plunged to $1.83 from $2.83 last quarter. Net debt declined a bit to $7.6 million from $8.7 million last quarter and declined from $11.3 million a year ago. It will be a longer wait to see some action here. Still trading at less than 50% of our valuation but they need to get this company moving in the right direction-soon, or sell it.
Norm Pessin filed a 13D on November 27, 2013 disclosing a 6.2% stake and upped it to 12.2% in December 2013.
Down 32%, HOLD
Bridgeline Digital Inc. (NASDAQ-BLIN)-Recommended 8/24/2012)
Buy Price $.79 ($ 1.17, $1.24 before 12/15/2014 and 2/14/2014 $10,000 adders)
Valuation $1.17 (Was $1.51, $1.75, $1.76, $1.83, $1.61, $2.19, $2.35, $2.56, $2.24)
Closed down $.01 at $.40
A five for 1 stock split coming, which was enough to offset the $1.8 million deal they signed in March.
BLIN announced earnings on February 12, 2015 for Q4 2014. Not good. Revenues were down to $5 million from $6.5 million last year. They lost $2.1 million versus $.8 million last year. Looks like they were too occupied with their expense reductions in Q4.They did announce that they did not anticipate any more equity issuance in 2015, which is a good step. They reaffirmed their $800,000 a quarter expense reduction in 2015 also. All our hope is they can execute going forward on their record backlog going into 2015. Our valuation dropped to $1.17, still more than double the current trading price, but about 50% from where we started here. This is now a Hold—they need to show progress.
Down 49%, HOLD
Telecommunications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ-TSYS)-Recommended 6/14/2012)
Buy Price- $1.37
NEW Valuation $5.43 (Was $6.55, $6.88, $6.12, $5.99, $5.32, $6.81, $6.28, $4.89, $6.02, $6.72, $5.49)
Closed down $.15 at $3.23
In addition to earnings last week, Cannell Capital issued a press release with the first 6 of 50 pages criticizing TSYS for the destruction of value caused by the current board of directors and management. Cannell also disclosed that they sold TSYS shares from 4/8/2015 to 4/16/2015 reducing their stake to 5.59% from 6.48% and that they had dissolved their joint filing agreement with several other individuals.
TSYS announced Q1 2015 (March 31, 2015) earnings on April 30,2015 night.http://finance.yahoo.com/news/telecommunication-systems-reports-first-quarter-200500722.html
Revenues were $81.9 million, down from $85.1 million last year and adjusted EPS was $.04 the same as last year. Overall an OK quarter-again. Our valuation was $5.43 down from $5.99 last year and $6.55 last quarter.
They also reached a settlement with Becker Drapkin in February. BD gets two Board seats in exchange for not buying more than 12% of TSYS stock prior to 12/31/2016.
Becker Drapkin filed a 13D on November 24, 2014 disclosing a 6.7% stake. They had the standard 13D language about their intentions to discuss various options with management. Good news that someone is paying attention to this undervalued company.
We will continue to hold TSYS despite our over 100% gain. Maybe this will turn into another MITL and be trading at $10+ in the next year. .
UP 136%, HOLD
MRV Communications (Pink Sheets-MRVC.pk)-Recommended 10//10/2011
Valuation $24.44 (Was $25.52, $24.58, $23.19, $25.50, $28.98, $24.01 $23.06, $27.15, $31.80, $34.60, $28.60, $41.20, $43.20 (after $9.50, $6.00 and $1.40 special dividends), $52.40, $55.80)
Buy Price October 7, 2011- $8.50 ($25.40 before special dividends)
Closed at $8.74 up $.65
MRVC announced Q4 2014 (December 31, 2014) earnings on March 10, 2015. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mrv-reports-fourth-quarter-full-200500230.html Revenues were $43.4 million, up $200,000 from last quarter but down 14% from $50.7 million last year. They lost $2 million pre-tax versus a $.174 million loss last year. Net cash per share fell from last quarters $2.63 to $2.34 last quarter Our valuation was $24.44 down from $25.52 last quarter. They spent $3.2 million buying 307,000- shares in their share buyback program. Again, not sure this is the best use of their cash in that it just makes their loss per share bigger.
MRVC is trading at 32% of our valuation, but, we are moving this to a HOLD as sales growth has slowed, and losses have risen. Still cheap, but we are a bit wary.
Up 2% HOLD
Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ-SIGM)-Recommended 7/11/2011)
Buy Price-$8.49
Valuation $12.14 (Was $12.17, $9.60, $8.24, $9.16, $12.30, $11.86, $8.24, $13.05, $10.67, $8.41 $12.10, $13.40, $16.02)
Closed down $.02 at $8.11
SIGM announced Q4 2015 earnings (quarter ended January 31, 2015) on April 1, 2015.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sigma-designs-inc-reports-financial-201500975.html
Revenues were $54.8 million up 42% from $38.5 million last year. GAAP net loss was $.10 a share, compared to a profit of $.04 per share last year (all from a tax credit). Non-GAAP profit was $.04 per share compared to a $.13 loss last year. Our valuation was $12.14 down from $12.17 last quarter. Net cash per share was $2.58.
Guidance for next quarter looks much the same as this just reported quarter, but they gave indications that recent design wins in the telco sector should kick in later this year. We think there is still some upside here if they can demonstrate some revenue/profit growth later this year as they hinted.
Down 5%, HOLD
Concurrent Computer (NASDAQ-CCUR)-Recommended 2/4/2011)
Buy Price-$4.58 (Was $5.08 before $.50 special dividend)
NEW Valuation $16.38 (was $13.07, $14.80, $17.72, $15.01, $15.10, $14.55, $14.77, $16.26, $16.20, $15.37, $13.53, $15.85, $14.13, $11.38, $14.04, $18.54, $15.99)
Closed up $.08 at $7.32 (including $1.20 of dividends)
Pays $.48 annual dividend
CCUR announced Q3 2015 (December 31, 2014) earnings on April 28,2015. Revenues were $17.1 million, down 7% from $18.3 million last year but up from $16 million last quarter. They made $.780,000 profit versus a loss of $.6 million last quarter and a $1.1 million profit last year. Gross margin held steady at 59%. Our valuation jumped back up to $16.38 from $13.07 last quarter. Cash per share rose to $2.93 or 49% of the market cap. We will keep a HOLD on CCUR until we see what the new CEO can do and they get revenue growth back. We continue to collect the 7% dividend.
UP 60%, HOLD
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $6.47 (was $5.96, $6.02, $5.67, $5.57, $5.70, $6.71, $6.41, $6.14, $5.97, $6.21, $6.13, $5.82, $5.81, $5.72, $5.65, $5.39, $4.86, $5.60, $5.73, $5.54, $5.74, $5.96, $4.72, $5.19, $5.66, $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $3.20, down $.06
ARI announced another acquisition last week. No financial details were disclosed.
ARI announced Q2 2015 earnings (quarter ended January 31, 2015) on March 5th. Revenues were $10.1 million up a whopping 25% over last year. They made a profit of $.02 per share versus a $.03 loss last year. Our valuation rose to $6.47 up from $5.96 last quarter. Recurring revenue was $9.1 million or 90% of total revenue. All in all, a very nice quarter.
They are doing a good job positioning the company to be acquired. Hopefully this will soon happen with a $5+ price like we got for XRS in September 2014.
UP 99%, HOLD, Still a large valuation gap here and the Company is executing well.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $1.39 (Was $1.34, $1.22, $.99, $1.02, $1.05, $1.07, $1.14, $1.17, $1.34, $1.34, $1.37, $1.36, $1.23, $.91, $1.21, $.71, $.83, $.88 $.96, $.93, $.75, $.85, $1.57, $1.40, $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price $.55 closed at $.55
CTIG announced Q4 2014 (December 31, 2014) on March 30, 2015.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cti-group-reports-2014-financial-211145797.html
They had a HUGE Q4. Revenues were $6.1 million, which was 50% of their first nine months revenues. They also made $1.7 million or $.05 for the quarter. For the year they did $18.3 million in revenues and made $2.2 million or $.07 per share versus a $.04 loss last year. We did our valuation on 2014 year numbers and our valuation rose to $1.39 from $1.34 last quarter. If we used the quarter’s numbers, the valuation would have soared to $2.14. But since there is no guidance, not even a breakout of quarterly numbers, we are going to assume that this is a very positive “blip”. Still way undervalued, but no light as to when or how this will ever be properly valued.
John Birbeck announced his departure in October 2014. He was one of the group trying to take CTIG private for $.40 a share. Birbeck will remain a Director of the company. He owns about 7% of CTIG (about 2.3 million shares).
They need to get an investment banker and sell the company. Probably get at least $.75 a share for it from someone.
UP 104%. HOLD
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