Cheap Stocks, 2/13/2009 Update

Down, down, down we go. Where we’ll stop, nobody knows.

We are recommending OPKO Health (OPK-AMEX) at $1.25 this week as a speculation. OPK’s majority shareholder is Dr. Phillip Frost. He founded and sold Key Pharmaceutical and KOS Pharmaceuticals over the last decade or so for huge premiums. This is a long term hold, but may likely turn into a trading stock in the interim. Frost owns approximately 85 million shares out of 200 million shares.

About OPKO Health, Inc.

Miami-based OPKO is a specialty healthcare company engaged in the development, marketing, and sales of novel agents and both diagnostic and therapeutic devices for the management of ophthalmic diseases.

At the same time, we are selling MBRK at $1.94 for a 67% gain (gotta take em when you have them).

Last week the DOW was down 5.2%, NASDAQ was down 3.6% and S+P 500 was down 4.8%. For the year the DOW is now down 10.6%, NASDAQ down 2.7% and the S+P 500 is down 8.5%. The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are also down about 8% this year.

We had a 2.5% loss last week and are down 5.3% for the year.

Last week we went 6 stocks up, 15 down and 1 even. Since inception we are now 22 stocks up, and 23 down.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)
2008-DTLK +40% (third trip on this one)
2008-ILOG +26% (Buy-out offer from IBM)
2008-PARL +56%
2009-MBRK +67%

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 23 stocks that we closed out in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 the average gain was 22%.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $5.68 (was $8.90, $9.40 before adding $10,000,and was $10.65 before double up), Valuation –Suspended.
Down $.27 to $2.98.
SPNC pre-announced Q4 sales in early January. Sales of $104 million for the year. Not the $107 million they predicted–but still not bad considering “the world ended in Q4”. At the current $104 million market-cap, SPNC is trading at just over 50% of sales, net of $44 million in cash. Cash includes $16 million of auction-rate securities. Based on what we have been reading, these “investments” will likely turn out OK.
SPNC is suffering from the FDA, ICE raids that apparently eminated from an ex-employee whistle-blower trying to collect some money from the company. SPNC has the financial where-with-all to deal with this. Just got to wait this one out.
The company has $44 million in cash ($1.30 per share), no debt and is growing about 25% a year.
Earnings due out next Thursday, before the open.
Now down 48%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $2.41 (was $3.02 before adding another $10,000,was $3.21 before adding another $10,000, averaged down from $3.66),
Valuation $8.09 (was $8.12, $8.64, $8.47, $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $1.30, down $.15.
Cash is $.83 per share.
Earnings out in early February. Sales down 16% to $5.2 million, but they made $.06 per share. Not bad. Stock did nothing. New valuation is $8.09 down a measley $.03 from last quarter.
Now down 46%. BUY

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up)
Valuation $11.30 (was $11.48, $11.47 $10.99, $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Down $.30 at $4.40.
Cannell Capital filed a 13D in February 2008, disclosing a 12.9% ownership stake. Cannell has been pushing MEDW management to sell the company. Meanwhile, Constellation Software, a Canadian public company that has been on an acquisition binge filed a 13D in April 2008, disclosing a 6.1% ownership in MEDW (499,000 shares). Constellation has $243 million in revenues and is profitable.
On November 14th, 2008, Constellation filed a 13D/A. One of their subsidiary officers bought over 300,000 MEDW shares in October, bringing their combined owership in MEDW to 17.9%
Looks like something is going to happen here–but when?
Down 31%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $3.74 (was $7.26 before double up),
Valuation $4.31 (was $5.88, $8.63, $9.90, $8.69, $11.51)
Down $.10 to $.38
CLZR announced “earnings” in mid-January. Bad as expected. Our valuation fell to $4.31 per share, which is still 10 times the current market price–but they are losing money at an alarming rate, and have decided not to sell the company. They still have $1.29 per share in cash, but at the current burn-rate, this will last about 1 year.
We will give this one 1 more quarter to see if the trend can reverse.
Down 90%. HOLD.

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $1.63 (Was $2.38 before adding another $20,000, $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up),
Valuation $5.61 (was $6.42, $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Down $.01 at $.14.
Blinkx, a U.K. company made an all cash offer to buy MIVA in early August 2008 for $1.20. MIVA rejected the offer almost immediately saying it was too low and they think they can do better.
Blinkx later came back with a $.55 offer to buy MIVA. Not much can make a stock go up these days–even a 300% premium take-over offer.
Down 91%. HOLD

Harris Interactive. (HPOL-Recommended 5/25/2008)
Buy Price $1.79 (was $1.82 before adding $10,000, $2.02 before $10,000 added and $2.15 before double up),
Valuation $4.67 (Was $4.66, $6.00, $5.96)
Down $.03 at $.52.
Finaciere De Sainte Marine, is a big investor in HPOL. They now own 7,779,000 shares up from 6,640,381 shares in mid-2008, or over 14% of the company.
Earnings out last week. Sales off about 20%, and they took about $66 million of write-offs. Without all these charges they essentially had a small operating profit. Not bad for this economy and the 20% sales drop off. Cash was just a tiny bit more than bank debt (+-$26 million), and they triggered a bank covenant default. They expect to get an amended facility in place shortly, and we expect they will. Our valuation actual rose a penny to $4.67.
Down 71%. BUY

IPASS. (IPAS-Recommended 6/1/2008)
Buy Price-$1.90 (Was $2.07 before another $10,000 added and $2.15 before double up), Valuation $4.99 (was $4.30, $4.09)
Down $.15 to $1.06.
Foxhill owns 3,844,000 shares or 6.1% of IPASS.
With $1.10 per share in cash, we feel that this has little additional downside.
Earnings due out Monday, February 23rd after the market close.
Down 44%. BUY

Healthstream Inc. (HSTM-Recommended 8/4/2008)
Buy Price-$2.40
Valuation $4.62 (Was $4.42)
Down $.05 at $2.04.
Down 15%. HOLD

CCA Industries. (CAW-Recommended 8/4/2008)
Buy Price-$5.51 (was $6.14 before $10,000 added, $6.66 before $10,000 added, $7.00 before $10,000 added) (15.8% dividend yield)
Valuation $17.23 (Was $18.36)
Up $.26 to $3.05.
CCA announced in mid-January that they lost $6 million in annual sales to Walmart, as Walmart will no longer carry some of their products. This is about 10% of CCA’s annual sales. When are we going to get some good news? They still have almost $2.60 in cash, and the dividend yield is now over 15%.
Down 45%. HOLD

Magic Software Enterprises. (MGIC-Recommended 8/18/2008)
Buy Price-$1.93 (was $2.08 before another $10,000 added, $2.00 before $10,000 added at $2.16)
Valuation $4.18 (was $4.15)
Closed up $.11 at $1.38
Formula Systems (NASDAQ-FORTY) filed an amended Schedule 13D in early September 2008. They added 569,000 shares to their position between May and August and now hold 17,605,000 shares of MGIC or 55.4%. FORTY is a long-term investor, but this is a good sign of course.
Earnings due out Wednesday, February 18th before the market open.
Down 28%. BUY

Angeion Corporation. (ANGN-Recommended 8/28/2008)
Buy Price-$3.82 (was $5.15 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $13.30 (was $13.03)
Closed down $.06 at $2.86
Has $2.19 per share in cash.
Blueline Partners filed a 13D on ANGN on June 23, 2008. They own 216,000 shares or about 5.3% of the company. All of their purchases were well North of the current price.
Down 25%. BUY

Noah Educational. (NED-Recommended 10/5/2008)
Buy Price-$3.03(was $3.00 before $10,000 added)
Valuation $7.98 (Was $7.18)
Closed down $.08 at $2.84
Has cash of $3.37 per share. NED traded ex-dividend in late December.
Earnings due out Tuesday, Feb. 17th after the close.
Up 12% (adjusted for $.56 dividend).

Datalink . (DTLK-Recommended 10/12/2008)
Buy Price-$3.02
Valuation $10.27 (Was $10.26)
Closed down $.07 at $2.97
Cash is $2.23 per share.
Earnings out in early February. Sales down about 5% at $48 million, and they made $.07 per share compared to $.11 last year. Not bad for this economy. All sounded good until they said they expect a small loss next quarter. Cash is $2.23 per share and our valuation rose to $10.27. We expect our valuation to fall if their projections are correct to maybe $8.50 per share. Still trading at less than 50% of even that reduced projected valuation.
Down 2%. HOLD

Global Shipping . (GSL-Recommended 10/12/2008)
Buy Price-$3.69
Valuation NA-Dividend yield play
Closed down $.02 at $3.48
Current dividend yield–26%
Fleet utilization is still 98%. Their average ship charter life is around 10 years and the closest-in renewal is at the end of 2012. By then, you will have collected more than the current share price in dividends.
Dividend declared last week–still $.23 per quarter and they restructured their bank lines to help insure they can continue the dividend.
Down 6%. BUY

Middlebrook Pharmaceutical. (MBRK-Recommended 10/12/2008)
Buy Price-$1.16
Closed up $.01 at $1.94
With a 67% gain–we are cashing out. This could be great in the long term, but it could also go back into the $1 range as this is still essentially a start-up.
Up 67%. SELL

SonicWALL. (SNWL-Recommended 10/20/2008)
Buy Price-$4.50
NEW Valuation-$11.47(Was $11.09, $10.44)
Closed down $.04 at $3.90
$3.06 now cash per share.
Earnings out last week. Sales were down less than 5%, but pre-tax earnings almost tripled. They expect to be profitable next quarter also. Aside from this crappy market theis should be an $8 stock right now. Our valuation rose to $11.47 a share. That is 2 straight increases in valuation. Cash is 78% of the current market cap.
Down 13%. BUY

Cynosure. (SNWL-Recommended 10/29/2008)
Buy Price-$9.10
NEW Valuation-$20.79-(Was $29.49)
Closed up $.35 at $8.17
CYNO has $7.45 per share in cash.
Earnings out last week. Sales down 30% and they lost $1.9 million on a non-GAAP basis. Not bad performance given the sales drop. They ended with $95 million in cash ($7.45 a share). Our valuation fell to $20.79 per share. Big drop, but cash is now 91% of the narket cap, and they seem to know how to manage their expenses in this downturn.
Down 10%. HOLD

Cutera. (CUTR-Recommended 10/29/2008)
Buy Price-$7.88
NEW Valuation-$ 18.06 (Was $18.88, $21.07)
Closed up $.88 at $6.85
Earnings out last week. Sales down 32% and they essentially broke-even for the quarter. Again, not bad given the economy. Cash fell a tad to $8.35 a share, and our valuation fell to $18.06. Trading at 82% of cash on the balance sheet. Yes, the business is “free” and you get $1.50 per share of cash as a gift to buy it.
Down 13%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks, especially in this Bear Market.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up),
Valuation $5.66 (was $5.63, $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $.80, up $.05.
Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 5X what it is selling for.
Now down 50%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.79 (Was $.93, $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-each time),
Valuation $3.30 (was $3.76, $4.00 $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.54, down $.01.
Earnings out in mid-November. Sales down 13%, but they remained profitable. Made $.01versus $.02 last year.
Earning due out Tuesday, Feb. 17th, before the open.
Down 32%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask,
Valuation $1.40 (Was $1.29, $1.38, $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price unchanged at $.06. Closed at $.06.
Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money–$604,000 in the last quarter–but they did have some revenues–$38,000!
They might have to sell or shut this VOIP business down in our opinion. Just losing too much money, and eroding shareholder value.
Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Down 77%. HOLD

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up)
Valuation-$2.22 (Was $1.61, $2.28, $2.08)
Closed at $.21, down $.04
For the 9 months of 2008, EPS is $.13 per share. So looks like we are selling at about 2X earnings. Lotus announced last week that it bought the land use rights in Mongolia for $26 million, subject to contruction approvals etc. If the project is not approved, they get the money back. They said they paid for this out of internally generated funds. Pretty impressive. 3 years and $58 million to go to build this plant. They are also looking to sell or rent up to 80% of the land to other pharma companies to create a pharma industrial park. This may work out ok. Unusual legal structure, $58 million construction project all hang over this company. Stock market stinks, Chinese stocks maybe even worse than most.
Down 75%. BUY


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s