6/9/2007 Update

Last week we went 5 up and 8 down and 1 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by ARIS.ob, PARL, BDR, ILOG, SPNC and BDAY. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -3.3%,+20.1% and +38.6% respectively. Since inception we are now 17 stocks up and 7 down (3 of which are down less than 10%).

We were down 3.3% this past week and are now up 20.1% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 were all down with losses ranging from 1.5% (NASDAQ) to 1.9% (S+P 500) last week, and are all now up from 6.3% (S+P 500) to 7.7% (DOW) for the year. We are still are up more than double the averages in 2007 and triple the NASDAQ and S+P 500.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007 DTLK +25% (2 weeks)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 10 stocks that we have closed out in 2006 and 2007 the average gain was 35%. We are tired of watching our stocks go up–and then down. So we are planning to take profits a bit sooner than in 2006. We have already closed out 6 positions in 2007 compared to 4 in all of 2006.

Not much news last week except for ARIS.ob, earnings.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Up $.20 to $10.29 last week.
Short interest is 4.4 million shares. We are just waiting for FDA approval. If the TURBO-Booster is approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge. SPNC announced 4 analyst presentations in June–2 next week.
Now down 3% so far. BUY.

QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $11.27 (was $15.92, $13.69, $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $8.22, down $.07.
Our valuation has fallen from $15.92 to $11.27, but if they can hit their guidance for the year, the valuation would be approximately $14.60–72% above the current price. But since they seem to have trouble hitting their numbers–we will hold for now.
No news
Up 19% so far. HOLD.

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $24.78, down a whopping $2.82.
Wachovia downgrades PDLI last week. Said there were no short-term catalysts. How about Third Point?
If this reaches $30, without a buy-out, we would sell.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company and has more than $200 million invested. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 28%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.20 (was $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $5.03, down $.21 for the week.
If this gets to $7 we would sell.
No news.
Now up 57%. HOLD.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.62, up $.13 last week.
No news. New management needs to get to work on this one fast.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 24%. HOLD.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $4.01 (was $5.12, $5.88).
Closed at $1.56 down $.09 for the week.
Our valuation has dropped to $4.01. BDR is still cheap in our opinion, but they need a decent quarter to get this stock moving up.
No news.
Trading at 39% of our valuation.
Down 15%. HOLD

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.99 (was $20.52)
Closed at $12.25 last week, down $.51.
No news.
Down 9.9%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
Down $.21 to $8.65 last week
With the insider buying in the last couple of months, we like this stock alot.
Down 2%. BUY

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007
Buy Price $6.98, Valuation $13.40
Up $.33 to $7.31 last week.
No news.
Up 5% HOLD/BUY a little

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, NEW Valuation $5.34 (was $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.50, down $.40 last week.
Q3 earnings were announced on Thursday. Apparently they disappointed shareholders who dumped a huge (145,00) number of shares last week. Sales were up 15% to $4.1 million, but they lost $205,000 versus earning about $465,000 last year. OC-Net integration costs hurt earnings, but the company did not say by how much. Gross margins continued to be above 80%
The good news is that there are actually shares to be bought and our valuation moved UP to $5.34 per share and ARI is now trading at 28% of our valuation.
This is now a double up at $1.50. New avg. cost will be $1.78 next week.
Now down 27%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.49 (was $.57, $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.15, even last week.
This one has cost us 3.5% off our total 2007 performance so far.
We will give LION another quarter to see if they can turn things around.
Down 58%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter(s)).

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.34, up $.02 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share–35% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
No news.
7% gain so far. BUY.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19,Valuation $3.25 (was $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.27, up $.06.
Trading at 39% of our valuation.
No news.
Now up 6%. HOLD.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.29 (Was $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price dropped $.01 last week at $.37. Closed at $.35.
This is still trading at only 29% of our latest valuation, but until the VOIP business stops losing money, we are not buyers–yet/
Up 37% based on the ASK price


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s