4/21/2007 Update–Pay-back

Last week we went 7 up and 9 down. LINN.ob holds first place on our “biggest dog” list (by far) followed by PARL, INFT, ARIS and our newest stock-BDAY. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -3.8,+10.7% and +27.7% respectively. Since inception we are now 16 stocks up and 5 down (1 of which is down less than 10%).

We paid for our big week last week with a 3.75 drop this past week and are now up 10.7% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 all gained from 1.4-2.8% last week, and are all now up from 4% to 4.7% for the year. We are definitely moving conversely to the averages the past few weeks, but still are up more than double the averages.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

NTCT +44%
ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
DTLK +41%
CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC announced earnings last week. PARL took it on the chin after their weak earnings report and our OB-abies got little attention as buyers ignored most of them.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Up $.19 to $11.09 last week.
Q1,revenues came in at $17.4 million, up 28% over the prior year, but below some analysts estimates of over $18 million. SPNC had a small loss ($65,000) after a non-cash stock compensation expense charge of $669,000. They reaffirmed annual guidance of revenues of $79-$82 million and net income to be about break-even (+-). Everything is going fine here. They also expect to file the CELLO (above-the-knee) 501k application with the FDA in the next 30 days. If approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now up 4% so far. BUY.

QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $10.17, up $.12.
No news. But volume continues to be good, along with the price.
Earnings due Thursday, May 17th after the close.
Trading at 64% of our valuation.
Up 47% so far. HOLD.

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $24.13, down $.19.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. Another letter was sent to the CEO on April 17th. Looks like they are serious about unlocking the value here with over $200 million invested. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 25%. HOLD.

MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.34, up $.13.
No news.
Now up 14%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $3.23, down $.19 for the week.
Earnings scheduled for April 30th, before the close.
No other news.
Now up 1%. BUY.

Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $3.74 (averaged down from $4.11), Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Closed down another $.09 at $3.16 last week.
This IS ridiculous. Cash is now 84% of the market cap.
Earnings are out on May 14th, after the close.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 15%. BUY.

RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
Closed down another $.02 at $1.36 last week.
No news.
Up 36%. BUY.

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), NEW Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.91, down $.86 last week.
Investors ran from PARL last week over the disappointing earnings report. Lost in this was the fact that they will remain listed on NASDAQ. The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 20%. HOLD.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.91 up $.02 for the week.
No news. Trading at 37% of our valuation.
Up 4%. BUY

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.52
Closed at $13.73 last week, up $.17.
No news.
Up 2%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
No news last week.
The insider buying has been impressive of late. We bought more ourselves at $8.65. Volume has dried up and there appear to only sellers (small ones) around right now. May buy more next week
Down 4%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.95, down $.07 last week.
No news.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 5%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.21, down $.02 last week.
Now trading at only 40% of our current valuation.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around.
Down 42%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.43, down $.07 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share–33% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
14% gain so far. HOLD.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.48, up $.02.
No news.
Now up 24%. HOLD.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.28 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price moved up $.01 to $.36. Closed at $.35.
This is now trading at only 28% of our latest valuation.
No news.
Up 33% based on the ASK price. HOLD.

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