More of the same

We went 4 up, 8 down last week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain, dropped 1.1% to 10.1%. DWCH continued as our biggest dog followed by, Linn.ob, MIVA, INFT and ARIS.ob. Since the start of the year we are 11 up and 5 down. Mini-caps continue to lag way behind the market We did start to see some impact from tax loss selling last week as LINN.ob and INFT dropped for no reason.

This wacky year-end trading can provide some good buying opportunities as people are dumping some stocks almost with no regard to price. For example, IYXI.ob dropped to $1.89 on Wednesday and closed at $2.35 (24% recovery), and MOBI (Mobius Mgmt.) was trading over $7.00 and dropped to $6.58 on the open on Thursday and closed at $7.03 (7% swing). MOBI is one of the stocks we have followed for a number of years and have traded in and out of. More later on this one.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Price got whacked another $.39 to $11.48 last week. No news, just the shorts and market makers playing games with 100 share trades again. Up 8% so far. HOLD

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $8.10, down $.16. Announced a small acquisition last week–about $4 million in cash purchase price. Yield about 1.2%. Trading at only 60% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Up 17% so far. HOLD.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $20.97, up $.89. PDLI has almost recouped it’s losses over the past 2 weeks. Huge acquisition premiums on KOS Pharma and Tanox last week had to help. Now up 9%. BUY.

MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, NEW Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.27, up $.03. New valuation crept up $.14 to $7.52, not great but al least in the right direction. They still have a lot of work to do to get this company profitable. Now down 14% to date. HOLD.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.34, down $.06, still a loser–down 36%. HOLD to see how this quarter turns out on November 21. Valuation gap is still huge, but declining. VSNT, DTLK, NTCT did nothing for a long time–until they announced some good earnings and then all took off. Lets hope this is DWCH’s quarter.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, New Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Down $.27 last week to $3.73. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 9%. I think that there is some tax loss selling going on here, and just impatience. Frustrating stock. BUY.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.21)). Closed at $2.00, down $.10 last week. This stock is still pretty illiquid so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. They announced that they retained the Stihl business last week and the CEO was speaking at some college forum. At least they are alive! Now down 3% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, NEW Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.28, down $.01 last week. Still trading at only 45% of our current valuation. Down 22% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.54 (was 2.88)). Closed at $1.32, up $.12. OPTIO announced that they collected a $2.8 million note that they had partially written-off. So in addition to the $.12 per share in cash that this will add, they will also have a $900,000 (about $.04) gain to report. Now in the plus column with a 6% gain. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.36 (was $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.50, down $.04. Now up 26%. No news, just lack of interest in this and other mini-caps right now. Maybe some tax loss selling for those that bought at $2.50. Still only trading at only 45% of our valuation. Earning to be announced on Wednesday this week. BUY.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price dropped $.01 to $.29. Closed at $.26. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 7% so far (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed up $.01 at $2.33, up 22% to date. IYXI traded over 700,000 shares on Wednesday. It dropped as low as $1.89 and bounced back strongly by the end of the day/week. Someone wanted to take their tax loss early–and did. This is still very risky, but could be a real barnburner is they do what they say they are going to do. HOLD.

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