Relentless

This cappy market is relentless.

We went 2 up, 9 down and 2 even this past week. Our model portfolio year-to-date gain dropped 3.1% to a 11.1% gain. MIVA is still our biggest dog, followed by DWCH, LINN.ob. Since the start of the year we are 10 up and 6 down, which stinks for us. PDLI dropped back into the red as did our latest recommedation SPNC last week.

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

As a side note, when tech related takeovers are announced, we test our valuation method against the take-0ver offer pricing. Last week EMBT had a takeover announced. We ran our valuation and came up with $8.11 a share. The takeover offer was $8.38. EMBT was trading at about $6.40 a share before the takeover or a 30% discount to the offer. Not enough of a discount for us to recommend this stock, but good validation that our method does work.

SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). The shorts continue to rule by constantly offering 100 share lots at lower and lower prices. Most of the time the same market makers are on the bid too–at lower and lower prices. Price fell to $10.08, down $.57 last week. Down 5%. SPNC presents at a AG Edwards conference on September 20th at 10 am EST. Hopefully they will do good and we will get some buying interest to knock off these 100 share trades. BUY

CAW-(Buy price $9.45, Valuation $18.40). Closed down $.03 at $9.96. Yield about 3%. A group called Costa Brava Partnership offerred to buy the Class A stock at a “substantial premium”. The company has rejected this offer. CB owns 7.9% of the stock. CAW announced a $25 million credit line last week–so either some shares are going to get bought back or maybe an acquisition in the works? Up 5% so far. HOLD.

QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.73 (was $11.86). Closed at $7.34, down $.26. Yield about 1.4%. Trading at only 53% of valuation. Has $1.30 in cash also. Declared their quartely $.025 dividend last week. Up 6% so far. BUY.

PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)–Closed at $19.22, down $.62. Now down .5%. HOLD.
MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.38 (was $9.10)). MIVA closed at $2.60, up $.06. Now down 32% on this one. No news. BUY.

DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, Valuation $7.63 (was $9.31)). Closed at $2.78, down $.15, still a loser–down 24%. HOLD.

INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.86 (was $7.32)). Up $.16 to $4.31. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now up 5%. HOLD.

OB-abies

ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.21). Closed at $2.00, down $.05. Down 3% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.

Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.66 (was $.79)). Closed at $.31, down $.01. Still trading at less than 50% of our current valuation. Down 14% YTD. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money.

OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.88). Closed at $1.33, down $.07. Now up 6% to date. HOLD.

AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.81). Stock closed at $1.70, down $.01. Now only up 43%. Still waiting on year-end results for AVSO. Could be burdened with some acquisition and capital raising charges, but we expect to see some good operating results. Still only trading at less than 50% of our valuation. BUY.

CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.05 (Was $.82)). Ask price fell $.02 to $.35. Closed at $.34. Cash is $.28 per share. Up 30% (based on asked price). If you own this HOLD. If you don’t-BUY.

IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation–over $3.00). Closed unchanged at $2.50, still up 31% so far. HOLD.

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