We were off last week, so all discussion, stats, are for the last 2 weeks.

Bear market for sure. Not much good news out there. Housing, financials, oil prices, inflation, interest rates, end of quarter fund selling, Russell rebalancing. They all came together in the perfect storm and drove the markets down hugely. You cannot even make money on Chinese stocks these days.

BDAY soared on Friday by 65% on a “take-under” bid from Liberty Media. We advised selling on the news at $3.75. This was a 56% gain from the previous week, but still left us with a loss of 39%. We hate when we are right—and wrong like this. But at least the agony of waiting is over on this one. No more retail for me.

Both MIVA and IPASS look too good to be true–so we are adding another $20,000 to MIVA and $10,000 to IPASS this week. New average buy price for MIVA will be $1.63 and for IPASS, $2.07.

The DOW was down 7.8%, NASDAQ was down 5.7% and the S+P 500 was down 6.0%.

We went 6 stocks up, 8 down and 1 even.

For last week, 2008 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -6.2%,-28.5 and +7.0% respectively. Since inception we are now 22 stocks up and 12 down, with 5 of them being down 10% or less.

So far in 2008 the DOW is down 14.6%, NASDAQ is down 12.7% and the S+P 500 is down 12.4%. The NASDAQ is still down a 19.0% since October 31, 2007.

The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are both down just about 12% this year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)
2008-BDAY -39% (long overdue takeover offer-or “take-under”)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 20 stocks that we closed out in 2006, 2007 and 2008 the average gain was 20%.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $9.40 (was $10.65 before double up), Valuation $20-$22
Down $.60 to $9.98.
SPNC presented at the Jeffries conference last week. Not a word, or reaction from it. Disappointing.
The company has $43.4 million in cash ($1.37 per share), and is trading at about 2.5 times 2008 revenues (net of cash)and is growing about 30% a year.
Now up 6%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.02 (was $3.21 added $10,000, averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.47 (was $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.41, down $.25.
Our valuation is $8.47, so we are trading at 28% of our valuation.
No news.
Now down 20%. BUY

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.14 (was $4.78 before $10,000 adder, $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $12.40 (Was $11.24, $10.80 $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $5.12, up $.15.
Parl announced FY 2008 earnings in early June. Sales were $154 million, gross margin was 50%, they have $1 per share in cash and made $.24 a share for the year-fully taxed. Q4 EPS was like $.13. Our valuation moved up to $12.40 per share.
Now trading at 41% of our valuation—still cheap.
The new management has 2.0 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Up 24%. HOLD.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $24.06 (was $24.67, $20.51, $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $10.25 up $.61.
ILOG revised their 2008 guidance down from 20% sales growth and $1-6 million in operating income to double digit sales growth and breakeven operating income. ILOG’s market cap, minus cash is $80 million. This is less than 50% of annual sales, for a software company with 70%+ gross margins.
Cash is $3.84 a share (37% of market cap).
ILOG is trading at 43% of our valuation.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 15%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $6.15 (was $8.38 before $10,000 adder and $8.82 before double-up), Valuation $7.82 (Was 15.51, $17.85 $18.18)
Up $1.35 to $3.75 on the Liberty Media take-over offer. SOLD.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up) NEW Valuation $10.99 (was $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Down $.16 at $5.84.
Cannell Capital filed a 13D on February 19th, disclosing a 12.9% ownership stake. Cannell is pushing MEDW management to sell the company. Meanwhile, Constellation Software, a Canadian public company that has been on an acquisition binge filed a 13D in April, disclosing a 6.1% ownership in MEDW (499,000 shares). Constellation has $243 million in revenues and is profitable.
In early May, Constellation increased its bank credit line to $105 million from $50 million.
On May 21 Constellation purchased another 586,000 shares of MEDW at prices from $5.43to $5.70 (most at $5.70). So Constellation now owns 1,056,000 shares–13.9%.
Looks like something is going to happen here.
Down 8%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $3.74 (was $7.26 before double up), Valuation $9.90 (was $8.69, $11.51)
Up $.21 to $2.38
No news.
Down 36%. HOLD

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.38 (Was $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $6.42 (was $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Down $.56 to $1.11.
With $.70 per share in cash (63% of market cap.) we are adding another $20,000 to this position. New average buy price is $1.63.
If they can do what they say in 2008, a valuation of close to $8 is possible.
Trading at 25% of our latest valuation
Down 53%. BUY

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.97 (Was, $10.66, $9.39)
Up $.41 to $4.69.
No news.
Trading at 47% of our valuation.
Up 10%. HOLD

Harris Interactive. (HPOL-Recommended 5/25/2008)
Buy Price $2.02 (was $2.15 before double up), Valuation $5.96
Down $.44 to $2.07.
Wellington Management filed a 13G/A last week disclosing that they had sold almost all of the 4.5 million shares they had owned. This seemed to take the lid off the stock as it was very CHEAP.
Trading at 42% of our valuation.
Up 3%. BUY

IPASS. (IPAS-Recommended 6/1/2008)
Buy Price $2.15, Valuation $4.09
Down $.18 to $2.00.
With $1.09 per share in cash (55% of market cap), we feel that this has little additional downside so we are adding another $10,000 here. New average buy price is $2.07.
No news.
Down 7%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

Interestingly, our OB-abies have held up better than the “higher-quality” stocks so far this year. They are down about 8% on average, compared to 19% for the stocks above. At least so far. As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.63 (was $5.61, $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.65, up $.18.
Earnings announced in June were impressive. $.06 per share in earnings (untaxed)for the quarter and $.14 per share for the first three quarters. Our valuation moved up to $5.63 per share. This is still way too cheap.
ARI does little to get any investor attention. Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 3X what it is selling for.
Now down 2%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.93 (Was $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-twice), NEW Valuation $4.00 (was $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.85, down $.05.
Earnings out in early May. Sales weak, but earning were great.
Sales dropped from $14.6 million to $12.8 million. But, net income was $1.005 million compared to a $224,000 loss last year. EPS was $.05 versus a loss of $.02 last year. For the 9 months ended March 31, earnings per share were $.12 (untaxed).
Now down 9%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.38 (Was $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price unchanged at $.28. Closed at $.20.
CTI announced earnings in early May. Sales were good, but they had another loss. Sales were up to $5.339 million from $5.054 million. They managed to reduce their loss to $180,000 from $587,000 last year. Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money–$729,000 in the current quarter. Gross margin % rose to 75% from 72%. Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Our valuation rose slightly to $1.38 from $1.31.
Maybe these guys will wake up and create some shareholder value in 2008.
This is still trading at only 20% of our latest valuation.
UP 4%. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up) Valuation-$2.28 (Was $2.08)
Closed at $.81, down $.04.
Ah, those Chinese stocks. After announcing earnings in mid-May, it took LTUS another week or so to come out and reaffirm that they expect to make at least $13.1 million in earnings this year. On approximately 50 million shares outstanding this is $.26 per share earnings. So we are trading at a little less than 4 times 2008 EPS. 3 new drugs expected to be introduced this year also.
Down 3%. HOLD

Well BDAY finally got their takeover (take-under) offer at $3.90 a share. Biggest % gainer on NASDAQ today +63%, but little solace for us, as we end up booking a 39% loss on this. Don’t wait for the extra $.15, sell at $3.75 or better.

ARI announced Q3 earnings this morning. We think they are very good. Sales up only 1%to $4.158 million, but they earned $427,000 or $.06 a share (untaxed). For the 9 months ended 4/30/2008 they have now reported $.14 a share untaxed. They also moved into a net positive cash postition with cash balances exceeding debt by $700,000 or $.10 a share. At $1.40, this is a steal. Our valuation moved up a tad to $5.63 from $5.61.

ARI is trading at 25% of our valuation, looks like it will make close to $.19 a share in untaxed earings and is now in a positive net cash position.

BUY.

PS–We will be off this weekend due to a personal situation. See you on June 28th.

This week the markets were only slightly down. We were down as BDAY continued its slide and LTUS.ob did also. Not much news last week on our stocks.

The DOW was up .8%, NASDAQ was down .8% and the S+P 500 was down .05%.

Last week we went 5 stocks up, 6 down and 2 even.

HPOL was up 26% last week.

For last week, 2008 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -2.6%,-22.3 and +13.2% respectively. Since inception we are now 23 stocks up and 10 down and 1 even, with 3 of them being down 5% or less.

So far in 2008 the DOW is down 7.2%, NASDAQ is down 7.5% and the S+P 500 is down 6.4%. The NASDAQ is still down a 14.1% since October 31, 2007.

The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are both down just about 6.3% this year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 19 stocks that we closed out in 2006, 2007 and 2008 the average gain was 23%.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $9.40 (was $10.65 before double up), Valuation $20-$22
Down $.40 to $10.58.
SPNC presented at the Goldman conference last week. Not a word, or reaction from it. Disappointing.
They have another one coming up on June 25th at 9:30 am EST (Wednesday) at Jeffries.
The company has $43.4 million in cash ($1.37 per share), and is trading at about 2.5 times 2008 revenues (net of cash)and is growing about 30% a year.
Now up 13%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.02 (was $3.21 added $10,000, averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.47 (was $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.65, up $.04.
Our valuation is $8.47, so we are trading at 31% of our valuation.
No news.
Now down 12%. BUY

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.14 (was $4.78 before $10,000 adder, $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $12.40 (Was $11.24, $10.80 $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.97, up $.07.
Parl announced FY 2008 earnings in early June. Sales were $154 million, gross margin was 50%, they have $1 per share in cash and made $.24 a share for the year-fully taxed. Q4 EPS was like $.13. Our valuation moved up to $12.40 per share.
Now trading at 40% of our valuation—still cheap.
The new management has 2.0 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Up 20%. HOLD.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $24.06 (was $24.67, $20.51, $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $9.64 down $.96.
ILOG revised their 2008 guidance down from 20% sales growth and $1-6 million in operating income to double digit sales growth and breakeven operating income. ILOG’s market cap, minus cash is $80 million. This is less than 50% of annual sales, for a software company with 70%+ gross margins.
Cash is $3.84 a share (44% of market cap).
ILOG is trading at 40% of our valuation.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 20%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $6.15 (was $8.38 before $10,000 adder and $8.82 before double-up), Valuation $7.82 (Was 15.51, $17.85 $18.18)
Down $.42 to $2.40.
BDAY pulled their earnings announcement nine weeks ago as they apparently received interest from someone on a buy-out. Were it not for this, we would pack up the truck and sell this one as their struggles are more than we thought (and they thought too).
Trading at 31% of our valuation.
Hold for a while until this “take-over” thing flushes out. We are hoping it happens, but $7 a share looks like the most they could get.
Down 61%. HOLD.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up) NEW Valuation $10.99 (was $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Up $.07 at $6.00.
Cannell Capital filed a 13D on February 19th, disclosing a 12.9% ownership stake. Cannell is pushing MEDW management to sell the company. Meanwhile, Constellation Software, a Canadian public company that has been on an acquisition binge filed a 13D in April, disclosing a 6.1% ownership in MEDW (499,000 shares). Constellation has $243 million in revenues and is profitable.
In early May, Constellation increased its bank credit line to $105 million from $50 million.
On May 21 Constellation purchased another 586,000 shares of MEDW at prices from $5.43to $5.70 (most at $5.70). So Constellation now owns 1,056,000 shares–13.9%.
Last week Constellation announced another acquisition (4 in last 2 weeks) of what we believe are small software companies. So they are still on the acquisition trail for sure.
Looks like something is going to happen here.
Down 5%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $3.74 (was $7.26 before double up), Valuation $9.90 (was $8.69, $11.51)
Down $.13 to $2.17
No news (SOMETHING must be happening here–but nothing of substance for weeks now).
Down 42%. HOLD

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.38 (Was $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $6.42 (was $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Down $.05 to $1.67.
No news.
If they can do what they say in 2008, a valuation of close to $8 is possible.
Trading at 25% of our latest valuation
Down 30%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.97 (Was, $10.66, $9.39)
Up $.20 to $4.28.
No news.
Trading at 43% of our valuation.
Even. HOLD

Harris Interactive. (HPOL-Recommended 5/25/2008)
Buy Price $2.02 (was $2.15 before double up), Valuation $5.96
Up $.51 to $2.51.
Wellington Management filed a 13G/A last week disclosing that they had sold almost all of the 4.5 million shares they had owned. This seemed to take the lid off the stock as it was very CHEAP.
Trading at 42% of our valuation.
Up 24%. HOLD

IPASS. (IPAS-Recommended 6/1/2008)
Buy Price $2.15, Valuation $4.09
Down $.11 to $2.18.
No news.
Up 1%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

Interestingly, our OB-abies have held up better than the “higher-quality” stocks so far this year. They are down about 8% on average, compared to 16.4% for the stocks above. At least so far. As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.61 (was $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.40, down $.15 on a 100 share trade.
ARIS traded 61,700 one day last week–earnings anticipation? We hope so.
Earnings due out Monday June 16th, before the market opens.
ARI does little to get any investor attention. Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 3X what it is selling for.
Now down 13%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.93 (Was $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-twice), NEW Valuation $4.00 (was $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.90, down $.02.
Earnings out in early May. Sales weak, but earning were great.
Sales dropped from $14.6 million to $12.8 million. But, net income was $1.005 million compared to a $224,000 loss last year. EPS was $.05 versus a loss of $.02 last year. For the 9 months ended March 31, earnings per share were $.12 (untaxed).
Now down 3%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.38 (Was $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price unchanged at $.28. Closed at $.23.
CTI announced earnings in early May. Sales were good, but they had another loss. Sales were up to $5.339 million from $5.054 million. They managed to reduce their loss to $180,000 from $587,000 last year. Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money–$729,000 in the current quarter. Gross margin % rose to 75% from 72%. Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Our valuation rose slightly to $1.38 from $1.31.
Maybe these guys will wake up and create some shareholder value in 2008.
This is still trading at only 20% of our latest valuation.
UP 4%. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up) Valuation-$2.28 (Was $2.08)
Closed at $.85, down $.09.
Ah, those Chinese stocks. After announcing earnings in mid-May, it took LTUS another week or so to come out and reaffirm that they expect to make at least $13.1 million in earnings this year. On approximately 50 million shares outstanding this is $.26 per share earnings. So we are trading at a little less than 4 times 2008 EPS. 3 new drugs expected to be introduced this year also.
Up 1%. HOLD

Up and down, up and down go the markets. This week the markets plunged on unemployment news and record oil prices. We on the other hand were up 9.7% on great earnings from Parlux (stock up 45%) and strenght in ILOG (+14%). The DOW was down 3.4%, NASDAQ was down 1.9% and the S+P 500 was down 2.8%.

Last week we went 6 stocks up, 8 down and 1 even.

IPAS, our latest recommendation was up 6.5% last week and had been up as much as 17% until Friday. HPOL came back last week also and is now down less than 1%.

For last week, 2008 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +9.7%,-19.7 and +15.8% respectively. Since inception we are now 22 stocks up and 12 down, with 4 of them being down less than 5%.

So far in 2008 the DOW is down 8%, NASDAQ is down 6.7% and the S+P 500 is down 6.2%. The NASDAQ is still down a 13.4% since October 31, 2007.

The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are both down just about 6% this year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 19 stocks that we closed out in 2006, 2007 and 2008 the average gain was 23%.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $9.40 (was $10.65 before double up), Valuation $20-$22
Up $.08 to $10.98.
SPNC presents at a Goldman coference next week (Tuesday June 10th) and at Jeffries later this month (June 25th).
SPNC announced a new product in early May and a small acquisition ($5 million in annual revenue). Hopefully these small “add-ons” will not distract management from the great opportunity they already have in front of them.
The company has $53.4 million in cash ($1.69 per share), and is trading at about 2.5 times 2008 revenues (net of cash)and is growing about 30% a year.
Now up 17%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.02 (was $3.21 added $10,000, averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.47 (was $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.61, down $.02.
Our valuation is $8.47, so we are trading at 31% of our valuation.
No news.
Now down 14%. BUY

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.14 (was $4.78 before $10,000 adder, $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), NEW Valuation $12.40 (Was $11.24, $10.80 $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.90, up $1.53 (+45%).
Parl announced FY 2008 earnings on Thursday. Sales were $154 million, gross margin was 50%, they have $1 per share in cash and made $.24 a share for the year-fully taxed. Q4 EPS was like $.13. Our valuation moved up to $12.40 per share.
Now trading at 40% of our valuation—still cheap.
The new management has 2.0 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Up 19%. HOLD.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $24.06 (was $24.67, $20.51, $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $10.60 up $1.33.
ILOG revised their 2008 guidance down from 20% sales growth and $1-6 million in operating income to double digit sales growth and breakeven operating income. ILOG’s market cap, minus cash is $80 million. This is less than 50% of annual sales, for a software company with 70%+ gross margins.
Cash is $3.84 a share (44% of market cap).
ILOG is trading at 44% of our valuation.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 12%. HOLD

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $6.15 (was $8.38 before $10,000 adder and $8.82 before double-up), Valuation $7.82 (Was 415.51, $17.85 $18.18)
Down $.17 to $2.82.
BDAY pulled their earnings announcement eight weeks ago as they apparently received interest from someone on a buy-out. Were it not for this, we would pack up the truck and sell this one as their struggles are more than we thought (and they thought too).
Trading at 36% of our valuation.
Hold for a while until this “take-over” thing flushes out. We are hoping it happens, but $7 a share looks like the most they could get.
Down 54%. HOLD.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up) NEW Valuation $10.99 (was $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Down $.08 at $5.93.
Earnings out in early May. Sales dropped by 11%, but they still managed to make $.04 per share. Not “barnburing” results by any definition, but still a lot better than last quarter. Accordingly, our valuation rose to $10.99 from $10.28. With all the ruckus noted below–we still like this stock.
Cannell Capital filed a 13D on February 19th, disclosing a 12.9% ownership stake. Cannell is pushing MEDW management to sell the company. Meanwhile, Constellation Software, a Canadian public company that has been on an acquisition binge filed a 13D in April, disclosing a 6.1% ownership in MEDW (499,000 shares). Constellation has $243 million in revenues and is profitable.
In early May, Constellation increased its bank credit line to $105 million from $50 million.
On May 21 Constellation purchased another 586,000 shares of MEDW at prices from $5.43to $5.70 (most at $5.70). So Constellation now owns 1,056,000 shares–13.9%.
Last week Constellation announced 3 more acquisitions of what we believe are small software companies. So they are still on the acquisition trail for sure.
Looks like something is going to happen here.
Down 6%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $3.74 (was $7.26 before double up), Valuation $9.90 (was $8.69, $11.51)
Down $.19 to $2.30
No news (SOMETHING must be happening here–but nothing of substance for weeks now).
Down 39%. HOLD

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.38 (Was $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up), Valuation $6.42 (was $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Down $.01 to $1.72.
No news.
If they can do what they say in 2008, a valuation of close to $8 is possible.
Trading at 25% of our latest valuation
Down 28%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.97 (Was, $10.66, $9.39)
Down $.68 to $4.08.
No news.
CEO dumped his usual 30,000 shares last week, so he is done for the month.
Trading at 41% of our valuation.
Down 5%. HOLD

Harris Interactive. (HPOL-Recommended 5/25/2008)
Buy Price $2.02 (was $2.15 before double up), Valuation $5.96
Up $.10 to $2.00.
No news.
Trading at 34% of our valuation.
Down 1%. BUY

IPASS. (IPAS-Recommended 6/1/2008)
Buy Price $2.15, Valuation $4.09
Up $.14 to $2.29.
IPAS got up as high as $2.52 on Friday but then tailed off with the markets.
Trading at 56% of our valuation.
Up 7%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

Interestingly, our OB-abies have held up better than the “higher-quality” stocks so far this year. They are down about 4.2% on average, compared to 16.8% for the stocks above. At least so far. As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.61 (was $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.55, unchanged.
Earnings due out Monday June 16th, after the close.
ARI does little to get any investor attention. Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 3X what it is selling for.
Now down 4%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.93 (Was $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-twice), NEW Valuation $4.00 (was $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.915, up $.005.
Earnings out in early May. Sales weak, but earning were great.
Sales dropped from $14.6 million to $12.8 million. But, net income was $1.005 million compared to a $224,000 loss last year. EPS was $.05 versus a loss of $.02 last year. For the 9 months ended March 31, earnings per share were $.12 (untaxed).
Now down 2%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.38 (Was $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price down 1.5 cents at $.28. Closed at $.23.
CTI announced earnings in early May. Sales were good, but they had another loss. Sales were up to $5.339 million from $5.054 million. They managed to reduce their loss to $180,000 from $587,000 last year. Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money–$729,000 in the current quarter. Gross margin % rose to 75% from 72%. Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Our valuation rose slightly to $1.38 from $1.31.
Maybe these guys will wake up and create some shareholder value in 2008.
This is still trading at only 20% of our latest valuation.
UP 4%. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up) Valuation-$2.28 (Was $2.08)
Closed at $.94, down $.05.
Ah, those Chinese stocks. After announcing earnings in mid-May, it took LTUS another week or so to come out and reaffirm that they expect to make at least $13.1 million in earnings this year. On approximately 50 million shares outstanding this is $.26 per share earnings. So we are trading at a little less than 4 times 2008 EPS. 3 new drugs expected to be introduced this year also.
Up 12%. HOLD

iPASS, Inc. (NASDAQ–IPAS)
Valuation-$4.09
Closing price May 30, 2008-$2.15

We almost chose iPass over HPOL to recommend last week. We have been watching this one for a long time. Now at about 53% of our valuation and a number of catalysts occurring, we are ready to take the plunge again.

In March, Shamrock Activist Value Fund sent a letter to iPASS urging the sale of the company. Shamrock owns about 14% of iPASS. The stock was at about $2.80.

In mid-March, Foxhill Capital Partners, also sent a letter to iPass, urging the sale of the company. Foxhill owns about 3% of iPASS. The stock was at about $2.80.

On May 28, 2008, WC Capital Managements sent a letter to iPASS urging the sale of the company. WC owns over 4% of iPASS. The stock was at $2.11.

In between, iPASS announced Q1 earnings. $48 million in revenues (up about 2%) and a GAAP loss of $1.4 million or $.02 per share. Non-GAAP income was $1 million or $.02 per share. Cash was about $70 million with no debt.

iPASS seems to be successfully transitioning its business from dial-up services to wi-fi software and services, which were 76% of the latest quarters revenues, versus 57% last year.

Trading at 53% of our valuation, with $1.09 per share in cash and shareholders of over 20% of the company screaming for management to sell, this looks like a good time to buy. The 52 week low for iPASS was $1.98 and the high–$5.69.

iPASS trades over 270,000 shares a day, so liquidity is not an issue here.

There are about 64 million fully diluted shares outstanding.

About iPass Inc.

iPass helps enterprises unify the management of remote and mobile connectivity and devices. With iPass software and services, customers can create easy-to-use broadband solutions for their mobile workers, home offices and branch and retail locations, complete with device management, security validation and unified billing. iPass offerings are powered by its leading global virtual network, on-demand management platform, and award-winning client software. The iPass global virtual network unifies hundreds of wireless, broadband and dial-up providers in over 160 countries. Hundreds of Global 2000 companies rely on iPass services, including General Motors, Nokia, and Reuters. Founded in 1996, iPass is headquartered in Redwood Shores, Calif., with offices throughout North America, Europe and Asia.

Up and down, up and down go the markets. This week the markets clawed back some of last weeks losses, with all the major indices up 1.3-3.2%. We were up 2.1% last week.

NASDAQ was up 3.2% last week, the DOW was up 1.3% and the S+P 500 was up 1.8%.

Last week we went 8 stocks up, 6 down.

HPOL, our latest recommendation got nailed right out of the box (mostly late Friday) on news that a mutual fund sold almost 1 million shares last week and was down almost 12%, so we are doubling up this week.

For last week, 2008 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +2.1%,-29.4 and +6.1% respectively. Since inception we are now 21 stocks up and 12 down.

So far in 2008 the DOW is down 4.7%, NASDAQ is down 4.9% and the S+P 500 is down 4.6%. The NASDAQ is still down a 11.8% since October 31, 2007.

The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are both down just about 3.8% this year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 19 stocks that we closed out in 2006, 2007 and 2008 the average gain was 23%.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $9.40 (was $10.65 before double up), Valuation $20-$22
Up $.34 to $10.90.
SPNC announced a new product in early May and a small acquisition ($5 million in annual revenue). Hopefully these small “add-ons” will not distract management from the great opportunity they already have in front of them.
The company has $53.4 million in cash ($1.69 per share), and is trading at about 2.5 times 2008 revenues (net of cash)and is growing about 30% a year.
Now up 16%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.02 (was $3.21 added $10,000, averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.47 (was $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.63, up $.03.
Our valuation is $8.47, so we are trading at 31% of our valuation.
No news.
Now down 13%. BUY

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.14 (was $4.78 before $10,000 adder, $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $11.24 (Was $10.80 $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $3.37, down $.13.
Latest earnings were very good. Stock is down.
Now trading at 30% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.0 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 19%. BUY.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $24.06 (was $24.67, $20.51, $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $9.27 up $.47.
ILOG revised their 2008 guidance down from 20% sales growth and $1-6 million in operating income to double digit sales growth and breakeven operating income. ILOG’s market cap, minus cash is $80 million. This is less than 50% of annual sales, for a software company with 70%+ gross margins.
Cash is $3.84 a share (44% of market cap).
ILOG is trading at 39% of our valuation.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 23%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $6.15 (was $8.38 before $10,000 adder and $8.82 before double-up), Valuation $7.82 (Was 415.51, $17.85 $18.18)
Down $.30 to $2.99.
BDAY pulled their earnings announcement seven weeks ago as they apparently received interest from someone on a buy-out. Were it not for this, we would pack up the truck and sell this one as their struggles are more than we thought (and they thought too).
Trading at 42% of our valuation.
Hold for a while until this “take-over” thing flushes out. We are hoping it happens, but $7 a share looks like the most they could get.
Down 51%. HOLD.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up) NEW Valuation $10.99 (was $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Down $.19 at $6.01.
Earnings out in early May. Sales dropped by 11%, but they still managed to make $.04 per share. Not “barnburing” results by any definition, but still a lot better than last quarter. Accordingly, our valuation rose to $10.99 from $10.28. With all the ruckus noted below–we still like this stock.
Cannell Capital filed a 13D on February 19th, disclosing a 12.9% ownership stake. Cannell is pushing MEDW management to sell the company. Meanwhile, Constellation Software, a Canadian public company that has been on an acquisition binge filed a 13D in April, disclosing a 6.1% ownership in MEDW (499,000 shares). Constellation has $243 million in revenues and is profitable.
In early May, Constellation increased its bank credit line to $105 million from $50 million.
On May 21 Constellation purchased another 586,000 shares of MEDW at prices from $5.43to $5.70 (most at $5.70). So Constellation now owns 1,056,000 shares–13.9%.
Looks like something is going to happen here.
Down 5%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $3.74 (was $7.26 before double up), Valuation $9.90 (was $8.69, $11.51)
Down $.16 to $2.49
No news (SOMETHING must be happening here–but nothing of substance for weeks now).
Down 33%. HOLD

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.38 (Was $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up), NEW Valuation $6.42 (was $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Up $.18 to $1.73.
Earnings out in early May. Nothing exciting unfortunately.
Sales were down to $33 million from $42.7 million last year and $34.6 million last quarter. They lost $5.1 million compared to $5.3 million last year.
For 2008 they lowered their outlook slightly and are projecting revenue of $140-$150 million and EBITDA breakeven to an EBITDA loss of $3 million. But it sounds like this will not happen until the second half of 2008. If they can turn this around-a double or triple from here is possible.
If they can do what they say in 2008, a valuation of close to $8 is possible.
Trading at 25% of our latest valuation
Down 27%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.97 (Was, $10.66, $9.39)
Up $.02 to $4.76.
No news.
Trading at 48% of our valuation.
Up 11%. HOLD (CEO will be selling another 30,000 shares in the first 10 days on June)

Harris Interactive. (HPOL-Recommended 5/25/2008)
Buy Price $2.15, Valuation $5.96
Down $.25 to $1.90.
Apparently a mutual fund dumped a million shares last week–just after we recommended it. We still like the franchise and recommend adding $10,000 to this positiion. New average buy price will be $2.03.
Trading at 32% of our valuation.
Down 12%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

Interestingly, our OB-abies have held up better than the “higher-quality” stocks so far this year. They are down about 2.5% on average, compared to 21% for the stocks above. At least so far. As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.61 (was $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.55, up $.10.
Earnings were great, stock goes down. ARI does little to get any investor attention. Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 3X what it is selling for.
Now down 4%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.93 (Was $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-twice), NEW Valuation $4.00 (was $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.91, up $.08.
Earnings out in early May. Sales weak, but earning were great.
Sales dropped from $14.6 million to $12.8 million. But, net income was $1.005 million compared to a $224,000 loss last year. EPS was $.05 versus a loss of $.02 last year. For the 9 months ended March 31, earnings per share were $.12 (untaxed).
Now down 2%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.31 (Was $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price up 1/2 a penny at $.295. Closed at $.29.
CTI announced earnings in early May. Sales were good, but they had another loss. Sales were up to $5.339 million from $5.054 million. They managed to reduce their loss to $180,000 from $587,000 last year. Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money–$729,000 in the current quarter. Gross margin % rose to 75% from 72%. Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Our valuation rose slightly to $1.38 from $1.31.
Maybe these guys will wake up and create some shareholder value in 2008.
This is still trading at only 21% of our latest valuation.
UP 9%. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up) New Valuation-$2.28 (Was $2.08)
Closed at $.99, up $.12.
Ah, those Chinese stocks. After announcing earnings in mid-May, it took LTUS another week or so to come out and reaffirm that they expect to make at least $13.1 million in earnings this year. On approximately 50 million shares outstanding this is $.26 per share earnings. So we are trading at a little less than 4 times 2008 EPS. 3 new drugs expected to be introduced this year also.
Up 18%. HOLD

HARRIS INTERACTIVE (NASDAQ–HPOL)
Valuation-$5.96
Closing price May 23, 2008-$2.15

With this unbelievably bad market in 2008, we have not recommended anything in a while. We watch maybe 100 stocks that we think might be interesting at any one time. In 2008, these stocks have just been getting cheaper and cheaper. So picking a bottom has been problematic. But we have decided to take the plunge.

This is the venerable Harris polling company, now with online capabilities of course. HPOL reported Q3 2008 (March 31, 2008) on May 2, 2008. They were disappointing, with organic sales down 4%, while acquisition aided total revenues were up 11%. They also had a net loss of $2.1 million compared to a profit of $1.2 million in 2007. Adjusted EBITDA was still positive ($1.6 million).

Despite this lackluster Q3, they are projecting about $240 million in sales for FY 2008 (about $65 million in revenue in Q4) and adjusted EBITDA of $17-19 million for the year.

HPOL has about an equal amount of cash and debt ($31 million).

Trading at 36% of our valuation and less than 50% of sales, this looks like a good time to buy. The 52 week low for HPOL was $1.93 and the high–$5.71. The Harris name alone is a key asset, as the brand is highly recognizable to just about everyone.

HPOL trades over 300,000 shares a day, so liquidity is not an issue here.

There are about 57.7 million fully diluted shares outstanding.

About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom market research. With a long and rich history in multimodal research, powered by our science and technology, we assist clients in achieving business results. Harris Interactive serves clients globally through our North American, European and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms.

The markets gave back last weeks gains–and more, with all the major indices down 3.3-3.9%. We would have been up slightly if it were not for investor disappointment with the earnings reports from LTUS.ob. So we ended down 3.1% for the week.

Mediware has interesting “no news” last week.

NASDAQ was down 3.3% last week, the DOW was down 3.9% and the S+P 500 was down 3.5%.

Last week we went 4 stocks up, 7 down and 2 even.

For last week, 2008 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -3.1%,-31.5 and +4.0% respectively. Since inception we are now 21 stocks up and 11 down.

So far in 2008 the DOW is down 5.9%, NASDAQ is down 7.8% and the S+P 500 is down 6.3%. The NASDAQ is still down a 14.5% since October 31, 2007.

The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are both down just about 7.5% this year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 19 stocks that we closed out in 2006, 2007 and 2008 the average gain was 23%.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $9.40 (was $10.65 before double up), Valuation $20-$22
Down $.01 to $10.56.
SPNC announced a new product in early May and a small acquisition ($5 million in annual revenue). Hopefully these small “add-ons” will not distract management from the great opportunity they already have in front of them.
The company has $53.4 million in cash ($1.69 per share), and is trading at about 2.5 times 2008 revenues (net of cash)and is growing about 30% a year.
Now up 12%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.02 (was $3.21 added $10,000, averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.47 (was $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.60, down $.08.
Our valuation is $8.47, so we are trading at 31% of our valuation.
No news.
Now down 14%. BUY

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.14 (was $4.78 before $10,000 adder, $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $11.24 (Was $10.80 $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $3.50, up $.10.
Latest earnings were very good. Stock is down.
Now trading at 31% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.0 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 15%. BUY.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $24.06 (was $24.67, $20.51, $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $8.80 up $.02.
ILOG revised their 2008 guidance down from 20% sales growth and $1-6 million in operating income to double digit sales growth and breakeven operating income. ILOG’s market cap, minus cash is $80 million. This is less than 50% of annual sales, for a software company with 70%+ gross margins.
Cash is $3.84 a share (44% of market cap).
ILOG is trading at 34% of our valuation.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 27%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $6.15 (was $8.38 before $10,000 adder and $8.82 before double-up), Valuation $7.82 (Was 415.51, $17.85 $18.18)
Down $.01 to $3.29.
BDAY pulled their earnings announcement six weeks ago as they apparently received interest from someone on a buy-out. Were it not for this, we would pack up the truck and sell this one as their struggles are more than we thought (and they thought too).
Trading at 42% of our valuation.
Hold for a while until this “take-over” thing flushes out. We are hoping it happens, but $7 a share looks like the most they could get.
Down 47%. HOLD.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up) NEW Valuation $10.99 (was $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Up $.35 at $6.20.
Earnings out in early May. Sales dropped by 11%, but they still managed to make $.04 per share. Not “barnburing” results by any definition, but still a lot better than last quarter. Accordingly, our valuation rose to $10.99 from $10.28. With all the ruckus noted below–we still like this stock.
Cannell Capital filed a 13D on February 19th, disclosing a 12.9% ownership stake. Cannell is pushing MEDW management to sell the company. Meanwhile, Constellation Software, a Canadian public company that has been on an acquisition binge filed a 13D in April, disclosing a 6.1% ownership in MEDW (499,000 shares). Constellation has $243 million in revenues and is profitable.
In early May, Constellation increased its bank credit line to $105 million from $50 million.
On May 21 Constellation purchased another 586,000 shares of MEDW at prices from $5.43 to $5.70 (most at $5.70). So Constellation now owns 1,056,000 shares–13.9%.
Looks like something is going to happen here.
Down 2%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $3.74 (was $7.26 before double up), Valuation $9.90 (was $8.69, $11.51)
Down $.10 to $2.65
No news.
Down 29%. HOLD

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.38 (Was $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up), NEW Valuation $6.42 (was $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Down $.06 to $1.55.
Earnings out in early May. Nothing exciting unfortunately.
Sales were down to $33 million from $42.7 million last year and $34.6 million last quarter. They lost $5.1 million compared to $5.3 million last year.
For 2008 they lowered their outlook slightly and are projecting revenue of $140-$150 million and EBITDA breakeven to an EBITDA loss of $3 million. But it sounds like this will not happen until the second half of 2008. If they can turn this around-a double or triple from here is possible.
Our valuation fell again to $6.42.
If they can do what they say in 2008, a valuation of close to $8 is possible.
Trading at 25% of our latest valuation
Down 35%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.97 (Was, $10.66, $9.39)
Up $.11 to $4.74.
No news.
Trading at 48% of our valuation.
Up 11%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

Interestingly, our OB-abies have held up better than the “higher-quality” stocks so far this year. They are down about 5.5% on average, compared to 23% for the stocks above. At least so far. As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.61 (was $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.45, unchanged.
Earnings were great, stock goes down. ARI does little to get any investor attention. Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 3X what it is selling for.
Now down 10%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.93 (Was $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-twice), NEW Valuation $4.00 (was $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.83, down $.02.
Earnings out in early May. Sales weak, but earning were great.
Sales dropped from $14.6 million to $12.8 million. But, net income was $1.005 million compared to a $224,000 loss last year. EPS was $.05 versus a loss of $.02 last year. For the 9 months ended March 31, earnings per share were $.12 (untaxed).
Our valuation rose to $4.00 from $3.41.
Now down 11%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.31 (Was $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price unchanged at $.29. Closed at $.25.
CTI announced earnings in early May. Sales were good, but they had another loss. Sales were up to $5.339 million from $5.054 million. They managed to reduce their loss to $180,000 from $587,000 last year. Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money–$729,000 in the current quarter. Gross margin % rose to 75% from 72%. Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Our valuation rose slightly to $1.38 from $1.31.
Maybe these guys will wake up and create some shareholder value in 2008.
This is still trading at only 21% of our latest valuation.
UP 7%. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up) New Valuation-$2.28 (Was $2.08)
Closed at $.87, down $.26.
Ah, those Chinese stocks. LTUS announced luke-warm results last week. Well at least everyone took them that way. Sales only up 41% to $11.7 million, and net income up only 19% to $996,000 or $.02 per share (same as last year–but more shares ourstanding this year.). Q1 is the slowest quarter for many Chinese companies due to the New Year and also some weather issues this year. We have seen this in other Chinese companies. The sticky point for us is the $21 million of receivables on the books. We hope they are good. Receivables went up from 12/31/2007–despite sales dropping from $19 million to $11.7. We are guessing that maybe they collected a bunch after the quarter since they made an initial payment for an asthma drug of almost $3 million, with another $4 million due in the future. This is a 2012 planned launch for this drug–it could be big–but it is far away.
Up 4%. HOLD

The markets all rose last week, with all the major indices up 2-3%. We, on the other hand were down 1.2%.

MIVA, CTIG.ob and AVSO.ob earnings out last week. DWCH current price is stupid and we are adding even more here.

NASDAQ was up 3.4% last week, the DOW was up 1.9% and the S+P 500 was up 2.7%.

Last week we went 6 stocks up, 6 down and 1 even (again).

For last week, 2008 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -1.2%,-28.4 and +7.1% respectively. Since inception we are now 21 stocks up and 11 down.

So far in 2008 the DOW is down 2.1%, NASDAQ is down 4.7% and the S+P 500 is down 2.9%. The NASDAQ is still down a 11.5% since October 31, 2007.

The Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000 are both down just about 2.5% this year.

Since inception we have closed out the following positions:

2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
2007-INFT +11% (Buyout offer)
2007-RITT +62%
2007-MIVA +55%
2007-DTLK +25% (2 weeks)
2007-PDLI + 3%
2007-QADI +25%
2007-CIMT +50%
2007-BDR +19%
2007-LINN.ob -57% (mortgage business bust didn’t help here)
2007-TISA -39% (take some tax loss for 2007 due to disappointing results.
2008-ANGN +26%
2008-OPTO.ob +40% (Buy-out offer)
2008-PDLI +9% (company split, and special dividend)

The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock (unless we double-up–then it is $20,000), less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).

For the 19 stocks that we closed out in 2006, 2007 and 2008 the average gain was 23%.

Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $9.40 (was $10.65 before double up), Valuation $20-$22
Up $.41 to $10.57.
SPNC announced a new product last week and a small acquisition ($5 million in annual revenue). Hopefully these small “add-ons” will not distract management from the great opportunity they already have in front of them.
The company has $53.4 million in cash ($1.69 per share), and is trading at about 2.5 times 2008 revenues (net of cash)and is growing about 30% a year.
Crappy market–and short hackers at work again.
Now up 12%. HOLD.

DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (added $10,000, averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.47 (was $8.47, $10.30, $9.28, $9.20, $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.68, down $.27.
Our valuation is $8.47, so we are trading at 32% of our valuation.
This price is pretty stupid in our opinion–adding another $10,000 here. New avg. buy price will be $3.02
No news last week.
Now down 15%. BUY

Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $4.14 (was $4.78 before $10,000 adder, $6.12 before another $10,000 added, $6.65 before double up), Valuation $11.24 (Was $10.80 $9.20, $8.63, $13.77)
PARL closed at $3.40, up $.13.
Latest earnings were very good. Stock is down.
Now trading at 30% of our valuation.
The new management has 2.0 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 18%. BUY.

ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $12.08 (was $12.92 before another $10,000 added, $13.60 before double-up), Valuation $24.06 (was $24.67, $20.51, $23.22, $20.99, $20.52)
Closed at $8.78 up $.84.
ILOG revised their 2008 guidance down from 20% sales growth and $1-6 million in operating income to double digit sales growth and breakeven operating income. ILOG’s market cap, minus cash is $80 million. This is less than 50% of annual sales, for a software company with 70%+ gross margins.
Cash is $3.84 a share (44% of market cap).
ILOG is trading at 34% of our valuation.
A buy-out is a decent possibility here.
Down 27%. BUY

Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007)
Buy Price $6.15 (was $8.38 before $10,000 adder and $8.82 before double-up), Valuation $7.82 (Was 415.51, $17.85 $18.18)
Up $.16 to $3.30.
BDAY pulled their earnings announcement five weeks ago as they apparently received interest from someone on a buy-out. Were it not for this, we would pack up the truck and sell this one as their struggles are more than we thought (and they thought too).
Trading at 42% of our valuation.
Hold for a while until this “take-over” thing flushes out. We are hoping it happens, but $7 a share looks like the most they could get.
Down 46%. HOLD.

Mediware (MEDW-Recommended 6/4/2007)
Buy Price $6.33, (was $6.52, $6.67 ($10,000 added), $6.98 after double up) NEW Valuation $10.99 (was $10.28, $13.32, $12.89, $13.40)
Down $.22 at $5.85.
Earnings out in early May. Sales dropped by 11%, but they still managed to make $.04 per share. Not “barnburing” results by any definition, but still a lot better than last quarter. Accordingly, our valuation rose to $10.99 from $10.28. With all the ruckus noted below–we still like this stock.
Cannell Capital filed a 13D on February 19th, disclosing a 12.9% ownership stake. Most of this was purchased from Penninsula Capital at $7.03 a share. Cannell is pushing MEDW management to sell the company. Meanwhile, Constellation Software, a Canadian public company that has been on an acquisition binge filed a 13D in April, disclosing a 6.1% ownership in MEDW (499,000 shares). Constellation has $243 million in revenues and is profitable.
In early May, Constellation increased its bank credit line to $105 million from $50 million. Looks like just about enough to swallow MEDW.
Looks like something is going to happen here.
Down 8%. BUY

Candela Corp. (CLZR-Recommended 8/30/2007)
Buy Price $3.74 (was $7.26 before double up), Valuation $9.90 (was $8.69, $11.51)
Down $.21 to $2.75
No news.
Down 27%. HOLD

MIVA. (MIVA-Recommended 10/21/2007)
Buy Price $2.38 (Was $2.62 before another $10,000 and was $3.00 before double up), NEW Valuation $6.42 (was $6.84, $7.58, $7.59)
Down $.01 to $1.61.
Earnings out last week. Nothing exciting unfortunately.
Sales were down to $33 million from $42.7 million last year and $34.6 million last quarter. They lost $5.1 million compared to $5.3 million last year.
For 2008 they lowered their outlook slightly and are projecting revenue of $140-$150 million and EBITDA breakeven to an EBITDA loss of $3 million. But it sounds like this will not happen until the second half of 2008. If they can turn this around-a double or triple from here is possible.
Our valuation fell again to $6.42.
If they can do what they say in 2008, a valuation of close to $8 is possible.
Trading at 25% of our latest valuation
Down 33%. HOLD

Datalink. (DTLK-Recommended 10/31/2007)
Buy Price $4.28, Valuation $9.97 (Was, $10.66, $9.39)
Up $.08 to $4.63.
No news.
Trading at 46% of our valuation.
Up 8%. BUY

OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)

Interestingly, our OB-abies have held up better than the “higher-quality” stocks so far this year. They are down about 2.7% on average, compared to 23% for the stocks above. At least so far. As proven by OPTIO, patience is necessary with these stocks.

ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $1.61 (Was $1.78 before another $10,000 added, was $2.06 before double up), Valuation $5.61 (was $5.71, $5.49, $5.34, $5.03, $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.45, down $.08.
Earnings were great, stock goes down. ARI does little to get any investor attention. Wake up management–you have a great little company here worth 3X what it is selling for.
Now down 10%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.

Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $.93 (Was $.99 and $1.19 before adding $10,000-twice), NEW Valuation $4.00 (was $3.41, $3.05, $2.53, $3.25, $3.29 $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $.85, up $.03.
Earnings out last week. Sales weak, but earning were great.
Sales dropped from $14.6 million to $12.8 million. But, net income was $1.005 million compared to a $224,000 loss last year. EPS was $.05 versus a loss of $.02 last year. Despite this, and some small insider buys, we managed to go up $.03 for the week.
For the 9 months ended March 31, earnings per share were $.12 (untaxed).
Our valuation rose to $4.00 from $3.41.
Now down 9%. BUY.

CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.31 (Was $1.31, $1.38, $1.29, $1.42, $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price unchanged at $.29. Closed at $.25.
CTI announced earnings last week. Sales were good, but they had another loss. Sales were up to $5.339 million from $5.054 million. They managed to reduce their loss to $180,000 from $587,000 last year. Their VOIP business continues to struggle and lose money–$729,000 in the current quarter. Gross margin % rose to 75% from 72%. Still an “undercover” company and stock.
Our valuation rose slightly to $1.38 from $1.31.
Maybe these guys will wake up and create some shareholder value in 2008.
This is still trading at only 21% of our latest valuation.
UP 7%. BUY

Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS.ob-Recommended 12/3/2007)
Buy price $.84 (Was $.95 before $10,000 adder, $1.08 before double-up) New Valuation-$2.28 (Was $2.08)
Closed at $1.13, down $.03.
The stock got up to $1.24 last week before getting hit a bit on Friday. Looking good.
HOLD
Up 35%.